It’s an awful, awful image to all non-LA fans and these feelings are natural and, as such, should be entirely acceptable – or at least no more objectionable than those thoughts about your mother. Now, where are my cigars…

To take this conversation off the couch, consider this: when was the last time any MLS club ran wire-to-wire? I’ve got DC’s second season in my mind as I type, but even assuming another team managed the trick between here and there, clubs riding unholy late-season tears to MLS Cup triumph constitutes the norm over the past few seasons. Other clubs enjoyed their hot flashes in 2011, sure, but LA trudged through the year with zombie-esque inevitability – that’s to say, it wasn’t always exciting to watch, but they just…kept…coming. In hindsight (or at least squeezed through the frame I just concocted), Real Salt Lake’s take-down of the Seattle Sounders now seems like the self-destructive in-fighting so familiar from zombie movies (aka the training manuals for the Zombie Apocalypse). Zombies always get their brains, people, it’s about keeping our heads…

There’s also a flip-side to this progression, a trick of the mind that echoes a common thought from across the pond: think “boring, boring LA.” The simple fact is, look at LA’s season and you see a rash of 1-0 grinds (well, you see eight of ‘em anyway) and more 2-1 games than, say, 3-1 or 4-0. Moreover, LA came out on the wrong side of the result where the score-line got interesting (see results against RSL and Portland). Part of that’s normal – soccer is notorious, in most circles, for low scoring – but “built-for-thrills” hardly fits LA.

On the other hand, LA’s remarkable steadiness prompted me to watch them this year – and I did, even if struggled to stay awake through some of them. It was as much about seeing who might knock them off their stride as anything; it’s significant, without question, that only five teams managed to do so – and each of them only once. And, looky here, the Dynamo were the last team to do it…though it bears acknowledging that significance diminishes with each name you read on LA’s roster for that game.

I’ll turn to Houston in a bit (scratch that; it will be eventually and only cursorily), but there’s another oddity about LA: their almost implausible mix of Big Stars and loyal soldiers. Every semi-sentient MLS fan can name LA’s marquee players – Landon Donovan, Robbie Keane, and…um…there’s one more, it’ll come to me in a minute – and there’s no question they have real talent elsewhere: Omar “On the Bubble” Gonzalez and Donovan “When Healthy” Ricketts. Throw in Juninho – what the heck? – maybe even Sean Franklin, but the lights grow dimmer the deeper you go into the locker room.

Consider Mike Magee, Todd Dunivant, and A. J. DeLaGarza; now keep digging down the barrel and consider Chad Barrett, Adam Cristman, or even the fact LA still carries Jovan Kirovski (!) on their roster. These aren’t stars. As much as I admire Barrett personally – that man must have elephant’s skin to put up with all the doubt – these are players your club could trade tomorrow without you blinking never mind sending distress signals to every fellow fan you know or setting the nearest message board on fire with your worry. The point is, LA has gone as close to compiling a perfect season (19-5-10!) as MLS clubs are likely to and all with a roster that somehow feels, for lack of a better word, limited, as if it runs into dead-ends here and there. On the flip-side, those second-banana forwards go some way to explaining all those 1-0 games…

To drag it back to the field, mlssoccer.com’s Kick-Off led with talk (and extensive links) of last night’s conference final between RSL and LA flirting with “best ever” status. At least one article led with the thought that, whatever happens two weeks hence, at least some folks out there feel like MLS Cup effectively happened. It’s not a crazy point and, yeah, that was a hell of a game and I’m arguably of the school that if RSL couldn’t do it, I’m not sure who can. Gods only know how things would have panned out had Kyle Beckerman knocked in that late, first-half effort instead of knocking it off the post…though, going the other way, Robbie Keane’s might have killed the game early instead of late had he not hit the post. There’s something about the pointlessness of pondering these things in there.

All the same, I couldn’t get sucked in because there’s just this…thing about LA this year. I don’t like it, that stench of inevitability wafting into the room like so much rotting flesh, but to deny it feels foolish. The one key thing that felt inevitable last night was Robbie Keane scoring. LA will always be hell to beat – Bruce Arena can organize the shit out of a team – but a forward capable of making his own chances gets them to the proverbial 11. Say what you will about Jamison Olave’s health (yeah, it probably mattered) and loathe as I am to buy into hype, if there’s something that puts LA over the top for me, it looks something like Keane.

On the plus side, we’ll all have a chance – at last – to actually bat around things like what happened in games, or even some of the Big News stuff that happens outside – say, significant retirements*. If there’s one thing I didn’t like about this year’s post-season, it made possible only half-digested thoughts. I mean, the wild card games kicked off the twenty-freakin’-sixth of October and here we’ve only dipped our toes into November: put another way, we went from knowing nothing about MLS Cup to knowing everything in just 12 days’ time. In a very real sense, I have to wonder if it was even possible for a wild card team to survive the experience. That, to me, begs very real questions about why you go through with it – especially with the pressure applied by the international calendar in play.

I’m still very impressed with MLS’s post-season “product.” Even games that had me worried – Houston hosting Philadelphia, to name one – featured solid turn-outs and, to give the players immense credit, all concerned generally played with verve and control. To raise a point, perhaps even stretch one, I have to wonder if the games wouldn’t have been sharper on more lively legs.

