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Paul Calixte Blog

Champions League Draw: Chivas, Meet Chivos

Posted on June 6, 2012 2:19 am

It makes sense that Tuesday’s draw for the 2012-13 CONCACAF Champions League took place behind closed doors. As much as most of us would have preferred a live, broadcast event, the delay in the CFU Club Champions Cup had to be taken into account: we still have no idea when the Final Round will take place (update: the semifinals will take place on June 19, and the Third-Place Match and Final on June 21), and the three eventual qualifiers (between the Puerto Rico Islanders, W Connection, Caledonia AIA and Antigua Barracuda) retain the unfair advantage of essentially being able to choose their groups. CONCACAF had to make sure not to incentivize teams to avoid first place in the CFU tournament; outside of having a separate draw after the Caribbean clubs are determined, arranging the groups provided the best guarantee that CFU1 would receive a better outcome than CFU2.

Having said that, the path for all CCL qualifiers to the 2012-13 continental title, as well as the subsequent Club World Cup in Morocco, is now clear: CONCACAF opted to allow the teams to determine their own destiny, based entirely on first-round performance. Here we will focus on matches, difficulty and possibilities of each of the following groups.

Group 1

Santos Laguna (MEX)
Toronto FC (CAN)
Águila (SLV)

What are the most intriguing matchups?

Please raise your hands if you’re not excited about Carlos Darwin Quintero returning to BMO Field.

In spite of an atrocious losing streak in league play at the time, Toronto FC managed to return to the Champions League by dispatching fellow Major League Soccer outfits Montreal Impact and Vancouver Whitecaps en route to the Canadian Championship. In so doing, the Reds earned a shot at revenge against Santos Laguna, arguably the best team in our region. Back in March and April, the first leg of the 2011-12 CCL semifinals between the two clubs ended with an on-field scuffle; and through half-time in the second leg down in Torreón, the Canadians fancied their chances of stealing the series, in spite of Herculez Gomez matching them stride for stride. Then Julian de Guzman hacked down Cristian Suarez in the box, Santos went ahead on a penalty and the hosts torpedoed Toronto with three more goals to complete the blowout.

Whether as many goals will be on offer remains to be seen; but there will be no dropoff in intensity, as each can only move on at the other’s expense.

How hard is the group?

Aguila, on the other hand, will participate in the Champions League for the first time this season. As one of the grandes of Salvadoran football, they will actively look to frustrate their opponents on home soil; and as Santos learned the hard way last year, sending a reserve team is simply asking for trouble. None of the teams in this group is likely to give anything away cheaply at home.

Predictions to advance?

No Mexican club has ever won in Canada, and the aztecas have not managed to extract three points from El Salvador since 2009. Expect Santos Laguna to advance, but with enough points left on the table that they will end up with a lower-than-expected ranking for the knockout round.

Group 2

Herediano (CRC)
Real Salt Lake (USA)
Tauro (PAN)

What are the most intriguing matchups?

In the first three years of the CCL, for one reason or another, Costa Rican clubs only ever got paired with Honduran opponents, among the other Central American options (e.g. Saprissa-Marathón, Liberia Mía-Real España). Herediano did get to cross swords with Comunicaciones last season, but I have been itching to see ticos get matched up with clubs from neighboring countries. In this case, Herediano will be able to travel by bus to Panama City if they wish; and given their current financial problems, their ownership might just consider it. On the other hand, Tauro will look to make a statement for a country that has proven itself among the Central American elite at national-team level, but still a step behind when considering club performances.

How hard is the group?

Costa Rican teams have not lost a single game in the US in group-stage play. Financial mismanagement from Herediano’s ownership, however, has dismantled the championship-winning club just months before their return to the continental stage. The team had to play a friendly after the Torneo de Verano Final just so that the players could receive their bonuses; and two of their most potent attackers, José Carlos Cancela and Leandro Barbosa, have left the team in search of more stable paychecks. Tauro could give Real Salt Lake a tough time at home, though.

Predictions to advance?

