2013 Gold Cup Prediction Contest? -[R]

Okay - NP.

 

To confirm, what scoring format are we using? From what I can tell, we've used 2 for the correct result, and 1 for each team's score, for a total of 4 possible points per group stage game. What format will we use for the knockout round?

Edit: I looked earlier in the thread and it appears I'm wrong, but I saw several possible scoring formats. Could someone confirm which one we are using?

 

Here's an example with a sample score of 3-1:

3-1: 4 points
1 goal too high or 1 goal too low for one team and correct for the other team: 3 points, this would be for 4-1, 2-1, 3-0, or 3-2
1 goal too high for both teams or 1 goal too low for both teams: 3 points, this would be for 2-0 or 4-2
Any other predicted score with the correct result: 2 points

The maximum amount of scores that can yield 3 points is six (like in the above example) but that's only for certain games. For example, in a 2-2 draw the only predictions worth 3 points would be for 1-1 and 3-3 because if you were 1 goal too high or 1 goal too low for one team and correct for the other team you would have the wrong outcome.

 

And what about for the knockout round? Are those games worth more points? And do we get points for predicting the group standings correctly?

 

For the knockout rounds I evaluate score predictions on the same 4, 3, 2, or 0 scale but when combining the different parts into an overall number out of 100 the knockout round score predictions are worth 50% more per game than the Group Stage score predictions. For the standings predictions I add up how many points you were off for the four teams in each group and you get points on a scale from 0 to 10 for each group with the worst prediction getting 0 and the best prediction getting 10. There are also knockout round bracket predictions that must be made before the Quarterfinals start.
I typed a lot of this in Post 6 of this topic.

 

Do actual rankings count any for standings, or only points? For instance, I had USA winning Group C with 7 points and Costa Rica finishing second, also with 7 points but a worse goal difference. If Costa Rica and the USA both finish with 7 points, but Costa Rica has the better goal difference and wins the group, do I get points off for that?

 

Rankings don't count because it's more complicated with two out of three third place teams advancing than it is for WCQs.

 

Here are the score prediction results out of a possible 48 points (including all games so far) with your score, correct result predictions, and exact score predictions in that order:

Tied 1. Sebasour: 26, 8, 3 (exact score for HON-ES)
Tied 1. gakoch: 26, 9, 0
3. blacksun: 23, 8, 3 (exact score for MEX-CAN)
Tied 4. EvanJ: 22, 9, 0
Tied 4. Catracho_Azul: 22, 8, 0
Tied 4. zenryan: 22, 8, 1 (exact score for MEX-CAN)
Tied 4. kman1456: 22, 8, 2 (exact score for HON-ES)
8. edwin_f_sorto: 20, 8, 1
9. jagum: 17, 6, 1 (exact score for HON-ES)

The averages are 22.22 points, exactly 8 correct results, and 1.22 exact scores.

If you want your scores for just the second game for each team (games played July 11, 12, and 13), take the above and subtract what I posted in Post 23. The exact score predictions listed above only include the second game for each team, so it could say a person has 2 or 3 exact score predictions but only list 0 or 1 game (the other games are listed in Post 23).

 

For the knockout stage, if we think a game will go to a penalty shootout what should we predict? Should we just say Panama 2-1 El Salvador (or whatever the matchup is) if we think it will end 1-1 with Panama winning on penalties? Or should we say 1-1 and Panama wins on penalties? And if we get the tie score right but the shootout winner wrong do we get points for picking the draw?

 

That's something I always forget about. For score predictions, which will be worth 2% of the whole competition per game, predict the score after regulation. For bracket predictions, which are worth 10 2/3% of the whole competition per round (each Semifinal is worth double each Quarterfinal and the Final is worth double each Semifinal), whether you picked the team that advanced is all that matters. It will be possible to have an exact score prediction and still get the outcome wrong if a game goes overtime, and it will also be possible to get the outcome correct but not have a correct result prediction. If you think a game will go past regulation, post a score after regulation and a final outcome, but there is no difference between predicting a team to win in overtime and predicting that team to win in penalty kicks.

All the bracket predictions must be made before the first Quarterfinal game, while the score predictions can be made until the individual game starts. You can make score predictions for the Semifinals and Final before the Quarterfinals if you want, and these will be valid only if you predicted both teams in the game. If you do that and predict one or both teams in the game wrong, you can go back and make another score prediction for that game. You can make the score predictions one round at a time if you want.

 

Knockout stage predictions:

Mexico 2-0 Trinidad and Tobago
Panama 3-0 Cuba
Honduras 1-1 Costa Rica (Costa Rica wins 2-1 after extra time)
United States 3-1 El Salvador

Semifinals:

Mexico 1-0 Panama
United States 2-1 Costa Rica

Final:

United States 2-0 Mexico

Note: I will be on vacation the next few days. In theory I will have internet access at my hotel, but according to online reviews, the connection doesn't always work. Therefore, if I do not post anything else, keep the score predictions for the semifinals if Mexico and the United States advance, even if Panama and Honduras don't. If one of them loses in the quarterfinals, I will have to find some way to get on the internet, so hopefully it works on my hotel. But unless I post otherwise (which I will if I need to and can) assume I predict Mexico over Cuba or the USA over Honduras by the same score as I predicted them above, because it's better than nothing. I will be home before the final.

