This is not to say that Neymar is in the same level as Argentine star and will take his starting job. Not at all. Despite completely dominating the Brazilian league, the young striker has definitely struggled when he had to face top-class rivals and will take a while to adapt to the demands of European football.

But, at only 21 years-old, no one will ask him to become the team’s saviour. Neymar’s job, at least at first, will be to become Leo’s shadow. Considering his technical abilities and potential, he’s the only one capable of mimicking what the Golden Ball winner does on the pitch: dribble around rivals, drag the ball forward, finish inside the box and decide games with touches of genius.

It has become commonplace that Messi wants to play every minute of every game. And it’s probably true, but it is also true that, so far, Barcelona also needed him to be there all the time because they have never had player who could imitate what the Argentine does on the pitch. With all their talent, neither Xavi, Iniesta or Cesc share the same characteristics and, therefore, when Leo is not on the pitch, the team looks completely different… and worse.

Last season it was clear that, however strong the best player in the world is, he’s human and needs rest, and Neymar will be able to provide just that. If the Brazilian had been on the squad this season, he could have played the second leg of the Champions League quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain and the crucial league clash against Athletic. So, Messi could have fully recovered from his injury and be at 100% against Bayern Munich. And then, perhaps, it would have been Carles Puyol who lifted the world most precious trophy in Wembley last Saturday.

It was not the case and both Barcelona players and their fans had to settle for watching on TV how Lahm, Mandzukic, Robben and company celebrated in the world’s most famous arena under a shower of confetti. But with Neymar on the team, the story doesn’t have to repeat itself. Now Messi can stay on the bench in Copa games and leave the pitch when the score is settled in la Liga and Champions League matches. He may not like at first but, Tito Vilanova, or whoever the new coach is, must convince him that the best for him is to be 100% in the games that really matter and to also stay healthy for many years.

Therefore, the signing of Brazilian star was absolutely essential for Barça. What follows is to let him adapt at his own pace and not place him under the spotlight immediately, however intense the pressure from the media becomes. He must be able to learn from the best and get used to the pace of European football so he can repeat the fantastic moves he showed every week in the Brasileirao. If they give him time, he will become the perfect substitute for Messi in the beginning and, in the near future, in the ideal companion for the world’s best player.

A year ago, Real Madrid and Barcelona arrived to their Champions League semifinals as heavy favorites. When they were eliminated, the feeling remained that the outcome of their ties might have been unfair. The Catalans ran riot over a fragile Chelsea side but missed the unmissable in front of an inspired Petr Cech and the Merengues were a Sergio Ramos’ penalty away from qualifying to the continental final.

Three hundred and sixty five days later, history repeated itself, but only in the statistics. In practice, the two big Spanish sides were defeated in all fairness by their German rivals, and the results showed what had been impossible to detect in the previous edition: Spanish football in general is in crisis, and there are very clear reasons behind it.

In its May issue, the prestigious English magazine World Soccer made a ranking of the best leagues in the world. Unlike the pathetic and incomprehensible rankings produced from time to time by the IFFHS (i.e. a German bureaucrat in his basement), the parameters were very precise: stadium attendance, financial status of the league, number of goals, variety of champions, quality of the coaches, better stadiums, star players and continental success.

You’d think, with Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top, Spain would finish first, didn’t you? Well, it was far from being the case. The leader was, by an important margin, Germany. The Bundesliga is not only the more spectacular league, but the more stable and better off financially. The so named by Marca, “Liga de las Estrellas”, finished in third place, behind the Premier League.

Essentially, the problem is that, outside of the big two, the Iberian league is in shambles. Almost no team pays its players on time and those who do usually have very modest budgets, such as Levante or Getafe. Of the teams that are fighting for the Champions League, only one, Real Sociedad, is not drowning in debt, and that’s because they went bankrupt a few years ago and had to institute a policy of absolute austerity.