Real Salt Lake may not strike fear into opponents as they did back in 2010; but this team has proven itself willing to do everything possible to succeed in this tournament. With Roxie Blen and her son Mario Sotela apparently allergic to stability, Herediano are doing everything possible to kill off their CCL chances before the tournament has even begun. RSL’s away match at Tauro may have the biggest impact on their eventual ranking.

Group 3

Olimpia (HON)
Houston Dynamo (USA)
FAS (SLV-BLZ)

What are the most intriguing matchups?

Olimpia and FAS will meet each other in this stage for the second time in three years: back in 2010, the Hondurans took maximum points from their fellow Central Americans, helping them to win first place in Group D. Their series will carry all the distinctive markings of a Central American clásico: hostile fans, belligerent and numerous away support, intense action on the field and nationwide media coverage appropriate for the occasion. Just in case I have not made it clear enough: you will want to watch these games.

How hard is the group?

There is no sugarcoating it: FAS stunk up the place when the last participated in the CCL. After dispatching Xelajú of Guatemala in the 2010-11 prelims, they only managed two points from six games in Group D, including comprehensive defeats at Toluca, at Puerto Rico and against Olimpia at the Estadio Cuscatlán. Olimpia and Houston will look to each other as the principal rivals for the one ticket to the knockout round.

Predictions to advance?

I feel pretty confident that el León and the Dynamo will split the series between each other. In this case, I foresee Olimpia moving on for one reason: I have way more confidence in their ability to get a result in El Salvador than Houston’s ability to get a result in El Salvador (Metapán, anyone?).

Group 4

Seattle Sounders (USA)
Marathón (HON)
CFU1

What are the most intriguing matchups?

The Seattle Sounders made their first Champions League apperance in 2010, giving them the opportunity to act on general manager Adrian Hanauer’s rhetoric about establishing his club internationally. After sweating out a 2-1 aggregate victory over Metapan in the prelims, the Cascadians looked forward to testing themselves in that season’s Group of Death, with Monterrey, Saprissa and Marathón; and they must have fancied their chances down in Honduras when Roger Levesque put them ahead early. Then Marathon stormed back to win 2-1, Seattle lost their next three games and they crashed out of the tournament in pitiful fashion. I do not remember any bad blood having been built up between them, but it is said that familiarity does not necessarily bring out the best in opponents.

How hard is the group?

I cannot give a more authoritative answer until we find out who wins the CFU Club Champions Cup; but I am almost certain that if the Caribbean team does not challenge for the top spot, it will pull off at least one surprise result, seriously damaging the victim’s continental campaign.

Predictions to advance?

Given their tremendous maturation over the last couple of years, and the fact the they came from behind three times against Comunicaciones over their two games in group stage play last year, I see Seattle Sounders returning to the quarterfinals. What’s more, if Marathon and the Caribbean champions show up unprepared or out of form, Sigi Schmid’s side may end up earning a high ranking.

Group 5

LA Galaxy (USA)
Isidro Metapán (SLV)
CFU3

What are the most intriguing matchups?

Given the large Salvadoran population in the LA area, as well as Isidro Metapán’s current status as the gold standard of Salvadoran club football, the caleros could end up enjoying two home games against the defending MLS champions (a title that currently bears a strong resemblance to a millstone).

How hard is the group?

I would be shocked if the Puerto Rico Islanders were to end up in this group (much more if they missed out entirely, of course); and we will have our first indication on Friday if the Antiguans are ready to mix it up with the regional elite. The Trini teams, meanwhile, handed MLS teams some humiliating defeats in the first two years of the CCL; but assuming that Landon Donovan and co. exit their current slump, an on-form Galaxy should succesfully brush aside the challenge. Metapan, on the other hand, have only won once in six CCL games against MLS opposition, hardly the kind of record that will faze Bruce Arena.

Predictions to advance?

If they play up to their potential, the LA Galaxy should not only win the group, but claim a top-three ranking for the knockout round.