That turns this all, at last and with my apologies, to Houston: how much did fatigue play a role in Brad Davis’ injury? The Dynamo’s surprise run – and it was a surprise, wasn’t it? – makes writing them off seem silly, but Davis going down reduces a big, physical, determined club with a dash of finesse to a big, physical, determined club. And that’s Colorado, at least when they can actually field a team. I suppose I don’t see why they can’t beat LA in LA – and I won’t pretend I don’t want them to, and badly – but I would have liked their chances a hell of a lot better with Davis dishing the set-pieces. Unhinging a team as organized as LA will take something special and, frankly, Houston’s lost that. It will be a night for blunt instruments, quite possibly going both ways. The only plus comes with the fact that LA will likely struggle to break down Houston…but there’s that thing about Keane to consider…sigh.

In closing, I at least hope that MLS’s scheduling people consider the rate at which bodies seemed to break down right at the post-season – it’s a minor miracle Colorado managed to so much as field a team.

* I’m referring, of course, to Kasey Keller’s retirement. I don’t know if anyone out there has considered scheduling something when the playoff madness is over, but the lack of eulogies for a player of Keller’s stature depressed me a little, even as I understand the way it happened at a damned busy time. Speaking personally, I’ve advanced to middle age right beside Mr. Keller, I’ve driven on the Boulevard named after him, and there’s something to the way he was able to come home to MLS that, by some inexplicable trick of the mind, made the league feel even more established. Hell, I even had time to develop a love/hate feeling for him as a player thanks to him playing in Seattle and me living in Portland. He had a fascinating career in the end, one as a kind of standard-bearer for Yanks Abroad, which in turn bestowed on him a kind of “Great White Hope” appeal with regard to the U.S. Men’s National Team. Whether justified or not – and Brad Friedel’s turn in World Cup 2002 makes one think it wasn’t – Keller kind of hovered out there as one of those players who could suit up for the U.S. and make a big difference. Regardless his unexpected ability to get under my skin a little in a Sounders uniform, there’s no question he made Seattle a better team. Here’s to wishing the man a great retirement and saying thanks!

“The Seattle Sounders arrived in Utah on a hot streak expecting a Rocky Mountain high, but they received a Real spanking instead; just a couple mountain ridges over, Eastern Conference Champs, Sporting Kansas City, took that one toke over the line, leaving the Colorado Rapids sprawled on the turf of Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in wounded defeat. Elsewhere, playoff debutantes, the Philadelphia Union, raised questions as to whether they’re ready for their Cotillion, collapsing under an Orange Crush that recalled Houston’s glory years. Finally, MLS heavyweights Red Bull New York and the LA Galaxy clashed in what some expected to be most-highly anticipated tilt of the MLS playoffs; a post-game brawl that started with a cheap-shot girl-slap ended with red cards and expectations of an even hotter clash for the return leg in Los Angeles.”

Ahem…back to normal now.

For me, and this is having downed just over half the Playoff Punch, a couple things stood out tall on the first leg of MLS’s actual post-season. (NOTE: Even though I would have squealed like a Bieber Believer had the Portland Timbers made it, I’m still against the play-ins). The paragraph above gets to one piece of it – that’s the presentation side, the issue of the foot MLS put forward on that first leg – but the other piece comes by way of what the games did or didn’t do for The Big Reveal (…sorry about the image…I wanted something about legs, something noticeable). The inspiration for the latter should be obvious, but that’s for Part II….look for the Springsteen quote to flag the transition…

Now that we’re at the season’s show-piece, how do the MLS playoffs look to you – especially those watching at home? Do they rise to the occasion, do they feel big enough to carry the expectations that, at long last (c’mon, admit it; it’s a damn long season), we’ve reached the best part of the year? By way of a quick judgment, I’ll only say the voice-over guy gives it his all. If I had to guess, he came in at least third for the NFL Films gig, that’s at a minimum.

What I’m really talking about, though, are the studio sets – especially at the half(ves) – the in-game commentary, and, the simplest measure of all, how the whole thing looks. This reporter (or “I”) took in the following (and in the following settings): RSL v. Seattle (in the Mexican bar across the street where, I swear, they tried to pretend they don’t get FSC); the first 30 minutes of Red Bull v. LA (in the gym on a treadmill, but blissfully distraction-free for as long as it lasted); Philly v. Dynamo (comfort of my home, but with more distractions than a friggin’ haunted house…though I did jump less).

Take away the obvious – yeah, FSC’s studio looks double-wide cheap and, boy, was that a nasty gash across New York’s field – and I’d say it looks all right, if not pretty dang good. Yeah, I’m a sucker for that voice-over dude – that portentous purr in his voice…shh, ignore the tingling… – but most venues did well enough for crowds and noise, even Colorado. Sure, I’m dreading the mid-week – not in Seattle so much and hopefully not KC, but one never knows – but the openers looked good.

