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Paul Calixte Blog

World Cup 2014: Elementary Wrap-Up, Semifinal Predictions

Posted on November 16, 2011 5:00 pm

The biggest round of qualifying in the history of CONCACAF (based on number of fixtures) came to a close yesterday night, and for my money it has been a success. The top-seeded countries that did survive may have been annoyed with facing off against nondescript opponents, while the US, Mexico and Costa Rica got to play friendlies against France, Brazil and Spain, respectively. But frankly, this isn’t about them: the emerging countries in our region got to play (and host) more World Cup matches than in any other qualifying cycle. They also enjoyed the visits of relatively high-profile sides like El Salvador, Panama and Canada; and although a couple of teams fell flat on their face (e.g. Dominica, US Virgin Islands), many of them put up more of a fight than expected. I am already anxious for the next Caribbean Cup: based on what I have seen in the elementary round, it should be the most competitive to date.

Of course, the groups had already been decided by the end of Matchday 5, so the World Cup qualifiers played over the last two days only counted for pride and positioning. With that in mind, I decided to give a nod to a team that defied both their ranking and prior expectations.

TEAM OF THE ROUND

Bermuda

For some reason, the northernmost of the Caribbean teams was the only one to start the elementary round with two away games. And after Khano Smith and co. lost in Trinidad and Guyana, they knew that any chance of staying alive in the World Cup depended on their home stand in October against the same opponents. On Matchday 3, Bermuda kept themselves in the race and threw a huge monkey wrench in Otto Pfister’s plans with a 2-1 victory over Trinidad and Tobago; but they failed to beat Guyana at the second time of asking and thus waved goodbye to Brazil 2014.

The Gombey Warriors still had a home-and-away series against higher-ranked Barbados to solve away, and they made the most of it with back-to-back wins. The Bermudians did end up third place in Group B, while similarly bottom-ranked Belize and the Dominican Republic managed to reach second; but Bermuda was one of only nine teams to finish with 10 or more points in this round. The others? Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago and the group winners. Hopefully Bermuda will attempt to qualify for the next Caribbean Cup, because I am almost 100% sure they would make it.

Handing over this week’s dishonor is also something of an arbitrary task, but I did manage to apply an objective method. The choice was made following a simple question: which was the highest-ranked team to finish bottom of its respective group?

GOAT OF THE ROUND

Grenada

Before the start of World Cup qualifying, Grenada had the reputation of an emerging power in the Caribbean. They had reached the final of the 2008 Caribbean Cup and had qualified for the last two Gold Cups, knocking out Trinidad and Tobago on each occasion. And while their Gold Cup performances proved their inadequacy against the best teams in our region, their run of good results against Caribbean opposition and their top seed meant that they had a golden opportunity to reach the semifinal round of qualifying for the first time.

Of course, the “golden” part got dropped as soon as they drew the short straw and ended up with Guatemala in their group. But the Spice Boyz still expected to finish ahead of Belize, who have never made it to the Gold Cup, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, who have not qualified for the Caribbean Cup in ages. Such illusions quickly disappeared, however, after a horrid September: the Grenadians got crushed 3-0 by Belize at home, and remained at the bottom of Group E after another defeat at St. Vincent. They did manage to pick themselves up with a surprising 4-1 win at Belize on Matchday 3; but a last-minute 1-1 draw with St. Vincent eliminated them from the 2014 World Cup. They only had two matches left, against whatever set of players Ever Hugo Almeida decided to line up for Guatemala; and after Belize and St. Vincent split the points in Belmopan, Grenada would need to get a result out of the chapines in order to avoid last place. No such pity arrived: Guatemala manhandled Grenada 3-0 in Guatemala City and 4-1 in St. George’s, leaving them to lick their wounds. They will need a strong run in the next Caribbean Cup, or Grenada will return to “also-ran” status in the region.

And with that, we move on to the semifinal round, which will be contested from June to October of next year. There are quite a few events that The Regional Review will cover between now and then (including the current CCL, qualifying for the next one, and the Caribbean Cup), but before we enter the World Cup hiatus, let me provide a review of the groups for the next stage.

Group A

USA
Jamaica
Guatemala
Antigua and Barbuda

What are the most intriguing matchups?

Jamaica had an excellent run in the 2011 Gold Cup, winning Group B with three wins out of three matches. But once they faced their bogey team, the Reggae Boyz served up their worst performance of the tournament. Luton Shelton failed to score on an open net in the first five minutes, setting the tone for a sad outing that allowed a US team in disarray to survive. And with goals from Jermaine Jones and Clint Dempsey, the Americans breathed a sigh of relief as they made the semifinals.

Then again, history was not surprised: Jamaica have never beaten the US, and they will be raring at the bit to do so when Landon Donovan and co. visit the Office next September. The back-to-back Caribbean champions are well-acquainted with American soccer, what with Dane Richards, Omar Cummings, Donovan Ricketts, Jermaine Taylor and JeVaughn Watson all plying their trade in MLS; and given how close the Jamaicans came to that maiden win the last time the US showed up in Kingston – a late Brian Ching goal extinguished the post-game celebrations – they will feel confident about getting the job done this time.

The other can’t-miss match in this group has to be the US’s match at Guatemala. The last time they visited the Estadio Mateo Flores, Eddie Lewis got felled by a nasty elbow from Gustavo Cabrera that should have earned the latter a multiple-game suspension. The Americans still managed to win 1-0, but they cannot count on the Guatemalan attack misfiring as badly as they did in 2008.

How hard is the group?

Even with the presence of debutants Antigua and Barbuda, this group should be moderately difficult for everyone involved. Jamaica and Guatemala will have to fight tooth and nail for a spot in the Hex – and this is assuming that Jurgen Klinsmann gets the US back on its feet, since the attack has only shown periodic signs of life up to now.

