10 months after the moratorium on US expansion began... http://www.canadiansoccernews.com/content.php?2007-Movement-(finally)-on-D2-feasibilty-study Well, apparently there were a number of individuals in Canadian soccer opposed to having an all-Canadian national second division under the MLS, but that may have changed and we may be getting a framework soon. If this happens, will the Eddies and the upcoming Ottawa club have to join a different Canadian league? Will the NASL have to drop the "N"? Stay tuned!
Dear CSA, A national D2 league means national travel. That means budgets in the $1 to $2 million range. That means attendance in the 4000 to 5000 range. With Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal taken by MLS there simply aren't enough cities left that could possibly hope to generate the necessary support to sustain such a league. As I have now conducted your feasibility study for you, please avoid wasting money on consultants and keep your scarce resources to support our national team. Sincerely, Kingston
It's a national Division 2 framework being discussed. It doesn't require national travel until an inevitable championship. It could easily be set up in the same vein as the CHL or CIS. The purpose of the feasability study is to look at the options for a national all-Canadian framework up to the second division level, and to decide what will work, if anything. To claim that it can't work because of travel costs is a foregone conclusion, and the purpose of this panel will be to not only investigate such claims, but also how these sorts of boundaries might be overcome. Why is there always an immediate contrary reaction to any suggestion that we might have our own Canadian league pyramid rather than being beholden to the USSF for one?
If the league operates on a regional basis until the championship, then it is a D3 league, not a national D2 league. I'm not opposed to this. I think a series of regional bus leagues with a national championship (which is exactly what the CHL and CIS are) would be great and is probably the best way to go for Canadian soccer right now. But that's not the D2 national league they are talking about. Let the D1 and D2 teams play in cross-border leagues. Build a very strong, all-Canadian D3 league using the existing CSL and PDL teams as a base. This is a financially viable option. The financial mathematics simply don't work for a national D2 league right now.
The level of Division teams play in has nothing to do with the area covered, but how the Association classifies that level of play.
That's my mindset. I think that the CSA would do better to classify both MLS and NASL as Division for Canada's purpose, since our top level domestic tournament, the NCC, involves teams from both of those leagues, and define D2 as CSL and other similar level leagues. Trying to map our system to the US system is, in my opinion, not a worthwhile endevour.
I agree. And you get what you pay for... an average NASL/USL1/D2 budget is probably around $1.5 million, USLPro/USL2/D3 budget is probably around $500k and PDL/CSL/D4 budget is 100k or less. The D2 number includes air travel, but the D3 number includes only bus travel, so to compare apples to apples a national D3 league would need a larger budget of around $600k budget to include airfare. So a national D2 league needs average (paid) attendance of around 4,000 to break even and a national D3 league needs around 2,000 to break even. But I just don't think there are enough markets in Ontario/Quebec for a regional (bus travel only) D2 or D3 league. I think that in order to draw 2,000 to 4,000 per game, a team needs a population of at least 200,000. There are only 18 cities in Canada with 200,000 or more residents. 10 are in ON/QC including MTL and TO. So in order for Canada to have an 8 team D2 professional regional soccer league, every city in ON & QC with a population greater than 200,000 would have to support a local side. IMO it will be impossible to get 100% of the cities on board so it is hard to escape the conclusion that that Canada can't support a regional professional soccer league. If you want regional, it can't be professional... but the CSL/PDL already has that covered. If you want professional, it can't be regional... a national professional league is more likely, even with the added cost of air travel. At least a national league has 15 prospective cities to choose from.
They're calling it D2, which immediately makes everyone think of NASL/USL1 level, but my point is not what the level is called. Call it D1.47 if you want. My point is that the CSA is looking at a national league. A national league has certain budget implications, which require certain levels of support, which necessitate cities of a certain size. Canada doesn't have these in sufficient numbers, thus a national D2 league isn't in the cards right now. There are two possible exceptions to this: a) You create what is really a D3, regional, bus league with no national play except the championship and call it a national league. This gets you your "D2 national" league on paper but not in reality. If this were okay we'd all be happy with the current CSL as our national league. After all, they're the only all-Canadian professional league in Canada and they call themselves the Canadian Soccer League, right? b) You hypothesize sugar-daddy owners or a $10 tax, er, fee on every kid who plays soccer in Canada and use that to support your league. The problem here is that the league isn't actually viable. I don't mind a little government pump priming when the economics make sense (see BMO Field) but I don't want a Canadian league that is government funded.