More importantly, the Saturday double-header set the right “big time” tone if only through being unfamiliar.
If there’s a downside in any of this, it’s FSC’s shotgun-shack studio. Even if I give an edge to ESPN’s on-air talent – setting aside the match commentators, who I barely notice any more, that’s Max Bretos, Alexi Lalas, and, in what I thought a nice touch, Alejandro Moreno – FSC’s facilities could make the King’s Speech come off looking sleazy and inspiring as directions on a Jell*O box. That’s to say, I don’t think Bretos & Co. stand that much taller competence-wise than little Jimmy Conrad piping up between the increasingly corpulent on-air pair of Eric Wynalda and Christopher Sullivan. (NOTE: I have nothing against overweight people…I just don’t expect to see soccer players balloon like that.) The simple fact is, ESPN can lend MLS fairly impressive, ready-made digs for any occasion. The more product the league gets there going forward the better it’s going to look, plain ‘n’ simple…only two FSC broadcasts to go, people. Stay strong…

Bottom line, I’m pretty happy and believe the league done good, generally, to extent, even, of feeling hopeful for respectable-to-decent midweek crowds. It’s just a damned lucky thing RSL v. Seattle wound up on FSC. Ah, there’s my segue…

“Hey, baby, I’m just about starvin’ tonight…”
- Bruce Springsteen

Knowing I’m not speaking for Seattle fans, I think that game could have aired on public access and it still would have buzzed. Where to begin with that one, a game when RSL turned in – yeah, I’m saying it – a performance for the ages? The game proved the lethality of mixing talent with intensity; the crisp passing and clean possession made it fun to watch, but the way damn near every RSL player clamped down on the nearest Sounder defined the effort, even made it something special. I remember late in the game – but, curse those Pacificos, I can’t remember names – when a Seattle player shook loose for a split second near the top of the 18; the Sounder wound up and, out of freakin’ nowhere (I mean, literally, this came from off-camera) Ned Grabavoy (OK, maybe him) lunges in front of the shot. The extent to which that happened all night must have made for harrowing viewing for anyone so much as remotely connected to Seattle. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if random Seattleites caught a chill that night they just…couldn’t explain. Simply thrilled to have caught this one…and, no, the outcome didn’t hurt.

The point is, and this ties into the above, this game made for brilliant viewing. Blind-sided as they were, Seattle woke up enough to make this game ripple with the kind of affirming intensity that positively screams, “YES! This matters, dammit!” No other game buzzed quite like RSL v. Seattle – I’d go so far as to suggest I scented a bit of predictable in them – but that only makes it more fortunate that they all issued from the tidier platform.

All the same, the remaining games dished out intrigue and talking points with impressive reliability. It’s also not to say those truly lacked in intensity – I mean, the sheer number of injuries alone bespeaks outings where legs swung dangerously and sometimes too damn high (I’m looking at you, Gabe Farfan…or was it Michael?). I’m going to wrap up here with what thoughts come to mind for the second legs. It shouldn’t drag on…much.

Sporting KC v. Colorado Rapids
I caught only the highlights and, courtesy of it being on FSC Wednesday, I won’t see the second leg either. But there are so many reasons to count out the Rapids – and that’s before considering they never really looked like much this year. So noting KC’s two-goal edge, the fact that Colorado has to play in KC, plus the rash of injuries that nailed Colorado between the play-in and the first leg…well, it all just feels like piling on. KC almost has to win.

Seattle Sounders v. Real Salt Lake
I fully expect Seattle to make a game – and thereby a series – out of this one. For one, I’d be absolutely shocked if RSL can play at the same level they did Saturday – words like “frenzied” and “possessed” come to mind, along with phrases like, “did Jason Kreis kidnap and threaten their children?” – without fatigue swallowing whomever doesn’t fall to injury. Speaking of injuries, it hardly helped to have both Jamison Olave and Nat Borchers go down. On the credit side for RSL, they struggled most this season when injury mauled the offense; I rate their backup defenders as serviceable enough, especially if the possession game stays on. It’s a hell of a hole they’re in, without question, but Seattle literally led the league in scoring. Just think of what it would look like, how absolutely mad Qwest Field would go, if Seattle pulls it off.

Houston Dynamo v. Philadelphia Union
No small part of me wants to see Philly pull off the shocker, but I’d have to put the odds of that somewhere equal to getting away with pulling The Shocker on a first date. The broadcast team – it was Taylor Twellman and….some other guy – had it right when they noted Houston could have left PPL Park with a 4-1 advantage. Nothing stood out so much as Philly looking clueless in the attack and much, much smaller on set-pieces on both ends besides. The idea of them scoring more than two seems even crazier than Houston failing to score at all.

LA Galaxy v. Red Bull New York
To address the big point, Rafa Marquez, for all his talent, is a spoiled punk and New York is better off without him. Given the number simple traps and limp passes I’ve seen him fail to make or make, respectively, he’d do well to shut up and play. With the dueling red cards, LA took the bigger blow to personnel – LA’s Juninho does a lot for them – without question. I found little to love in the 30 minutes I saw – in so many words, a dourly methodical LA playing cat-style with a New York club out of its depth – which makes LA’s unwillingness and/or inability to increase their advantage the only surprise . Small wonder the game ended in a fit. For all the talk of a late season revival – and as much as I agree the defense improved – New York benefited as much from others’ failures as their own improvement. I think the big question is whether LA insults New York by resting a player or two. I’d be tempted – I’m just sayin’ – and I’d reap that whirlwind.

Well, that’s it. It’s possible I’ll try to post something quick between the end of this round or that, but time is hard to come by these days. Enjoy the second legs…I have every reason to believe we all should.

I haven’t cracked a dictionary to confirm, but the third or fourth definition of desperation might say something about checking your cable providers’ channel line-up to look for a channel you know you don’t get. Say, TSN2. So, let’s start this by flipping Major League Soccer a big ol’ bird (perhaps with hair on the knuckles) for pulling coverage on the MLS MatchDay Live right before the first ball gets kicked for post-season 2011. They’ll have to answer to still another crowd for hating on the Spanish-language channels…(hmm, the site lists Galavision, but I don’t see them in this announcement).

