2009 MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 30

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Andy_B, Oct 5, 2009.

  1. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    % of season completed				
    91.1%				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17488	15209	22.8%	26.9%
    1997	14483	12694	24.8%	15.2%
    1998	14209	11500	27.4%	15.4%
    1999	14366	13067	32.6%	14.9%
    2000	13461	12688	35.4%	10.9%
    2001	14756	13376	26.4%	16.7%
    2002	15411	13521	18.9%	16.5%
    2003	14760	13516	24.3%	18.4%
    2004	15294	13122	27.2%	24.3%
    2005	14883	12368	29.1%	16.6%
    2006	15131	13280	20.6%	16.6%
    2007	16506	15033	8.5%	26.6%
    2008	16366	15035	11.5%	25.1%
    2009	15878	14534	15.6%	20.0%
    				
    				
    Final Numbers				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17406	15093	21.9%	26.3%
    1997	14619	12733	25.0%	16.3%
    1998	14312	11871	26.6%	16.1%
    1999	14282	12973	32.3%	15.1%
    2000	13756	12690	34.4%	12.5%
    2001	14962	13431	26.6%	17.7%
    2002	15821	14108	17.1%	18.6%
    2003	14898	13641	23.3%	18.0%
    2004	15559	13285	24.7%	25.3%
    2005	15108	12619	27.1%	17.7%
    2006	15504	14175	18.8%	18.8%
    2007	16770	15353	8.2%	29.7%
    2008	16459	15188	11.0%	24.8%
    
     
  2. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    AAQ:

    Average: 4th out of 14
    Median: 4th out of 14
    <10k: 3rd out of 14
    >=20k: 5th out of 14

    AAQ = (4+4+3+5)/4 = 4
     
  3. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Next week should be fairly predictable:

    TFC > 20k for SJ.
    SJ a tad above 10k for fCD (they are still alive, after all)
    CHV should hopefully be 16k
    NE should be 15k plus as well, that's a big one.
     
  4. Golazo

    Golazo Member+

    Apr 15, 1999
    Decatur, GA USA
    Andy,

    Would you bet the mortgage that the AAQ is going to finish at 4? I see very little room for movement either way.

    Thanks again.
     
  5. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We could still fall below the 2002 average, but that seems to be the only realistic (although unlikely considering where the remaining games are)movement left available.

    It is also possible though exceedingly difficult to catch the 1996 median, I believe 16 out of the remaining 20 would have to top 15.1k and that means only one slip up outside of the 2 in KC and 1 in SJ. So I think that is a no for sure.
     
  6. RerunStubs

    RerunStubs Member

    Dec 8, 2006
    Depends on the average. The others numbers are pretty locked in. Median and >20K are just about guaranteed to finish 4th and 5th, respectively, and it would take seven more games at less than 10K to move that number from 3rd to 4th (not likely).

    The average could be a close call. Right now, if each team averages its median over the remainder of the season, would finish at 18,814 - just 7 shy of 4th.
     
  7. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    9,023 in San Jose tonight vs FC Dallas.

    Not bad considering the weeknight with the odd start time (half hour early), temps have dropped considerably, and most telling the two teams are both out of the playoffs.
     
  8. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Except for the slight fact that until after the game, neither team was...
     
  9. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Only in a fantasy land or someone's FIFA 10 were either team particularly the home team not already out of it. Sure statistically the Quakes weren't eliminated til last night, but in reality a .000000000000000000001% chance is not a chance. Hell Dallas making it even after the win is going to be tough.
     
  10. carnifex2005

    carnifex2005 Member+

    Jul 1, 2008
    Club:
    Vancouver Whitecaps
    From the reports, that number was tickets sold and not people that attended.
     
  11. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Almond's comment was probably from his quick glance at the crowd at kickoff. The stadium didn't fill in until almost 30 minutes into the game, which considering the start time was moved up 30 minutes from the usual start time of 7:30 to 7 for some reason, makes sense.
     
  12. soccermaul

    soccermaul Red Card

    May 28, 2009
    On the Bus..
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just wonder if this game was held at Spartan Stadium, how many fans would have showed up.
     
  13. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Probably more people than FC Dallas is used to playing in front of in Frisco, oh wait 9,023 is more than they're used to :D

    Seriously though it's hard to say. Could be more could have been less, but who knows with the odd start time on a weeknight, cold weather (relatively speaking for locals), the Quakes being out of the playoffs in last place, Spartan's poor condition (bathrooms overflowing and whatnot), Spartan having fake grass now and Spartan being in a more run down area...

    The better question is what would it have been given the same situations in the new stadium. That answer I suspect would be, more...
     
  14. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Generally agree that it was a decent number... but also it was their last home game of the season. Would have hoped for a sellout there.

    But if they get the stadium situation sorted out, I think things will end up OK. I'm not saying to move anything.
     
  15. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
    move anything
     
  16. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just moved my pen.

    That was easy.

    Next suggestion?
     
  17. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Does a bowel movement count?
     
  18. jayd8888

    jayd8888 Member+

    Aug 22, 2006
    Denver CO
  19. FUAEG

    FUAEG Member+

    Oct 18, 2005
    San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Distributed, not sold.

    The MLS reports an Inflated Number of Tickets Distributed as attendance.

    That close to the smallest home crowd the Quakes played in front of this year. Of course we played in front of smaller crowds six times this year on the road.

    Last game of the season on a Wednesday at 7pm was pretty dumb. AYSO comes out pretty big this time of year, but not on a school night.
     
  20. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    San Jose definitely wins the "strangest schedule of the year" award:

    1. multiple venues
    2. bunch of weeks off in a row
    3. Second earliest home finale
    3b. Three road games to end the year
     
  21. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to mention 5 of 7 at home to start the year which was also odd. Also luckily the multiple venue thing should be gone next year. They've been saying that we won't be playing at the Coliseum in Oakland anymore. And based on fan reaction unless something like the Chivas/Barca double header comes along again hopefully we won't be playing at Candlestick again either. Buck Shaw should be our full time home until the new stadium opens.
     
  22. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Colorado's would probably be second then:

    1. Earliest home final
    2. 4 of first 5 games on the road
    3. Summer had a 12 game stretch with only 3 road games
    2. 4 sets of back-to-back match-ups (LA and Seattle back to back if you include the USOC play-in games, then 4 weeks where we played TFC then SJ back-to-back)
     
  23. CACuzcatlan

    CACuzcatlan Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Even though they've said all games will be at Buck Shaw, I imagine that MLS will schedule the Galaxy game for after Becks is back from Milan/World Cup and that game will be played in Oakland. Will all the hype from the World Cup, I can't imagine Lew not pushing for that. The potential is there for a crowd of 40k+
     
  24. athletics68

    athletics68 Member+

    Dec 12, 2006
    San Diego & San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think they learned this year the Beckham hype running out of steam. That and there should only be one LA v SJ game in the Bay Area next year and Lew has already said it's being played at Buck Shaw, pretty boy or not. It does nothing to help the home town team or crowd to play in Oakland and they realize that now. I'd be very surprised if we ever play a game at one of the big stadiums again that isn't either a double header or a friendly vs a big international team.
     
  25. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yup. The newness of Beckham has worn off. The only places it would probably still work are Seattle and Philadelphia because the home fans of those teams haven't seen Beckham play in person before. The rest of the league has already seen Beckham play in person at least once.
     

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