Unfortunately, I must begin with the following announcement: this will be my last entry in The Regional Review for BigSoccer.

This de facto resignation was not in any way, shape or form provoked by my rapport with fellow Featured Writers or the leadership. I will always be grateful to Huss for having extended the opportunity to post my ramblings on the biggest soccer webpage in the U.S.; collaborating with Bill Archer on the various facets of CONCACAF reform has been a true highlight of my time here; having writers of the stature of John Jagou, Roger Allaway and Martín del Palacio react to your work is simply an honor; and without Dan Loney’s encouragement, I never would have attempted this in the first place. For the remaining writers with whom I interacted on a less frequent basis (due to the smaller overlap in subject material), I have enjoyed reflecting and commenting on their entries as a means of learning about football stories beyond my immediate sphere of interest.

Nor have I lost the desire to cover the major tournaments in our corner of the world. I freely admit to following the national leagues and cups in North America and Costa Rica more closely than others in the region; but the intrigue of seeing clubs from different countries square off (whether from the U.S. and Mexico or from Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago) appeals to me as strongly as ever, to the extent that CCL weeks are among the first things marked in my yearly calendar. On the national team front, I hold no stronger sporting loyalty than that to the national teams of the US and Haiti; and now that both of them face more exacting competition than ever before (at their respective levels), I have all the more reason to follow the Gold Cup and World Cup qualifying from the very beginning.

Rather, the inability to continue with my writing commitment is a result of recent changes in other areas of life. After passing the Comprehensive Exam and successfully finishing my graduate program, I am now in the process of transitioning to a full-time position at my work. Once that is complete, I will lack the free time to provide articles of the necessary quality (including background research) for this front page. Thus, rather than periodically spitting out a handful of loosely-connected sentences, I will return to regular member status, passing along relevant information on gamethreads (where I am welcome, of course) and watching the matches in question when my schedule permits.

I can think of no more appropriate away to sign off here than by bringing you up to date with qualifying for the last nine berths in the 2013-14 Champions League, since the tournament draw, World Cup qualifying and the Confederations Cup will all have to wait for next month.

Mexico

The second leg of the first semifinal will take place this afternoon at 6:00 p.m. (all times EDT) as Club América host Monterrey at the Estadio Azteca. The 2-2 draw in midweek will allow the águilas to seal their CCL debut with anything other than defeat or a tie of 3-3 or higher. If the visitors manage to escape with a victory, however, the rayado quest for the continental four-peat will be on.

Speaking of that number: the remaining Clausura semifinalists, who will finish up their series on Sunday at 9:00 p.m., have finished runners-up in four of the five CCL tournaments to date. Unless Santos Laguna manage to overturn the 0-3 humbling they suffered at the Territorio Santos Modelo, only Cruz Azul will earn a shot to finally surpass their previous international disappointments…in which case, they will coincidentally pass up the chance to defend their Copa MX title.

Guatemala

Surprisingly, their Clausura regular season is still going on. Unless CONCACAF postpones the CCL draw, it is simply unfeasible that GUA2 will be defined in advance of the event.

El Salvador

The Clausura semifinals are currently underway; and shockingly, Isidro Metapán are nowhere to be found. Nevertheless, the jaguares have plenty of reason to keep an eye on this weekend’s events, since the Salvadoran top seed is already at play. Tonight at 9:00 p.m., FAS will host the upstart Juventud Independiente in Santa Ana, simply needing a win to overturn a 1-2 deficit (a one-goal victory favors the tigrillos on superior regular-season record) and advance to the Final. The second semifinal features a pair of traditional powers, as Luis Ángel Firpo receive Alianza on Sunday at 5:00 p.m. with a similar assignment: come back from 0-1 down in the first leg, and they will find themselves within one game of returning to the continental stage. As for Metapán: a Juventud Independiente-Firpo final will allow them to keep the SLV1 spot, while a FAS-Alianza Clausura championship will definitively condemn Edwin Portillo’s side to SLV2.

Honduras

If América manage to let the CCL berth slip through their fingers this evening, and San Francisco hold serve in Panama, then the next debutant will be determined on Sunday at 6:00 p.m.

Normally, when a club ascends to its national top flight, it requires at least one year to settle in and focuses its energies on securing a second year. Real Sociedad displayed greater ambitions through the acquisition of Honduran national team veteran Julio César Rambo de León last November; and after defeating Olimpia 1-0 in the first leg of the Clausura final, the newcomers simply need to avoid defeat at the Estadio Nacional to become the first team to shoot from the second division to CCL participation in only two years.

If Olimpia successfully defend their Apertura title, however, the precedent from last year holds that the HON2 spot would drop to the runner-up in the full-year table. Assuming some long-overdue consistency in either applying or publicly altering the standard, Victoria will thus be pulling for Olimpia to deliver a similar pummeling to the one the ceibeños received at the end of the last tournament. A two-goal win will maintain Olympia’s dynasty, while a one-goal triumph will force extra time.

Costa Rica

How many grandes are there in the Costa Rican league? Most outside observers (and plenty of ticos) would answer “two”; but with only two games left in the current Torneo de Verano, Deportivo Saprissa and defending champions Alajuelense are nowhere to be found. Instead, Cartaginés will host Herediano on Sunday at 7:00 p.m. in the first leg of the Final, and the florenses will return the favor the following Saturday at 10:00 p.m. I have to admit no small interest in seeing Cartago finally qualify for the Champions League: assuming that it would receive CONCACAF approval for hosting matches, their Estadio Fello Meza provides one of the most raucous and intimidating atmospheres in the entire region…even by Central American standards. A long-awaited return to trophy-winning ways for Cartaginés, though, would hand the CRC1 spot to Alajuelense, while Herediano would keep the top seed for themselves by winning their second championship in as many years (a stunning thought for Herediano fans under 20 years of age, who spent most of their lives under a seemingly interminable domestic drought).

Panama

The one-game Clausura Final will feature a “Battle of the Saints”, as Sporting San Miguelito hunt a first-ever domestic title against San Francisco on Sunday at 5:00 p.m. at the Estadio Rommel Fernández. The qualifying scenarios here are straightforward: either team will grab the PAN2 berth along with the title.

Canada

After the first leg ended goalless, the 2013 Canadian Championship Final will culminate with Vancouver Whitecaps hosting the Montreal Impact on Wednesday, May 29 at 10:00 p.m. With away goals in play, the Québécois require a win or a draw with goals to claim their eighth Voyageurs’ Cup; as for the Whitecaps, their desperate wait to finally clinch the only domestic trophy at play will come to an end if they win in 90 or 120 minutes (a 0-0 tie would force extra time).

Caribbean

And last but not least: the lack of confirmed dates for the Portmore United-Caledonia AIA playoff demonstrates (yet again) that the CFU actually got more incompetent after Jack Warner left.

Read that again.

No, I have nothing more to add to that statement.

—

And with that, let me close by thanking you, my readers, for truly making this an interactive endeavor. Whether you wrote to encourage my work, enhance it with information relative to specific championships, challenge my assumptions and arguments or simply read and learn something new, you helped to fortify my belief that the interconnectedness of football is something to be celebrated. In our sport, everyone gets a shot at the world championship; and through the CCL, Gold Cup and qualifying for the World Cup finals, even the most nondescript side from otherwise peripheral countries in our region have the same shot at international glory as everyone else.

Yes, the first 150 minutes of the 2012-13 CONCACAF Champions League Final served to display Pedro Caixinha’s vision for Santos Laguna: a team not as spectacularly attack-minded as under previous coaches, but one based on solid and organized defending, holding on just long enough for playmaker Carlos Darwin Quintero to either score himself or set up forwards Oribe Peralta and Herculez Gomez for the decisive finish. Add in the aerial ability of Felipe Baloy (at both ends of the field), the creative contributions of Jorge Ivan “Guti” Estrada and the reliable goalkeeping of Oswaldo Sanchez, and the necessary elements to bring the first international title back to la Comarca Lagunera appeared to be in place.