Very distant in the past are the times when Deportivo, Valencia or Sevilla could sign the likes of Bebeto, Maradona , or Romàrio. In fact, it was those absurd expenses that have condemned medium and small teams in Spain. Like many entrepreneurs in the country, the club owners used their sides to make shady deals, and borrowed money until their finances collapsed. In that sense, football is a reflection of an entire society in total crisis without any apparent exit.

Meanwhile, Real and Barça are bathing in wealth and have used that to establish an impressive dominance locally. But that had only helped them in the trophy room. In practice, the two great Spanish sides play scrimmages every weekend and important games only four or five times a year, when they face each other or with bigger rivals in the Champions League. No wonder, then, that the Catalans have been humbled this season every time they faced a match against a top team and, in the last two years, the only top team Los Blancos managed to defeat en route to their  Champions League semifinal ties was Manchester United, and the Red Devils couldn’t be blamed to think the outcome had been quite unfair.

The problem is that the situation will not improve, mainly because the smaller clubs have no income. The average attendance in the league, taking away from the big two, barely exceeds the 23,000 fans, and most of their shirts have no sponsor. And the worst part comes with television revenue. Real and Barça get 70% of the profits, leaving the crumbs to the rest, and are not willing to change the terms. Strangely, they have not realized that their local greed is what is leading to their continental downfall.

Thus the phrase “Spain is in crisis” now applies to all areas of the country, including football. It will not change soon and it doesn’t seem unlikely that, in the near future we will see the likes of Valencia, Atlético or Sevilla crash in the first round of the Champions League while Real Madrid and Barcelona fail at the last hurdle and wonder why others can make it to the final when they spend less money and have worse players than the mighty two.

1. – Bayern Munich

“But they lost to Arsenal at home!” Surely some will say, but if they do it’s because they didn’t watch the match. I hadn’t seen a result as unfair as that one in a long, long, time. The Germans were vastly superior, and if they didn’t win it was because Arjen Robben essentially forgot that to win in football you have to get the ball into the net (something that he apparently remembered in the thrashing of Hamburg last Sunday), and Lukas Fabianski, the Gunners’ usual reserve keeper, played the game of his life. Bayern are very complete team in all their lines, a team that have perfectly assimilated their style and the only one really able to switch from a possession-oriented game to a counter style. Furthermore, most of their players, such as Ribery, Kroos, Müller, Dante and Mandzukic are going through the prime of their careers. In my opinion, Bayern should be considered the favorites of the competition.

Bookies odds to win it all: 4.5 / 1

2. – Barcelona

As demonstrated in the return leg against Milan, when Barcelona play at their best, they are the best team in the world. The problem is that, this year, that hasn’t happened too much when playing against top opposition. Tito Vilanova’s return will help, no doubt, and the fact of having an affordable quarter-final tie against PSG means that they might get to the semi-finals without much strain. Still, at this time I hesitate to place them over Bayern, although a final between the two would be a fascinating duel.

Bookies odds to win it all: 2.65 / 1

3. – Real Madrid

Real Madrid below Barcelona after kicking them off the Copa del Rey and beating them in the league? The problem is that the merengues have looked like a top team against their blaugrana archrivals and merely decent against the rest of the planet. If Jose Mourinho’s troops play with mental discipline and the blazing speed they showed in the Clásico, have many possibilities to get their coveted Décima and to close the turbulent reign of the Portuguese manager in the nest possible way, but in a team that seems to live a different soap opera every week, I wouldn’t bet my house on that happening. They probably have the easiest rivals in the quarterfinals though.

Bookies odds to win it all: 3.5 / 1

4. – Borussia Dortmund

If there is a team that gives pleasure when you watch them play, is Jürgen Klopp’s. Young, dynamic, exciting and aggressive, Dortmund can stand up to anyone and get ahead in the process. Their pressing is second-to-none and they are very dynamic transitioning from defense to attack without the need to resort to long ball tactics. However, they are young and inexperienced at this level and that might hinder their title chances, but they should be able to overcome an experienced but less talented Málaga side and claim their place among the top four.

