2013 NCAA Tournament

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by raiderD15, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. Tom81

    Tom81 Member

    Jan 25, 2008

    I have the finals being the exact opposite.
    Oh well!
     
  2. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    If it is ucla and fsu in the final, look for a 0-0 tie to be settled in pk's. those teams can play defense like nobody's business!
     
  3. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

    Apr 9, 2008
    Yes, those are the match ups.
    And those two teams in bold are the slight underdogs in the Semifinal matches.
    Anyone can win at this point though, as the Final game could be any combination within these four teams.
    I'd be extremely surprised if there were any blowout matches in this year's College Cup.
     
  4. anthem

    anthem Member

    Nov 26, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I would agree with your assessment. . . What has UCLA given up this year ? 7 goals total ? Both of those teams play defense first and then counter. . Very very strong on defense. . almost impossible to break down in open play. They usually say defense wins championships, so while I'm a wahoo fan, I'm not making any bold predictions because I know and have seen enough soccer to see awesome attacks blunted at all levels by defense. . Soccer is an interesting sport for that exact reason. .

    Neither of those teams will push forward all that much unless they are down. If its even or they are up, they would rather watch paint dry than cross midfield with the ball - ok its not that bad, but those two defenses are stout to say the least. i've seen FSU more than UCLA this year, and I'd hate to try and figure out how to crack those defenses.
     
  5. Romario'sgurl

    Romario'sgurl Member+

    Wakanda FC
    Aug 26, 2000
    Wakanda
    Club:
    FC Ingolstadt 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Ghana
    #655 Romario'sgurl, Dec 1, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2013
    I'd assume that VT is probably the biggest underdog in the bunch. I like their chances because they weren't even suppose to beat SC, right? At this point, what do they have to lose? They might as well keep going and make the final, no? Simplistic thinking, I know but I still think the Lady Hokies are in the best position to "shock".

    What kind of numbers/odds do you have for us, WPS? ;)
     
  6. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

    Apr 9, 2008
    % Odds to win National Championship:
    Virginia - 30.1%
    Florida State - 28.2%
    UCLA - 26.5%
    Virginia Tech - 15.2%

    There is so much equality in the rosters (talent) and coaching among Virginia, FSU, and UCLA.
    There is a bit of a drop-off for V-Tech compared to those other three teams.
    The team that is most likely to do some atmosphere gazing at the College Cup, would be V-Tech.
    They are more likely to be the team that is "happy to be there", while the other 3 will be about business more.
    Virginia Tech could still realistically win this thing. They probably need a break or two to go their way though.
     
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  7. anthem

    anthem Member

    Nov 26, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    you might want to check those rosters - from a strictly say "talent" level in terms of say recruit "stars" (whoch is a muhc larger discussion and can obviously be flawed), - UCLA and FSU are more "loaded" than UVA and VT obviously is lowest of the bunch. . However, the VT coach (chugger adair) has done a dramatic job the last few years. . I think he brought in 6 -8 or so 4* recruits last two years alone. So while they don't have the big name 5* recruits - they are not lacking in athletic level across the team .. . UVA obviously has a few 5* and a bunch of 4* recruits as well, but if you look at the rosters of the teams - UCLA and FSU look "loaded" but this is obviously "on paper".

    In terms of favorites - obviously its a new four team tournament right now, but VT is a 1 see, so all the teams are esentially on a clean slate and all of them deserve to be there.
     
  8. cpthomas

    cpthomas Member+

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An interesting factor is the game location. Ordinarily, this would favor the three ACC schools, since they have played at Wake Med before, and recently. On the other hand, UCLA just played at Fetzer and word has it they are staying in North Carolina rather than going home and then returning. This means they will be practicing somewhere near Wake Med, if not at Wake Med, all week. In effect, now that UCLA has won at Fetzer, their getting a #2 seed may turn out to be to their advantage in the College Cup. It's an interesting turn of events to think about.
     
  9. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    Decimal points on percentages picked out of thin air? That's rich.
     
  10. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    I am a little surprised that they are permitted academically to miss a couple of extra days, even though obviously it makes sense financially and otherwise. But, what's to keep a team from deciding to take more and more time off? The other schools will be in class . Ucla will be together as a team ,resting, training,etc
     
  11. Romario'sgurl

    Romario'sgurl Member+

    Wakanda FC
    Aug 26, 2000
    Wakanda
    Club:
    FC Ingolstadt 04
    Nat'l Team:
    Ghana
    "happy to be there"
    This type of thinking--and I'm not knocking you WPS-- should motivate VT to really give this next match all they've got. Not too many outside of Blacksburg(myself excluded) expect VT to present much of a challenge to FSU. However, from what I've seen via some googling, VT played FSU decently in the last two meetings. By that, I mean FSU didn't wreck VT. That should be somewhat positive for VT. Again, VT is on somewhat of a roll in this tournament, so I don't think one should underestimate the Hokies' chances of reaching the final.
     
  12. cpthomas

    cpthomas Member+

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is not the first time something like this has happened. Typically, the team helps the players make arrangements with their profs to get assignments and do school work while they're on the road. They even may be able to get lecture notes from their profs (or attend lectures on line?). It's probably much more productive academically than spending at least one full day flying cross country to home and then spending another full day flying cross country back to North Carolina. If they flew home, it would be all day today (Sunday); and if they flew back, it would be all day Wednesday (all of the teams must be in NC for practices and media appearances that occur on Thursday), so they're actually missing only two school days.
     
  13. uncchamps2012

    uncchamps2012 Member

    Jul 9, 2011
    I agree that it totally makes sense. Maybe it is because I work for the government because I often assume things that make sense aren't permitted!
     