The “pisser quotient” only grows when one considers these same honchos invited what seemed like everyone to the post-season party – over half the league, as it happens, and with only half of that bunch really deserving to make it. This, admittedly, reeks of a hoary old gripe: too many teams in the playoffs, too many of them mediocre. But it’s the last piece of that – e.g. the sense of mediocrity – that feels different this year. Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me, but enough clubs backed into the 2011 post-season that the whole affair feels like a demolition derby with cars that only drive in reverse.

Well, not all of them: there’s the LA Galaxy and the Seattle Sounders, the likeliest favorites and two clubs driving very much in forward gears. But they’re exceptions and that reality gets clearer with each passing week.

Whatever will be will be, obviously, but this post is as much about looking backward as forward…especially seeing how I’m going to struggle with that whole looking forward thing (stupid lack of access). I don’t know what accounts for this 2011, this season of such bewilderingly slippery form for so many clubs. Is it more clubs and the resulting dilution of talent? The over-supply of games grinding down last year’s winners into this year’s gasping also-rans? A need for larger rosters? A need for a more selective playoff format? Eh, maybe. Or, more honestly, got me.

I’ll get into bullet points somewhere in here, I’m sure, but I intend to paint this narrative with a broad-brush. This story of an entire season attempts to answer the question of why only two teams really look the part out of a field of ten. Seeing as I’ve got to start somewhere, it may as well be out West because just about all the teams out there started hot.

Real Salt Lake came out flying and damn-near won the regional club crown – legitimately at that; my personal, and serial, dubbing of FC Dallas as the team I’d least like to play; LA very quietly coming close to breaking the all-time, single-season points total just last night: throw in the Colorado Rapids if you’re so inclined (I’m not), but the West Conference jumped far ahead enough of the Eastern that most people I read (small crowd) raised the question of why the East bothered at least once this season. Seattle, while never far out of the picture, was the only club that well and truly surged late – and damn did they surge! Anyone’s money looked safe on a six-four West/East split for post-season spots; at the right time in the season, even a 7-3 split might have found some takers.

Now, all these clubs – LA, Seattle, RSL, Colorado, and Dallas – ultimately held on, even allowing for the final 5-5, even-Stevens split. Taking away LA and Seattle for the moment, the question at hand – and especially over the playoff’s first round – boils down to what happened with the other three clubs. Dallas seems simplest: fatigue swallowed them so totally that, in the last two months of the season, as weird loses stacked up – a skunking at home to Toronto? A loss to that Houston club at home? 2011’s New England?! – they simply lost their capacity to surprise. RSL, the team that seemed poised to produce the truly magical combination of style and results, stumbled through the middle of the year riding games in hand that their reputation promised to make good. Only it, and they never did, or at least not really. It’s totally fair to claim injuries – they bit hard and deep, along with the absences – but the issues never resolved. Javier Morales’ returned, but the team has yet to settle into rhythm. More to the point, RSL’s hunger for points has them inching the effort envelope to thug territory. It’s not just Kyle Beckerman’s proverbial moment of madness, here, but an overall “hard” approach I’ve caught glimpses of that makes me think this team is struggling to regain what made it work.

Those are the surprises. As for Colorado, well, the know-it-all in me wants to write that I never really bought it. And there’s a case for this in terms of total points: weigh things one way and they’re at the points equivalent of the muddled mix atop the East. I’ll only say this: Colorado attempted upgrades in the right places – Caleb Folan at forward, for example – but the fact they’re essentially fielding last year’s championship team minus Conor Casey gets at why they never really hit top gear this season.

That proximity – which as alluded to above, is a late phenomenon – gets back to that ugly demolition derby theme. Line up the teams, less Seattle and LA, and consider their point totals:

Real Salt Lake: 53 points, +8 goal differential
FC Dallas: 52 points, +3
Sporting KC: 51 points, +10
Houston Dynamo: 49 points, +4
Colorado: 49 points, +3
Philadelphia Union: 48 points, +8
Columbus Crew: 47 points, -1 (!)
New York Red Bulls: 46 points, +6

Finally turning to the East, count Sporting KC the only team that comes out of that bunch looking good. No one else has the excuse of kicking off the season with an interminable, punishing road trip and – can you dig it? – they’ve got the best goal differential of this mob to boot. It takes the perspective, really, of the fall of key Western clubs to get out just how thoroughly screwed up most of the East was this year. New York sucked bad enough for a local writer to more or less write them off; Columbus played like old drunks – i.e. they had fine days when they had the wherewithal to step over the pink elephants; even as I loathe them for failing to beat New York, I cut Philly some slack as a second year team, especially one that had to wait most of the season for their talisman (Sebastian Le Toux) to get with the magic.

Before closing the book on the East, however, it’s worth pausing to give credit where it’s due. That 5-5 East/West split didn’t happen by accident, but came instead on the back of solid months, whatever their providence, by clubs like Houston (13 points in their last five) and New York (10 points). By way of perspective, the red-hot Seattle Sounders picked up one point less than Houston; providing perspective from the other direction, Houston’s victories generally came over the weak and limping and, yes, the Chicago Fire also matched Seattle’s output. Still, getting results when you need them gets you in the playoffs. And maybe that’s a sign of things to come.

