Are there any other teams, besides Brazil which qualified and Iran (which can clinch its qualification with a win in its next match) which are on the cusp of clinching their qualification? In other words, other than Iran, which sides are in any position to clinch an early qualification?
CAF and CONMEBOL only play In August AFC, OFC can't be decided CONCACAF still has too many games, same with UEFA
Yup At present times, as how the results of last matches went, only Colombia, Uruguay, Chile and Argentina, are in position to eventually pass them. As there is still yet to be played the match between Uruguay and Argentina, only one of them will be in position to eventually do that, which would leave Brazil in 4th place.
Mexico's next three games are at home, and they will have 19 points after Matchday 7 if they win all three. Mexico will qualify on Matchday 7 on September 1 if they win those three games and at least three of the following happen: USA doesn't win both of their games hosting Trinidad and Tobago and Costa Rica. If USA gets a win and a draw at home and a loss at Mexico, they will have 8 points after Matchday 7 and a maximum of 17 points. Panama loses at Costa Rica. If Panama wins hosting Honduras and loses at Mexico and Costa Rica, they will have 8 points after Matchday 7 and a maximum of 17 points. Honduras doesn't win both of their games at Panama and at Trinidad and Tobago. If Honduras loses at Mexico and gets a win and a draw in their other two games, they will have 8 points after Matchday 7 and a maximum of 17 points. Trinidad and Tobago gets no more than 6 points from games at USA, at Costa Rica, and hosting Honduras. Mexico might be able to clinch after Matchday 7 if they have 17 points then.
In Group B, Nigeria has 6 points, Cameroon has 2, Algeria has 1, and Zambia has 1. Nigeria can get to 12 points with wins over Cameroon on Matchdays 3 and 4, and they would clinch finishing ahead of Cameroon. If neither Algeria nor Zambia wins both games against the other one, both of them would have 5 or fewer points, and Nigeria would clinch on Matchday 4. Nigeria can even clinch on Matchday 4 if they get to 10 points with a win and a draw against Cameroon, who would have 3 points, and Algeria and Zambia played two draws against each other to give them 3 points each. Group E is similar. If Egypt wins both games against Uganda and neither Ghana nor Congo wins both games against the other one, Egypt would qualify on Matchday 4. Egypt would have 12 points, Uganda would have 4, and Ghana and Congo would both have 5 or fewer.
Is there any way that Brazil has NOT YET qualified ? Wikipedia is debating this, that they are only assured of a playoff berth at the moment. Are all the scenarios covered ?
Brazil is 9 pts ahead of Colombia, 10 ahead of Uruguay and Chile and 9 pts ahead of Argentina. Brazil loses all four games = 33 pts Colombia and Chile: both can jump over Brazil with the remaining set of games no questions asked The key game is Uruguay vs Argentina: If Uruguay wins the most Argentina can have in terms of points is 31 pts. If Argentina wins the most Uruguay can have in terms of points is 32 pts. If its a draw the most Argentina can have in terms of points is 32, while Uruguay 33 pts. So yes, Brazil has qualified.
That's correct. When I looked yesterday I didn't look at the fact that South Korea and Uzbekistan end against each other. If Iran vs. Uzbekistan is a draw and South Korea draws, Iran would be 4 points ahead of South Korea and 5 points ahead of Uzbekistan with 2 games left, and it would be impossible for South Korea and Uzbekistan to both get 5 more points. Iran vs. Uzbekistan will be a day before Qatar vs. South Korea, so when the latter game starts Iran will know whether they have clinched qualification, can clinch qualification if South Korea doesn't win, or can't clinch qualification.
Mexico clinching seems very likely. If all teams win their home games they will have clinched on match day 7. A lot of this has to do with the scheduling. Mexico, US and Costa Rica are holding nearly all of the home games. Also, If Mexico wins all three then one of Honduras and Panama are out of reach since they both need 6 points in two games and they play each other in day 6. Also, if T&T get 7 points in three games they've put both the US and Honduras out of reach. I'm beginning to wonder if there is a scenario where Mexico don't qualify.
So I ran the numbers and yes there are scenarios where Mexico don't qualify after winning three home games. They all involve something unlikely like Panama winning at Costa Rica or Honduras grabbing six points on the road.
As it turns out, Iran didn't merely clinch qualifying after beating the Uzbeks 2:0, but with the other results in our group, Iran has also clinched finishing first in its group with two games to spare.
This thread is not about on what position, locally, a team makes it to the WC. It's about on what order they qualify, and so from 1 to 32, Iran was 3rd.
August clinching scenarios: SOUTH KOREA clinches with a win AND an Uzbekistan loss JAPAN clinches with a win MEXICO clinches with a win AND two Honduras losses AND two Trinidad and Tobago losses
That's just the next round of matches in Asia. We play two games in August. Not sure of Group A scenarios but group B is pretty simple. Japan need 3 points from two games, Saudi Arabia need 4 points from 2 games and Australia need 4 points from two games. The team missing out goes to playoffs.
I thought the UAE, despite dropping points against Thailand, was still theoretically in contention. Which then makes Group B a bit more complicated on paper, even if in reality, it is pretty much as you summarized it. But on paper, it is possible for either Australia or Saudi Arabia to be eliminated altogether, with only Japan guaranteed at least making the playoffs.
Yeah, I know, but I was just trying to be find a way to put Iran #1 And that way was to say that Iran is the first team in the world to have clinched winning its qualifying group!
Theoretically its possible yes. UAE must beat Saudi Arabia in their next game for any chance of this happening. They also have a significant goal differential to turn around.
With the UAE failing to beat Thailand, I agree that their chances are close to slim. But what is the relevant tie-breaker: goal difference or head-to-head results? P.S. I checked and goal difference would be the first tie breaker, while head to head results are down the list.
With the two CONCACAF matches going final, MEXICO can clinch a spot in the World Cup on Matchday 7 with a win against Panama and a Honduras loss or draw against Trinidad and Tobago.