Predictions to advance?

I would not be surprised if Guatemala were to survive, but I have them finishing in a close third behind USA and Jamaica. Antigua and Barbuda will most likely finish last, but a good performance here and there could land some of the Antigua Barracudas (USL-Pro) players contracts with bigger clubs in our region.

Group B

Mexico
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guyana

What are the most intriguing matchups?

Every last game between Mexico, Costa Rica and El Salvador is a must-watch affair. The Central Americans have neither fear nor deference towards CONCACAF’s finest; and while Mexico imposed their authority on the rest of us in the last Gold Cup, we have yet to see how Jose “el Chepo” de la Torre’s team will handle performances on the road. His record with Toluca does not make for happy reading: in the 2009-10 and 2010-11 CCLs, the diablos rojos racked up a mediocre 2-3-2 record in games played outside of Mexico before “el Chepo” jumped for the national-team, so we will have to see if el Tri handles the Central American cauldrons any better.

How hard is the group?

This is the Group of Death, without a doubt. Mexico is the best team in the region; Costa Rica and El Salvador both have the quality to reach the Hex; and if this is a step too far for Guyana, the South Americans can still play an important “spoiler” role.

Predictions to advance?

Mexico is almost certain to advance. But while I can say that without turning any heads, my second pick is probably the most controversial one I’ve made to date, so I will be sure to explaining my reasoning.

Here goes: I predict El Salvador will finish in second, knocking out Costa Rica early and leaving the ticos out of the Hex for the first time ever.

Why? First, El Salvador have no problem playing tú a tú * with Costa Rica. The 12-year dry spell for El Salvador against the three-time World Cup qualifiers came to an end in the 2009 Gold Cup, when Osael Romero scored a brace to give the cuscatlecos a 2-1 win at the Home Depot Center. With that monkey off their backs, the Salvadorans repeated the trick in the Estadio Cuscatlan in World Cup qualifying, bringing an end to the Rodrigo Kenton era with a 1-0 win; that game left Costa Rica in a tailspin that ultimately cost them a place in South Africa. And while they avoided each other at the last Copa Centroamericana, El Salvador almost beat them for the third time in a row in the last Gold Cup, with only a last-minute goal from “Chiqui” Brenes saving a 1-1 draw for Costa Rica.

Yes, Costa Rica had more than enough chances to win the game, and perhaps would have done so if Alvaro Saborio were not in his zombie-like slump. And they have the edge over El Salvador in terms of personnel: Costa Rica’s best player, Bryan Ruiz, is on the books of Fulham in the English Premier League, while Rodolfo Zelaya had to settle for a second-division Russian club. But have you seen Costa Rica lately? Leave aside their admirable effort in a 2-2 draw against Spain (that should have been a win for the Central Americans): under current boss Jorge Luis Pinto, they lost to Panama and got crushed by Ecuador; and the consensus (at least among the press) is that they wasted a full year under former coach Ricardo LaVolpe, the 2-0 win over Bolivia in the Copa America aside.

Also, it is important to note that El Salvador have a much better shot at taking points off of Mexico than Costa Rica. The latter did invent the “Aztecazo” back in 2001; since then, Mexico have a 2-0-1 record in World Cup qualifiers played in Costa Rica. For the aztecas, the Cuscatlan is a much more intimidating venue: although a number of locals crossed the line with tapabocas mocking the H1N1 outbreak in Mexico, the hostile atmosphere galvanized la Selecta to a 2-1 win over the Mexicans, ruining the debut of Javier Aguirre. For reference, here is how the table looked for the 2009 Hex, taking into account only the games between Mexico, Costa Rica and El Salvador:

Mexico 9
El Salvador 6
Costa Rica 3

Costa Rica is widely considered the favorite to advance along with Mexico, but I think that El Salvador will pull off the upset and send their Central American brothers into a long period of soul-searching and renovation.

Group C

Honduras
Cuba
Panama
Canada

What are the most intriguing matchups?

Honduras and Panama do not have much of a rivalry between them, but the series between the most recent Gold Cup semifinalists should provide Panama the opportunity to confirm their place among the Central American elite. As for the Canadians, they still have yet to truly get over the nightmare in Montreal back in 2008, when the catrachos effectively put an end to their World Cup campaign with a 2-1 victory in front of a somewhat pro-Honduran crowd. The chance at revenge will come next June, although Canada’s home match against Panama will have a greater say in whether or not the Reds make it back to the Hex for the first time in over a decade.

How hard is the group?

I find this to be the easiest of the semifinal groups, and not just because the US and Mexico are nowhere to be found. While Cuba are capable of tripping someone up (their 2-1 win over Guatemala eliminated the chapines from the 2010 World Cup), their chances of survival are almost non-existent. Meanwhile, Honduras are still in a rebuilding phase; and while the Canadian attack finally came to life yesterday with a 4-0 win over St. Kitts, their body of work in 2011 does little to inspire confidence.

Predictions to advance?

In my mind, Panama are the favorites to win the group. They have the most complete, prepared team at the moment; their 2-1 win over the US in the Gold Cup sent shock-waves throughout the region; and they comfortably dominated their opposition in the elementary round. If Canada survive, I believe it will be at the catrachos‘ expense; but once Carlos Costly and Jerry Bengtson get on the same page, I think Honduras will do just enough to knock out the Canadians once again. Mind you, if Costly goes down to injury again and Honduras are stuck with Bengtson and Walter “Peri” Martinez up front, then coach Luis Suarez will need a box of Alka-Seltzer for next year’s games.

* vos a vos is probably more appropriate, given the countries involved.