The first time I read Outliers, I thought "Nah, in soccer it's probably different when you look at the absolute top players of a nation: the national team." But in this discussion we're having, it's actually quite interesting to see if it is true. Let's look at the rosters published on ussoccer.com: Jan/Feb/Mar --- 3 / 12 = 25% Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr --- 4 / 12 = 33.3% Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr/May/Jun --- 6/12 = 50% u23 jfm 8 / 35 = 22.8% (-2.2) jfma 9 / 35 = 25.7% (-7.6) u20 jfm 10/ 32 = 31.3% (+6.3) jfma 13/ 32 = 40.6% (+7.6) u18 jfm 7 / 16 = 43.8% (+18.8) jfma 10/ 16 = 62.5% (+29.2) u17 jfm 10/ 21 = 47.6% (+22.6) jfma 12/ 21 = 57.1% (+23.8) u15 jfm 16/ 36 = 44.4% (+19.4) (8 born in Jan) jfma 20/ 36 = 55.5% (+22.2) USMNT jfm 7/ 21 = 33.3% (+8.3) jfma 9/ 21 = 42.8% (+9.5) jfmamj 16/ 21 = 76.2% (+26.2)
--------SHT----SOG---CNR----FL------GL---- SLO-----14/11--7/5---9/5----10/15---2/3 FRANCE--14/5---6/2---4/3----10/8----1/0 ECUADOR 9/22---4/8---5/10---19/12---1/0 HON-----13/11--6/6---4/5----16/18---0/1 BELGIUM 13/6---5/2---5/3----13/11---1/0 CRC-----6/13---5/4---1/4----27/12---1/0 MEXICO--7/6----1/3---4/2----16/8----1/1 Spain---20/6---8/1---3/2----9/11----4/0 Prgy----5/13---3/3---2/3----18/8----1/0 Arg-----13/7---6/4---6/2----9/12----1/1 Chile---9/7----3/4---0/2----9/18----1/1 SAfrica-8/5----4/4---11/1---9/11----0/1 Col-----4/4----2/2---1/2----15/14---0/0 Pol-----8/17---7/5---3/5----14/9----2/2 The time difference isn't much when one takes into account the discrete nature of international football. And South Africa(52 on the elo) is a 'gimmie', even in SA. 50th ranked Poland in the US should also have been a gimmie. Considering Klinsmann is emphasizing building a system over short term results, is playing on the road, and hasn't had dempsey and donovan the record compares favorably.
It's one of the very few games against an elite squad in which the US looked like a well organized team that knew what the hell it was doing. The team wasn't even bunkering. Typically the US is chasing the game and is scrambling not to get run out of the park. The last two matches of the Confed had that 'Miracle on grass' feel that accompanies strong US performances in such circumstances. The lack of chances in the France game could have been addressed by personnel adjustments.
Unless I missed subtle sarcasm: more exposure to (international) scouts and good looking on the résumé. I don't think anyone said anything about not wanting to win. There is the experience of playing with and against the best players around the nation and globe, and being coached by the best coaches, and performing under more pressure (representing your nation for one). This of course could mean anything: if those "major clubs" play 'kick and rush' moving through those ranks doesn't mean much if the kind of talent the national team is looking for has to be of a different kind. Again that depends on the actual experience of those "three to six games". Besides I highly doubt your claim of "[only] three to six games" to be true. After fact checking that number: Sixteen games in 2010. http://www.ussoccer.com/Teams/Youth/US-Under20-Men/Schedule-Results/2010.aspx
Not really. Players get added and dropped as the cycle moves on. The team at the start of the '07 GC. 1-Tim Howard; 2- Frankie Hejduk, 22-Oguchi Onyewu, 3-Carlos Bocanegra (capt.), 13-Jonathan Bornstein; 6-Michael Bradley, 5-Benny Feilhaber (12-Jay DeMerit, 81), 10-Landon Donovan, 7-DaMarcus Beasley; 20-Taylor Twellman (14-Steve Ralston, 71), 8-Clint Dempsey (9-Eddie Johnson, 61) Subs not used: 4-Jonathan Spector, 11-Brian Ching, 18-Kasey Keller, 19-Ricardo Clark At the start of the '10 WC. USA: 1-Tim Howard; 6-Steve Cherundolo, 15-Jay DeMerit, 5-Oguchi Onyewu, 3-Carlos Bocanegra (capt.); 10-Landon Donovan,13 -Ricardo Clark, 4-Michael Bradley, 8-Clint Dempsey; 20-Robbie Findley (14-Edson Buddle, 77), 17-Jozy Altidore (11-Stuart Holden, 86) Subs not used: 2-Jonathan Spector, 7-DaMarcus Beasley, 9-Herculez Gomez, 12-Jonathan Bornstein, 16-Jose Torres, 18-Brad Guzan, 19-Maurice Edu, 21-Clarence Goodson, 22-Benny Feilhaber, 23-Marcus Hahnemann 6 changes. We aren't even in month six of the Klinsmann era as the '07 GC team was of the Bradley era.
