2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket

West Virginia gets nothing for being the Big East Champion? No Big East teams worthy of a seed? hmmm. or was that a joke with Baylor?

 

9-16 are "seeds" only on paper. To host the 2nd weekend, a 1- or 2-seed has to be eliminated in the 1st round. Highly unlikely. The Commies will fix 9-16 and other unranked match-ups so that travel will be minimized.

You could seed the SWAC champion to replace Baylor. IT WON'T MATTER. Do you know why? Read the 1st two sentences on the 1st para.

I'd like to see you experts/critics post your own once in a while.

 

cachundo you lost me. old, unexpert here. and penn state just lost in ot.
what will that do to seeding? getting interesting.

 

Oklahoma State just lost to TAMU as well.

 

9to16 still matter but not nearly as much as in past (because almost impossible for them to host past the 1st round). But still matters because seeds can't face each other until 3rd round (round of 16). Also difference between #9 team and #16 can be significant - the top couple seeds shouldn't have to face them until later and potentially gives teams with #2 seeds in their bracket an advantage they shouldn't have over the #1 seeds in the brackets.

But the Committee will mess it up somehow for sure.

 

A prediction.

1 - Stanford, Wake Forest, Duke, Oklahoma State
2 - Virginia, Memphis, Penn St., UCLA
3 - Pepperdine, UNC, Florida State, West Virginia
4 - Texas A&M, Boston College, Florida, Santa Clara

 

I like this, but would tweak it for my own prediction. PSU's loss today drops them to a 3 seed. Florida State moves up to 2. Santa Clara falls out of a seed and Auburn moves in with its SEC championship win over Florida.

1 - Stanford, Wake Forest, Duke, Oklahoma State
2 - Virginia, Memphis, Florida State, UCLA
3 - Pepperdine, UNC, Penn State, West Virginia
4 - Texas A&M, Boston College, Florida, Auburn

 

Can anyone explain to me how Top Drawer Soccer has Georgetown ranked the number 7 team in the nation???? What are they smoking over there? Georgetown's probably not even getting into the tournament.

 

Because they're TopDrawer. Seriously. I've got my field of sixty-four picks up on AWK. Of course I did put NC State and Richmond in the field, so I might be the one getting mocked tomorrow afternoon.

 

TopDrawerSoccer is a joke -- plain and simple. Both in their player and team rankings.

 

when are the brackets released? is it on tv or online? apologies if this has been already discussed

 

According to the NCAA website... selection show is...

Division I Women's Soccer 4:30 p.m. Nov. 7

They have NOT updated the page for a link to the bracket or a streamed version of the selection show (if it is going to be streamed).

 

Using the results of top 40 wins and the unofficial ARPI...

#1 seeds - (1) Duke, (2) Stanford, (3) Wake, (6) FSU
#2 seeds - (4) Virginia, (8) Florida, (9) UCLA , (7) Oklahoma St.
#3 seeds - (11) Texas A&M, (5) Memphis, (13) Auburn, (12) North Carolina
#4 seeds - (10) Pepperdine, (14) Penn St., (17) West Virginia, (18) Santa Clara

 

So it's not going to be televised this year?

 

It will be streaming on NCAA.com

http://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule


But the website says it starts at 3:30pm ET??? Everywhere else says 4:30. What a mess...

 

For comparison here is the new Massey ratings (top 60 teams), crudely converted into the old Albyn Jones ratings scale.