But we should have seen it coming.

My colleague John Jagou rightly pointed out the acquisitions of star forwards Humberto “Chupete” Suazo and Aldo de Nigris, along with coach Victor Manuel Vucetich, as essential for explaining Monterrey’s five-year run of domestic and continental domination. Two other factors should be emphasized with respect to their most recent conquest: first, if any characteristic has marked their Champions League campaigns from 2010 to now, it has been their capacity to relentlessly hunt the remontada, the comeback from adverse and apparently insurmountable circumstances.

Seattle are only all too aware of this. Back in the 2010-11 CCL, the Sounders found themselves only a half-hour from achieving the first-ever win for a Major League Soccer club in Mexico, courtesy of a Mike Fucito brace. Then Vucetich threw on Suazo; seven minutes later, Monterrey had restored order, dismissing the Cascadians with a 3-2 victory.

Cruz Azul thought they had the regios pinned down in the semifinals of that same tournament, after a Cesar Villaluz goal at the Estadio Azul gave la Maquina the advantage on away goals (after losing the first leg 2-1 at the Tec). Then a controversial penalty was awarded, Suazo offered no pardon with his execution and Monterrey slipped through.

MLSSoccer.com personality Simon Borg assured us that Real Salt Lake had the subsequent final “in the bag” after Javier Morales and co. escaped Mexico with a 2-2 draw and the advantage on away goals. Then Fabian Espindola wasted a pair of chances to increase the hosts’ lead at the Rio Tinto, Suazo and Jesus Zavala sliced through RSL’s defense to produce a game-winner, and Jonathan Orozco kept out a late header from Jamison Olave as Monterrey earned their first continental crown.

In the following season, Comunicaciones of Guatemala briefly had the defending champion in their sights: after lackluster group-stage defeats at home to Seattle and away to the cremas, anything less than a victory in the Tec against the same opponent would have sealed an early elimination. A 3-1 triumph later, Monterrey had reclaimed the advantage on head-to-head, before winning their remaining matches to top the group.

Santos Laguna, however, had the necessary quality to threaten “King Midas” Vucetich’s reign; and after Peralta had leveled the aggregate score in the second leg of the 2011-12 Final in the Nuevo Estadio Corona, the rayados faced the challenge of regaining the lead before a capacity crowd starved for success. Rather than get overwhelmed by the momentum, they reached into their stock of composure, prevented what had been the best front line in the tournament from carving out any more chances in front of goal, and fatally punctured the home fans’ enthusiasm with a well-taken away goal from Neri Cardozo.

The LA Galaxy were certain that toppling the regional monarch was within reach, after scoring first in the 2012-13 CCL semifinal and creating three more golden opportunities to subdue their opponents. Sean Franklin, Landon Donovan and Robbie Keane all wasted chances to rout the bicampeones, though; Suazo and de Nigris showed no such forgiveness, scoring late to take the reins of the series and subdue what had been the US’s best hope of interrupting their monologue.

With all of these instances in mind, we should have seen it coming. After Santos Laguna scored twice, de Nigris finished off a cross from Jesus “Tecatito” Corona to pull one back, Neri Cardozo tucked away a rebound from a corner to tie the Final on aggregate, de Nigris rose highest to head in Suazo’s free kick for a game winner and the Chilean added the icing with an empty-net finish from a breakaway.

This latest performance was every bit worthy of a Champions League Final; and for once, the most successful team in Nuevo Leon got to lift the trophy in front of their own fans, who themselves had contributed by imposing an air of inevitability on the comeback (particularly after Cardozo’s strike). And why did Monterrey get to finish the CCL at home? Because in October 2012, when they had already guaranteed their place in the quarterfinals, Vucetich decided to go against conventional wisdom and bring Suazo (the highest-paid footballer in Mexico) down to Panama for the last group-stage match against the eliminated Chorrillo. The visitors ran riot in the Estadio Rommel Fernandez, Suazo bagged a hat-trick and Monterrey snatched the top ranking among group winners with a 6-0 drubbing. Antonio Mohamed and Bruce Arena, take note: under the current format, the CCL is a tournament that must be won from start to finish. Mind you, with his team practically in the Mexican Clausura playoffs, Vucetich may well be back next season for yet another course in continental campaign management.

For now, let us congratulate the victors, who will once again represent our corner of the world in December in Morocco:

CF Monterrey (MEX)

Qualification: MEX4, 2012 Clausura runner-up (2-0 aggregate over Club América in the seimifinals)

2012-13 CCL Group 7:

5-0 vs. Chorrillo FC (PAN)
1-0 @ Municipal (GUA)
3-0 vs. Municipal (GUA)
6-0 @ Chorrillo FC (PAN)

Finish: 12 points, 1st place among group winners

Quarterfinal:

3-1 @ Xelajú MC (GUA)
1-1 vs. Xelajú MC (GUA)
4-2 aggregate

Semifinal:

2-1 @ LA Galaxy (USA)
1-0 vs. LA Galaxy (USA)
3-1 aggregate

Final:

0-0 @ Santos Laguna (MEX)
4-2 vs. Santos Laguna (MEX)
4-2 aggregate

—

Let me finish up with a few updates on qualifying competitions for next season’s Champions League. The semifinals are currently underway in the Honduran Clausura: Real Sociedad hammered Victoria 3-0 yesterday evening, Platense will host the first leg of their series with Olimpia today at 9:30 p.m. (all times EDT), and the return legs will take place on Sunday at 4:00 and 6:00 p.m., respectively. It should be noted that based on the new standard for deciding the Central American participants in the CCL, if Olimpia manage to add this Clausura to their ever-growing list of domestic achievements, the HON2 spot would be passed down to Victoria (second place in the full-year table on 56 points).

The liguilla will also begin in the Panamanian Clausura on Saturday, as Apertura winners Arabe Unido host San Francisco at 5:00 p.m. before Sporting San Miguelito and Tauro face off at the Rommel Fernandez at 9:00 p.m., in the first leg of their respective semifinals. If Arabe were to double up on domestic titles the PAN2 spot would fall to a team that missed out on these playoffs: the recently-promoted Rio Abajo (second in the full-year table on 58 points). I should also clarify that while the Honduran league awards aggregate ties in the semifinals to the higher seed (Real Sociedad and Olimpia, respectively), no such tiebreakers are in effect in Panama (similar to MLS).

Finally, we now know that the Vancouver Whitecaps and the Montreal Impact1 will contest the two-leg 2013 Canadian Championship Final, on May 15 in the Stade Saputo and May 29 at BC Place, while Jamaica’s Portmore United and Caledonia AIA of Trinidad and Tobago will play a home-and-away series for the Caribbean’s last CCL berth (dates TBA). At this point, the only qualifier that may still need to be determined by early June will be the second team from Guatemala, whose Clausura regular season will have just finished up by then.

1 – I would provide further comment on how they got to this point, but the Montreal Bureau of the Quebec Coroner’s Office has yet to provide details of Toronto FC’s particularly brutal demise.

The correct answer remains the Canadian Championship, as the Voyageurs’ Cup winner will claim their country’s sole berth after all of four matches. The Caribbean Football Union (CFU) apparently decided to compete for that particular honor, with the ongoing CFU Club Champions’ Cup to send two group winners to the CCL in a span of five days; other than Antigua Barracuda, though, at least the participating clubs had to conquer their domestic leagues (or finish as runners-up) to reach this point.

