News: 10 months later, National D2 Feasability study FINALLY to begin...

I can see up to twelve teams working at the Tier II level. The population alone of Edmonton (1M), Calgary (1M), Ottawa (1M), Winnipeg (750K), Hamilton (750K), and Quebec(750K) makes all six of them viable soccer markets. Facilities are an issue in all six of them, but if the CSA gets the right owners in each city together, any city can have use a modified or temporary stadium for a year while it plans to build a 5,000 seat grass stadium.

Beyond those six cities, there are three more where "minor league" sports can and do succeed: Victoria (325K), London (500K), and Halifax (375K). I think they're equal, because the larger population of London is offset by the proximity of larger centres and the MLS team in Toronto.

That's nine viable markets, enough to form an 8-team league. I'd suggest that Saskatoon is a viable tenth market, with a population larger than Regina, which supports a CFL team. The only other cities in Canada with 200K people are Windsor and Kitchener, which I think are both less viable than Saskatoon due to their proximity to larger cities (Toronto and Detroit), and thus the snob-factor towards minor sports (though the OHL succeeds in both). Cheers.

 

Might wish to look at a place like the Okanagan region in BC as well for a possible team.

 

With respect, it does nothing of the sort. It simply indicates they have a sufficient population base but it does not mean they are viable. Madrid has a population of 6 million. That doesn't make it viable for an NHL team.

What makes a city viable at the D2 level is an owner, a stadium, and the ability to consistently draw at least 4000 (ideally 5000) fans. Population helps with that last item, but only if the people like soccer and minor league sports.

Let's assume an owner for each city. That's a big assumption but let's take it as given that someone with money actually wants a team in each of those places.

Let's also assume that every city on your list has a stadium that could work. Not necessarily an ideal stadium, but something that holds at least 5000 for soccer. This assumption is probably actually true, even for your additional cities of Victoria, London, and Halifax.

What evidence is there that any of those cities would provide 4000 or 5000 fans per game for D2 soccer? Only Montreal (using a lot of discounted tickets) and Vancouver ever drew this for D2 soccer in Canada. Even Vancouver was right on the edge much of the time. And that's in two of the country's most soccer-loving cities.

Edmonton is relatively soccer friendly but only drew 1800 this year in D2.

I really don't see any of the cities on that list drawing 4000 to 5000. Probably more like 1000 to 2000 at best.

And, to have a league, all the teams have to survive. It's no good if four of them do and four fold because you can't realistically have a four team league. The history of D2 soccer in North America argues very strongly against any eight new teams all surviving for more than a season.

Unless someone can come up with concrete reasons why attendance would be in the necessary range in eight cities outside of Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, I just don't see a Canadian D2 league working.

 

Might have to go with just a few owners for a lot of teams at first - ala, MLS.

 

That might be an option to deal with the owner problem. Really, though, I see it as stadia (not a big issue), owners (an issue), attendance (a huge issue).

 

There aren't any hockey fans in Madrid. There are soccer fans in Canada. So that's not really a meaningful or useful comparison.

"What makes a city viable at the D2 level is an owner, a stadium, and the ability to consistently draw at least 4000 (ideally 5000) fans."

Agreed. With a wealthy owner and a lovely, modern, soccer-only facility that seated 5,000, we could make pro soccer work in Vic, Edm, Cgy, Wpg, Lon, Ott, Que, and Hfx. That's what makes these cities viable as Tier II pro soccer markets. Any thoughts I have on the matter are predicated on an ownership group committing to building a proper facility. Montreal did it. Edmonton say they will. Vancouver and Toronto never did at the USL level.

"What evidence is there that any of those cities would provide 4000 or 5000 fans per game for D2 soccer?"

If someone builds a soccer specific stadium in all these cities, and a well marketed Canadian league with a decent broadcasting schedule and corporate sponsorship is formed, and it either fails or succeeds, then we'll have our answer.

