2010-2011 UEFA Champions League Group Stage Club Performance and Group Difficulty

Discussion in 'Champions League' started by EvanJ, May 27, 2011.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For the 32 clubs in the Group Stage I calculated the mean club coefficient of the club's three opponents and a difficulty ratio of that mean divided by the club's coefficient (with higher numbers meaning the rest of the group was stronger relative to the club in question). I then calculated the correlation between three things and the points each club earned. Here are my results:

    Correlation between Group Stage points and club coefficient = 0.7254
    Correlation between Group Stage points and mean club coefficient of the other three clubs in the group = -0.7217 (the correlation is negative because higher opponents' club coefficients should result in the club getting fewer points)
    Correlation between Group Stage points and difficulty ratio = -0.6894 (the correlation is negative because a higher difficulty ratio should result in the club getting fewer points

    The first two correlations have an almost identical absolute value while the third correlation is a little weaker, meaning that my idea of a difficulty ratio didn't work too well at least for this one Group Stage.

    On another note, since clubs don't play themselves the mean coefficient for the other three clubs should be highest for the worst clubs and lowest for the best clubs. Not too surprisingly, the seven clubs with the most difficult opponents were all in Pot 4. Tottenham and Copenhagen were the only clubs not in Pot 4 to have harder opponents than Zilina, the Pot 4 club with the easiest opponents. The seven clubs with the easiest opponents were all in Pot 1, but Pot 1 club Internazionale had harder opponents than half the clubs in Pot 2; namely Roma, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Marseille. Internazionale had the best coefficient but also the hardest opponents of the three Italian clubs. Bursaspor had the worst coefficient of the 32 clubs and their difficulty ratio of 12.021 was by far the highest. The next highest was Zilina at 6.715. 17 clubs had a ratio higher than 1 and 15 had a ratio lower than 1. Panathinaikos, the worst club in Pot 2, was the only Pot 1 or Pot 2 club with a difficulty ratio higher than 1. Barcelona had the lowest difficulty ratio at 0.276, with the other clubs under 0.5 ordered from easiest to hardest being Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Bayern Munich.

    If anybody posts or private messages me their e-mail address I will e-mail you my spreadsheet if you want.
     

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