Well I'm bored so I wanted to see if anyone was interested in a Gold Cup prediction contest? The scoring system I was thinking of using is... For the Group Stage... 1 point for correctly predicting one teams score 3 points for correctly predicting a result 5 points for correctly predicting a result and score For the Knockout Stage... 5 points for every correctly picked Quarter-Final participant 10 points for every correctly picked Semi-Final participant 15 points for every correctly picked Final participant 20 points for picking the champ I was hoping to get at the very least 8 people and more would perfectly fine. So if you're interested just put your name on the list and if you have any better ideas on how to distribute points feel free to comment 1. Sebsasour 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Have you considered using @EvanJ's system from the WCQ prediction contest for the group stage? It seems to work pretty well. It has both a per-game component and a standings component Obviously the standings component would need to be changed because there are only four teams instead of 6 and 2 or 3 go through instead of 3 or 4. Maybe something like this? Team in correct position: 2.5 points Your predicted first place team finishes second: 1.5 points Your predicted second place team finishes first: 1.5 points Your predicted third place team finishes fourth: 1.5 points Your predicted fourth place team finishes third: 1.5 points
For the standings, I'll post how I evaluated the Semifinals Group Stage standings predictions (although that advanced two teams per group and the Gold Cup advances two or three): "Standings predictions for the Semifinals: 14% (2% per group for number of points off in the standings and 2/3 of a % for each correct final standings position or 1/3 of a % for being one position off on a team's final standings position and correctly predicting whether or not that team would reach the Hexagonal)" Also note that for the WCQs I'm combining multiple rounds into a final score out of 100 and different components are graded on different scales. The part with 2.5, 1.5, or 1.0 points is out of 100 (and is awarded once, after the Hexagonal), but the Hexagonal score prediction component gets divided by 6, so an Hexagonal exact score (4 points) is worth 2/3 (but can be obtained 30 times, once per Hexagonal game). Maybe later I'll make a plan for how I would evaluate Gold Cup predictions.
Since the groups advance unequal numbers of teams, I recommend evaluating score predictions, how many Quarterfinalists you predicted correctly, and how many points you were off on the standings for each group, but not evaluating your standings rankings.
Here's my proposal. If people want to vote between my proposal and somebody else's that's fine. Standings predictions: 30% (10% per group) Group Stage score predictions: 24% (1 1/3 % per game) Knockout Rounds score predictions: 14% (2% per game) Knockout rounds bracket predictions: 32% (2 2/3 % for each Quarterfinal game, 5 1/3 % for each Semifinal game, and 10 2/3 % for the Final) For the standings predictions, I would add up how many points off everybody was for the four teams in Group A combined (and do the same thing separately for Group B and Group C). Then I would take everybody's points off, which you want to be low, and subtract however many points off the best person was (Step 1). After that I would take the highest number and subtract everybody's points off from that so that the highest number would be from the best predictions (Step 2). Then I would take everybody's result of Step 2, divide by the highest value (Step 3) and multiply by 10 (Step 4). Here's a simple example. Best predictions: 2 points off for the four teams combined Worst predictions: 12 points off for the four teams combined X = a person's points off Step 1: X-2 Step 2: Largest value of X-2 (12 in this case) - (X-2) (define this answer as Y) Step 3: Y/highest value of Y (define this answer as Z) Step 4: Score = 10Z For this example, your score would be 12 - however many points you were off. Depending on the values, this could be a simple decimal like 1.5 or a repeating decimal. Just like for WCQs, here is how I would evaluate the score predictions: Exact score = 4 points Correct result, correct score for one team, and 1 goal off on one team in either direction = 3 points 1 goal too high on both teams or 1 goal too low on both teams = 3 points Any other correct result = 2 points Wrong result = 0 points All the Group Stage score predictions would have to be made before the first game of the Gold Cup. The bracket predictions would need to be made before the first Quarterfinal game, with score predictions for the Quarterfinals required and for later rounds if you want. The Knockout Rounds score predictions could be made at any time as long as the teams in the game were already known or correctly predicted by you. If you predict the score for a Semifinal or Final game when you make your bracket predictions and you are wrong about one or both teams in the game, you can go back and make score predictions for the actual matchup at any time until the game starts.