Bookies odds to win it all: 7.5 / 1

5. – Juventus

I must confess I’m not a big fan of the Serie A. I think it has lost luster in recent years and that, in general, the level of competition is not as high as in other European countries. That said, Juventus is by far the best team in that league, and so far they haven’t lost a single match in the Champions League. Still, I refuse to rank them higher because their only worthwhile victory so far was over an unrecognizable Chelsea side and also because they drew the toughest possible rival in the quarter finals. However, if they manage to kick Bayern off, the sky is the limit.

Bookies odds to win it all: 15/1

6. – Málaga

Málaga probably have the weakest squad of eight teams that survive, but I place them in sixth place because their veterans can make life difficult to the inexperienced Borussia Dortmund side in their quarter-final series. The Boquerones don’t play the most spectacular football but they have one of the best coaches in the world and have managed to draw strength from adversity. I think they won’t be able to go further, but will die fighting.

Bookies odds to win it all: 67/1

7. – Paris Saint Germain

If you analyze their roster, Paris Saint Germain have one of the best squads of the remaining teams. Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, Lavezzi, Beckham … Names that make you dream. The problem is that they are playing well below their potential, which is normal when you take into account the short time that their stars have been playing together. In addition, they will have to face Barcelona, ​​which is precisely the opposite, a team that have their style in their genes and whose players know each other for a very long time.

Bookies odds to win it all: 34/1

8. – Galatasaray

The Turks are sort of an unknown figure. Their squad doesn’t really scare anyone but we’re talking about a very veteran team that plays in one of the toughest stadiums in Europe. Also they carry a very impressive run of good results playing away in Europe. Still, is not that they were really superior to Schalke in the second round, and their opponent in the quarterfinals, Real Madrid, is in another league. I think the merengues will be too fast and physical for the Turks, but it will be fun to see Drogba, Yilmaz, Snejder and Co. try to spring a surprise.

Bookies odds to win it all: 81/1

In the first half very little happened. Barcelona controlled possession almost completely, while Milan, with a totally misleading 4-3-3, was devoted more to close gaps in their own side and preventing Messi, Iniesta, Xavi and company from feeling comfortable. In fact, the best Barça player in the first half was probably Pedro, who seemed to be the only one capable of creating trouble to a Milan side that was happy putting all its players behind the ball, starting with Boateng and El Shaarawy, who usually ended up as side backs instead of wingers.

Actually, what was really surprising was Barcelona’s lack of ambition. Jordi Roura’s boys seemed content to pass the ball from side to side and go home with the 0-0 to finish the in the return leg. The Italians, meanwhile, did not dare to leave their defensive stance. Neither side merited to get an edge in the first forty-five minutes, or even at the beginning of the second half, which started in the same way.

Everything changed when Milan bumped into a goal. A free kick close to the Barça goal ended up in a Montolivo shot that bounced off the hand of Zapata to Boateng’s feet the Ghanaian slotted it home with an excellent shot, opening the mark. A key goal, with a high percentage of luck, no doubt. After the goal, the social networks exploded saying it should have been disallowed, but they were wrong. The rules are very clear. If there is intention, it should be punished, if there’s none, it shouldn’t. It is very clear that the Colombian defender wants to get out of the shot and the ball bounced at him at very short range making it impossible to get away from the ball. If Milan took advantage of the handball or not, if the handball was clear or not, it doesn’t matter. No intention, no whistle, as simple as that.

Thereafter, Barcelona completely faded, especially Lionel Messi. The weak spot of the best player in the world is when he gets desperate and wants to win games on his own. It hadn’t happened since the return leg of last year’s Champions League semi-finals against Chelsea, but he was at his worst once again tonight. He drifted too deep to get the ball, and refused to pass it. Again and again he tried to dribble past four or five opponents, and always ended up losing the ball.