After all but Antigua contested tournament openers yesterday evening, the standings are as follows:

Group A

W Connection (TRI) 3
Antigua Barracuda (ATG) 0
Caledonia AIA (TRI) 0

Group B

Valencia (HAI) 3
Portmore United (JAM) 3
Boys’ Town (JAM) 0
Bayamón FC (PUR) 0

Before covering the remaining matchdays, I should point out one important aspect of the competition for which I must refer to precedent, given the lack of readily-available regulations (even the CFU admit that their internet presence is lacking): Caribbean footballing events have tended to follow the CONCACAF standard (save the next Gold Cup) of using head-to-head as the first tiebreaker. Assuming that it still holds, we may discover the next Champions League qualifier by this time tomorrow.

On Sunday, Caledonia will look to pick themselves off the mat as they host the Barracudas at 5:00 p.m. (all times EDT). Of course, neither team finds itself in line to top Group A outright; but a second-straight defeat would condemn the defending Caribbean champions to an early elimination.

Later, at 7:00 p.m., the victors from Matchday 1 will fight for supremacy in Group B as Portmore United receive Valencia, while Boys’ Town will take on Bayamon at 9:00 p.m. Again, if the precedent holds and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker, then the winner of the first match will win the group under the following conditions: if Portmore hold serve, then any result other than a Bayamon victory will allow them to guarantee Champions League football on Jamaican soil for the first time. However, if Valencia manage to overcome the hosts, they will simply need Bayamon to prevent Boys’ Town from claiming three points in order to earn their maiden appearance on the continental stage – and a welcome distraction for their fans in Léogâne, a town still reeling from the effects of the 2010 earthquake.

Unless one of those combinations pans out, everything will be decided on Tuesday: at 6:00 p.m., W Connection and Antigua Barracuda will close out Group A, while Group B will culminate in a 7:00 p.m. Portmore-Bayamon showdown and a 9:00 p.m. match between Valencia and Boys’ Town. I have yet to find any broadcast information from Trinidad and Tobago, but we will be able to follow proceedings in Group B through both KLAS sports radio and Bayamon’s Twitter account.

Lastly, before the Caribbean clubs attempt to board, another passenger may move up to first class: on Sunday, Comunicaciones will visit Juventud Escuintleca at 2:00 p.m., an hour after Heredia (the last remaining pretenders to first place in the full-year table) face off with Municipal at the Estadio Mateo Flores. The cremas have won just two of their last 10 league matches; luckily, if their archrivals prevent Heredia from escaping Guatemala City with a triumph, the GUA1 spot will be theirs by default. Otherwise, only a return to winning ways will end the waiting game…which still remains a matter of time, unless Heredia intend to close a 17-point gap with six fixtures left.

Update: I would be remiss not to mention that the Canadian semifinals will continue on Wednesday, as Toronto FC look to defend their 2-0 lead in Montreal against the Impact at 7:30 p.m. Later, at 9:00 p.m., the first leg of the Honduran Clausura semifinals between Victoria and the higher-ranked Real Sociedad will take place in La Ceiba, and Vancouver Whitecaps hold serve against FC Edmonton (nursing a 2-3 deficit) at 10:00 p.m. Simultaneous with the latter game, Monterrey and Santos Laguna will contest the 2012-13 CCL Final at the Tec; follow a 0-0 draw in Torreon, a victory for either side will suffice, while another goalless 90 minutes will guarantee overtime and a tie with goals favors the visiting guerreros.

CCL 2013-14 Qualifiers

1. Sporting Kansas City [USA4]
2. San Jose Earthquakes [USA2]
3. Houston Dynamo [USA3]
4. LA Galaxy [USA1]
5. Toluca FC [MEX3]
6. Club Tijuana [MEX1]
7. Árabe Unido [PAN1]
8. Isidro Metapán [SLV1 or SLV2]
9. Olimpia [HON1]
10. Comunicaciones [GUA1]
11. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
12. Real Estelí [NCA]
13. Belmopan Bandits [BLZ] *
14. W Connection (TRI) [CFU]
15. Valencia (HAI) [CFU]

I would have done all that, but time lost having to figure out why a Caribbean-themed restaurant temporarily lost my reservation for an important meeting later this week severely limited the time I have to provide some remarks on tonight’s events…rather appropriate, sadly, given current events in the Caribbean Football Union.

Let’s get to it…

Before the 2012-13 CCL Final kicks off, a few qualifying matches towards the 2013-14 edition must be addressed. First, the 2013 Canadian Championship commences with the first legs of home-and-away semifinals, as Toronto FC receive the Montreal Impact at 7:30 p.m. (all times EDT). Although the hosts have won the Voyageurs’ Cup four years in a row, a poor run in MLS last year relegated them to the third seed; and with away goals counting, they will be primarily concerned with keeping their archrivals from punishing them via incisive counterattacks and grabbing whatever lead they can get before the return leg in Quebec.

Later, our attention will turn to the penultimate matchday in the Panamanian Clausura regular season, as Apertura champions Arabe Unido will attempt to tuck away their country’s top seed in the next Champions League. They currently hover above Rio Abajo in the full-year table with 58 points to 55 for the challengers, who are still defying expectations in their first year in the top flight. Both face challenging visits against the other sides currently occupying playoff spots: Arabe Unido will square off against Tauro FC, while Rio Abajo will travel to la Chorrera to take on San Francisco. With everyone else out of the picture, the colonenses will emerge as PAN1 for next year as long as they outperform the current runners-up, i.e. by defeating Tauro if the monjes keep Rio Abajo from doing the same, or drawing the toros de Pedregal if San Francisco are triumphant.

Afterwards, at 9:30 p.m., the Canadian Championship continues as FC Edmonton host the Vancouver Whitecaps, who enter the tournament as the top seed by virtue of overcoming Montreal in the 2012 MLS regular season table. Thus, should they avoid what would be the biggest upset in the tournament’s history and move on, the Voyageurs’ Cup would be awarded at BC Place – the first time since the Canadian Soccer Association imposed the current knockout format that the competition would reach its climax anywhere other than BMO Field.

Last, but not least…

Wednesday, April 24 at 10:00 p.m.

vs.

Let me simply share what Monterrey Club President Luis Miguel Salvador had to say about this game:

Nosotros nos inclinamos por la CONCACAF, que es nuestro partido inmediato y tiene una repercusión, es una caja de resonancia a nivel mundial y te puedo apostar que muchos equipos quisieran estar en el lugar que está Santos y Monterrey…

Translation:

“We’re aiming for CONCACAF [rather than getting distracted with the Saturday derby against Tigres],which is our most immediate game and it has repercussions, it is a sounding board on a global level and I can bet you that many teams want to be where Santos and Monterrey are…”

I could not agree more.

Now, you may remember me stating that the CFU Club Champions Cup would also begin today. As it turns out, CONCACAF did not release any official confirmation of this event for a reason: between last-minute withdrawals and the CFU leadership dropping the ball on tournament logistics while focusing on last week’s congress in Panama City (their staff in Antigua and Barbuda apparently are just there for show), even the teams scheduled to host the first-round groups are not exactly sure what’s going on.

UPDATE: With Baltimore of Haiti apparently dropping out at the last minute, CONCACAF has revealed that only seven teams will participate in the finals, with the hosts of each group entering two representatives.

Group 1 (in Trinidad and Tobago)

W Connection (TRI)
Caledonia AIA (TRI)
Antigua Barracuda (ATG)

Group 2 (in Jamaica)

Boys Town Club (JAM)
Portmore United (JAM)
Valencia (HAI)
Bayamón FC (PUR)

The tournament opener will take place on Friday at 6:00 p.m., as local sides W Connection and Caledonia AIA square off. At 7:00 p.m., Bayamon and Valencia will commence proceedings in Group B (TotalMixRadio may provide audio coverage of the game), while the two Jamaican sides will cross swords at 9:00 p.m.