Here are my Group Stage predictions with goal differential in parenthesis: Group A: 1. Mexico: 9 (+10) 2. Panama: 6 (+1) 3. Canada: 3 (-4) 4. Martinique: 0 (-7) Group B: 1. Honduras: 9 (+3) 2. El Salvador: 2 (2 goals scored, 3 goals allowed, -1) 3. Haiti: 2 (1 goals scored, 2 goals allowed, -1) 4. Trinidad and Tobago: 2 (0 goals scored, 1 goal allowed, -1) Group C: 1. USA: 9 (+12) 2. Costa Rica: 6 (+7) 3. Cuba: 3 (-8) 4. Belize: 0 (-11) I used the FIFA, ELO, and ESPN SPI ratings. I used the combined goals and the average margin of victory (0 for a draw) in the last two Gold Cups). I don't actually expect Groups A and C to be as unbalanced as I predicted. July 7: Canada 1-0 Martinique Mexico 3-1 Panama July 8: El Salvador 0-0 Trinidad & Tobago Haiti 0-1 Honduras July 9: Costa Rica 4-0 Cuba Belize 0-5 USA July 11: Panama 3-1 Martinique Mexico 5-1 Canada July 12: Trinidad and Tobago 0-0 Haiti Honduras 2-1 El Salvador July 13: USA 5-0 Cuba Costa Rica 5-0 Belize July 14: Martinique 0-4 Mexico Panama 2-1 Canada July 15: El Salvador 1-1 Haiti Honduras 1-0 Trinidad & Tobago July 16: Cuba 1-0 Belize USA 3-1 Costa Rica This would result in the following bracket: Panama-El Salvador Mexico-Cuba Honduras-Costa Rica USA-Canada With the Semifinals being the winners of the first two games playing each other and the winners of the last two games playing each other.
Hello , here my predictions : A ) Martinique 0 Canada 4 Mexico 2 Panama 0 Panama 1 Martinique 1 Canada 1 Mexico 5 Martinique 1 Mexico 2 Canada 1 Panama 6 B) Trinidad/Tobago 0 El Salvador 4 Haiti 0 Honduras 1 Haiti 0 Trinidad/Tobago 0 Honduras 1 El Salvador 0 El Salvador 1 Haiti 2 Trinidad/Tobago 0 Honduras 0 C) Cuba 0 Costa Rica 2 USA 2 Belize 0 Cuba 1 USA 1 Costa Rica 2 Belize 1 Belize 1 Cuba 3 USA 1 Costa Rica 0 Group stage positions: A) 1. Mexico 9 pts (+7) 2. Panama 4 pts ( +3) 3. Canada 3 pts (-5) 4. Martinique 1 pt ( -5) B) 1. Honduras 7 pts ( + 2) 2. Haiti 4 pts ( 0 ) 3. El Salvador 3 pts ( + 3 ) 4. Trinidad/Tobago 2 pts ( - 4 ) C) 1. USA 7 pts ( + 3 ) 2. Costa Rica 6 pts ( + 2 ) 3. Cuba 4 pts ( 0 ) 4. Belize 0 pts ( -5 ) QF Panama - Haiti Mexico - Cuba Honduras- Costa Rica USA - El Salvador
Group A: Canada 1 Martinique 0 Mexico 0 Panama 0 Panama 2 Martinique 0 Mexico 3 Canada 1 Martinique 0 Mexico 3 Canada 0 Panama 0 Mexico 7 points Panama 5 points Canada 4 points Martinique 0 points ------------------------------- Group B: El Salvador 2 Trinidad 1 Haiti 0 Honduras 2 Trinidad 2 Haiti 1 Honduras 1 El Salvador 0 El Salvador 0 Haiti 0 Honduras 3 Trinidad 1 Honduras 9 points El Salvador 4 points Trinidad 3 points Haiti 1 point -------------------------------------- Group C: Costa Rica 3 Cuba 0 Belize 0 USA 5 USA 4 Cuba 0 Costa Rica 3 Belize 0 Cuba 1 Belize 1 USA 2 Costa Rica 1 USA 9 points Costa Rica 6 points Cuba 1 point Belize 1 point --------------------------------- Panama - El Salvador Mexico - Trinidad Honduras - Costa Rica USA - Canada
