2010 Seeding Formula: January 2008 update

Discussion in 'World Cup 2010: General' started by Edgar, Jan 23, 2008.

  1. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    (Cross-posted to Lucruri neinteresante)

    Since scaryice is still recovering after his holiday hangover... :p

    You all know the system, so here's the table. Egypt replaces Senegal.

    Check one of the previous editions for the FAQ.

    Code:
     1 Brazil         60.3 29.3 31
     2 Germany        58.3 30.3 28
     3 Italy          57.3 27.3 30
     4 Spain          54.3 25.3 29
     5 Argentina      53.0 21.0 32
     6 France         49.3 23.3 26
     7 England        47.3 26.3 21
    ------------------------------ 
     8 Portugal       47.3 22.3 25
     9 Netherlands    38.7 14.7 24
    10 Mexico         37.3 19.3 18
    11 Czech Republic 33.0  6.0 27
    12 Croatia        32.0  9.0 23
    13 USA            28.0 13.7 14.3
    14 Turkey         27.0 10.0 17
    15 Paraguay       24.7 11.7 13
    16 Japan          22.3 13.3 9
    17 Greece         22.0  0.0 22
    18 Korea Republic 20.7 15.7  5
    19 Romania        20.0  0.0 20
    20 Scotland       19.0  0.0 19
    21 Nigeria        17.3  2.7 14.7
    22 Colombia       16.0  0.0 16
    23 Australia      15.3 11.3  4
    24 Cameroon       15.0  3.0 12
    25 Uruguay        13.7  2.7 11
    26 Cote d'Ivoire  13.3  6.0  7.3
    27 Iran           11.3  5.3  6
    28 Saudi Arabia   10.0  8.0  2
    29 Guinea         10.0  0.0 10
    30 Egypt           7.7  0.0  7.7
    31 South Africa    4.0  3.0  1
    32 Honduras        3.0  0.0  3
    Top 7 + South Africa seeded. England and Portugal tied - I chose England as seed because of their superior past WC performance.

    The pots:

    Pot A: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
    Pot B: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Scotland, Turkey
    Pot C: Australia, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA
    Pot D: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

    Possible draw:

    Group A: South Africa, Romania, Iran, Uruguay
    Group B: Germany, Portugal, USA, Guinea
    Group C: Argentina, Greece, Mexico, Egypt
    Group D: Brazil, Czech Republic, Australia, Cameroon
    Group E: France, Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Colombia
    Group F: Italy, Scotland, Honduras, Nigeria
    Group G: Spain, Netherlands, Japan, Cote d'Ivoire
    Group H: England, Turkey, Korea Republic, Paraguay

    Previous Editions

    July 2006
    August 2006
    September 2006
    October 2006
    November 2006
    December 2006
    June 2007
    July 2007
    August 2007
    September 2007
    October 2007
    November 2007
    December 2007
     
  2. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    D for Death...
     
  3. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Maybe. But not if Cameroon keeps losing to lower ranked teams. I'm starting to think we keep seeing them as a powerhouse, but, like Costa Rica, they have slipped enough that we should stop seeing them that way.

    Anyone that follows Africa more closely have an opinion?

    ...checking the current rankings, Egypt isn't that far behind them. So maybe that wasn't too shocking a loss yesterday.
     
  4. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think, though it'd be tough, I'd really love an opportunity like that. And I bet Portugal would, too.
     
  5. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, and except for the Egypt over Senegal change, I expect this is pretty much identical with December, being as there was virtually no change in the FIFA rankings.
     
  6. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    A is group of life for sure.
     
  7. Hrvat

    Hrvat New Member

    Mar 27, 2005
    Zagreb, Croatia
    G would be the group of death IMHO.
     
  8. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How about both? H is pretty nasty too.

    I think it's fantastic that as other confederations improve, the WC groups just get harder and harder.
     
  9. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    i second that
     
  10. Wezza

    Wezza Member

    Sep 17, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Damn! I hope that doesn't happen if we get through! G is really tough as well.
     
  11. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah. The quality host that was the US in '94 is looking to be well outdone by South Africa. They're looking like crap in Ghana right now, and I don't expect they'll be much better by '10. I would not be shocked to see them fail to make it out of the second round of qualifying.
     
  12. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With no changes in the order of the top 9, and (I think) no changes in the top teams in each confederation, it looks like this month will be the same as last month.

    And with only Asian and minnow CONCACAF qualifying next month, we probably won't see much movement until the summer.

    ...actually, it looks like Senegal is back in for the mock draw, replacing Nigeria.
     
  13. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    And Ghana replaces Guinea.