  14. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

    Apr 9, 2008
    #664 WPS_Movement, Dec 1, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2013
    Oh, I agree with you, I'm just saying, here are each of the four teams reactions right before their end of season banquet if they lose in this College Cup Semifinal.

    Virginia: "Disappointment. We were #1 all year, undefeated, and then lost to our in-state rival in the ACC tournament. Now we lose in the Semifinal in the College Cup, when we were the favorites. Our real dream was to win the National Title, Uggghhhhh."

    Florida State: "We've been to the College Cup so many times, and still can't get it done. Without UNC here, this was our opportunity. Notre Dame has been a thorn and they weren't here either. This was our best chance, Uggghhhhh."

    UCLA: "We wanted to be the 3rd Pac 12 university to win the National Title. No other conference has done that. They were counting on us. This is frustrating, we get to the College Cup, and always seem to lose in the Semifinal. Ugggghhhhh."

    Virginia Tech: "Honestly, it's disappointing that we lost. But even more honestly, nobody thought we'd get this far before the season started. We would have taken this scenario if we were asked about this in preseason. We are proud of our accomplishments, and this has still been a great achievement to elevate our program to higher levels than we were at before this season. But it still would have been nice to win it all. But no Ugggghhhhh on this one. We're still happy with our season, and we put forth great effort against our ACC opponent (Florida State) in that Semifinal match. They always seem to beat us in close matches, but they deserve to move on, and we're building our program to an elite level program now like FSU has had for years now."
     
  15. MRAD12

    MRAD12 Member+

    Jun 10, 2004
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Don't forget much has changed in recent years. This is the age of the internet. These kids carry their laptops with them. They can do their classes and homework on line now.
     
  16. Nacional Tijuana

    Nacional Tijuana BigSoccer Supporter

    May 6, 2003
    San Diego, Calif.
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
  17. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

    Apr 9, 2008
    Damn right she'll be okay.
    She's still got two years left in college, so she still has a lot of soccer fun ahead of her. :)
     
  18. Nacional Tijuana

    Nacional Tijuana BigSoccer Supporter

    May 6, 2003
    San Diego, Calif.
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just hadn't heard anything since maybe an hour after the incident. Figured it would be OK, but that just about confirms it.
     
  19. WPS_Movement

    WPS_Movement Member+

    Apr 9, 2008
    Actually, your post is the first time I saw her quote.
     
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  20. wsoc2008

    wsoc2008 Member

    Aug 27, 2008
    [quote="I'd assume that VT is probably the biggest underdog in the bunch. I like their chances because they weren't even suppose to beat SC, right?".

    Not sure how you assume VT was not supposed to beat SC, when VT was ranked 1 and SC was ranked 4 in their bracket. Lots of folks here talk up SC, but they lost as predicted, despite all the hype.
     
  21. UNC4EVER

    UNC4EVER Member

    Sep 27, 2007
    It is gonna be an exciting weekend of soccer! Anything can happen on the day, but in my opinion the very scrappy and motivated VT team is a significant underdog against FSU. Having just watched the UCLA team play UNC, they are going to be a very interesting match-up against UVA. I would encourage UVA fans to check out Dorrance's post-match comments, as they ring true. UCLA will be attempting to press defensively full field, and break out some very quick runners on counters. I think it is a very open question whether UVA's composure will stand up to this improved UCLA system. From my perspective as a fan, I think the most interesting matches of this season have been/would be: UNC v UCLA; UVA v UCLA; and UCLA v FSU (maybe I'm just jaded because I've seen so much great ACC soccer this season?).

    If UCLA can really Show Up on Friday, I might give them a slight edge over UVA. If it is a UCLA v FSU final, then wow, I haven't got a clue-- could be anyone's game!
     
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  22. ref17

    ref17 Member

    Nov 10, 2006
    how about who has the best gks? i have seen wys make some interesting flubs in the last 2 tournaments. virginia always has one of the best in the nation when talking keepers. this ucla gk comes highly touted. dont know the vt gal.
     
  23. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The expected win percentages for the semifinals - based on the bastardized conversion from the Massey Ratings (games through end of regular season only):


    team
    rating team rating rating difference expected win pct
    Florida St 2029 Virginia Tech 1936 93 0.651
    Virginia 2094 UCLA 1978 116 0.689


    Florida State and Virginia are distinct favorites but according to the ratings, neither a Virginia Tech or UCLA upset would be earth-shattering.
     
  24. cpthomas

    cpthomas Member+

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Bennett has FSU as a 1 goal favorite over VT. He has Virginia and UCLA "Pickum."
     
  25. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As always, my posting of Elo-ish "predictions" should be accompanied by several caveats. The ratings I use are based only on regular season games (including conference tournaments) and doesn't include playoff games. There's no accounting for injuries and, to a large extent, may not factor in which teams are hot or have, in the eyes of perceptive observers, gelled or started reaching their potential towards the end of the season. This provides an opportunity for perceptive observers to improve on the predictive capabilities of the ratings.

    On the one hand, I'm not bothered by this. Prediction is only a secondary concern of mine. To the extent that the ratings' ability to accurately predict playoff outcomes is affected by injuries, late season form or a perceptive observation about style matchups, I would say my main concern is whether the ratings provide a fair assessment of a team's record for the purposes of selecting teams for the tournament and their seeding.

    On the other hand, if the ratings are a good basis for selecting the bracket, you would expect it to work fairly well in terms of prediction. In fact I would say it would be fairly difficult for most people to consistently out-predict a well-designed rating system by a significant margin. In any given year, however, with enough people submitting their brackets in a prediction contest, of course there will be many who will better the ratings. Just by having a number of people voting for their favorite teams the law of averages says a few of these teams will pull off a couple upsets, resulting in those fans having the edge over the system.
     

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