2012 MLS Magic and Tragic Numbers

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by aletheist, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    jinx, regression to the mean, tomato, tomahto
     
  2. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    With that Philly goal, we can note that San Jose's magic number for CCL is down to 2.
     
  3. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    After the win on Oct-3, Phily is now just 1 point away from 34 & escaping a sub-1.00 season.

    Meanwhile, Chivas will have to win 2 out of their final 3 games to avoid it.

    Rest of the teams, please catch-up, please catch-up... :barefoot:
     
    Kappa74 repped this.
  4. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    new york can clinch on saturday with a win, and dropped points by dc or a houston loss. Same for Chicago.
     
  5. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    that clearly means NY and CHI will tie on Saturday.

    at which point, a SKC win over CMB on Sunday would give SKC the E1 seed (and CHI and NY would both be "in" ahead of CMB, if CMB does not make up their Goals For disadvantage over the final two weeks).
     
  6. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Chivas could end the season last in GF and GA.

    So far they have scored 21 goals in 31 games for 0.68 average last in the league and have been scored on 53 times for a 1.71 average 18th (only Toronto is worse with a 1.90 average).

    They'll join 1999 NY/NJ Metrostars, 2001 Tampa Bay Mutiny, 2003 Dallas Burn and 2007 Toronto FC.
     
  7. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lowest GFA in league history is 0.70, 2010 DC United scored 21 goals in 30 games. Chivas stands at 0.68 with 21 goals scored in 31 games. So if Chivas doesn't score more than two goals in there last three games they'll set a new record for lowest GFA in league history.
     
  8. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here are the updated numbers; corrections are always welcome.
    Code:
    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   TN   MN   T4   T3   T2   1P   SS
      1   SKC   59    2   65   **   **   **    1    1    4   12
      2   CHI   56    2   62   **   **    1    4    5   10   --
      3   DCU   54    2   60   12    2    3    6    9   12   --
      4   NYR   53    2   59   11    3    4    8   10   13   --
      5   HOU   50    2   56    8    6   10   11   13   --   --
      6   CLB   49    2   55    6    8   11   12   --   --   --
      7   MON   41    2   47   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
      8   PHL   36    3   45   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
      9   NER   29    2   35   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
     10   TOR   22    2   28   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Rank Team  Pts   GR   MP   TN   MN   T4   T3   T2   1P   SS
      1   SJE   64    2   70   **   **   **   **   **   **    2
      2   RSL   55    2   61   **   **   **    2    7   --   --
      3   SEA   52    3   61   **   **   **    5   10   --   --
      4   LAG   50    2   56   **   **   **   10   12   --   --
      5   VAN   42    2   48   11    3   --   --   --   --   --
      6   FCD   38    2   44    3   11   --   --   --   --   --
      7   COL   31    2   37   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
      8   POR   30    2   36   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
      9   CHV   29    2   35   --   --   --   --   --   --   --
    
     
  9. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    After another win on Oct-6, Phily has escaped a sub-1.00 season.

    Chivas & N.E. will have to win out their final 2 games to avoid it.

    Rest of the teams, please catch-up, please catch-up... :barefoot:
     
  10. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Chivas could be on course to set a new record for the worst GD of all-time as well, being at -32 through Oct-7.

    The list of current "leaders" is:
    1. 2001 Tampa Bay: -36 (over 27 games)​
    2. 2005 Chivas: -36 (over 32 games)​
    3. 2005 R.S.L.: -35 (over 32 games)​
    4. 1999 N.Y. : -32 (over 32 games)​
    5. 2003 Dallas: -29 (over 30 games)​
     
  11. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    '99 NY was actually a -34.

    Seeing how Chivas is playing the Rapids and then Dallas again to close out, I have a feeling they won't set a new record. Anything could happen, but I don't see the Rapids putting many goals past Chivas, and Dallas may be out of playoff contention by the time they play Chivas.
     
  12. OleGunnar20

    OleGunnar20 Member+

    Dec 7, 2009
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    they could set a record for being the first team to be outscored by a single player? not sure if that has happened before but Chivas USA has 22 goals and Wondolowski has 25.
     
    henryo repped this.
  13. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    Correct. Lassiter, John, Diallo, and Ruiz would have been the only candidates, and in those years, the fewest goals scored by any team was 31 (DC, in '02, when Ruiz scored 24). All other years, it wasn't even close.
     
  14. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Trust that the "-34" GD was derived from the 1999 Regular Season Standings on MLSsoccer.com.
    Code:
    #    Club        PTS    GP    W    L    T    GF    GA    GD
    6    MetroStars    15    32    7    25    0    35    69    -34

    The version archived on Wikipedia would be a more accurate reflection of the truth:
    Code:
    Eastern    P    W    (sw)    (sl)    L    GF    GA    GD    Pts
    MetroStars    32    7    <3    5>    25    32    64    -32    15

    This is exactly the misleading part about the "Official Standings" published, where the "phantom goals" awarded for Shoot-out Wins were integrated into the Scorelines and Standings (GF, GA & GD).
     
    edwardgr and RapidStorm repped this.
  15. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    Well, now that's obnoxious. Good catch.

