I think A&M has a chance with the Committee of sneaking in as well. I don't think they should but I see that as possible. Direct comparisons with Oklahoma St are interesting and show the difficulties of making a clear distinction between teams - even where there is a head-to-head comparison as there is here. Against common opponents, OK State went 8-0-1 vs A&M going 7-1-1. Texas A&M clearly has an excellent win over North Carolina but also picked up 3 other losses - to good teams, mind you, but still you have to factor them in (I'm not even including the loss to Duke here): UC Irvine, Florida and Tennessee. I don't know how you do it rationally except using an Elo-type system. These are teams in a low 1700 to high 1700 range. The 8th highest rated team in Massey has a rating over 1850. So a team rated 1850 should, roughly speaking, have a (.667) win pct over a set of teams in mid1700 territory. So, compared to OK St, to offset those 3 extra losses in nonconference play, Texas A&M has to have 6 wins over similar teams or something equivalent. Obviously the win over UNC helps, being a higher rated team (but this isn't the UNC team of years past either). And the tie and win (played at home and on neutral field) against OK State also helps a lot. But I think it shouldn't come as a surprise that as far as the Massey ratings go, A&M falls short with a rating of 1834 (in AJ numbers) while OK State is at 1900 while the 7th, 8th and 9th teams range from 1870 to 1883. 35 to 50 points isn't a huge gap by any means so I think it's fair to look at some of the "Secondary Criteria" that the Committee uses.Obviously, A&M is a very good team (no surprise to anyone) But I don't see enough there to overturn the ratings difference. (I'm being a little sloppy and hasty in my analysis, I admit).
Can anyone tell me if Milwaukee is hosting and if so who are the other two teams in the bracket? I know they play ISU first...
Milwaukee hosts the first round. Duke is scheduled to host rounds 2 and 3. Milwaukee, if they go through will play the winner of Tennessee/Ohio St. I think I didn't screw that up. Bracket on www.ncaa.com
Some juicy first round matches... Texas vs. South Carolina La Salle vs. Maryland Illinois vs. Notre Dame West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech LSU vs. Texas A&M Dayton vs. Louisville North Carolina vs. William & Mary San Diego vs. UC Irvine
add: Illinois St vs Milwaukee Miami vs Alabama (NC vs W&M isn't that close from a ratings standpoint)
so what "bubble teams" ended up making it in? I've been looking at rpis and stuff for a while now and sort of confused about the bubble, who was in it, and who got in/didn't from it... any help would be greatly appreciated!
Bubble teams selected Alabama (41) California (40) Portland (48) Notre Dame (42) Georgia (44) Ohio State (50) Washington State (52) Texas (51) Bubble teams not selected Georgetown (43) BYU (55) North Carolina State (45) Massachusetts (47) Richmond (49) Central Michigan (53) Stephen F Austin (46)
Depends. NC should win that game but of the seeded teams I think only Texas A&M has a tougher matchup on paper (LSU), though Pepperdine-Long Beach State falls into a similar category. W&M and LBSU are two teams which probably could have avoided playing a seed if not for geographic proximity, not saying they should win but definitely keeping an eye on these. I think in one non-mathematic poll NC is ranked 12 and W&M 20? Also keeping an eye on Oregon St.-Portland just to see if Portland plays like they deserved a bid or not - and do Santa Clara play all their games at Buck Shaw? Probably should have realized that prior to now if that is the case.
I didn't know UK was in the RPI top 25. They did a lot of struggling throughout the season, and no one was talking about them being in the tournament, so it caught me by surprise. So did Alabama getting in..the SEC just didn't seem that strong this year. Guess you answered the question. UK/WSU is going to be a fun matchup for first round.
for what it's worth in the Massey ratings Kentucky was a bubble team with a rating of 1683 and #40 in the list. But I think a good case could be made for their selection. I just don't agree with the favorable seeding that the SEC received.
It's true that some seeds, even lower seeds, got much easier first rounds. That's the Committee for you. #3 seeds followed by their opponents' Massey rating (converted to AJ scale): Auburn vs Utah St (1610) Texas A&M vs LSU (1693) UNC vs W&M (1687) Pepperdine vs Long Beach St (1753) #4 seeds: Boston College vs Marist (1418) Memphis vs UT Martin (1420) Penn St vs Army (1474) Tennessee vs Ohio St (1669) LSU and W&M, with a rating 200 points higher than Army, would be expected to beat Army about (.800) of the time. add - But maybe I should put that Pepperdine / Long Beach St match with LB's rating (1753) in bold?!
I think Tennessee getting a seed was pretty heinous, especially looking at some of the teams that were overlooked.
I'd argue that their first round match is tougher than their potential second round match since Illinois State has been killing teams as of late and already beat Milwaukee a few weeks ago, 3-1.
I'm guessing beating just one team in the uRPI Top 85 all season probably had something to do with it.
I don't get it. I wonder how far back you have to go to see a ranked team with such a low RPI? If they are going to ignore the lack of results for teams like Memphis (2 wins over top 40 teams?) why don't they do the same for Santa Clara or Baylor? Unofficial aRPI - results against top 25 URPI teams 5 Memphis - none <---- not bypassed 15 Baylor - L A&M(11), L UK(24), L Ok. St(7) 17 West Virginia - L Virginia(4), L Penn St.(13), W Marquette(23) 18 Santa Clara - T UC Irvine(22), L Stanford(2), W Pepperdine(9) 19 Illinois - L Pepperdine(9), L Penn St.(13), W Penn St.(13) 20 Milwaukee - L Marquette(23) 21 UC Irvine - W A&M(11), T Santa Clara(19), L Stanford(2) 22 Dayton - W UK(24) 23 Marquette - L FSU(6), W Milwaukee(18), L West Virginia(15) 24 Tennessee - L UCLA(8), W A&M(11), W UF(10), L UK(24), W Auburn(17), W UK(24), L Auburn(17) 25 UK - W Baylor(14), L Dayton(20), L Auburn(17), W Tennessee(25), L Tennessee(25) 26 Maryland - T Stanford(2), L Virginia(4), L BC(16), T WF(3), W FSU(6), L Duke(1), W UNC(12), L Virginia(4) If they are going to bypass all of the teams in front of Tennessee, why stop? Why not continue to Maryland. They had a 1-1-2 record against #1 seeds. Just for the sake of completeness... kolabear's ELo 13 Illinois 14 Santa Clara 15 Marquette 16 WI Milwaukee 18 West Virginia 19 Maryland 20 Baylor 22 UC Irvine 23 Oregon St 24 Long Beach St 25 South Carolina 26 San Diego 27 Virginia Tech 28 Tennessee