We will cover these matches in more depth tomorrow, but two aspects of its format bear mentioning: first, whoever wins Group B will be a debutant in the next CCL – and unless Bayamon take the honors, a new country will get to experience the continental stage (Jamaica’s Harbour View never got to play their home leg against Pumas in 2008). Second, we now know that the third-place playoff will take the form of a home-and-away series.

—

CCL 2013-14 Qualifiers

1. Sporting Kansas City [USA4]
2. San Jose Earthquakes [USA2]
3. Houston Dynamo [USA3]
4. LA Galaxy [USA1]
5. Toluca FC [MEX3]
6. Club Tijuana [MEX1]
7. Árabe Unido [PAN1]
8. Isidro Metapán [SLV1 or SLV2]
9. Olimpia [HON1]
10. Comunicaciones [GUA1 or GUA2]
11. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
12. Real Estelí [NCA]
13. Belmopan Bandits [BLZ] *

The result of their efforts played a clear second fiddle to the revelation of multiple instances of fraud, deception and outright embezzlement under the Jack Warner/Chuck Blazer administration in yesterday’s Ordinary Congress in Panama City, as well as the election of US Soccer Federation President Sunil Gulati to the FIFA Executive Committee. In the official summary, though, CONCACAF also noted that the French overseas departments, along with Sint Maarten, had all been promoted to “full member” status, while the island of Bonaire joined as an associate member. Assuming no last-minute surprise objections from France or the Netherlands, Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Saint-Martin and Sint Maarten will be approved as FIFA members at the May 30 Congress in Mauritius, raising the number of CONCACAF members eligible to participate in World Cup qualifying to 40.

These developments are hardly expected to immediately impact the main competitions in our region, as associate members have always retained the right to enter qualifying for the CONCACAF Champions League and the Gold Cup. As for World Cup qualifying, assuming no alterations in the format for the 2018 finals in Russia, the newcomers could be incorporated by simply expanding the first round to 20 teams. The likes of Nicaragua would probably not be thrilled to get dragged down into the early home-and-away playoffs; and if the Francophone members climb their way up the FIFA rankings through strong performances in the 2014 Caribbean Cup (and perhaps the 2015 Gold Cup), the US Virgin Islands and Dominica could face an uphill struggle just to match their elementary-round appearances from two years ago.

But what if the format has to change? With FIFA President Sepp Blatter in attendance yesterday, reporters made sure to inquire as to the possibility of CONCACAF gaining a fourth automatic berth in the World Cup finals. While avoiding any premature promises, Blatter did confirm that the issue would be resolved in the next year; given the anticipated increase in representation in the FIFA Congress, Webb will consider himself entitled to demand World Cup spots for at least 10 percent of his confederation, just as every other one (save Oceania) enjoys.

The number of overall World Cup berths is unlike to change anytime soon, though…nor should it: a 32-team tournament allows for a direct and simple elimination process, and the quality of the teams missing out does not warrant an expansion. With requests for extra World Cup spots thus taking place in a zero-sum context, which confederation could reasonably give up a half-spot in CONCACAF’s favor? From a competitive and political standpoint, there is absolutely no basis for demanding anything from UEFA or CONMEBOL; the OFC only has 0.5 spots to call its own; and with over 50 members in FIFA, the CAF is unlikely to face any opposition to retaining five spots.

That just leaves the AFC, whose 4.5 spots are difficult to justify. Since it gained an extra place for the 2002 World Cup on home soil, it has regularly sent at least one outright whipping boy to each finals (China and Saudi Arabia in 2002, Saudi Arabia in 2006 and North Korea in 2010), and the fifth-place team from Asian qualifying has not won a single Intercontinental Playoff in the last decade (including Bahrain getting eliminated 2-1 on aggregate by Trinidad and Tobago in 2005). Perhaps the strongest case that Webb could make before FIFA is that CONCACAF and the AFC should both have four spots.

Besides condemning the OFC winners to permanent playoffs with a CONMEBOL team (I’m sure Australia could share plenty of horror stories with their Kiwi brethren of trips to Uruguay), CONCACAF gaining four spots for Russia 2018 would also necessitate a new qualifying competition, since the Hexagonal would be rendered obsolete with more than half of the participants qualifying directly for the Finals. Based on the proposal drawn up by Blazer ahead of the failed effort to negotiate an extra automatic berth for Brazil 2014, I foresee one of two formats being adopted if Webb and General Secretary Enrique Sanz are more successful.

—

1. CONCACAF could simply take up the Blazer model (minus the name) with the following stages.

First round – The lowest 16 teams (based on FIFA ranking) get paired up for home-and-away playoffs.

Second round – The eight first-round survivors and the 24 participants with a first-round bye get drawn into eight groups of four; top two in each group move on.

Third round – The 16 survivors get drawn into four groups of four; top two in each group move on.

Final round – The eight survivors get drawn into two groups of four; top two in each group qualify for the World Cup finals.

2. In order to avoid having Mexico pound on the likes of Aruba and the Turks and Caicos Islands, CONCACAF could introduce multiple expansions to the current format.

First round – The lowest 32 teams (based on FIFA ranking) get drawn into eight groups of four; only the group winners move on.

Second round – The eight survivors and the remaining eight participants with a first-round bye get drawn into four groups of four; top two in each group move on.

Final round – The eight survivors get drawn into two groups of four; top two in each group qualify for the World Cup finals.

—

In short, while the introduction of five new full members in CONCACAF and FIFA will not significantly alter the competitive balance of power in continental (or CFU) tournaments, their presence in FIFA may provide the necessary backing for our region to obtain a fourth automatic spot in future World Cup finals. As CONCACAF revealed in 2011, though, the Hex’s demise would be an immediate consequence of such a political conquest. We have been warned.

—

Lastly, another Central American Apertura winner could grab a top seed in the next Champions League this evening.

Down in Guatemala, Comunicaciones took advantage of the irregular start to the Clausura regular season for archrivals Municipal and 2012-13 CCL quarterfinalists Xelaju to build up a significant lead in the full-year table; and heading into this weekend, only Heredia could catch up to them, with 60 points to 78 for the cremas with seven matches left. At the time of writing, Heredia have just rescued a 2-2 draw against Universidad San Carlos; thus, they would only be able to reach a maximum of 79 points. The assignment for Comunicaciones, then, is simple: all they have to do is defeat Suchitepequez at home at 8:00 p.m. (all times EDT), and they will enter the next CCL as the head of their group. Then again, with only two points needed from the next seven games, Comunicaciones claiming the GUA1 berth appears a matter of when rather than if.

CCL 2013-14 Qualifiers

1. Sporting Kansas City [USA4]
2. San Jose Earthquakes [USA2]
3. Houston Dynamo [USA3]
4. LA Galaxy [USA1]
5. Toluca FC [MEX2 or MEX3]
6. Club Tijuana [MEX1]
7. Árabe Unido [PAN1 or PAN2]
8. Isidro Metapán [SLV1 or SLV2]
9. Olimpia [HON1]
10. Comunicaciones [GUA1 or GUA2]
11. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
12. Real Estelí [NCA]
13. Belmopan Bandits [BLZ] *

Many of you may wonder if I hit my head during the process of writing this piece. Back in 2007, though, quite a few Major League Soccer aficionados were pounding their chests and claiming supremacy following the group stage of the inaugural Superliga: Chivas, América and Morelia had all bowed out early, leaving Pachuca as the last Mexican pretender to the championship. Of course, the tuzos went on to win the whole thing, with the late Miguel Calero shredding the pro-MLS storylines by stopping an attempted “Panenka” by Joseph Ngwenya in the semifinal against the Houston Dynamo and parrying away what would have been the tournament-winning penalty by the LA Galaxy’s Landon Donovan.