Unfortunately, that sort of experiment will never happen, so we're faced with reality: giving our opinions, rather than observing the results of a science experiment. We also have to do so while commenting on something that is growing one piece at a time, not via some billion dollar gift from Bill Gates or Warren Buffett. That being the case, there are a lot of factors.

Success reinforces success. Does the growth of MLS in Canada to Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, enhance the chances for success of local soccer in other Canadian cities? I think it does. Does the Voyageurs Cup help a little bit in this regard? I think it does. If there was an NASL team in Calgary as well as Edmonton this year, would that increase the financial well being of Edmonton? I think it would. If FC Edmonton had road trips to Victoria, Calgary, and Winnipeg instead of Puerto Rico, Tampa, and Miami, would that also lower their costs? Yes, it would. Would home gates against Cgy and Wpg be higher than against Atlanta? I think they would. Would media coverage increase if there would two Alberta teams? I think it would. All of these little things add up, and are mutually reinforcing, just like they are all negatives when they aren't there. We'll see next year how many fans will travel from Mtl to Tor, and vice-versa, for MLS if those clubs allow a larger away section than Van, Sea, and Prt allowed this year. Imagine an away section for Cgy fans at FC Edm games. 50 people in year one. 100 in year two. That's how things grow.

MLS started in NFL stadia. Now, most teams have their own facility. That was arguably the "make or break" component to MLS. It would be the same for teams in Canada at the D2 level, whether they stay in the USL or the NASL, or try to create a CSL.

There are more sports channels now than in 1992, and they are looking for content to broadcast. Social media is new. Live-streaming on computers now exists. There is more interest in local, live soccer in Canada than there was 20 years ago. Things have changed.

The tough part is watching it grow in steps, because that's painfully slow. If 8 Canadian billionaires would just start clubs in Vic, Edm, Cgy, Wpg, Ham, Ott, Que, and Hfx, and build 5000 seat stadia in those cities, it would succeed. The problem is the same as starting a chant in a Cdn soccer crowd: nobody wants to do it alone.

"Even Vancouver was right on the edge much of the time."

Agreed. But why where they on the edge? The 86ers played at a track field at a park in Burnaby. If they had a downtown stadium that they had built, the result would have been the same 10K crowds that Mtl got, and gets. The stadium is the key for Canadian soccer at the D2 level. People will attend in a good facility, and accept that MLS is never coming, if the game is good, the prices are reasonable ($10-25), the sun in shining, there is the ability to boo against Edm, and Cgy, and Wpg, and other cities you know and love to hate, and there is a crack at the MLS teams in the Cdn Championship.

"Edmonton is relatively soccer friendly but only drew 1800 this year in D2"

In it's first year, and playing in a crappy, decrepit facility.

"The history of D2 soccer in North America argues very strongly against any eight new teams all surviving for more than a season"

Yes. Which is why the CSA needs to be involved, and why we need to find some pretty organised and committed wealthy Canadians who are all on the same page. If that happened, we'd also have to see progress: at least one of them announcing the starting of construction on a new stadium in the first season of play, and the rest following suit at the rate of at least one per year.

 

Bingo. Fergus McCann owned Celtic. Frank Stronach owned Rapid Wien. If that size of millionaire built one Canadian club each, and committed to Canada rather than soccer elsewhere, we'd already have a league. Irvings, Jimmy Pattison, and dozens more I don't know could do this.

Jim Balsillie could finance an entire 8-team CSL if he loved soccer, and then sell the teams to individuals as they came forward, just like MLS did. Thompson could have too, and probably still could even owning the Winnipeg Jets. Maybe that's what it would take to get the same vision, at the same time, in enough places to make it work. Otherwise, it's like herding cats.

 

I suspect there are about as many fans in Madrid who would support an NHL team as there are in some Canadian cities who would support a D2 team - about 1000.

Very well put and I think it summarizes the immense difficulties that would face a Canadian league. We don't have owners, we don't have teams, we don't have sufficient numbers of fans, we don't have corporate support, we don't have broadcasting, and we don't have good stadia.

We have no prospects of having someone run the experiment you describe. We therefore must build from what we have using what we can obtain right now.