    I've seen phantom double counting of own goals on the site, too. I don't know if they've fixed that problem or not yet.
     
  16. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Scenarios for 10/17:
    • RSL clinches a top-3 finish with a win at Seattle.
     
  17. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Eastern Conference scenarios for 10/20 (corrections welcome):
    • SKC clinches a top-3 spot with a CHI loss or draw at NER, or a DCU loss or draw vs CLB.
    • SKC clinches a top-2 spot with a win or draw at NYR.
    • SKC clinches 1st place with a win at NYR plus a CHI loss or draw at NER.
    • CHI clinches a top-4 spot with a draw at NER, or a HOU loss or draw vs PHL.
    • CHI clinches a top-3 spot with a win at NER plus a NYR loss or draw vs SKC, or a draw at NER plus a NYR loss vs SKC.
    • CHI clinches a top-2 spot with a win at NER plus a DCU loss or draw vs CLB plus a NYR loss or draw vs SKC.
    • DCU clinches a playoff spot with a draw vs CLB, or a HOU loss vs PHL.
    • DCU clinches a top-4 spot with a win vs CLB, or a draw vs CLB plus a HOU draw vs PHL.
    • DCU clinches a top-3 spot with a win vs CLB plus a NYR loss vs SKC.
    • NYR clinches a playoff spot with a win vs SKC, or a CLB loss at DCU, or a draw vs SKC plus (a HOU loss vs PHL or a CLB draw at DCU).
    • NYR clinches a top-4 spot with a win vs SKC plus a HOU loss or draw vs PHL, or a draw vs SKC plus a HOU loss vs PHL plus a CLB loss or draw at DCU.
    • HOU clinches a playoff spot with a win vs PHL plus a CLB loss at DCU.
    • CLB is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss at DCU plus a HOU win vs PHL.
     
    ImaPuppy and henryo repped this.
  18. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Western Conference scenarios for 10/21 (corrections welcome):
    • SJE clinches the Supporters' Shield with a win vs LAG or an SKC loss or draw at NYR.
    • SJE effectively clinches the Supporters' Shield with a draw vs LAG due to massive lead in goals scored over SKC.
    • RSL clinches a top-3 finish with an LAG loss or draw at SJE.
    • SEA clinches a top-3 finish with a win vs FCD plus an LAG loss or draw at SJE, or a draw vs FCD plus an LAG loss at SJE.
    • VAN clinches a playoff spot with a win vs POR, or a draw vs POR plus an FCD draw at SEA, or an FCD loss at SEA.
    • FCD is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss at SEA, or a draw at SEA plus a VAN draw vs POR, or a VAN win vs POR.
     
    blacksun, ColinMcCarthy and henryo repped this.
  19. aletheist

    aletheist Member+

    Nov 17, 2010
    Olathe, Kansas, USA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    SKC also clinches 1st place with a draw at NYR plus a CHI loss at NER plus a DCU loss or draw vs CLB.
     
  20. Aero

    Aero Member

    Feb 7, 2005
    SLC, Ut
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I believe that RSL also clinches a top 3 spot with a Seattle loss as well. That means the best they could do would be tie RSL on points and in order to do that, they would have to defeat LA which would mean that LA could not catch RSL. Or if LA beat Seattle (and SJ) they catch RSL, but Seattle doesn't. So, a loss or tie by LA or a loss by Seattle guarantees RSL a top 3 finish.
     
    aletheist repped this.
  21. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not technically correct. If Seattle beats FCD and loses to LA, LA beats SJE and Seattle, and RSL loses to Vancouver, then all three end up tied at 56 points and LA gets 2nd place, Seattle 3rd place, and RSL 4th place thanks to the Goals For tie breaker. Unless, of course RSL's loss is an epic 4-5 loss. :)
     
  22. Aero

    Aero Member

    Feb 7, 2005
    SLC, Ut
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess I should have been more specific because I was talking about scenarios for the upcoming slate of games on Sat/Sun Oct 20/21 not for all of Seattle's remaining games when I said if they lose. If Seattle loses this weekend or LA ties or loses any of their remaining games then RSL is guaranteed a top 3 finish.
     
  23. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

    Interestingly, DC United has less chance of making the playoffs than New York, because DC's got a six-pointer left. Of course, both of them look golden right now, but weirder things have happened.
     
  24. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Poor Crew / Dallas @ 26% / 5% respectively...
     
  25. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Through Oct-7, the "injustice gap" has narrowed down to 7 points (E6 CLB's 49 vs W5 VAN's 42), let's see how it goes this week...
     

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