Barcelona have become so used to rely so heavily on their great idol that when he’s on a bad night they are left without any alternatives, especially as Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez were not much better either. Iniesta also played his own game, without thinking of his teammates and the number 6 played as if the goals were on each side of the pitch. Barça’s first shot was a good Iniesta effort… at the 75^th minute!! Meanwhile, Milan sat back and waited for their chance to give the death blow in a counterattack.

And that’s exactly what happened. After a counter, an exceptional pass by El Shaarawi was finished perfectly by Muntari. The Rossoneri won the only way a less talented team can beat the Catalans, by being very supportive in defense and finishing their few chances.

Barcelona now faces a very similar scenario than the one they faced against Mourinho‘s Inter and Chelsea in the last edition of the Champions League. Both times they weren’t able to overcome the disadvantage. Theu will need to play a perfect match and Messi must understand that to do that, he must trust your talented peers. Otherwise, the history will be repeated.

EDIT: Just learned about the racist chants to Dani Alves. An absolute embarrasment and something that has to be addressed once and for all by the Spanish FA. It’s not the first time that the Madrid ultras do that in a match, and they have never been punished for it. I might write a blog post in the next couple of days with very interesting info I have that links the Ultras Sur with the far-right parties in Spain.

• Before the game, I tweeted that despite the absences, Real Madrid would be able to play as an equal to Barcelona. The reason was simple, if we analyze the two squads, the difference is very big and the merengues have understood that they can beat their archrivals. The facts proved me right. The times of the 5-0 or 2-6 are long gone.

• Barcelona were the better side tonight, and could have won by two or three goals, but Real Madrid’s last twenty minutes were spectacular. Tonight was the first game that Mourinho’s team was not physically overwhelmed by the Blaugranas, and that’s a victory in itself.

• Raphaël Varane is not the future of Real Madrid … is the present. The Frenchman was the man of the match and made clear that one of the positions in the merengues’ central defense belongs to him. The affected party? Pepe who, with the probable departure of Mourinho in the summer, will find himself in the transfer list.

• On the other hand, Carvalho and Callejón should not play one more minute in the team. Just do not have the level and are a drag on more or less important matches.

• Barcelona need David Villa. Or any striker who can put the ball in the net. In what may have been the weakest match of Lionel Messi in the season, the Blaugranas who found no one who could finish a groggy rival. Xavi, Cesc missed two chances each and Pedro wasted the clearest one. Barca could have won by a wide margin, if they had a killer in their ranks.

• Speaking of Messi, he and Ronaldo fell short tonight. You could say that Mourinho and Vilanova/Roura finally found a way to neutralize them, but surely it was an outlier, I have no doubt that in the next two clásicos, the Big Two will go back to their good ways.

• Interestingly, Barcelona’s best player was also a central defender. Gerard Piqué forgot the problems that plagued him last year and returned to the extraordinary level he had shown since arriving to the Camp Nou.

• Despite having conceded a draw in a game they should have won, Barcelona can be satisfied. The truth is that in the last four matches between the two arch-rivals, Real Madrid had been the one who had dictated the pace of the game, in this case the Catalans were the ones who decided the way to go, even if they couldn’t get the edge.

• Nevertheless, the atmosphere of this game was very different from the series of four Clasicos in 2011. Madrid came out to play, with their weapons, but came out to play. Nothing to do with the cheap shots, bad blood and Mourinho’s “trivote” with Pepe in the main stage.

• The second leg of the Cup will not be very different. The Barcelona will take the initiative and Madrid will take their chance in the counter. It wouldn’t surprise me if all ends in a draw again.

It was a big surprise. Most “insiders” assumed that Pep Guardiola would land in the Premier League next season. Manchester City seemed the most logical destination. Suddenly, he signed with Bayern Munich. It must have been a meditated decision, as most of what the coach has taken in his career and, at least in the surface, has certain logic to it.

In principle, because what steered Guardiola away from the game was the media circus and the partisanship of the press and Spanish fans. The constant tug of war with Mourinho and “his” journalists. The cheap shots and the low blows. In that sense, England, even without being the battlefield that Spain is, has probably the less ethical press in Europe (also the most ethical, but that’s another story) while, except for Bild, which is essentially pro- Bayern, German journalists do not usually mess with the private lives of footballers and managers.

