My formula is club coefficient*3/sum of other three club coefficients in group. The higher the value for a club the easier the group should be for it. The group letters are in parenthesis and it is ranked from easiest to hardest: Manchester United: 3.586 (C) Barcelona: 3.465 (H) Chelsea: 2.606 (E) Bayern Munich: 2.481 (A) Inter Milan: 2.371 (B) Arsenal: 2.278 (F) Porto: 1.865 (G) Real Madrid: 1.836 (D) AC Milan: 1.662 (H) Lyon: 1.549 (D) Shakhtar Donetsk: 1.514 (G) CSKA Moscow: 1.451 (B) Valencia: 1.331 (E) Benfica: 1.243 (C) Villarreal: 1.210 (A) Marseille: 1.134 (F) Zenit St. Petersburg: 0.901 (G) Ajax: 0.777 (D) Olympiacos: 0.763 (F) Bayer Leverkusen: 0.739 (E) Lille: 0.6568 (B) Manchester City: 0.6566 (A) Basel: 0.505 (C) Borussia Dortmund: 0.302 (F) BATE Borisov: 0.289 (H) Napoli: 0.262 (A) Dinamo Zagreb: 0.241 (D) Trabzonspor: 0.168 (B) APOEL Nicosia: 0.158 (G) Genk: 0.094 (E) Viktoria Plzen: 0.060 (H) Otelul Galati: 0.057 (C) BATE Borisov was in Pot 3 but has a harder group relative to its opponents than Borussia Dortmund from Pot 4.
Dinamo Zagreb could take points from their opponents: Real Madrid, Lyon, Ajax even though Dinamo Zagreb was in fourth pot. You can find some details about GNK Dinamo Zagreb here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1802099
To be frank, this does not look very accurate at all. Bayern Munich will have a very tough time in their group (though they should make it through), a much tougher time than say Inter, despite their higher coefficient. Olympiakos on the other hand, being in group F, will find it harder to qualify than Dortmund. Despite Dortmund's lower coefficient, they are poised to do damage in that group.
In general FIFA and UEFA rankings don'r represent nothing. Napoli: 0.262 (A) is for sure better than BATE Borisov: 0.289 (H), Basel: 0.505 (C), Olympiacos: 0.763 (F), Bayer Leverkusen: 0.739 (E), Lille: 0.6568 (B) Croatian Ivan Perisic is a great Borussia D. player.
I am aware of the bolded part. I was responding to the title: "Ranking Of How Hard Every Group Is For Each Club" That is just not accurate, IMO.
The UEFA (or FIFA) rankings aren't that completely off the mark, otherwise they wouldn't be as good in predicting who gets into the next round as they are (count pot 1 teams that did not make it into the 2nd round/pot 4 teams that did make it into the next round...), though I'd certainly agree that they aren't accurate enough to make this computation. And by the way, I don't agree that Napoli is for sure better than Leverkusen or Lille.
Very interesting statistics. But the problem with UEFA coefficients is that they do not accurately reflect current strength. Teams like Manchester City and Dortmund - who may have been relatively weak only 2 years ago but have since vastly improved - are grossly underestimated while teams like Inter are overestimated due to past glory. You get better results if you discard coefficients and use common sense instead. It is obvious, for instance, that it will not be plain sailing for Bayern Munich and Arsenal despite the coefficients based statistics above saying otherwise.
I agree with you entirely that UEFA coefficients are backward looking, so that generates all kind of problems. But it's still nice to have a ranking based prediction. My intuition tells me your right, but it would be nice to put that second paragraph to the test. Can you give your 1-4 rankings of each group and see if you do better than the UEFA ranking?
EvanJ, on the same note it would be great to see what the predictions would be for last year, given last year's ranking.
I did a similar but not identical thing for 2010-2011 at https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1742063 but I didn't post a value for each club there. If you post or private message me your e-mail address I will e-mail you a spreadsheet.
You can read my predictions at https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1808661 (I made them on September, 5th). Here is a copy: Bayern, ManC, Villareal, Napoli Inter, CSKA, Lille, Trabzonspor ManU, Benfica, Basel, Galati Real, Lyonnaise, Ajax, Zagreb Chelsea, Valencia, Leverkusen, Genk Arsenal, Dortmund, Marseille, Olympiakos Porto, Donetsk, St. Petersburg, Nicosia Barca, AC Milan, Bate, Plzen
This is a little off topic but it always annoyed me to see some clubs referred to by their names and some by the city their from. Look, for example, BATE is the club name, but Plzen is only the location. Ajax is a club name, but Zagreb is the location of Dinamo Zagreb.
In Zagreb, there are two main clubs and a lot of smaller clubs: GNK Dinamo Zagreb and NK Zagreb. In this year Champions League, plays Dinamo Zagreb: GNK Dinamo Zagreb - Blue Hell: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1802099 Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GNK_Dinamo_Zagreb Official website of GNK Dinamo Zagreb: http://www.gnkdinamo.hr/home-page.html Zagreb city: http://www.google.hr/search?q=Zagre...ct=mode&cd=2&ved=0CBkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1152&bih=773 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zagreb Croatia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia Photos of Croatia: http://www.google.hr/search?q=croat...=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CBoQ_AUoAQ BATE is an acronym of Borisov Works of Automobile and Tractor Electric Equipment. Interesting is that you will never see the city of London in the name of any London club. Take care Ukrainian Dynamo!