To me, this means no Canadian D2 league. Instead, it means a decade or two of growing the CSL, adding PDL teams, and adding NASL teams. Let those teams find their own levels. Weed out the ones that don't belong and let the stronger ones thrive. When we have ten or twelve sub-MLS teams across the country that are economically viable then we can have a conversation about a Canadian D2 league if we want. Trying to jump to a D2 league is approaching things exactly backwards.

 

Wait a sec... are stadiums an issue or not?

I think that the lack of appropriate stadiums is by far the biggest roadblock to Canadian soccer.

Sure there are around 30 4,000 to 10,000 seat stadiums in Canada. But the majority of them are either in Tor/Van/Mtl or are in the same city as another stadium on the list (Ron Joyce Stadium and Brian Timmis Stadium are both in Hamilton)

Once you remove all the duplicates/MLS market stadiums, the pared down list of 15 stadiums are generally track and field stadiums in cities under 200,000. In a soccer crazy (heck - even soccer interested) country, those stadiums/cities would have no problem supporting a local side. But we're talking about Canada, and IMO track and field stadiums are not viable venues for professional soccer. It is much harder to have any kind of atmosphere in a track stadium compared to a soccer stadium. Track and field stadiums are poor venues for soccer/rugby/football. The track puts all spectators 10 yards further from the action than is necessary.

If you want people to pay money to watch a sport, you have to present it in the best possible light. This is especially important for a fringe sport like soccer. If you want to insist that soccer is a mainstream sport in Canada, any league Calgary/Halifax/Winnipeg will play in will be a fringe league. Sure, a professional soccer team can play in a track and field stadium, but IMO an owner cannot break even in a track and field stadium.

IMO if there was 20 5,000 seat soccer stadiums across Canada, we'd easily have a 10-12 team league. Some cities/SSS combinations would work and others wouldn't. And the empty SSS's would regularly attract new owners willing to give it a try.

In order for an owner to take the chance on funding a team, there has to be a chance of profit or breakeven. I don't think there is a viable business plan for a fringe sport in a second tier league in a second-rate venue. Soccer will be a fringe sport in Canada for the foreseeable future, and a Canadian league will be a second tier league in North America (even worse if you include popular Euro leagues)

So IMO the venue has got to be right. And that means something like Blackbaud Stadium...

 

Although they are far from ideal we do have places for teams to play. We don't have ownership or sufficient fan support at all. Thus stadia are an issue but not as big an issue as ownership or fan support.

I fully appreciate how helpful a proper stadium can be in terms of bringing fans, bringing back fans, and providing revenue streams. A stadium is also the single, biggest financial hurdle for a potential owner to overcome.

Even a modest, 5000 seat venue would require someone to sink millions into a dubious venture. It is hard enough to find owners who want to take on the financial risk of a soccer team without a $5 million mortgage on top of it. It's hard enough to get fans out in sufficient numbers to support a $1 to $2 million operating budget, let alone to also support $5 million in capital costs.

I'm assuming that any teams we're discussing here will be playing in whatever venues already exist for the foreseeable future. It would be great for it to be otherwise but I just don't see it happening (especially not in enough cities to use it as a model for a whole league).

 

Obviously the USL is dieing, is it possible that a canadian D2 league could grab 2 US teams and then only need 6 of its own? 6 cities is very do able, considering we already have 3 gunning for NASL

 

What 6 cities? Also what 6 cities are going to be able to get sufficient attendance and sponsorship to participate in a nationwide league that aren't already in or will be in NASL?

I agree with a Canadian league but but but....

Let's hear your thoughts.

 

the 6 would be possible if we could get Ottawa, hamilton, and edmonton to jump on board, we could have 3 of Quebec city, London, Winnipeg, Calgary (the calgary-edmonton rivalry writes itself!), I think Toronto has the ability to support a second team, a few others that would be possible, but the main point i was trying to make was that it does not have to be a only canadian league, what is wrong with the NASL blue print of 70% home country teams? you could have a league with Ottawa, Hamilton, Edmonton, winnipeg, quebec city, london, calgary, toronto, buffalo, and rochester. The first season will be a struggle and that allows room for 2 teams to fail and still have a strong league.