Still, there’s that, an argument that we set out the fine china, pulled the good stuff out of the cellar, even put a tablecloth on the damn table, and…this…this rabble, this gaggle of Philistines shows up for the big party. Like I said way up at the top, LA and Seattle definitely deserve it, add Sporting KC for their second half, maybe Philly on pity…maybe RSL and Colorado for old time’s sake…and, OK, Houston for their stellar home form and late run – I mean, anything less and they could be huddled on Granville Street with the Vancouver Whitecaps. The point is, one runs out of strong arguments to add this or that team to the invitation list pretty damn quickly. I’m sure there are nuances in there I’m glossing over (with extreme carelessness) attributes that make this club or that more worthy, but form doesn’t tell too many lies. And too many of these clubs crashing the post-season party know consistency only by rumor.

But here’s the fucked up thing (excuse my French,but it is when you think about what playoffs should be): all this mediocrity makes for a more interesting post-season (and do note I said “interesting” as opposed to “riveting,” or “inspiring,” or “killer,” or even “pretty.” By that I mean, I have no friggin’ idea what’s going to happen Wednesday and Thursday, never mind this weekend when the playoffs begin in earnest. Hell, if RSL gets randy, even Seattle might crash out. And to close with a truly positive spin: I saw some of the best games all year over the past weekend (DC v. Portland and Columbus v. Chicago), games – no, events – just pulsing with energy and action, beautiful, heart-stopping end-to-end madness that positively forbade a body from a trip to the bathroom. If you excuse the lack of grace, even allow for clumsiness, these can be great games. Here’s to hoping that the actual playoff atmosphere doesn’t stifle the fun.

Think what you like, but that’s how I’m going to remember 2011. It’s kind of like Andrew Jackson’s inaugural, only without everyone going nuts over the issue of a national bank. And so, with that grand (exceedingly loose) narrative in the rearview, let us proceed to handicapping the matchups – if only for the midweek wild-card affairs. I promised bullet points and I can’t think of a better way to introduce them. The weekend games are another subject for a later date; as you’ll see with the programming notes below, the newly-adopted theme for this space is “FOCUS.”

Whatever happens, enjoy it. And, though I’d be happier if my bunch made the trip to Dallas, good luck to the participants.

FC Dallas v. New York Red Bulls
Why Dallas Will Win: OK, here’s the thing: Dallas can win when they have to – see late-season victories over Vancouver and Chicago (and ignore hand-shaped red mark left by that spanking by Toronto). They still possess good speed in multiple places – Jackson, Marvin Chavez, Jair Benitez, etc. – plus they rested a bunch of starters (Brek Shea, Daniel Hernandez, Ricardo Villar…assuming he makes it) to make one think they might have taken the right steps.
Why New York Will Win: Well, they did it for one, and not all that long ago. More to the point, since joining the gritty Stephen Keel with the cerebral (Adlai Stevenson?) Tim Ream, New York’s defense has improved; it only helps that Dallas has Maicon Santos leading the line. Rafa Marquez’s less hectic distributing role, where he only needs to read the game and clog lanes, seems to suit him (though he’s still passing some dogs out there). Add in an ‘ealthy Thierry Henry, Dane Richards, and at least 50% of Luke Rodgers, they can get a goal – and that could be enough.
Who Wins: I’m seeing one of those ugly, 1-0 playoff scraps, where one team scores early and shuts it down. So I’m saying New York, with another early Dane Richards goal and gritty defense to ride it out.

Colorado Rapids v. Columbus Crew
Why Colorado Will Win: God knows. OK, in all honesty, I haven’t watched enough of Colorado – typically doesn’t reward the viewer – to say for sure what makes them good beyond the generic. They’re solid (they have a core like a yoga master) and just enough threat up top to beat anyone on their day. In other words, the D and midfield is set, but, as much as I like the Omar Cummings/ Sanna Nyassi combo, I’d try a big/small Caleb Folan/Nyassi set against Columbus.
Why Columbus Will Win: God knows. On a more serious level, Columbus has some sincerely dangerous players – guys like Andres Mendoza, Emanuel Ekpo, and Eddie Gaven, who combine pretty well to create opportunities. And they’re tough enough all over, at least generally, that Colorado will have to be pretty amped to win this one.
Who Wins: OK, again, God knows. My head says Colorado, my heart Columbus. Being an emotional sort of guy, I’m going with Columbus.

That’s it. A big, hearty “you’re welcome” to both the teams I picked to lose…because my predictions mean you’re going to win!

* So, what’s going to happen, at least during the 2012 season (assuming sanity/no freakouts) is a weekly post on exactly one topic, ideally something not terribly long. I’ll augment this with a repeating “Best of___” collection that will, ideally, capture more obvious day-to-day micro-trends. I don’t yet have a plan for the off-season, but suspect it will be something weekly and, as with the regular season, something that trucks in exactly one topic. Here’s to hoping it works…

With visitors to this site arriving in half-interested window-shoppers, the temptation to just quietly walk away from this site (again) struck late last week. Inspired by…well, gods know what, but it’s probably a form of addiction, failing to wrap up the Portland Timbers’ inaugural season just felt all kinds of wrong. It was just a question of how to do it.