 

There were two exact score predictions for the third game for each team:

jagum predicted USA 1-0 Costa Rica
Sebasour predicted Panama 1-1 Canada

Here are the score prediction results out of a possible 72 points with your score, correct result predictions, and exact score predictions in that order:

1. blacksun: 37, 11, 3
2. Sebasour: 36, 11, 4
3. gakoch: 31, 11, 0
Tied 4. edwin_f_sorto: 30, 12, 1
Tied 4. kman1456: 30, 11, 2
6. EvanJ: 28, 12, 0
Tied 7. jagum: 26, 9, 2
Tied 7. zenryan: 26, 10, 1
9. Catracho_Azul: 24, 9, 0

The averages were 29.78 points, 10.67 correct results, and 1.44 exact scores.

Here is how many points everybody was off in the standings in the form Group A, Group B, Group C and the lower numbers are best:

EvanJ: 9, 8, 0
jagum: 10, 5, 3
Sebasour: 9, 6, 3
edwin_f_sorto: 9, 8, 3
Catracho_Azul: 9, 7, 9
gakoch: 12, 7, 9
zenryan: 9, 8, 3
kman1456: 10, 11, 6
blacksun: 13, 7, 0

Here are the score predictions and standings predictions combined out of a possible 54 points:

1. Sebasour: 37.00
2. EvanJ: 34.33
3. jagum: 32.83
4. edwin_f_sorto: 31.67
5. zenryan: 30.33
6. blacksun: 29.00
7. Catracho_Azul: 24.67
8. kman1456: 20.83
9. gakoch: 19.50

 

Knockout stage predictions:

Mexico 2-0 Trinidad and Tobago
Panama 2-1 Cuba
Honduras 0-2 Costa Rica
United States 3-0 El Salvador

Semifinals:

Mexico 1-1 Panama (Mexico wins 2-1 AET)
United States 1-0 Costa Rica

Final:

United States 2-1 Mexico

 

I used a formula to rank the remaining eight teams and then used Gold Cups 2009 and 2011 to predict how many combined goals there should be and the goal margin given the gap between two teams.

Mexico 4-0 Trinidad and Tobago
Panama 2-0 Cuba
Honduras 1-1 Costa Rica (Costa Rica advances in extra time or penalty kicks)
USA 4-0 El Salvador

Mexico 2-1 Panama
USA 2-1 Costa Rica

USA 2-1 Mexico

The rankings I used had USA and Mexico about even. I would pick Mexico to win if they were at home.

 

Go big or go home:

Mexico 3-1 Trinidad and Tobago
Panama 4-0 Cuba
Honduras 1-0 Costa Rica
USA 2-0 El Salvador

Semifinals:

Mexico 1-2 Panama
United States 1-0 Honduras

Final:

United States 1-2 Panama

 

Quarter-finals :

Mexico 1 Trinidad Tobago 1 (Mexico wins AET)
Panama 0 Cuba 0 ( Panama wins AET)
Honduras 1 Costa Rica 1 ( Costa Rica advances in PKs)
USA 0 El Salvador 0 ( USA advances in PKs)

 

Mexico 0 Trinidad 1
Panama 2 Cuba 0
Honduras 0 Costa Rica 2
USA 2 El Salvador 0

Panama 1 Trinidad 0
USA 2 Costa Rica 1

USA 2 Panama 0

 

You need to predict the whole bracket at once, but you can pick scores later.

 

Semifinals :

Panama 0 Mexico 1
USA 3 Costa Rica 1

Final :
USA 2 Mexico 1

 

I'm going on a limb here: As there is always a first for everything (ES FAN MOTTO)

Quarter Finals

Mexico 1 Trinidad 1 (Mexico win in PK)
Panama 2 Cuba 0
Honduras 1 Costa Rica 1 (CR win in Extra time)
USA 2 El Salvador 3

Semi Finals
Panama 1 Mexico 1 (Mex win in PK)
El Salvador 2 Costa Rica 1

Finals
El Salvador 2 Mexico 1

 

These are just game predictions, as the bracket deadline has since passed:
MEX 2-0 TRI
USA 3-0 SLV
HON 1-1 CRC (HON win on penalties)

MEX 1-1 PAN (PAN win on penalties)
USA 2-0 HON

USA 2-1 PAN

 

Here are the score prediction results for the Quarterfinals out of a possible 16 points with your score, correct result predictions, and exact score predictions in that order:

1. Sebasour: 11, 4, 1 (exact score of Honduras-Costa Rica)
2. Catracho_Azul: 10, 4, 1 (exact score of Honduras-Costa Rica)
Tied 3. EvanJ: 7, 3, 0
Tied 3. gakoch: 7, 3, 0
Tied 3. blacksun: 7, 3, 0
Tied 3. IASocFan: 7, 3 ,0
7. kman1456: 5, 2, 0
8. zenryan: 4, 2, 0
9. edwin_f_sorto: 2, 1, 0
10. jagum: 0, 0, 0

The averages were exactly 6 points, 2.5 correct result predictions, and 0.2 exact score predictions.

Here are the overall standings out of a possible 72.67 points (a * means the person didn't predict the whole competition):

1. Sebasour: 53.17
2. EvanJ: 45.83
3. jagum: 40.83
4. blacksun: 40.50
5. Catracho_Azul: 40.33
6. edwin_f_sorto: 38.00
7. zenryan: 37.67
8. gakoch: 31.00
9. kman1456: 23.33*
10. IASocFan: 11.50*