Group 6

Tigres UANL (MEX)
LD Alajuelense (CRC)
Real Estelí (NCA)

What are the most intriguing matchups?

The other cross-border series featuring a Costa Rican team will breathe life into an international rivalry that seldom expresses itself through sport. Nicaragua and Costa Rica have plenty of historical and social grievances with each other; but on the football pitch, the pinoleros (more traditionally fond of baseball, basketball and boxing) hardly even show up on Costa Rica’s radar. From the point of view of Real Estelí, I honestly thought that the most exciting thing that could happen to them would be the opportunity to host a Mexican opponent for the first time in the history of Nicaraguan club football. But the chance to stick it to one of Costa Rica’s giants (especially ones that wear red-and-black, the combination associated with Sandinistas in Nicaragua) and affirm their footballing existence may prove the biggest attraction for El Tren del Norte‘s rabid fans.

How hard is the group?

On the field, though, Real Estelí will have to punch far above their weight to bother Tigres and “Liga”. Between the more experienced sides, Alajuelense will approach this tournament with an enormous advantage in motivation. To put it bluntly: Tigres coach Ricardo “Tuca” Ferreti hates international tournaments. Hates them. How much? Think of the Copa Libertadores, the second-biggest continetal club championship in the world, a holy grail for Mexicans and The Promised Land for many MLS fans. Tigres earned the opportunity to play in the 2012 edition by finishing third in the 2011 Mexican Apertura. Tuca subsequently, and deliberately, sent out B-teams for their prelim series against Unión Española of Chile; the regiomontanos bombed out of the Libertadores, and Ferreti happily got back to preparing for domestic competition.

Predictions to advance?

Normally, even the most disinterested Mexican side finds a way through the CCL group stage, before putting in their full efforts once the Club World Cup is in sight. But Alajuelense are no club to be overlooked: while Saprissa took all the plaudits for winning the 2005 CONCACAF Champions Cup and later finishing third at the Club World Cup, the manudos won the previous continental title – at archrival Saprissa’s expense, no less. So I will go ahead and call the upset: Alajuelense scrape through, Tigres go home early and everyone’s happy (except for everyone associated with Tigres and not named “Tuca”).

Group 7

Chorrillo FC (PAN)
CF Monterrey (MEX)
Municipal (GUA)

What are the most intriguing matchups?

To be honest, it is hard to see any of these matches generating much emotion (at least before the teams start fighting for survival). Chorrillo will celebrate their maiden appearance on this stage, while Municipal and Monterrey have little history with each other.

How hard is the group?

I cannot imagine that Monterrey club president Luis Miguel Salvador is happy with draw: Municipal was perhaps the (known) Pot 3 team that everyone most wanted to avoid, and the Guatemalans will be a force to be reckoned with at home. Whether they provide much of a challenge for the top spot depends on what happens to the three players (including veterans Guillermo “Pando” Ramírez and Gustavo Cabrera) who are currently under investigation for match-fixing.

Predictions to advance?

One of these days, the Monterrey CCL dynasty will be broken, but it will not be at this stage. Central American venues seldom prove hospitable to Mexican opponents, however, so the rayados may end up with an underwhelming ranking for the knockout round.

Group 8

Xelajú MC (GUA)
Chivas de Guadalajara (MEX)
CFU2

What are the most intriguing matchups?

That’s right: it’s the Chivas against the superchivos, the first team not named Comunicaciones or Municipal to win Guatemala’s top seed. The two teams have played all of two games combined in the CCL era, however, so I have no means of handicapping their showdowns.

How hard is the group?

It is hard to tell, given that Xelajú excused themselves too quickly from the 2010-11 CCL to get a good read of their preparedness for continetal play. The last time Chivas played in a CONCACAF tournament, though, they lost their one match in the Caribbean, so the fixtures against the eventual CFU2 cannot be taken for granted.

Predictions to advance?

Given their title drought, recent horror shows in domestic and international play and their status as a true grande (to say nothing of the immense publicity they can bring to the tournament), I am hard-pressed to see Chivas missing out on advancement to the next stage.