The answer came by way of the tiny-type blurb about the upcoming expansion draft, which was tucked at the bottom of the local paper’s preview of the season finale versus RSL. A long walk through what went wrong and right seemed a less elegant way of looking backwards and forwards at the Timbers’ fate in 2011 and their fortunes in 2012 than discussing the nitty and the gritty of the players I’d like to see Portland’s powers-that-be keep for next season.

So, the eleven (11) players I’d protect appear in the list below (and here’s the current roster for your reference). Consider, as you consider them, where they line up, because that gets pretty directly at what went right and wrong in 2011.

Jake Gleeson
Troy Perkins
Eric Brunner
Mamadou “Futty” Danso
Lovel Palmer
Mike Chabala
Diego Chara
Eric Alexander
Jack Jewsbury
Darlington Nagbe
Jorge Perlaza

As you can see, I kept most of the defensive corps – especially in the center and our ‘keepers – because that’s where I feel we have building blocks for the future, or a good foundation. I like our defensive midfield as well, so there’s that. Now, it might be hard to argue a strong defense when the various defensive set-ups fielded during the campaign allowed a league-fifth-worst 48 goals. The response to that would point to the defense’s improvement over the course of the season. Put it this way: what’s the season’s halfway point? Say, end of June? Ooh…turns out things look even better.

If you count only the last 17 league games, it turns out Portland allowed only one goal a game. Not bad for a rag-tag bunch of cast-offs and rookies…and, OK yes, some wanted parts acquired during the season. Consider those numbers and it gets easier to make choices as to who’s out and who’s in for the Timbers’ 2012.

So. The attack. It might also be instructive to note that Portland scored 19 goals during that time – only marginally more than they coughed up. Another unfortunate detail to consider: six of those 19 goals came in two games, versus LA and New England. So, arguably re-write that as 13 goals scored over 15 games and you arrive at a pretty plausible right-track, wrong-track narrative.

Yeah, I put damn near every attacking player on the shelf and here’s why: basically, I think our attacking/creative players didn’t show enough to make me think of any of them as indispensable. Moreover, the rules for the 2012 Expansion Draft mean we’ll lose one player at most (and, in point of fact, that we’ll have fewer hard choices to make with regard to protecting players, what with the quirks about “special players” – e.g. Generation Adidas, foreign, blah, blah, blah; this is, frankly, the arcane crap I ignore). In other words, most of them will stick and that’s not so bad so long as you hold to the theory that labels none indispensable. This serves another purpose as well: the feeling of vulnerability should light a fire under the asses of those who respond to that sort of thing. In terms of approach, we generally relied on a punt-‘n’-rush approach and, I’d argue, that’s why we got what we got. A little more thought, a little improvement in the combination play, and greater comfort playing in tighter quarters are what this (admittedly untrained, possibly unqualified) doctor orders

The long and the short of it is that I feel like the Timbers are heading into next season with a pretty good foundation: I’d like to see an offseason focus that fills in some blanks in the offense, maybe upgrading on some particular talent sets here and there. Now, this isn’t to say all the calls about who’s in and who’s out came easy. With that in mind, I’d like to close by defending some of seemingly odd choices and explaining some of the trade-offs. May as well start with the biggest head-scratcher – at least to anyone Dynamo fans who visit:

Mike Chabala
I kept him because I believe he’s a great locker-room guy, kind of a “psycho for the team” attitude. And that’s a pretty big upside when your team isn’t a force.

Perlaza over Kenny Cooper
I love Cooper’s heart and attitude – I even appreciated the sub-text of his early-ish freakout about taking a third consecutive PK against DC – but the fact he’s not fast and crafty enough to take on players combines fatally, in my book, with his habit of drifting too far from the regular forward channel. Perlaza perhaps didn’t show the killer instinct I’d like to see, but I like his mobility and think he’ll combine better with Portland’s remaining forwards…all of whom I expect will be safe from Montreal’s grasping hands.

Alexander over Kalif Alhassan
Call this another simple preference: I think Alexander combines better and believe we need that quality in the team. Alhassan’s has to-die-for ball skillz, but he also has a horrible habit of holding, holding, holding…HOLDING! And then it’s too late.

Barely on – Darlington Nagbe
He just didn’t light it up for me, but maybe that’s his way of warding off a sophomore slump (we can hope, right?).

Toughest Exposures, in no particular order
Sal Zizzo, who unhinged defenses more than once…it’s just the end-result issue that did it; Rodney Wallace, I think we’ll keep him, for one, but I like his upside going forward (his defending…not so much); Eddie Johnson, who looked as good as any Portland forward for the few games he was on…it’s just that he was on for so few games.

With that, it’s goodbye to the Timbers till next year…and, depending on what I decide to do with this space, perhaps for good. They are my team and always will be, but I think focusing on them limits what I can do elsewhere. I’m working on getting an approach/format that I like between now and 2012 and believe I am making some progress. I intend to keep posting through the off-season and hope that, by the time next season kicks off, I’ll have something that people will enjoy reading as much as I enjoy writing.

Believe it or not, figuring out what day of the week to post is among my hardest decisions. Feel free to forward nominations.

Whoops. One last sub-feature to sneak in: the Coolest Thing I Saw This Week:
- If you watch either the highlights or the full game of the Seattle Sounder win over the San Jose Earthquakes, watch the crowd carefully at 65:07 and look for the black guy triumphing in the moment by yelling to the heavens and flipping off the world. Yes! (Save yourself some time; here are the highlights; just watch the game clock then look for 65:07. Few things say “celebration” like a big “fuck you” to the entire world.)