In addition, assuming the Bayern’s helm, he does not risk encountering Mourinho in the near future. Not because he was afraid of the Portuguese coach but because his mind games proved exhausting for Guardiola and undoubtedly one of the factors that weighed in making the decision had to do with working in a low pressure environment.

Of course, Bayern are far from a small side, and they carry the same stress and fans’ demand for immediate results as Madrid or Barça but in terms of success and following, they occupy a throne that doesn’t have too many suitors. True, Borussia Dortmund took center stage last season, but this year the Bavarians have dominated the Bundesliga with absolute confidence so Pep’s top priority will be the 2013/2014 edition of the Champions League.

What should be clear is that the coach  from Santpedor will be judged by his results, but also the way he gets them. The Bavarian fans are used to winning, but Guardiola ‘s name evocates dreams of reviving at the Allianz Arena what they personally suffered when their team traveled to the Camp Nou. In Munich they want victories but also fantasy and spectacle. They want goals, but those that are forever remembered.

Could Pep replicate in Munich what he did in Barcelona? In an interview with FIFA.com that hasn’t yet been published but, with this decision, will become an even more essential read, the coach told my workmate Alejandro Varsky that the philosophy of Barcelona is only to pass the ball to an unmarked teammate and not lose it. In practice, of course, it’s way more complicated than that, -Juan Manuel Lillo, his mentor, said to me “it’s not simple, because nothing in life is simple” – and means to get the right players to pass the ball (even in the most difficult circumstances) to an unmarked teammate (even with the best defenders of the world behind them) and not to lose it (even if they are surrounded by four opponents).

Barca’s DNA was constructed by generation after generation learning the same system from the earliest age. Guardiola will not find that at Bayern, so he will need to be astute in the transfer market and intelligent in detecting the youth players that can immediately deliver to the team. In the first part the coach was far from flawless in his Barça stint, but it was his ability in the second which catapulted him to become one of the greatest in just a few years.

In Munich he will have much young talent to work with. Neuer has potential to be the best goalkeeper in the world. Alaba is in the top 3 of left backs, if not the top 1. Kroos, Müller and Martinez and are extraordinarily talented midfielders. Mandzukic has been one of the greatest surprises of the European season and Mario Gomez is returning from injury. The material is there, now Guardiola has to be able to accommodate it to bend it like Barça. It will be, perhaps, more difficult than it sounds but, can anyone doubt one the best coaches in the world in the last five years? I wouldn’t dare.

(EDIT: I would love to know what will Lippi and co. say now after the matches. Not just that there was no “biscotto” but Spain could have taken a goal on purpose in the last minute of their match after the Italian match had finished to send them out. It obviously didn’t happen, but I’m under the impression that it won’t do a thing against the conspiracy theorists who have their new theories ready for next time)

Italians love their conspiracy theories. Every time you talk to an Italian football fan, he will probably try to explain why football is completely taken over by two or three rich and influential guys and every match is rigged one way or the other. It’s part of their culture, they are born with them and will die with them.

In fact, we might say that in the dark shadows of the calcio world, those theories have some basis behind them. After all, this is a country in which the National team best striker was suspended (Paolo Rossi) for a year for fixing matches, which biggest team (Juventus) was relegated for buying referees and in which every four or five years there is a new scandal of some sort of cheating.