Of course a Canadian Tier II league is possible. There are a lot of things needed though. Cities: I don't think 6 cities is enough, but 8 would be viable. Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg in the west; Hamilton, Ottawa, Quebec, and Halifax in the east. All are viable for a variety or reasons. London could be in instead of Halifax. Stadia: a deal breaker for every team. We need modern, soccer-only stadia owned by the teams, and holding 5-10K depend on the size of the city. Owners: also a deal breaker. Sponsorship: definitely in competition with the CFL and NHL. Is there enough in Canada? A legitimate question. Schedule: unbalanced, with one game home-and-away against the other division, and four vs divisional rivals. Playoffs, then final between the two divisional champions. Crowd size: NASL / USL teams with attendances of less than 4000 seem to disappear fairly quickly, so I'm guessing that's the survival line for professional soccer. It's possible to achieve that today, even though it wasn't a decade ago - as long as big enough owners are willing to build the right stadia. Positives: MLS has increased interest in soccer in Canada for local soccer. Even with Van, Tor, and Mtl in MLS, there is an increasing appetite among Canadians for Canadian professional soccer. The Cdn Champ gives lower division teams a shot at the bigger teams, media coverage, etc. The increase of sports channels makes television coverage more likely. Negatives: the above gaps: stable wealthy owners, enough sponsors, and team-owned modern soccer stadia.
To summarize the requirements you set out: 1. Six to eight teams. 2. A SSS for each team owned by the team. 3. An owner for each team. 4. Crowds of at least 4000. I agree with most of these (but would put stadium ownership in the desirable rather than necessary category). The thing is, they're asking for a feasibility study. Do they really need one? Do you honestly think there's any way your four criteria can be met in a real-world, economically viable fashion? Or is the answer so obviously "no" that they should save their money for something more useful?
Stadium management is preferable to stadium ownership. If an individual wants to built/own a stadium, they will have to pay 100% of the construction costs and pay property taxes on the stadium. They will also be responsible for 100% of the maintenance and renovations when necessary. If an individual contributes to a public facility, they will only have to pay 25% to 50% of the construction costs, won't pay property taxes, will probably be required to pay for the routine maintenance, but not 100% of renovations. So the costs of ownership and management are very different, but management and ownership will both give the team 100% control of revenue streams.
To clarify: if a stadium was actually soccer specific, and the soccer team had first dibs on it, then it doesn't need to be team-owned. But I read about too many situations where teams that fail wouldn't if they controlled the revenue from their facilities. Every team in the NHL is quite frank about this, and given what's just happened in Winnipeg I believe them. The answer is, I think "no", without eight serious investor/owners. Faths in Edmonton - they sound for real. Ottawa is in motion. The NASL is a bridge that allows us to get two of them going without needing the other 6 immediately. In that case, the CSA needs to find 6 people. I think they can - not that it will be easy. Bob Young in Hamilton already is involved in the NASL. There is surely someone in Calgary, with so many companies and millionaires. That's half way. There's Stronach and Fergus McCann who have owned Celtic and Rapid Wien, which cost a lot more than a Div II Cdn team would. The Bronfmans in the Maritimes. These people will only respond to a competent business plan. But they do have the money to make this happen. CFL stadia are not going to cut it, just like NFL stadia do not cut it for MLS; but the potential owners are out there.
This whole thing is a nice idea, but I believe is a stretch of reality. The real focus for the CSA should be to grow the NCC as our national competition, even if it isn't the primary competition for the clubs involved. To have it reach 8 teams would be great. As of 2012 we will have 3 MLS clubs and 1 NASL club. I doubt that any other cities will support an MLS club, so we would need four more NASL clubs. For that, we have potentials in quite a few cities, including Ottawa, Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Mississauga, Quebec City and Halifax. That's a real doable target if you ask me (Ottawa is already in the works), and really, this is the direction the CSA should be pursuing.
