Mixed results on the week: Malaga 2-0 Porto Bordeaux 2-3 Benfica The upshot: we're now comfortably in sixth with a chance to gain more points. Unlikely that we'll catch up to France barring a flame out by PSG and a miracle run by Benfica, and also unlikely that anyone will catch up from behind, though interestingly Turkey seems the likeliest candidate with Galatasaray and Fenerbahce still alive out of only five teams. Our point total is a respectable but not world-beating 10.583, about equally place between France ahead and Ukraine behind. One especially good thing about Benfica's zany win at Bordeaux was that it not only gained us points but stopped France from getting them, so closes the gap on them a bit.
Do you see a possibility of Benfica being in Pot 1 next year? I was looking at the most recent table and it seems we should easily pass Lyon, and from there hope that 3 of the teams ahead of don't get into the CL. And it seems like Valencia, Arsenal or Inter might be those 3 teams.
Yeah it looks really unlikely that Benfica could pass all four of the teams ahead of them (one of which is Porto) for the 8th spot. Lyon looks likely to be passed (and conceivably Atletico if Benfica wins it all), but still Benfica would likely need three epic fails among the seeded teams to get in there. So I wouldn't put any money on it. The real action will be when Benfica finally sheds its putrescent score from 08/09 for the 14/15 season. Then (as long as they do respectably next year) they'll likely be among the top 8 teams for a seed, regardless of other teams' results.
Nice win from Benfica yesterday at da Luz, 3-1 over Newcastle. Recovered from early goal down to grab a pretty solid lead in the tie. By no means over yet though--next week they have to go all the way up to St James Park in England, and the away goal could be tricky. Stay tuned. In terms of UEFA points, this was a pretty good overall week. Russia's only remaining team lost, France's only tied, so we gained ground on our closest rivals. There's now a plausible way to edge ahead of France: If we could beat Newcastle again next week, and Barca takes care of business at home against PSG, we'd be fractions of a point behind France on the year. Any points in the semis would then put us ahead, if marginally. This is all moot in a sense bc when the disastrous 08/09 season drops out of the UEFA rankings next year and we make up a TON of ground on France. But it would be good to be ahead of them this year too.
Newcastle 1-1 Benfica Whew. This result sends SLB through 4-2 on aggregate but there were some nervy moments at the end when for about 20min a Newcastle goal would have given them an away-goals lead in the tie. But with the late goal Benfica is on to the semis with an opponent to be determined (could be Chelsea, Basel, or Fenerbahce). As for UEFA points, this win gives Portugal 11.250 on the year, now .5 back from France. This means Benfica will have to get at least four more points to leapfrog the frogs. They can't do it unless they get to the final. A win and draw in the semis would put them even with France, while two wins would put them a shade ahead. All told, the difference between us and France is fractional and thus not that important in the grand scheme. But it's shaped up to be a respectable year despite not quite meeting early expectations--we'll likely end up just short of where we were last year.
We've hopped Atletico for 10th. As I've thought for a while, if 2 of the teams ahead of us do not make the CL next year, are we not in Pot 1? Because it looks as if either Chelsea or Arsenal will not make it and Inter is having problems as well.
Yeah, I think it's possible that Benfica could end up there now. Inter is way off the pace for a CL spot in Italy, while Arsenal is in a dogfight with Chelsea and Tottenham for a spot in England. Plus there's always the chance that one of the other teams will not get an automatic spot and then blow it in the prelims.
Europa League semis: 4/25 Fenerbahce-Benfica 5/2 Benfica-Fenerbahce Clubs met once almost 40 years ago, so Benfica's 7-1 agg win then doesn't mean much. I don't honestly know much about the Turkish side but playing in Istanbul is never going to be easy. Good luck to Benfica!
EL semis: Fenerbahce 1-0 Benfica Not a great result, not a disaster. Would have been nice to get at least a draw or an away goal or two, but this is a readily surmountable deficit, and Benfica have been very strong at home in Europe this year. Let's hope they get it done in the return leg!