1 Stanford 2095
2 Duke 1947
3 UCLA 1914
4 Wake Forest 1901
5 Oklahoma St 1900
6 Penn St 1894
7 Florida St 1883
8 Virginia 1877
9 Memphis 1870
10 North Carolina 1859
11 Pepperdine 1854
12 Texas A&M 1834
13 Illinois 1834
14 Santa Clara 1813
15 Marquette 1810
16 WI Milwaukee 1789
17 Boston College 1778
18 West Virginia 1774
19 Maryland 1764
20 Baylor 1763
21 Florida 1761
22 UC Irvine 1757
23 Oregon St 1755
24 Long Beach St 1753
25 South Carolina 1750
26 San Diego 1743
27 Virginia Tech 1741
28 Tennessee 1738
29 Auburn 1732
30 Michigan St 1720
31 Dayton 1720
32 Washington St 1717
33 California 1711
34 Iowa 1710
35 Notre Dame 1696
36 LSU 1693
37 Miami FL 1693
38 Boston Univ 1691
39 BYU 1691
40 Kentucky 1683
41 William & Mary 1681
42 Louisville 1679
43 Georgia 1672
44 Texas 1672
45 Kansas 1671
46 Ohio St 1669
47 Georgetown 1668
48 Wisconsin 1662
49 Missouri 1661
50 UCF 1661
51 New Mexico 1659
52 Portland 1650
53 NC State 1647
54 Minnesota 1644
55 Alabama 1625
56 La Salle 1625
57 Penn 1623
58 C Michigan 1616
59 Nebraska 1610
60 Utah St 1610

In the Albyn Jones scale, a team rated 100 points higher than another would have an expected winning percentage of .667 (ignoring homefield).

100 pt differential: .667 expected win pct (2 to 1 win ratio)
200 pt differential: .800 expected win pct (4 to 1 win ratio)
300 pt differential: .889 expected win pct (8 to 1 win ratio)
400 pt differential: .941 expected win pct (16 to 1 win ratio)

homefield advantage normally between 50 and 60 rating points

 

Hi All,

I'm new to the forum. I've been searching today to see predictions of where my kid's team would be placed. I appreciate AWK big time, as it must be a lot of work! I also appreciate TopDrawer, even though some of their lists are quite strange, because it can certainly be argued that East Coast bias exists on some sites, and TopDrawer presents a different opinion. Come on, teams with 3-6 losses being considered for 1 or 2 seeds?

 

That's interesting. I used a combo of the ARPI and results against Top 75 teams in the bracket to formulate my seeds. Well, and along with a little geographic meddling in a few areas to ease travel. Will love to see the committee make heads or tails of six second weekend sites on the east coast though.

 

Welcome!

In short, its not just about wins and losses. You have to have played good teams throughout the year to be deserving of a seed. There are quite a few teams that have only 1 or two losses, but they haven't played a challenging schedule.

 

Quality wins over teams "already in" helps a lot too....

 

By the way, I think I'll mention here my concept of "protective seeding" which the Committee should have the option of using. In this case, my example is seeding Memphis in the #11 (traditionally counted) spot.

It's hard to assess how good Memphis is. They have an almost unblemished record: one tie, same as Stanford. We know their opposition hasn't been as good as Stanford so we have fair reason to think they aren't on Stanford's level (or Duke's for that matter) but it's just hard to say with these nearly perfect record. That's why we hate records like that.

If there is a reasonable chance that they really are one of the top 2 or 3 teams, then there's a case to use "protective seeding". By placing them #11, they would be slated to play #6 in the round of 16 and #3 in the quarterfinals. That way they wouldn't be playing #1 or #2 in those earlier rounds.

Of course this involves measurements of uncertainty that are foreign concepts to the RPI. But in other statistical systems (such as Elo ratings), it should be possible to distinguish some individual ratings for which there is a larger expected margin of error than for other teams. (Some of you may remember that Albyn Jones even published a "Standard Error" for each team in his ratings).

 

I think A&M might sneak into a #2 seed after winning the Big 12 tourney. They have beaten OSU head to head (1-0-1) and have several quality wins this year, including playing one of the nation's toughest schedules. The Big 12 is the #2 rated RPI conference this year and the selection committee definitely looks at that as evidenced by the ACC getting so many top seeds every year by being the #1 RPI conference. Florida did beat A&M head to head, however, they finished #5 in the SEC and didn't win the conference tourney either. The selection committee has put an emphasis on winning your confernce tourney over the years too. Oklahoma St. could be in trouble because they played a very weak schedule and have wins over Baylor and San Diego and that's about it. I think the #1's and #2's could be:

1- Stanford, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia
2- Florida State, UCLA, Memphis, Texas A&M

 

Unreal to not have OK State as one of the Top 8 teams.

Anyone know where we can find the bracket when it's been announced??

 

http://www.ncaa.com/sports/soccer-women/d1