Fast-forward six years, and this boast has largely been condemned to the dustbin: in the aftermath of the 2012-13 CONCACAF Champions League semifinals, Mexico is now guaranteed to win a world-record eighth-straight continental club title, while its northern neighbor has only one runner-up to show for itself in the same period. The Seattle Sounders did come within a goal of doubling that figure, but the 1-1 draw earned in Torreon allowed Santos Laguna to progress 2-1 on aggregate. The LA Galaxy, on the other hand, never looked close to recovering from the 1-2 setback they suffered at home against Monterrey, only troubling Juan de Dios Ibarra on one occasion at the Tec.

While the two norteños prepare to reprise the previous CCL Final, and reignite the debate over whether there exists a rivalry between them (if it does, then brace yourselves: the rayados will face no fewer than four clásicos in only 13 days), others have taken to offering explanations for why MLS has failed to interrupt the Liga MX’s string of Club World Cup appearances. Donovan pointed to the sizable difference in salaries as the key factor, while ESPN’s David Faitelson singled out the spring-fall calendar as the main obstacle to regional success for US and Canadian representatives.

In my opinion, though, the best inference from these semifinals came from MLSSoccer’s “Armchair Analyst” Matthew Doyle. As regular readers know, I tend to focus more on the stories generated by and around the game than on breaking down the action itself (in Sports Illustrated terms, I would bear a closer resemblance to Grant Wahl than Jonathan Wilson); so it brought no small comfort to see someone with a significantly higher tactical literacy than myself also identify finishing as the variable that best explains these outcomes. In truth, this problem has plagued the US ever since Brian McBride hung up his cleats. For instance, the 2007 Gold Cup Final could easily have ended up 4-1 in the hosts’ favor, but a cheeky Brian Ching flick past Oswaldo Sanchez that hit the post and a wide-open DaMarcus Beasley shot that slammed off the crossbar left the US within a late Adolfo Bautista chance of extra time.

The scarcity of reliable US finishers has been repeatedly exposed in the CCL era. To date, not a single US player has won the CCL Golden Boot; in the knockout rounds, only Steven Lenhart (Columbus Crew vs. Toluca FC in 2009) and Herculez Gomez have left memorable performances, and the latter was apparently considered surplus to requirements for both Kansas City and the Colorado Rapids prior to his revenge tours with Santos Laguna. On the club level, this deficiency can be addressed by bringing in foreign talent; unfortunately for Seattle and LA, Obafemi Martins came in late (after a protracted contract struggle with his former club) and missed out through injury, while Robbie Keane wasted a golden opportunity in the first leg against Monterrey and spent most of the return match wondering why referee Roberto Moreno was not at his beck and call.

Speaking of which: to any self-identifying Eurosnobs out there, please ask Keane how easy it is to play in CONCACAF. Fortunately, the Irishman has managed to avoid such shenanigans on national-team duty, what with the superior standard of refereeing in his home continent.

—

The current Champions League will resume in just under two weeks, but there is plenty of qualifying action to fill the void in regional activity. First, down in Belize, Copa Centroamericana hero Deon McCaulay has led the Belmopan Bandits on a rampage, and the Opening Season champions maintain a nine-point lead over the Belize Defense Force in the full-year table with only three matchdays left in the Closing Season. The Bandits will receive FC Belize on Saturday at 9:30 p.m. (all times EDT), and any result other than a loss will guarantee them the right to Champions League participation…if Football Federation of Belize president Ruperto Vicente follows through on his oft-repeated promise to bring the FFB Stadium up to standard.

Later on, Nicaraguan Apertura winners Real Esteli will face similar circumstances in their visit to Managua FC at 10:00 p.m. Fresh off an eye-opening 12-0 win over the coachless and relegation-threatened Xilotepelt, and with a nine-point lead in the full-year table, Esteli will also simply need to avoid defeat to guarantee yet another year of continental exposure.

If either of the defending league champions fail to get the job done on their own, a slip-up from the last remaining chaser would gift them the CCL berth at the second opportunity. Diriangen must pull out a derby win over Walter Ferreti at 7:00 p.m. to maintain hopes of interrupting Esteli’s international monologue, while the Belize Defence Force will need to defeat San Felipe Barcelona on Sunday at 5:30 p.m. to keep up their pursuit of the Bandits. I am almost 100 percent certain that FutbolNica Radio will carry the Nicaraguan matches; unless someone provides the corresponding information for Belize, though, we will have to be patient until national newspaper Amandala reveals the results on Tuesday.

Lastly, while we await confirmation from either the Caribbean Football Union or CONCACAF (especially on the question of CCL eligibility), Socawarriors.net has provided the first glimpse of how this year’s CFU Club Champions Cup will work. I will finish by providing the groups, and hopefully the schedule will be released in the next week; the biggest takeaways, though, are the following:

- The notable absence of Jamaican clubs since 2009 has finally come to an end, as Boys Town Club will act as hosts in Group A.

- On the other hand, the dormant Puerto Rico Islanders’ record of participating in every CCL tournament since 2008 (only Olimpia and Isidro Metapan have accomplished the same) will also cease, as they have either not registered or failed to receive CFU approval to continue their sub-regional protagonism.

- Lastly, following CONCACAF’s habit of minimizing fixtures in unprofitable tournaments, this CFU Club Champions Cup will be the shortest one ever. It starts with two groups of four; the group winners qualify directly for the CCL, while the runners-up will play off for the last available spot (the article does not clarify whether this would take place through a home-and-away series or a one-off at a neutral site).

Group A

Boys Town Club (JAM)
Caledonia AIA (TRI)
Valencia (HAI)
Antigua Barracuda (ATG)

Group B

W Connection (TRI)
Baltimore (HAI)
Bayamón FC (PUR)
Inter Moengotapoe (SUR)

—

CCL 2013-14 Qualifiers

1. Sporting Kansas City [USA4]
2. San Jose Earthquakes [USA2]
3. Houston Dynamo [USA3]
4. LA Galaxy [USA1]
5. Toluca FC [MEX2 or MEX3]
6. Club Tijuana [MEX1]
7. Árabe Unido [PAN1 or PAN2]
8. Isidro Metapán [SLV1 or SLV2]
9. Olimpia [HON1]
10. Comunicaciones [GUA1 or GUA2]
11. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
12. Real Estelí [NCA]
13. Belmopan Bandits [BLZ] *

Three times in history, US clubs have eliminated Mexican opposition in home-and-away series.

The next US team to achieve both at the same time, however, will be the first.

If the LA Galaxy or Seattle Sounders aim to end Mexico’s iron-clad grip on the CONCACAF Champions League trophy, they have no choice but to rewrite history in the second legs of this season’s semifinals, the schedule for which is as follows (home team first, all times EDT).

Tuesday, April 9:

Santos Laguna (MEX) vs. Seattle Sounders (USA), 8:00 p.m.

Wednesday, April 10:

CF Monterrey (MEX) vs. LA Galaxy (USA), 10:00 p.m.

In case you were wondering about the level of concern among the Liga MX sides…

Yes, that would be Santos Laguna coach and part-time GQ model Pedro Caixinha inviting the guerrero faithful to donate teddy bears at the game. If you will allow this tangent: I have to admit, a small part of me wants to see a fan toss one on the field, if only for the sight of a professional athlete complaining with a straight face about having a teddy bear thrown at him.

The club can afford such a lighthearted mood thanks to the 1-0 win last week at CenturyLink Field, only their second victory on US soil in the CCL era. Even if two of the attackers charged with tormenting Seattle on their last visit (Daniel Ludueña and Cristian Suarez) have since moved on to Pachuca, tomorrow’s hosts will continue to boast a significant advantage in offensive firepower. While Eddie Johnson’s two goals against Tigres and the Portland Timbers sum up Seattle’s entire front-line production over seven games this year, Carlos Darwin Quintero remains one of the most innovative playmakers in the region, and the forward pairing of Herculez Gomez and Oribe Peralta hardly requires introduction. Unless Djimi Traore has another goal-of-the-year candidate in him, the Sounders will likely live or die on set-piece opportunities…not necessarily a great source of hope, considering the quality of service in the first leg (unless Mauro Rosales regains his form quickly).