The problem is when they try to extrapolate their ghosts and apply them to everyone else. I know Italian fans are going to hate me for this but, for example, while the Korea-Spain in 2002 was an embarrassment for football in general, I don’t see anything wrong with the Italy match in that same World Cup. Despite having five of the best offensive players in the world at the moment (Vieri, Totti, Del Piero, Inzaghi, Montella), Giovani Trapattoni’s team was utterly crap. They should have gone out in the first round after losing to Croatia and being played out of the park by Mexico and they were the worse than Korea that night. The red card was soft, but not entirely unjustified and if Vieri scores that golden chance in the last minute of regular time, there wouldn’t even be a conversation about this.
Then there is the 2-2 in Euro 2004. It’s true that it was a suspicious result, albeit the match between Sweden and Denmark was quite entertaining and it didn’t seem fixed to a neutral eye. However, Italians tend to forget that their team was also awful in that competition, only defeating a very poor Bulgarian team in injury time, and that they had put themselves in that position by not being able to defeat two rivals that should be below their standards.

So, here we are in the same crossroads again, and it’s again Italy’s fault. Their result against Spain was great but to be honest they should have defeated Croatia. And now, they start to point fingers even before the last round of matches start because, well, it’s a great way of not taking the blame. No Italian fan remembers how awful the 2002 and 2004 teams were, only the “fixes” that happened in those tournaments.

Croatian right back Vedran Corluka said it better than anyone. “How dare you point fingers, Italians, after all the scandals in your country?” How dare Lippi imply that there will be a fix when his son was very much involved in the calciopoli scandal? How the media dare to say that there will be something irregular when they have probably the worst sports journalism in Europe, inventing stories as they breathe and working by the same obscure interests that they “denounce”.

The worst thing is, Spain and Croatia won’t draw 2-2. The Spanish players are too good for that and the team’s reputation is too important to take such a risk. But, it happened, there should be only one team to blame, and that are the Italians themselves, not that they are going to do it of course.

(EDIT: I had written this before reading Bill’s post, it meant no disrespect for him of course, just agreeing to disagree)

89th minute of the Spain-Ireland match, Vicente del Bosque’s biys had feasted with the caricature of team submitted by Giovanni Trapattoni. They had scored four goals, but could have been many more. After waiting ten years, the Irish had left the Euro 2012 by the back door, with two defeats and 7 goals received. A complete disaster.

Nevertheless, their fans were singing as if they had won. And then began the praise for the “best fans in the world,” the ones that travel with the team and support thim unconditionally, that are always faithful through thick and thin.

The problem is that, in my opinion, a fan like that and is far from being the best in the world. To explain why, let me describe a basic behavioral rule . Good actions have to be rewarded, bad actions punished. In this case, awarding such ovations to a performance as unfortunate as that of Ireland in the Euro, their fans only make the team complacent. Why kill yourself on the pitch if in the end it will not matter and you will get your standing ovation anyway?

Until recently, it happened with Spain. The “war song” of the fans at every major tournament was. “Alcohol, alcohol, we have come to get drunk, we don’t care about the result”. Of course, the team never won at that time, and now it’s an understatement that the song has complelely gone out of fashion each time La Roja play.

There is another thing as well. Those same Irish fans, when they home, quickly put their  Manchester United or Liverpool shirts and forget about the local game and the local teams. In doing so, they are doing no favours to the generation of new talent and perpetuate the mediocrity of their team. The best fans in the world? I would say they are rather among the worst.

As usual, I write from a train. Now is in one of the next-generation Hyundai ones that the Korean firm had it installed just before the Euro and that, in theory, would mean a step forward in communications between Ukrainian cities. I say in theory because, although the train looks spectacular, in practice has the same amount of problems of their old Tsarist colleagues.

For starters, the railways are not modern enough, so the faster the train can go is 160 kilometers per hour, which for Ukraine is great, but by European standards is still very slow. Then, if it rains, it becomes dangerous, so it must come down at about half the speed, which can turn a 7-hour trip between Kiev and Lviv, which in itself is long, into a nightmare 10 or 11. In theory, you have Internet access, air conditioning and electricity.

But in practice, the network is down and the electrical system and air-con only work when they feel like it. And to finish it off, trains tend to leave at 6 am, which, added to the late-match schedule of this Ukrainian Euro, has kept me from sleeping in a bed for the last five nights.