Now, to start with the Timbers… who doesn’t start a night out with a shot?

Shot) The Timbers, and the Only Topic in Town
I’m trying to come up with a snazzy title for this feature – “Weekly Log” or maybe “A Shot of Wood” – but that might not come till next season. At any rate, yeah, talk about in Portland centers, inevitably, on the post-season push. How do I know this? I have at least two people ask me every day whether or not Portland’s out of it. So, the question is…are they? The math is pretty simple at least: if Portland wins their final two games, and Red Bull New York loses or draws against the Philadelphia Union, Portland is in. On the plus side, New York’s side of the equation pencils out very, very nicely. Portland’s? Eh, not so much. The funny thing is, I’m more worried about DC United than Real Salt Lake. Anyone who read last week’s post (see #5) knows Chicago made my list of teams I’d hate to meet right now, so DC’s loss only surprised in terms of manner (two goals past the 90th?) and not result. DC’s slump is horrific to be sure, but Portland has rocked the “winning-once-a-month” program since the start of September and there’s something about being on the road that throws us…maybe the pillows aren’t quite right, I don’t know. As much faith as I put in New York losing – and thank you, Mr. Henry for that stupid, stupid (and intentional for my money) challenge – Portland has to overcome not just three points, but a mountain of a goal differential. Is all lost? Nope. The local sports guy, who at the start of 2011 was as close as you can get to a non-soccer guy without being confirmed, wrote a pretty nice column that reflects how well this team has done on and off the field. In a word, it’s been killer. I’m pulling like mad for two wins and hope I witness them, but I’m bracing for something else. Because that’s how I roll.

Now, the Five Nifties…

1) Letting Go of Our Woobie (aka, Steve Cherundolo)
It wasn’t such a bad outing for the U.S. v. Ecuador – or, at least the doubt didn’t linger like it did after Honduras. For what it’s worth, and its overall ineffectuality acknowledged, I do think the U.S. attack looks a little more interesting; I think a couple old faces (DaMarcus Beasley and Oguchi Onyewu) stepped in very nicely; Clint Dempsey has positively buffed and shined his game and, while I miss the rougher, bolder edges, I don’t mind it so much: there are things to like, in other words. That said and acknowledged, creeping, discomfiting concerns arose in one position I know I’ve taken for granted for quite a while: Steve Cherundolo’s right back position. Now, given Ecuador’s speed out wide this game would have tested put-near any American right back this side of Marvell Wynne (but then we would have stressed about the dreaded “Skill Gap”), but Cherundolo is getting neither younger nor faster. On the other hand, Cherundolo still brings quite a bit: even with a step or two missing, he’s defensively solid and, more impressively, the man still frees himself up for crosses pretty smartly. And Cherundolo wasn’t nearly the problem Tim Ream proved to be. All the same, I can’t shake this vision: it’s two years down the road and we’re in the World Cup finals watching one team after another run at our right. OK, yeah, I’m blanking on viable replacements, but the longer Jurgen Klinsmann waits, the less time any new guy has to get settled. Moreover, that’s the nature of a woobie (that’s a security blanket for those who either don’t have kids or didn’t see Mr. Mom): part of growing up is letting go. So long as he’s been healthy, ditching Cherundolo has always seemed like a bad idea. It’s time to let go of the woobie. And burn that damn flannel shirt while we’re at it.

2) Who’s Up for The Danny Williams Experiment?
Stuff this one in the Wild Hair File, but on those rare nights I lay awake thinking about the U.S. Men’s Team, it’s usually about trying to figure out who the hell we can transform (by training ideally, but I’ll try magic) into a true attacking midfielder. You know the usual candidates: if it’s not Landon Donovan playing centrally, there’s Freddy Adu, maybe Stuart Holden, and I still have that soft spot in my heart for Sacha Kljestan (yes, still). Fill in a blank of your own if you’re so inclined, but I’m willing, once Landon Donovan comes back from injury especially, to see how Danny Williams looks centrally. The inspiration for the thought could very well begin and end with Williams’ statement (received second hand) that central mid is his preferred position; the fact that Jurgen Klinsmann played him wide makes me think either he or the coach believes he’s got attacking upside. I’ll add this: having seen Williams play wide, I don’t think it suits him. Regardless, I’m highly interested in seeing us get someone better suited to coordinate our attack in a place where he can best influence it – e.g. the middle. And, to round out the thought, I like Kyle Beckerman at holding/defensive and like Clint Dempsey as a second forward….so, why not try Williams?

3) Let Us Fly Our Pop Culture Godhood
I mean absolutely no disrespect to any Army, either Sam’s or Timber, and I understand how hard it is to get a few thousand people saying/singing/chanting the same thing in unison. At the same time, it gets in the back of my mind during so many games that we, in these United States, live in the Pop Culture Capital of the Universe (a title we’ll hold till we meet the aliens or another nation passes us). Without denying the incredible cultural contributions produced/borrowed/improved on the world over, the fact remains that we market pop content for the entire world, not infrequently creating/defining entire genres of music in particular. And THE natural component of great chants is what? Pop music. I’m just saying we have this absolutely incredible body of music to inspire new chants, songs we could apply to players’ names, myriad situations, and hurl at the opposition (tastefully, of course), but it seems like I keep hearing the same songs again and again. (Wait: quick acknowledgment to the Timbers Army for using Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take It”; I don’t care if it’s borrowed because it’s new to me). Anyway, consider this one man’s call to mine our vast wealth of (OK, largely throw-away) culture to continually (or as much as is practicable) freshen the songs pouring down from the stands.

