CCL 2012-13 Qualifiers: MLS Quarterfinals, Part II
Posted on November 2, 2011 5:25 pm
Last Saturday, the Seattle Sounders took the field in Rio Tinto Stadium, a venue in which they achieved a streak-busting 2-1 victory on their last visit, to face off against the lower-seeded Real Salt Lake. While Sigi Schmid’s side had finished the regular season with a run that led to another US Open Cup championship, Cascadian dominance and the second-best record in Major League Soccer, Real Salt Lake had fallen back into the same kind of hopeless slump in which Monterrey had left them back in April. Kyle Beckerman had just finished sitting out a three-game suspension, while RSL’s talisman Javier Morales had only recently returned to the field after months on the doctor’s table. Whether you value long-term performance over temporary form or vice-versa, Seattle had every right to consider themselves the favorites.
Of course, this is MLS we’re talking about.
RSL played Seattle off the field 3-0, with a performance reminiscent of their imperial 4-1 thrashings of the Columbus Crew (in CCL play) and the LA Galaxy at the beginning of the year. No one is foolish enough to call the series dead (Schmid least of all), but Seattle will have to attack relentlessly in order to make up the deficit in the second leg. Expect 90 minutes of madness (or more).
The return fixtures for all the MLS quarterfinals kick off tonight with Sporting Kansas City hosting the Colorado Rapids at 8:00 p.m. (all times EST). Right after, Seattle will shoot for the miraculous when they host RSL at 10:00 p.m. Tomorrow, the Houston Dynamo will hold serve in potentially their last-ever game at Robertson Stadium against the Philadelphia Union at 8:30 p.m. The LA Galaxy will finish what Marquez started this playoff matchday when they host the New York Red Bulls at 11:00 p.m.
All of the games will be available on TSN2 in Canada. As for the rest of the region, Fox Soccer Channel and Fox Deportes will show Sporting KC against Colorado in the US only. The other three matches will be available on ESPN2 in the US; in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, the Seattle/RSL game will be shown on ESPN2, while Thursday’s matches will both be carried on ESPN.
The Eastern Conference bracket is not as significant for our purposes as the “Western (plus New York)” side at the moment. Nevertheless, I should point out that Sporting KC will feel confident about their chances of hosting the semifinal/Eastern Conference final in LiveStrong Sporting Park: they hold a 2-0 lead over Colorado’s walking dead (with no fewer than three starters in the Rapids’ defense liable to miss the return leg through injury), and will look to salt away the series without losing any players to yellow-card accumulation. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Union will chase a 1-2 deficit at Houston Dynamo; while this will be only their second playoff game in their franchise’s short history, the Union actually have a perfect record in Robertson Stadium, giving them every reason to confidently chase a victory.
The other two series, however, will directly affect the list of qualifiers (below) over the next two days. If the Sounders fail to overtake RSL, they will logically be unable to finish as the MLS Champion [USA1], although the Galaxy could* hand them the USA2 or USA3 positions should LA double-up on their CCL berths. In the other game, either the LA Galaxy will get overturned by their MLS-appointed arch-nemesis New York, in which case they will no longer aspire to qualifying for the MLS Cup (as in, they would be stuck as USA2), or they will knock out the Red Bulls (hopefully without punches, real or imagined) and return a grateful Real Salt Lake to the continental stage.
Finally, I should mention two things: for those of you unfamiliar with the MLS playoff format, the quarterfinals are a total-goal series with no extra tiebreakers. For instance, if Seattle manages to win 4-1 tonight, then they will head into overtime against RSL – with neither away goals nor higher seeding taken into account. Secondly, the draw for the knockout round of the current (2011-12) CCL will take place next Tuesday. As I have class until 6:00 p.m., I will provide a recap at my earliest convenience.
* Theoretically; there is no precedent for a team pulling off a Supporter’s Shield/MLS Cup double, with the Supporter’s Shield runner-up already qualified for the CCL. My intuition is that Seattle would receive the automatic spot [USA2], while simultaneously handing their Open Cup spot in the CCL prelims [USA4] to Real Salt Lake.
1. Seattle Sounders [USA2 or USA4]
2. LA Galaxy [USA1 or USA2]
3. Real Salt Lake [USA1, USA3 or USA4]
I’m still jittery after having watched the end of the Seattle/Real Salt Lake game. The Sounders managed to pull themselves within one goal of tying the series, after twice punishing RSL’s defensive mistakes through a penalty and a Lamar Neagle strike. But in spite of the multitude of chances that they created, and the nearly unplayable wet turf that laid waste to RSL’s possession-oriented style, the visitors held on to win the series 3-2 on aggregate.
So Real Salt Lake not only move on to the MLS semifinals, but they now find themselves with a win-win situation: either the Galaxy win tomorrow and Jason Kreis’s side return to the Champions League, or New York wins and RSL will host the Western Conference championship at the Rio Tinto.
On the other side of the bracket, the Eastern Conference team (from the US) that will qualify for the next CCL will emerge from LiveStrong Sporting Park, now the confirmed venue for the other Conference championship after Sporting knocked out the defending champions with another 2-0 win.
I also decided to remove USA3 from Seattle’s potential berths. Here’s a quick explanation, for those who are interested:
The Sounders cannot win the MLS Cup Final this year, so USA1 is no longer an option. USA2 is still possible, though – if my intuition is correct (see bullet at end of post). And if the LA Galaxy lose in the MLS Cup Final, then the question of which specific prelim-round spots Seattle and RSL occupy will not matter, since both lead to the same place.
You gotta love the MLS playoff format in which the lower seeds are rewarded. The lowere seed gets the advantage of playing at home first, establishing momentum and then bunkering the second match.
No wonder Supporters Shield winners don’t win the MLS Cup.
It should be pointed out that RSL were the only lower seed to win their home game over the weekend.
And this year, the only lower seed to advance out of the round.
According to the “CCL curse”, New York should have had the most energy in reserve for their two-fer with the LA Galaxy; but after tying up the series after only five minutes, the Red Bulls tired out first, sputtering to a 2-1 defeat that saw them limp out of the playoffs 3-1 on aggregate.
With the Big Apple out of the picture, Real Salt Lake will return to the CCL next year, although the question of which spot they will take is still to be decided. The possibilities:
- If Real Salt Lake win the Western Conference championship (WCC) and the MLS Cup Final, they will take the USA1 spot in the group stage (the only way RSL avoids the preliminary round).
- If Real Salt Lake win the WCC and lose the MLS Cup Final, then they will enter as USA3.
- If the LA Galaxy win the WCC and lose the MLS Cup Final, then the Galaxy will remain as USA2 and pass the USA3 spot onto RSL.
- If the LA Galaxy win the WCC and the MLS Cup Final, then (I’m 98% sure that) they will move up to USA1 and pass USA2 down the regular-season table to the Seattle Sounders, who themselves would drop the USA4 spot to RSL.
As a Seattle fan, I cannot but support places for winning U.S. Open Cup or for finishing second overall in MLS points.
But, as a U.S. Soccer fan, in the fullest sense of that term, meaning in favor of the advancement of the sport, not wearing Arsenal jerseys to support the opposition against MLS sides in friendlies, but, you know, actually supporting the local side and the development of OUR game, I think winning the U.S. Open Cup should mean automatic Group Stage qualification, year after year, hands down, no waiting for the Don or Bob Kraft to give the green light Sunil. Period. End of story. As that blowhard Thomas Rontgen says, “Thank you for playing.”
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