So what looks like a brand new train, actually works as irregularly as many things here. It is a good example of why there we shouldn’t always believe in first impressions. But a more important example of the same phrase is not be swayed by appearances in a major tournament. Always, at the end of the first round of matches, critics and fans forecast their candidates, pencil new favorites or suggest unexpected stars to follow … and usually fail.

If they were right, then Argentina would always be world champions, Italy would never win a major trophy and the best player in history would have been Daniel Amokachi (if you do not know who he is, google him. He was fantastic in his first appearance in a World Cup with Nigeria). However, as we know, Albiceleste always play great in their first match and end up failing miserably, the Azzurri are often a disaster in the group stages and reach the final and Amokachi, despite shortly playing in the Premier League a while, returned quickly into the darkness.

I must plead guilty of the same sin in the Euro. After the first few games, I was sure that Russia would go really far, that Germany were not as good as everybody painted them and that would lose against Holland, and that, after their good draw against Spain, Italy would do better than what I initially thought.

Of course, nothing is written yet, but in their second game against Poland, the Russians were far from the bulldozer that had destroyed the Czech Republic. The Germans, on the other hand, were dominant against a very poor Dutch team that can’t blame bad luck of their defeat. Italy, meanwhile, returned to the mediocrity that their squad indicated in their second match against Croatia, which is now in an excellent position to qualify. And Spain, that everybody criticized after their first match, will be praised to death after demolishing Ireland.

Sometimes we let our eyes deceive our brains, and in a football tournament that’s usually a fatal error. To win a Euro, a team must survive six games, seven to win a World Cup, and is ridiculous to think that after the first one and we know who will be the best player, the next champion … or the most modern train.

Oh luck… So underrated in football and in life. It seems like it hurt us to recognize that our destiny is not really defined by us but by a series of events as unpredictable and unexpected, and all that we can do is prepare as best as possible, knowing that everything can go wrong, though we did everything right.

Juan Manuel Lillo argues forcefully that managers have to be judged by the processes they undertake with clubs rather than by their results. Of course, he’s covering his own ass, but he’s also right when he states “I have done the same things in several different clubs. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose, but that shouldn’t change my philosophy”.

One example I often use to explain this is that of Coach Enrique Meza in Mexican side Pachuca. When his era began, his team lost their first six games. A defeat in the seventh would have given him the sack as Jesús Martínez, the club owner, accepted years later. The team won that match with a lot of luck, then became unstoppable and went on to win three titles in four years.

In Euro 2012 this examples are countless, even if so few games have been played. Yesterday I was asked in Goal.com to write an analysis piece of the Germany-Netherlands match because, with a victory, the Mannschaft would essentialy eliminate their arch-rivals. They thought I would say that Löw’s boys were favorites after defeating Portugal, while van Maarwijk’s side fell against a very limited Danish team. They were wrong. In my opinion, Holland played much better than Germany and should be considered  favorites in the match between them. They created countless opportunities, completely overplayed their opponents and may have shown the more enjoyable style of any team in the tournament. They were just unlucky.

Germany on the other hand, had a four-leaf clover on their asses. While Robben and company kept on shooting balls against the posts, Gomez scored his only real chance when he was only a minute away from being substituted. Before that Pepe’s shot came back-off the bar and on the line and later on, Neuer had to work some late-time heroics to save the result.

Yesterday, it was the same in the Spain-Italy match. Cesc was, without doubt, the weakest link in Vicente del Bosque’s clearly wrong strategy, and somehow, he scored the equalizer, which made the coach feel vindicated when in realty he had screwed things up. Italy, on the other hand, played a lot worse in the second half than in the first, but could have won the match had not Balotelli not missed a very clear chance and goal-scorer Di Natale missed a volley in front of Casillas.

A second or an inch of difference can rewrite history. Of course, none of those involved, and few journalists spoke of luck when describing what happened because it is easier to find explanations, even if they are wrong. So shall we always be convinced to be right even if, in realty no one actually is, because the world is still a totally unpredictable place… and football is quite an unpredictable sport.