Speaking of dynamic forward pairings…

Now that they have been properly introduced, Omar Gonzalez will be fully aware of the need to concentrate for 90 minutes on keeping Aldo de Nigris at bay, while the midfield duo of Juninho and Marcelo Sarvas will attempt to shadow Humberto Suazo, the reigning MVP of CCL knockout rounds if there ever was one. Fortunately for the Galaxy, caution need not be a factor in their preparations: the minimum assignment is to score twice and win, regardless of if the rayados find the net (although a 2-1 triumph would send the series to overtime). Monterrey have only lost once at home in the CCL era, however, and coach Victor Manuel Vucetich has demonstrated over the last three years an uncanny ability to manage the tempo of these series, turning up the attacking pressure just when the opponents appear primed to assume to the role of protagonists.

On both sides of the Rio Grande, a repeat of the last CCL Final is widely viewed as the most likely outcome following this matchday; considering that the norteños topped the ranking of group winners by some distance and have only failed to win CCL matches at home twice in the last two seasons, I have no intention of bucking the consensus. Eventually, though, if MLS truly desires to contest the Liga MX’s hegemony in our corner of the world, this kind of situation will have to be considered salvageable; we will find out if either of the West Coast clubs are able to change the conversation.

At the beginning of May, only one of the remaining participants will be able to claim the fifth CCL title and make plans to contend for the world championship – during the UEFA Champions League prime-time hours, given that Morocco is in the same time zone as Western Europe (I’m willing to bet that viewership in our region will be at an all-time high). Securing another chance at continental glory, however, remains on the to-do list for the Mexican sides; and as we saw last year, the Seattle Sounders fell victim to the US Open Cup runner-up curse, rendering tomorrow’s showdown their last guaranteed continental appearance until after the World Cup finals.

While the last Mexican clubs to join LA in the 2013-14 competition will be determined next month, the first qualifier of the year may emerge this Wednesday. Down in Nicaragua, Apertura champions and three-time CCL participants Real Esteli currently sit on a comfortable lead in the full-year table with 47 points to 40 for old-hands Diriangen. The two leaders will host the relegation-threatened Xilotepelt and Deportivo Ocotal, respectively, on Wednesday at 5:00 p.m.; and with only four matchdays left in the Clausura regular season, el Tren del Norte will be able to put itself out of reach if they win and the caciques drop all three points in Diriamba. FutbolNica will likely provide radio coverage of the games, and Real Esteli-Xilotepelt may also be broadcast on TeleNorte.

CCL 2013-14 Qualifiers

1. Sporting Kansas City [USA4]
2. San Jose Earthquakes [USA2]
3. Houston Dynamo [USA3]
4. LA Galaxy [USA1]
5. Toluca FC [MEX2 or MEX3]
6. Club Tijuana [MEX1]
7. Árabe Unido [PAN1 or PAN2]
8. Isidro Metapán [SLV1 or SLV2]
9. Olimpia [HON1]
10. Comunicaciones [GUA1 or GUA2]
11. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]

An analysis based only on that fundamental maxim of football admittedly borders on naivete; but in the case of this week’s CONCACAF Champions League matches, it offers the best and simplest explanation for why the remaining US sides will have to fight for dear life in Mexico, while defending bicampeones Monterrey continue to dream of finally winning the trophy in front of their home fans.

The short-term reason for how things currently stand in the 2012-13 CCL semifinals can be found in how the front lines of the respective teams performed. On Tuesday, the Seattle Sounders started Eddie Johnson, Obafemi Martins and David Estrada…in the infirmary, leaving Sammy Ochoa as the sole forward. His horrendous shot in the second half, so laughably poor that it got included in the official highlights (usually blooper-free), summed up his effectiveness on the night, although Sigi Schmid’s decision to punish several starters for poor performances in domestic play left only Mario Martinez available behind him to inject some creativity into the attack. On the other side, while Oribe Peralta was largely marked out of the game, Carlos Darwin Quintero tormented Seattle’s defense on multiple occasions and forced Marcus Hahnemann to parry one of his shots right into the path of Herculez Gomez, who pegged the rebound into an empty net.

If only Robbie Keane were so clinical: a year after letting Toronto FC off the hook by attempting to lob Milos Kocic from close range, the LA Galaxy forward received a cross from Mike Magee to set up a 1-on-1 with Monterrey’s second-string keeper, Juan de Dios Ibarra. If he had scored, the Galaxy would have gained a morale-strengthening 2-0 lead; however, Keane opted for a low finish, allowing Ibarra to palm the ball right around the post for a corner. Before him, Sean Franklin and Landon Donovan had also pardoned the rayados by allowing gilt-edged chances to go begging; as for the visitors, the forward pairing of Humberto Suazo and Aldo de Nigris functioned as well as ever in continental play, with both taking advantage of errors in defensive marking to maintain Monterrey’s impressive record of winning every Champions League match they have played on US soil.

The difference in efficiency in front of goal further explains why both US clubs will have to finish their respective series on the road. The tournament’s format was codified and revealed well in advance of the opening matchday, with the knockout-round bracket to be set via group-stage performance. Specifically, it would reward the best group winner with home-field advantage (i.e. hosting the second leg of each series) through the Final, while the second seed would earn the privilege through the semifinal. The path to these berths, readily available to all participants, was clear: win all your games, and run up the score whenever possible.

Monterrey had previously won just once in the CCL by four or more goals (when they hammered Herediano 5-0 in 2011), and Municipal did manage to restrict them to respectable scorelines in the current edition; but the regios gleefully bombarded the unprepared and inexperienced Chorrillo to pad their goal differential. Santos Laguna followed a similar blueprint, overcoming Toronto and mercilessly thrashing Aguila. Seattle, on the other hand, could only manage a pair of 3-1 victories over debutants Caledonia AIA, and the Galaxy’s string of victories got cut short with the 0-0 draw in Bayamon. Let this be a lesson to those who will take the continental stage in July (San Jose, Kansas City, I’m looking at you): in your group, if you have a chance to bury an opponent in goals, do it.

—

Speaking of spelling things out ahead of time, kudos to CONCACAF for informing us in advance of the tiebreaker changes for the next Gold Cup. Just so that everyone is clear: goal differential, then goals scored are the first tiebreakers if teams finish even on points in the same group, with head-to-head employed afterwards. As far as I can tell, though, all other tournaments under the CONCACAF umbrella (including the CCL, youth qualifying tournaments, the Copa Centroamericana and the Caribbean Cup) will continue to prioritize head-to-head results.

A few more novelties in the 2013 Gold Cup regulations deserve mention:

- The participating teams will be able to submit 32-man preliminary player lists, and those who reach the quarterfinals will be able to switch out up to four players from their 23-man tournament roster.

- According to Article II, Subpoint 1, CONCACAF members are now obligated to participate in the Gold Cup at least once every four years, or else face suspension and a 10,000 USD re-entry fine. To which I can only say: it’s about time the likes of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the US Virgin Islands and Anguilla got off the bench and took their chances in the Caribbean Cup, so that their national teams can have regular activity outside of World Cup qualifying. Otherwise, what exactly is the point of FIFA providing them 250,000 USD year after year? (Don’t answer that, Bill.)

- And curiously, the first page states that “This is the Qualifying Tournament for the FIFA Confederations Cup.” Unless the suggestion of biennial Gold Cup winners playing off for the Confederations Cup berth got approved behind closed doors, I’ll chalk this one up to a clerical error in updating the 2011 document.