Dynamo seems to be a very popular club name in Eastern Europe. Is there any big city without a club named "Dynamo" (Kiev, Moscow, Zagreb...)? Even in (Soviet occupied) East Germany, the two biggest clubs were Berliner FC Dynamo and Dynamo Dresden. Both clubs were founded and owned by the STASI - the East German secret police, by the way. Is there a connection?
In Ancient Greek language "dunamis" means power, strength, force. Australia and South America are the only continents that don't have the name of Dinamo in their countries in official matches. In philosophy, Potentiality and Actuality, Dunamis or dynamis (δύναμις) as it is used by Aristotle as a concept contrasting with actuality. Its Latin translation is "potentia", root of the English word potential, and used by some scholars instead of the Greek or English variants. Dunamis is an ordinary Greek word for possibility or capability. Depending on context, it could be translated "potency", "potential", "capacity", "ability", "power", "capability", "strength", "possibility", "force" and is the root of modern English words "dynamic", "dynamite", and "dynamo". In early modern philosophy, English authors like Hobbes and Locke used the English word "power" as their translation of Latin potentia. Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potentiality_and_actuality Croatian football clubs in Australia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Croatian_football_clubs_in_Australia These clubs Croats founded, because many Croats live in Australia, like in Deutschland. Croatia has large diaspora in the whole world. Croatian diaspora: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_diaspora The oldest Dinamo is Dynamo Moscow - 1927. year. The richest Dinamo is Dynamo Kiev. The weakest Dinamo is Dinamo Kingston in England. Players pay 4 pounds for training and 10 pounds for the match, amateur local English leagues. Dinamo with most trophies is Dynamo Harare from Zimbambwe. They won 18 times national titles until 2009. year. I don't know if they won any trophy since 2009. Countries that have Dinamo: USA: Pittsburgh Dinamo, Houston Dynamo, NJ Dynamo Soccer. England: Loughborough Dinamo FC, Duffield Dinamo FC, Dynamo Kingston FC Germany: Berliner FC Dinamo, SG Dynamo Dresden Russia: Dinamo Moscow, Dinamo Bryansk, Dinamo Stavropol, Dinamo Makhachkala Estonia: Dünamo Tallin Belarus: FC Dinamo Brest, Dinamo Minsk Ukraine: Dynamo Kiev Georgia: FC Dinamo Batumi, FC Dinamo Sokhumi, FC Dinamo Tblisi Serbia: Dinamo Pančevo, Dinamo Vranje Romania: Dinamo Bucuresti Moldova: FC Dinamo Bender Cameroon: Dynamo Dovala Zimbambwe: Dynamo Hahare Madagascar: Dinamo Fima Kirghistan: FC Dordoi - Dynamo Latvia: FK Dinamo - Rinuž/Lasd Albania: KS Dinamo Tirana Most of them are from the ex-Eastern (Soviet, Yugoslav) Block, but there are also some Dinamo's in other countries. But all of them were founded because of Dynamo Moscow probably, he is the oldest club. Dinamo Zagreb was founded 1911., but he changed the name in Dinamo 1945. Because of that Dinamo is younger, but Dinamo was founded 1911. as HASK. Because of this Soviet occupation DDR also has the name of Dinamo. Of course that this connection exists, Soviet Union ruled all the way to the Berlin, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Croatia, Slovenia, whole ex-Yugoslavia. It's weird, all countries suffered under Soviet Union, but we all have the name of Dinamo in our countries. I saw documentaries how Soviet Union destroyed Berlin completely, you couldn't find a brick that wasn't broken, pure demonstration of revenge. Whole Germany was destroyed: Dresden, Leipzig, many cities. It was terrible in XX. century for these countries. Yugoslavia was puppet or sister state of Soviet Union. Croatian money, fortune went in Serbia. You can find many information about Yugoslavia on this link: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1805884 Many people around the world still don't know what happened in ex-Yugoslavia, people think that we are all the same, but we are not. Croats came first on West Balkan in 7th century: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1813116 Many footballers in the world have Croatian heritage, including Diego A. Maradona: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1578252 Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland don't have Dinamo in their cities, because Russians had wars against them. Croats also doesn't like Russian influence, Croatia was always oriented "Western", but after Austro-Hungarian Monarchy Croats entered in Kingdom of Yugoslavia. Croatia suffered there a lot, even though Croatia was the richest republic. Serbs made genocide against Croats during the WW2 and from 1991.-1995. Recent war between Croatia and Serbia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatian_War_of_Independence But Croats always won against Serbs. On the thread of Croatia, we have theme about Serbian injustice against Croats since 1918. year. You can all read if you have time, everything was proofed with links, quotes, pictures. Serbia always wanted Great Serbia, they wanted to destroy non-Serbian residents of West Balkans, because Croatia is a very beautiful country, has great potential in many factors. Croatian players in Yugoslavian national team - historic injustice: https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1805884 Croatia was in alliance with Germany in the World War II, that's why Serbs don't like Croats, Serbs doesn't like Germans - every country that thinks "Western". In Yugoslav national team played a lot of Croats, but Serbia is the successor of these results in every sport, not just in the football. You can comment if you want. Bis bald!