That's a nice list, however it's almost meaningless in soccer. Here's why: http://www.bundesliga.de/en/liga/matches/2011/index.php Schalke - Nurnberg: click "Details", look at the Team statistics and the Player statistics...
Pick a stat and show that it's meaningless. That is, show that a team that does well in that stat is no more likely to win than a team that does badly in it. That would be interesting. Likewise, it would be interesting if you could show the opposite. Finding one game with a lopsided score in which two teams are close statistically doesn't show much.
The example tells us that statistics like 'shots', 'shots on goal', 'corners', 'fouls', etc. do not have any meaning. They don't tell the story of a game. PS "close statistically"? Please reexamine the stats of that game.
It's one thing not to have meaning. It's another to not tell the story of every game. (I'm not saying that the stats have meaning or that they aren't part of the story of Schalke/Nürnberg.)
The World Cup is 3 group games and then up to four more games if you go all the way. That's seven at most. Qualifying would add a maximum of five games to that. So you get 12 games at most, and that is assuming you go all the way to the U-20 final and the CONCACAF Final. The rest of those games on your list are friendlies or random tournaments like the Milk Cup. Someone needs to define what "results don't matter," means in this context then, if "I don't think anyone said anything about not wanting to win."
Yet they still played 16 games. Sixteen games in which either winning was what is was all about, or sixteen of which in some winning was the objective, or sixteen in which winning wasn't the key objective but developing the player. Playing a game with high level teammates, opponents and pressures is a great setting for player development. Doing so sixteen times in a year would definitely serve more than the two purposes you claim it would. Which is not even to say the USSF staff "[doesn't] want the [U20's] to win the games it plays". The primary objective of every individual player is - I take it - to win every game. The USSF (staff) should make player development their main objective for every youth team. And not just on a national team level, but also for every youth team in the nation. -- Provided the objective is to develop more 'creative' players as opposed the more 'physically gifted' players we have been developing. You're claiming the USSF "[doesn't] want the team to win the games it plays", as in "We don't want you to win!". That's something complete different from the soccer federation not putting emphasis on game or tournament results.
Notables 1) Shea (Big time part of the future) 2) Johnson (Slovenia made him the next US hero) 3) Altidore (Keep it up at AZ Josmer) 4) Dempsey (Solid year) 5) Michael Bradley (NT fans saw how much we actually need him) Other stories 1) Donovan (Only played 2 games under JK, people think hes on his downfall) 2) Edu (I do not consider him a starter) 3) Agudelo (I thought he was going to have a much better year for RBNY, yes I know hes only 18 but I along with A LOT of people thought he was the next savior of the program when he scored against Argentina/South Africa) 4) Ream (Crappy year for him, hopefully he moves on from MLS and becomes the best defender in the pool) 5) Injuries to Lichaj/Holden (We may never know what these friendlies would have looked like with Lichaj on LB and Chandler on RB, or vis-versa. Holden would have been huge to have around as well.)
Think about it, after the past few friendlies , we got rid of some players that were magically inserted in the roster/ Starting 11. vs Mexico; Clark vs Costa Rica ; Orozco and Castillo vs Belgium; Rogers vs Honduras; Orozco again vs Ecuador; Tim Ream vs France and Slovenia; I would like to think Beckerman and Goodson. One can hope. 2011 was a great year to get rid of some players that just couldn't cut it. 2012 will be a much greater year because of this. Next year, I'd like to see (4-1-2-1-2) Howard Chandler Boca Gooch Lichaj/Morales Jones/Bradley(CDM) Johnson (LW) Donovan(RW) Dempsey(AM) Altidore and Buddle. Bench: Shea(Supersub) Williams(LB) John(CB) Edu(CDM) Adu(AM) Gomez(ST) Agudelo(Supersub)
I guess it wasn't a beautiful day in your neighborhood because as far as I remember, Mr. Rogers was subbed into the Slovenia game very late.
It's a bit more complicated. You're talking about Matthias Sammer, who became Sportdirektor in early 2006, so he was even less important than Klinsmann for the first years of the rebuilding. German youth soccer had been about winning in the "dark days", the players just weren't good enough to win; so first we had to produce better players. The technical and tactical schedules and the guidelines for the academies had been done before. Sammer saw his youth teams playing a free-flowing ball, everything looked nice; they just didn't win any tournaments yet in his first year in charge. Sammer is a very conservative guy, and some kind of anti-Klinsmann. He also likes endless esoterical rants, but he's talking about blood, sweat and tears, "German virtues", and hierarchies on the field. He wants to identify leaders, team players and individualists at an early age, and thinks that mental development is as important as ball skills and tactical understanding. The youth teams started to win tournaments after some time, but I doubt that had much to do with his ideas.
Pretty even, fun, exciting game, imo. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k56BNlRRkKY"]March 29, 2011: MNT vs PAR Highlights - YouTube[/ame]