UPDATE: A one-game playoff between the 2013 and 2015 Gold Cup winners for the 2017 Confederations Cup berth (assuming no back-to-back winner) has been established, so now all Gold Cups count. Well played, Gulati…

Lastly, do you get the feeling that something is missing? Like, you know, an announcement on the CFU Club Champions Cup, seeing as we are only two months away from early June (when the CCL draw was conducted last year)? Strangely, neither CONCACAF, nor the CFU’s Facebook pages (their regular website is under construction, appropriately), have provided any announcements whatsoever, with only FutbolBoricua revealing that the 2013 edition will begin for FC Bayamon on April 24. Who knows, maybe Gordon Derrick and co. have been held up with defining transparent eligibility and tiebreaker criteria…one hopes.

To which I can only reply: where have you been the last four years?

I can count on one hand the instances in which CONCACAF Champions League matches were rescheduled in one form or another since 2008. In the first year of the competition, the home leg of the series between Harbour View of Jamaica and Pumas was canceled, and Houston Dynamo’s group-stage match with Luis Angel Firpo of El Salvador postponed, due to the effects of hurricane season; in 2011, Tempete of Haiti played both legs of their series with Morelia in Mexico given the post-earthquake conditions in Port-au-Prince, and the Comunicaciones-Herediano and Toronto FC-FC Dallas matches were suspended and replayed the following morning after lightning had been spotted.

Other than these cases in which player safety was blatantly affected, CONCACAF’s MO has been to allow games to continue through inclement weather, no matter the impact on the quality of play. Whether one thinks back to the Puerto Rico Islanders’ victory over Santos Laguna in 2008, that Cruz Azul-Real Salt Lake showdown in 2010, the Columbus Crew’s trip to Guatemala in the same tournament or even the World Cup qualifier between Guatemala and Antigua and Barbuda last year, CONCACAF commissioners (before the start) and referees (during the 90 minutes) have consistently approved matches played on waterlogged fields, mud pits and de facto water polo venues.

The reason for this policy is that given traveling conditions and costs (remember, CONCACAF provides 40,000 USD travel grants for the away team in every CCL fixture), it is considered preferable to get the game overwith, rather than reschedule and have the visitors arrange yet another expensive outing on either their or CONCACAF’s dime. So with respect to last night’s affair: what did you expect?

By the way, Monsieur Joseph Blatter: this is why Major League Soccer (and practically every other league in the US and Canada) adheres to a spring-fall season.

On to the Hexagonal itself: after two matchdays, the table has the appearance of a billiards game between two novices struggling to knock around the balls with the initial strike. Only two games have ended in victories (with the US involved in both), and only three points separate sixth place from first. With this in mind, I decided to try something different and judge yesterday’s results based on how well they would have been received in the respective home countries.

HAPPIEST FANS OF THE ROUND

Panama

Yes, their counterparts in the US are breathing heavy sighs of relief after a Clint Dempsey goal dispersed the doomsday atmosphere that had hung over the team over the past week. But heading into yesterday’s visit to the Office in Kingston, the canaleros found themselves in a more precarious position, after letting a 2-0 lead slip through their fingers against Costa Rica. A further setback against Jamaica would have revived the concerns over Panama’s ability to compete at this level; although down 0-1 at halftime, Blas Perez and co. regrouped, pushed forward and equalized through an opportunistic Luis Henriquez shot from beyond the penalty area. The point extracted from their first outing must have carried special significance for coach Julio Cesar Dely Valdes: in only two games, Panama have already matched their total haul from the 2005 Hexagonal, and will almost surely surpass it as they continue to hunt down a first-ever appearance in the World Cup finals. Speaking of which: thanks to results elsewhere, they are currently sitting in position to qualify.

While they celebrate having established themselves as a force to be respected in this round, another group wonders why their team has yet to overwhelm their inferior opposition.

ANGRIEST FANS OF THE ROUND

Mexico

After crushing rivals en route to the 2011 Gold Cup title, winning Olympic gold and dominating Group B in the semifinal round of World Cup qualifying, Mexican fans had convinced themselves that el Tri had graduated from CONCACAF football. The Hex would only serve as a series of formalities en route to the anticipated quinto partido and, why not, a Bulgaria- or Croatia-like run to the latter stages of the World Cup finals in Brazil.

Unfortunately, the perceived minnows surrounding them have yet to play along. After the Jamaicans nearly embarrassed Jose Manuel “Chepo” de la Torre’s side at the Azteca, Carlos Costly led a furious Honduran comeback in San Pedro Sula by heading in a corner kick and winning a penalty for Jerry Bengtson to dispatch. Francsico “Maza” Rodriguez, who flubbed his assignments on both occasions, will be mercifully suspended for their Clásico against the US on Tuesday; at the other end of the field, el Chepo is still struggling to recreate the dynamism of the Gold Cup front line, with Pablo Barrera just now getting back to playing regularly with Cruz Azul, Aldo de Nigris no longer considered at national-team level and Oribe Peralta failing to partner effectively with Javier Hernandez. Fortunately, Chicharito’s poaching skills have dulled little in spite of an uphill battle for playing time at Manchester United, and Giovani dos Santos has proven reliable at tormenting defenses for Mexico regardless of his club situation (which has actually improved at Mallorca). The aztecas, though, have awoken to the reality that they will have to play in the same Hex as everyone else: one in which no one is feared, no one’s house is respected and every point must be earned.

Some of you may be wondering why I did not consider the ticos for the second recognition. Simply put, this week hasn’t been all bad: they may feel aggrieved at yesterday’s game (and may finally provide the home support that had been noticeably lacking in the semifinal round), but at least they got their World Cup back.

—

While we all catch our breath and prepare for Tuesday, I must highlight one significant event taking place tonight. As I noted on Wednesday, Honduran Apertura winners Olimpia simply need to surpass 63 points, the maximum that second-place Victoria could reach in the full-year table, in order to guarantee themselves a top seed for the 2013-14 Champions League and a much more manageable group (just ask Herediano and Xelaju, CRC1 and GUA1 respectively in the current edition).

El León may pull it off this evening at 9:30 p.m. EDT, as they kick off Matchday 14 in the Honduran Clausura with the Tegucigalpa derby against archrivals Motagua. Should Amado Guevara and co. prevent them from winning, though, a Victoria slip-up at Platense on Sunday at 5:00 p.m. would also allow the biggest club in Honduras to set the record for most CCL top seeds earned by any participant since 2008 at four…although it will likely happen later if not now.

CCL 2013-14 Qualifiers

1. Sporting Kansas City [USA4]
2. San Jose Earthquakes [USA2]
3. Houston Dynamo [USA3]
4. LA Galaxy [USA1]
5. Toluca FC [MEX2 or MEX3]
6. Club Tijuana [MEX1]
7. Árabe Unido [PAN1 or PAN2]
8. Isidro Metapán [SLV1 or SLV2]
9. Olimpia [HON1]
10. Comunicaciones [GUA1 or GUA2]
11. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]

By now, those of you who follow the CONCACAF Champions League and/or MLS are likely aware of Seattle’s historic 3-1 quarterfinal victory (3-2 aggregate) over the 10 men chosen by coach Ricardo “Tuca” Ferretti to represent Tigres…plus one who is unlikely to ever again receive the call. I did get to watch the second half in its entirety (and yes, flagrantly violate the neighborhood soundspace agreement after Djimi Traore’s goal), as well as the last half-hour of Houston’s debacle in Mexico and the LA Galaxy’s romp over Herediano. The rest of the week, however, was dedicated to preparing for a Comprehensive Exam in my graduate program, for which reason I had to leave a number of pertinent topics unaddressed.