Group A Canada 3 Martinique 0 Mexico 1 Panama 1 Panama 4 Martinique 2 Mexico 4 Canada 1 Martinique 1 Mexico 6 Canada 2 Panama 2 Mexico 7 (+8) Panama 5 (+2) Canada 4 (0) Martinique 0 (-10) Group B El Salvador 4 Trinidad & Tobago 1 Haiti 0 Honduras 2 Trinidad & Tobago 1 Haiti 3 Honduras 1 El Salvador 1 El Salvador 2 Haiti 0 Honduras 4 Trinidad & Tobago 2 El Salvador 7 (+5) Honduras 7 (+4) Haiti 3 (-2) Trinidad & Tobago 0 (-7) Group C Costa Rica 2 Cuba 1 Belize 0 USA 4 USA 5 Cuba 2 Costa Rica 3 Belize 0 Cuba 2 Belize 2 USA 2 Costa Rica 1 USA 9 (+8) Costa Rica 6 (+3) Cuba 1 (-4) Belize 1 (-7) Panama vs Honduras Mexico vs Haiti El Salvador vs Costa Rica USA vs Canada First time predicting here.
July 7: Canada 1-0 Martinique Mexico 2-1 Panama July 8: El Salvador 3-2 Trinidad & Tobago Haiti 1-2 Honduras July 9: Costa Rica 4-0 Cuba Belize 0-5 USA July 11: Panama 3-1 Martinique Mexico 3-1 Canada July 12: Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 Haiti Honduras 2-2 El Salvador July 13: USA 4-0 Cuba Costa Rica 5-0 Belize July 14: Martinique 0-4 Mexico Panama 2-0 Canada July 15: El Salvador 1-1 Haiti Honduras 2-0 Trinidad & Tobago July 16: Cuba 1-1 Belize USA 1-2 Costa Rica Group A: 1. Mexico: 9 (+7) 2. Panama: 6 (+4) 3. Canada: 3 (-3) 4. Martinique: 0 (-7) Group B: 1. Honduras: 7 (+3) 2. El Salvador: 5 (+1) 3. Haiti: 4 (0) 4. Trinidad and Tobago: 0 (-4) Group C: 1. Costa Rica: 9 (+9) 2. USA: 6 (+8) 3. Cuba: 1 (-8) 4. Belize: 1 (-10) Quarter-Finals: Panama vs. El Salvador Mexico vs Haiti Honduras vs. USA Costa Rica vs. Canada
I'm in. Group A: Canada 3-0 Martinique Mexico 1-0 Panama Panama 2-0 Martinique Mexico 1-0 Canada Martinique 0-5 Mexico Panama 1-1 Canada Standings Mexico 9 points, +7 Canada 4 points, +2 Panama 4 points, +1 Martinique 0 points, -10 Group B: El Salvador 1-1 Trinidad and Tobago Haiti 1-2 Honduras Trinidad and Tobago 1-0 Haiti Honduras 2-0 El Salvador El Salvador 0-0 Haiti Honduras 1-0 Trinidad and Tobago Standings Honduras 9 points, +4 Trinidad and Tobago 4 points, 0 El Salvador 2 points, -2 Haiti 1 point, -2 Group C: Costa Rica 2-0 Cuba Belize 0-4 United States United States 3-1 Cuba Costa Rica 2-0 Belize Cuba 0-1 Belize United States 1-1 Costa Rica Standings: United States 7 points, +6 Costa Rica 7 points, +4 Belize 3 points, -5 Cuba 0 points, -5 Standings of third place teams: Panama Belize El Salvador Quarterfinals would be: Canada - Trinidad and Tobago Mexico - Belize Honduras - Costa Rica United States - Panama