Ottawa and Hamilton are both supposed to get NASL teams in the next three or so years in conjunction with new CFL stadia. It's questionable whether having a CFL team owner as the soccer team owner is a good thing since there will be a strong temptation to view the soccer team as simply a stadium-date-filler. However, a team is a team. Calgary would be the next logical choice, despite its spotty history. It doesn't seem to have Edmonton's level of interest but surely has the population and money to make a team possible. The fifth NASL team (to get up to eight teams for the NCC) would be harder. There are no metros over 1 million population left. Winnipeg? It has a reasonable history but the current PDL team draws poorly. Quebec? The largest remaining market but would it draw? Victoria? Draws well for the PDL but could it sustain NASL levels of support with a population of only 350 000? Halifax? A virtually untested market but small at 400 000.
I would think Quebec and Victoria could support a team with enough corporate support. Victoria has some impressive over-seas links as well. Winnipeg may be a different matter, but I'd suspect PDL support is no indication of potential NASL support - as evidenced by the difference in support between Toronto Lynx and FC. To a degree.
I believe that part of the CSA's interest in a Canadian D2 league is that USSF has instituted a rule that 75% of teams in a US D2 league must be from the USA. So in order for 5 Canadian teams to play in NASL, it would have to be a 20 team league. I think that Puerto Rico counts as non-American in this context so in order for 5 Canadian teams to play in the NASL, it would have to be a 24 team league.
Well... there's always USL-1... That's one reason I included Mississauga as a potential. There are nearly 800,000 people there plus 400,000 in neighbouring Brampton and Oakville.
NASL is the new USL1. Do you mean USLPro (formerly known as USL2)? Wow... I just checked the USL attendance thread and Thunder Bay (PDL) has better attendance than 2 of 12 USLPro teams.
Wow... didn't know that it had gone entirely bust. Still, I think that Canada can get more than 25% of the clubs if the business case is right. Money talks and Canadian clubs have already shown that per capita we are a stronger market, on average, compared to most of the USA (exception being the northwestern part of the US).
I don't think a strong business case has anything to do with it... the USSF has decided that the advancement in the USA is not served by having lots of foreign teams leagues sanctioned by the USSF. The USSF simply doesn't want/need Canadian teams. Their league, their rules. They can also bend the rules whenever they want but once your business (franchise/team) becomes dependent on the whim of a foreign non-governmental agency, the business case falls apart due to risk/uncertainty.
The CSA needs to do whatever it can to increase the performance of our Nats. If a national pro league were possible without CSA support then we would have had one for the last 100 years (see CFL). Since one hasn't happened, the CSA would be incompetent not to be constantly pursuing one. We cannot improve our "starting XI" until we create a larger pool of professional players to draw them from. We have 3 x MLS teams, which is all we'll ever have. The next goal needs to be pro teams in Edmonton, Calgary, and Ottawa. If we can do that via US leagues, then good. But there is a limit to how many non-US teams are allowed in NASL. That being the case, we can't get more than 2 teams in that league. So we need to look at other options, including a domestic league.
NASL is not allowed that many non-US teams, but USL Pro and a domestic Cdn league are options. A city that draws well in the PDL will draw a lot more fans at a higher level. Victoria has a strong soccer culture, and people there know MLS is never coming there, so the big city snob factor doesn't apply to it. It could get a few thousand pepole to a Tier II team, I'm quite sure. But would it get the 4,000 I think are needed for long term survival? I think it could. Ditto for Halifax, which also has geographical isolation from other cities. The key thing for all of the cities discussed is a wealthy owner and a plan for a soccer-only stadium.
I left them out because I don't think there's any way a tier two soccer team will draw more than flies in TFC's market. Look at the attendance for the AHL and OHL teams in the GTA as examples. The thing is, I really don't see more than five Canadian teams at this level. (After all, we can't expect the miracle that every possible market will actually work out.) Five teams isn't enough for a league.