Fortunately, assuming a positive evaluation of my work from last Saturday, such a temporary suspension of The Regional Review will not need to be repeated any time soon. Continuing briefly with the personal note, the question of my professional future will have to be addressed over the next three months, and at the end I will look over my schedule to determine if it permits the continuation of my blogging commitments. To be honest, though, if my ruminations on the major football tournaments in our region were not transcribed via these entries, they would float around teasing and tormenting my mind to the point that my productivity elsewhere would be unaffected. That is, not writing here would not provide any appreciable benefit to the rest of my life…what? If the CAS can employ double-negatives, whom am I to argue.

Without further ado, allow me to unleash the following thoughts and reactions to last week’s events.

—

The results from the second leg of the 2012-13 CCL quarterfinals were a faithful reflection of the current balance of power in the region. The Caribbean’s peripheral role at club level can best be summed up by the fact that since the 2008-09 Champions League, not a single representative has reached the knockout round. Also, as doors continue to open for Central American players in MLS and mid-level European clubs, UNCAF clubs have struggled to handle the talent drain and have subsequently lost protagonism on the continental stage. Lastly, having two teams in the CCL semifinals is a disappointment for Mexico and an unprecedented achievement for the US.

—

When I openly wished for Tigres to fall short of their first international title, out of concern for how Tuca would approach the Club World Cup, regular reader It’s Called FOOTBALL asserted that the Brazilian would eschew his usual repugnance for international competitions and field starters in Morocco. Such a case will have to wait for another year; Tuca’s decision to entrust the most successful continental campaign in Tigres history (and there aren’t many) to the reserves, though, hardly inspires confidence that the Mundialito would have received a different treatment.

—

The good news from the Gold Cup schedule announcement is that either on CONCACAF’s invitation or their own volition, 10 of the participating federations took advantage of the clause in the CONCACAF Statutes allowing them to send representatives to attend the “draw” ceremony.

However, no “draw” ever took place. As General Secretary Enrique Sanz explained, “there was no draw, with the objective of bringing the national teams to where their respective communities are” (translation mine). Nor was any seeding procedure taken into account: whereas the three strongest Caribbean qualifiers had previously been kept apart in the group stage, so that any all-Caribbean matchup involved the weakest participant (Haiti-Guadeloupe in 2007, Haiti-Grenada in 2009 and Jamaica-Grenada in 2011), Trinidad and Tobago and Haiti will renew acquaintances in Group B while Martinique return from a decade-long absence in Group A.

Only two theories come to mind on why the participants would accept the arbitrary groups. First, perhaps everyone involved was more interested in maximizing ticket revenue than transparency, since the Gold Cup is CONCACAF’s most profitable tournament (and the teams taking part would be in line for prize money). More likely, with eight of 12 teams reaching the quarterfinals, the head coaches and administrators present figured that the eventual group placement would not significantly affect their chances of reaching the knockout round. For instance, while Group B appears the strongest on paper (from top to bottom), just about any fan of El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago and Haiti would consider the other two teams beatable and one of the “best third-place” spots an attainable target.

We will have to wait for the 2013-14 CCL draw in May, then, to observe how President Jeffrey Webb and Sanz handle a situation in which CONCACAF’s traditional arbitrariness no longer aligns with the interests of its membership, given that only one team survives each group. As an example, the 2013 Canadian champion would view reaching the quarterfinals as a much more realistic goal in San Jose’s group than in Tijuana’s. The best team from El Salvador would probably feel the same way; the only means of satisfactorily responding to both their interests would be through a random draw.

—

Did you know that Tuca was once considered to coach Mexico? At least until Mexican Football Federation (FMF) President Justino Compean explained to him that el Tri would have to play other countries…at which point, Tuca muttered “partidos moleros” under his breath and passed up the opportunity.

—

By this time last year, the cast for the 2012-13 CCL had already expanded, as 2011 Nicaraguan Apertura champion Real Esteli clinched their country’s sole berth in the tournament in convincing style. This time around, due to a number of Central American countries postponing their Clausura tournaments for the Copa Centroamericana, we have yet to even bring out the list of 2013-14 qualifiers. While we wait, here is a quick update of how the Apertura winners (and runner-up) are faring in the race for top berths.

Mexico – Based on the hand-me-down scenarios spelled out by the FMF last year, we know that Tijuana reaching the Clausura final would guarantee a top seed (MEX2) for their opponent and a CCL berth (MEX4) for the highest team in the Clausura not yet qualified, while Toluca winning the tournament would bring in none other than Club Leon as MEX3. Neither outcome looks terribly likely at the moment: the Xolos are in playoff position at 7th place, but five outsiders remain within one game of them, and their attention is currently split between the Clausura and the Copa Libertadores. Toluca are similarly involved in the two competitions, but are five points out of the domestic liguilla with only six games left.

Guatemala – Thanks to archrivals Municipal and Xelaju bringing up the rear in the Clausura 10 games in, Apertura champions Comunicaciones have amassed a 21-point lead in the full-year table, with 74 points to second-place Heredia’s 53.

Belize – The days of having to forfeit their CCL spot over infrastructural problems may be over: Football Federation of Belize (FFB) President Ruperto Vicente promised to get the FFB Stadium up to standard ahead of the CONCACAF inspection in May, so that a Belizean club may participate in the CCL for only the second time since Hankook Verdes got pulverized by Cruz Azul in 2008. Apertura winners Belmopan Bandits are currently in the drivers’ seat for the potential honor with 44 points over the two seasons; as one can expect, the Belize Defence Force and the Police (United) are hot on their heels, with 43 and 37 points, respectively.

El Salvador – Halfway into the Clausura, Isidro Metapan find themselves in an unfamiliar slump. They are eighth place out of 10 teams, five points out of the playoffs and are sitting third in the full-year table, with 46 points to 49 for Alianza and 53 for FAS.

Honduras – Thanks to their own imperious form and the inconsistency of just about everyone else in the Liga Nacional, Olimpia lead the full-year table with 61 points. With only five matchdays left in the Clausura, the only team that could catch them are runners-up Victoria, who are well behind on 48 points; el Leon could thus wrap up the HON1 spot this very weekend.

Nicaragua – No one will be surprised to find Real Esteli atop the full-year table. Old hands Diriangen are close behind, with 36 points to 43 for el Tren del Norte; with six fixtures left, including another Clásico Nacional between the two, Esteli will have to keep plugging along in order to guarantee their next international adventure.

Costa Rica – Alajuelense are currently on top of the full-year table with 63 points. The only problem: archrivals Saprissa are only one point behind on 62, while Herediano remains within striking distance at 55.

Panama – Lastly, Arabe Unido lead the way with 51 points over both seasons. The recently-promoted Rio Abajo, however, are dead set on proving that their run to the Apertura semifinals was no fluke, and they lie just behind on 50 points. The more traditional San Francisco and Tauro are further back, on 42 and 41 points, respectively.

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Finally, I would like to commend the United States Soccer Federation for coming up with a tangible benefit of the NASL retaining second-division status – since, as MLS Commissioner Don Garber has stated on multiple occasions, the instability of lower-division clubs frustrates any hope of pro/rel in the short term.

Given that both the NASL and the the third-division USL-Pro had entered the 2012 Open Cup in the second round with 16 cumulative teams, and that both had plans to expand, I wondered how future Open Cup tournaments would accommodate the extra teams (assuming no change in format). As announced earlier this month, the USSF wisely decided to give the NASL priority, with all six participating teams (the New York Cosmos elected to sit out this edition) entering in the second round. The 10 best US-based USL-Pro teams will join them at the same stage, while the rest will have to battle the amateurs in the first round. With the Cosmos, the Virginia Cavalry and Indianapolis likely to join in the fun next year, the NASL will continue to take Open Cup second-round spots away from the USL-Pro…as it should be.