 

I don't, in theory, have any argument with a Canadian League that allows some American teams in.

As much as I support an all-Canada league (or even a mostly Canada league such as you propose) and I think those cities are large enough to support it - the key is and always will be paid-attendance and financial sponsorship, as well as TV support.

However, why would Ottawa, Hamilton, and Edmonton leave NASL to play in a likely lower standard of play? Probably what a Canadian league will have to start as is a D3 on a CSL level.

Get regional semi-pro in BC/Alberta (BC and Alta maybe can support their own leagues), Prairies, Ontario (east and west conference?), Quebec/Maritimes. Probably have 6-10 teams in each of these. Then a national cup over a week or weekend for the regional league winners - with the winner of that playing in the Canadian Championship or a playoff against the lowest ranked Canadian NASL team.

Pyramid
1. MLS
2. NASL Teams
3. Canada Regional Semi-Pro D3
4. Men's Premier Amateur/PDL

I realize some PDL might be at a level of the D3 teams.

Once a regional league is established what you will likely see is a handful of teams that go over-and-above expectations on the pitch and off and what you then might see is the Edmonton's of the Canadian Soccer Landscape jumping from NASL to a national D2 Canada league....but I don't see that for 15ish years at best. And only then with the right financial sponsorship and TV support.

CSL is in existence. Quebec is starting up (with some detractors, for good reason). I think the only reason it hasn't happened in BC and/or Alberta/Prairies is because there is no Carrott. No semi-pro teams are getting invited to the NCC etc....no TV deals. Etc.

A BC League?

Victoria/Island
Vancouver (Whitecaps reserves?)
Burnaby/Coquitlam (one or in both)
Richmond
Fraser Valley (Abbotsford or Langley)
Okanagan (whichever city can and wants a team)
*All of these locations have a sufficient semi-pro stadium as well. Fraser Valley and Okanagan could potentially have sponsorship issues...?

6 team semi-pro league that could feasibly have a connection to the regions' PDL and/or PCSL teams.

 

CSA and Division 2

http://media.podhoster.com/itscalledfootball/montopoliinterviewonlyd2final.mp3

So apparently the CSA is going to start a feasibility study on starting a National Second Division. The study is being led by a guy who's done the same thing for MLS.

What do you think? Good for Canadian Soccer? In any way possible?

 

Re: CSA and Division 2

i think any idea related to bringing more professional clubs to canada has nothing but upside, particularly to the future of developing domestic players, both current and in regards to the future.

of equal or greater importance though i think is creating a competitive youth system on provincial levels, but since there's no real economic upside to that it'll probably be the last thing to be fixed, if at all.

 

Re: CSA and Division 2

I don't think a Canadian D2 is all that crazy when you consider it.

West
B.C team
Edmonton
Calgary
Winnipeg

East
Hamilton
Quebec City
Ottawa
London/Quebec team

Nutrilite Canadian championship games

I think the MLS reserve league has been very underwhelming this year. I think it could be a big benefit to the 3 MLS teams if they had a "B" or "feeder" team which they could give younger players experience - ie Phillipe Davies with the Whitecaps, Oscar Cordon with TFC.

I don't think the travel would be an absolute killer if the league was more regionalized. Ie play teams in conference 2 or 3 times vs. once or twice for teams in the other conference. If the league finds the proper footing, it could become extremely attractive to some Northern U.S teams - ie Minnesota, Rochester.

With all the kids the MLS academies are going to be pumping out, I think the talent with gradually get there.

Forget all of that regional 6-10 teams in each province crap. That will never work.

 

Re: CSA and Division 2

Hey you know, if the NASL and MLS don't want to work together to move all the MLS reserve teams to the second divison (not a rumour, just theorizing), why don't the Canadian MLS teams just move theirs to the Canadian D2 league?

 

You can make rules saying reserve squads are not eligible (that's how it is done in Holland, for example)