Benfica 3-1 Fenerbahce Cardozo puts Benfica in the Europa League final! First final appearance for Benfica in Europe since 1990, but third Portuguese team in Europa League final in three years. Win points + bonus puts us dead even in fifth with France on 11.75 points for the year: http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2013.html We can obviously better that and take sole possession of fifth with a win/tie in the final (tie = extra time regardless of outcome, I think) but regardless we're now ahead of France on overall UEFA points for the five-year combined country ranking that actually determines number of teams in Europe: http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2013.html Final is against Chelsea on May 15 in Amsterdam. Good luck to Benfica!
Actually, thanks to their EL run, Benfica will be a top seed in the CL next season! They are #9 now, but Inter won't qualify for the CL so that puts Benfica and Porto in the top 8.
Actually, they still may not. If Borussia wins the CL, we lose the final, and everyone ahead of us qualifies we'll just have missed it since Borussia will become a top seed. If we win the final and Borussia wins we'd jump Porto and they'd be out of luck
Interesting that CL winners are guaranteed a top seed--that could complicate the story and certainly provides a reason to root against Benfica. But even if Borussia wins, Benfica and Porto could still get top seeds if one of the teams ahead of them only earns a CL qualifying spot and then fails at that stage. This is currently a meaningful risk for Arsenal, who are at best going to get only the fourth spot in England. As for whether Benfica would jump Porto with a win, I'm not so sure. Benfica currently has 102.833, while Porto has 104.833. They'll get the same number of country points for a Benfica win, obviously, but I thought Benfica would get only 2 if they beat Chelsea. Or are there bonus points for winning the final?
This seems strange but according to the godhead of UEFA ranking information, Burt Kassies, there are no bonus points for winning the final, though there are bonus points for getting to the final: http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/calc.html Someone tell me if I'm reading this wrong. If not, that means Benfica would get two points from the final, which would put them dead even with Porto, down to the thousandth of a point. Wild!
Well ladies and gents, another UEFA season is in the books (for Portugal anyway) and with Benfica's last-gasp loss to Chelsea in the Europa League final, their long streak of final game losses in Euro finals remains intact and nothing changes points-wise from before. If Munich beats Dortmund, then both Porto and Benfica will be Pot 1 teams in the next CL. Moreover, when the 2014 UEFA season starts, Portugal will be less than a point behind Italy for fourth overall, with totally reasonable chance to pass them in the aggregate standings by the end of the year. Thanks largely to Benfica's great Europa League run it turned out to be a good year. Looking forward to the next one!
Estoril and Sp. Braga with good chances of advancing to the group phase, meeting weaker teams ( on paper ) for the 13-14 Europa League play-offs. Pandurii (Roménia) - SC BRAGA (Portugal) ESTORIL (Portugal) - FC Pasching (Áustria)
Potes Bayern Munique, Ale 146,922 (detentor do título) FC Barcelona, Esp 157,605 Chelsea, Ing 137,592 Real Madrid, Esp 136,605 Manchester United, Ing 130,592 Arsenal, Ing 113,592 FC PORTO, POR 104,833 BENFICA, POR 102,833 Pote 2 Atlético de Madrid, Esp 99,605 Shakhtar Donetsk, Ucr 94,951 AC Milan, Ita 93,829 Schalke 04, Ale 84,922 Marselha, Fra 78,800 CSKA Moscovo, Rus 77,766 Paris Saint-Germain, Fra 71,800 Juventus, Ita 70,829 Pote 3 Zenit São Petersburgo, Rus 70,766 Manchester City, Ing 70,592 Ajax, Hol 64,945 Borussia Dortmund, Ale 61,922 Basileia, Sui 59,785 Olympiacos, Gre 57,800 Galatasaray, Tur 54,400 Bayer Leverkusen, Ale 53,922 Pote 4 FC Copenhaga, Din 47,140 Nápoles, Ita 46,829 Anderlecht, Bel 44,880 Celtic, Esc 37,538 Steaua Bucareste, Rom 35,604 Viktoria Plzen, Che 28,745 Real Sociedad, Esp 17,605 Áustria Viena, Aut 16,575 CL pots. Avoid 4/5 teams and both Porto/Benfica(if they get their **** together) are in a strong position to advance.
Started the 13'14 season thread: https://www.bigsoccer.com/community/threads/2013-2014-portugal-uefa-coefficient-watch.1993131/