    February update (with a twist) -> link.
     
  14. Dwbakke

    Dwbakke Member

    Jun 10, 2004
    Arlington, VA
    The only problem with that mock draw is that Canada, Honduras, and Mexico cannot all qualify since they're all in the same group and only two teams advance to the hex from each group.
     
  15. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Good point. I fixed it -> link.
     
  16. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You know, this is one thing that's kinda sad about South Africa hosting.

    If we got that group, I would pick the USA to win it. Put us in almost any other group and we're working hard and hoping for 2nd.
     
  17. GlryManUtd

    GlryManUtd New Member

    Nov 10, 2007
    Ocean County, NJ
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    i was thinking the same thing, well seal that group, but then well have most likly the czechs in the round of 16 because spain always wins the group, and that would be a tough one.
     
  18. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    March 2008 update -> link.
     
  19. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ouch on Group H.
     
  20. Michele

    Michele Member

    Mar 18, 2008
    Copenhagen
    And what a shame that is. Let it be no secret that I really like Canada and Honduras in the CONCACAF and this time around I actually get the feeling that both of them have really good teams who could at least challenge for the 3rd and 4th spots in the hex. So seeing them in the same semi final group with Mexico as an almost certain qualifier from that group made me really sad. I know that in order to qualify, you just have to beat whatever opposition comes at you, but looking at the other options, I would really have liked if both Canada and Honduras would have had a chance of qualifying for the Hex and fight it out there.

    A group like Mexico, Panama, Canada and Cuba would still not have been easy for Canada, but they would at least have had a decent chance and face the kind of opposition you "need" to beat in order for you to qualify. The same goes for a group like Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Haiti. Still not easy, but manageable.

    As I see the strength of CONCACAF teams right now, I feel that Costa Rica and Trinidad are both below the level they had in 2006 and Guatemala and Panama will definitely put up a fight, but I doubt they would be much better than Canada and Honduras. So I have a feeling, we may need to say goodbye to one of the four strongest teams already in the semi final round even if all teams perform to their best level. I know it's based on FIFA rankings and that the month chosen was just a very unfortunate one for these two teams and I choose not to believe in a conspiracy against Canada either, I just think it's a shame that we don't get to see the best teams in the Hex. My dream Hex would be something like this: USA, Mexico, Guatemala, Panama or Costa Rica, Honduras and Canada, but I have a feeling it'll be USA, Guatemala, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama.

    Of course, Honduras and Canada could just make sure to eliminate Mexico, I just doubt they both have the strength and consistency to stay in the fight and eventually pass Mexico.

    But if I allow myself to dream, something like this would be great.
    Mexico - Canada 1-1, 1-1
    Honduras - Jamaica 3-0, 1-1
    Mexico - Honduras 2-0, 1-2
    Canada - Jamaica 4-0, 1-0
    Mexico - Jamaica 4-0, 0-0
    Honduras - Canada 2-0, 0-1

    leading to
    Canada 11
    Honduras 10
    Mexico 9
    Jamaica 2

    Having said this, Canada will probably bomb and finish below Jamaica at the bottom, but at least, I've had the right to dream from November until late summer.:)
     
  21. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    that early group with Canada, Honduras, Mexico, Jamaica is unfortunate, even Jamaica with all their euro players can put up a good fight, its too bad because I feel Canada and Honduras are the 2 best teams in concacaf after the big 2. Having said that I hope Canada can make the WC in 2010, it will be tough but if they play like they did in the gold cup, there is hope.
     
  22. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's really frustrating, every 4 years, to see how lopsided the quadrangular is. I remember back in '98, Canada and El Salvador were the winners of their quadranglar, and they finished bottom of the hex. I have no idea (off the top of my head) who were in the other quadrangulars, but I remember that the US had a really tough group.

    OK. Looked it up. US, Costa Rica, TnT & Guatemala. Probably could be compared to this time's Canada group.

    Then again, I do think things are getting tougher in general in CONCACAF. Panama is good now, and isn't out of place in the Hex. So I think there are actually 8 teams that legitimately belong in the hex. Someone's got to get eliminated somewhere. Sure, it'd be better to have one of the Canadian group switched with a bottom team in another group. But, oh, well. That's qualifying in CONCACAF. Every confederation have their problem groups.
     
  23. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    April 2008 update -> link.
     
  24. Pkauffma

    Pkauffma Member

    Feb 23, 2007
    HI
    From the possible draws listed from the link above, which group do you think is the group of death?

    I think it would be group B or H.
     
  25. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dear god, let us not draw that group in 2010...!

    C and G are both tricky groups, but B is evil.
     

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