Group A: Canada 4-0 Martinique Mexico 2-1 Panama Panama 5-0 Martinique Mexico 2-0 Canada Martinique 0-4 Mexico Panama 1-0 Canada 1.Mexico 9pts +7 2.Panama 6pts +5 3.Canada 3pts +1 4. Martinique 0pts -13 Group B El Salvador 2-1 Trinidad and Tobago Haiti 1-3 Honduras Trinidad and Tobago 1-1 Haiti Honduras 2-1 El Salvador El Salvador 0-1 Haiti Honduras 1-0 Trinidad and Tobago 1.Hoduras 9pts +4 2.Haiti 4pts -1 3.El Salvador 3pts -1 4.Trinidad and Tobago 1pt -2 Group C: Costa Rica 3-1Cuba Belize 0-4 United States United States 3-0 Cuba Costa Rica 4-0 Belize Cuba 1-0 Belize United States 1-1 Costa Rica 1.USA 7pts +7 2.Costa Rica 7pts +6 3.Cuba 3pts -4 4.Belize 0pts -9 Quarterfinals Panama-Haiti Mexico-El Salvador Honduras-Costa Rica USA-Canada
Winners are in bold Group A CAN 2-1 MTQ MEX 0-0 PAN PAN 3-1 MTQ MEX 1-1 CAN MTQ 0-4 MEX PAN 1-1 CAN MEX 5 (+4) PAN 5 (+2) CAN 5 (+1) MTQ 0 (-9) Group B SLV 2-2 TRI HON 1-1 HAI TRI 1-2 HAI HON 1-0 SLV SLV 1-2 HAI HON 2-0 TRI HON 7 (+3) HAI 7 (+2) SLV 1 (-2) TRI 1 (-3) Group C CRC 4-0 CUB BLZ 0-3 USA USA 5-0 CUB CRC 3-1 BLZ CUB 0-2 BLZ USA 2-1 CRC USA 9 (+9) CRC 6 (+5) BLZ 3 (-3) CUB 0 (-11)
Group A: Canada 2-1 Martinique Mexico 2-0 Panama Panama 1-1 Martinique Mexico 2-0 Canada Martinique 0-3 Mexico Panama 1-1 Canada 1.Mexico 9pts +7GD 2. Canada 4pts -1GD 2.Panama 2pts -2GD (2 GS) 4. Martinique 1pts -4GD Group B El Salvador 2-2 Trinidad and Tobago Haiti 0-2 Honduras Trinidad and Tobago 1-1 Haiti Honduras 2-0 El Salvador El Salvador 2-1 Haiti Honduras 3-1 Trinidad and Tobago 1.Hoduras 9pts +6GD 2.El Salvador 4pts -1GD 3.Trinidad and Tobago 2pt -2GD (4 GS) 4.Haiti 1pts -3GD Group C: Costa Rica 2-1 Cuba Belize 0-3 United States United States 2-0 Cuba Costa Rica 4-1 Belize Cuba 2-1 Belize United States 2-1 Costa Rica 1.USA 9pts +6GD 2.Costa Rica 6pts +3GD 3.Cuba 3pts -2GD 4.Belize 0pts -7GD Quarterfinals Canada-El Salvador Mexico-Cuba Honduras-Costa Rica USA-Trinidad and Tobago
Nine people made predictions. Here are the score prediction results out of a possible 24 points with your score, correct result predictions, and exact score predictions in that order: 1. blacksun: 12-4-2 (exact scores for ES-T&T and HAI-HON) Tied 2. EvanJ: 11-4-0 Tied 2. Sebasour: 11-3-2 (exact scores for HAI-HON and CR-CUB) Tied 2. gakoch: 11-4-0 Tied 5. Catracho_Azul: 9-3-0 Tied 5. kman1456: 9-3-1 (exact score for ES-T&T) Tied 7. jagum: 8-3-0 Tied 7. edwin_f_sorto: 8-3-1 (exact score for HAI:HON) Tied 7. zenryan: 8-3-0 The averages were 9.67 points, 3.33 correct results, and 0.67 exact scores.
Damn - forgot to pick the first games July 11: Panama 2-0 Martinique Mexico 0-0 Canada July 12: Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 Haiti Honduras 2-1 El Salvador July 13: USA 8-0 Cuba Costa Rica 3-0 Belize July 14: Martinique 0-1 Mexico Panama 1-2 Canada July 15: El Salvador 1-1 Haiti Honduras 1-1 Trinidad & Tobago July 16: Cuba 0-1 Belize USA 2-0 Costa Rica