4) Understanding Mendoza
At some point during the New England v. Columbus broadcast, the commentating team got to talking about the central Ohio media’s relationship with Crew DP/forward Andres Mendoza. That they described it as rocky, or even love-hate, didn’t surprise me in the slightest. I bashed Mendoza way back when and in stronger terms (some variation of the phrase “Worst DP Ever” might have been used). The more I watch Mendoza, though, the more I feel like I, and Central Ohio pundits reportedly, reject Mendoza for failing to fit the mold for MLS players. Does Mendoza give up on leading passes with surprising indifference? Yep. Have I seen him throw away shots a forward earning DP money just has to bury? Yep. More recently, though – as in this past weekend – I saw him bury two damn fine goals; watch the highlights and just appreciate the decisiveness of the first finish and the skill of the second. As far as I’m concerned, the man has demonstrated he can do the job. The trick with him is he really does pick his spots more than most, expends effort according to some inner monologue to which only he (and possibly his teammates) is privy. As a league and a fan culture, MLS expects maximal effort from just about any player who shirts up. Having spent the season watching two players who follow those rules – Kenny Cooper and Jorge Perlaza – I can’t say I wouldn’t give Mendoza’s methods a try.

5) New England, and When Transition Ends
I have watched New England out of the corner of one eye this season. It’s an old habit on one level, but – and I could be wrong on this; feel free to correct New England (or any) fans – this looked like the first year that New England Revolution looked like they tried to go out and buy success, something formerly anathema to them. If there’s a measure available that would call New England’s 2011 a success, I’d be fascinated to see it. Even if it didn’t seem nuts to splash out for players like Didier Domi and Ousmane Dabo, or even Franco Coria, the former were undeniable flops and I have yet to see much out of the latter. It’s in defense, without question (cough! cough! (56 goals allowed) cough!) where things just kinda suck and it’s also where key covering players – think Matt Reis and Shalrie Joseph – aren’t getting any younger. I guess the weird part comes with the fact the Revs have bought/acquired/had players fall in their laps – guys that, over the past couple years, have included Rajko Lekic, Benny Feilhaber, Diego Fagundez, and even Milton Caraglio. The latter two I haven’t seen enough of to judge – though Caraglio looks bull-strong and Fagundez clever and zippy – but none of them address the ongoing horrorshow at the back. The best Revolution teams seemed to come together by accident – e.g. you pull Steve Ralston out of the Florida Diaspora, Taylor Twellman comes available just before you stopped sucking, and who knew Pat Noonan, Clint Dempsey, and Shalrie Joseph would be the players they were, never mind a fluke find like, say, Andy Dorman? Hints of the same serendipity show up here and there with the current team – think Benny Feilhaber, who seems to do useful things most time I’m watching and he sorta landed in the proverbial lap – but a semi-spastic spending spree seems closer to this year’s norm. This isn’t an argument to rely on luck – that’s just stupid – but all this opens the possibility that New England’s scouting system either doesn’t understand the problem or has no interest in buying the players to solve it. So maybe the question of how transition ends depends on who’s trying to end it.

All for this week. I think I’ve found a formula, people. Yeah, hair mostly intact. Hands aren’t shaking…yeah, feeling good! See you next week.

And did you know there’s a site that compiles those? Brilliant. I hope I made the cut…lord knows I try….(though not hard enough apparently, ’cause I can’t find the damn site.)

I had this great idea earlier in the year, a way to make posts that didn’t have to worry about being timely, posts that accepted I can’t watch every game, and, frankly, that don’t rely on me reading all that much. Because I don’t. Read that much, that is. At least not about soccer. God bless the video feed…

So, we’re back to five nifty ideas: no big wrap-ups and no video review (I lapsed; it was last week, I’m sorry, and I didn’t post it); no eight things parading as five things. It’s just five (5) things that most interested me about the last week. That’s all I have – well, that and a two-page limit – so let’s go.

1) Jurgen’s Erste, Grosste Sieg
(Translation by this site…don’t know if I trust that one, but it’s what I’ve got. Anyway, it’s meant to be, “Jurgen’s First, Big Win”)
It was a pretty goal by Mister Dempsey, sure, in that 1-0 win, but how much did you see to inspire real confidence? I guess the sharpest way to put it goes something like this: it’s great to see the U.S. Men take that crucial first step (e.g. to win), but I thought taking the next step was the idea. As much as I understand about the need to give time to the new-coach-kid Jurgen Klinsmann, um, this was Honduras. At home. Did I hate it all? No. I thought Brek Shea got around nicely, did an OK thing or two; I was told after the fact that our latest borrowed German, Danny Williams, did all right, but I have to confess to not seeing it during the game – and I tried, I mean really tried. After that, Dempsey had the nice goal and, sick as I am of the two d-mid set, I can think of worse things than a Kyle Beckerman/Maurice Edu midfield (can think of better too). No, it was the repeat fails on defense, seeing the Honduran #8, in particular, get what seemed like three straight, relatively clean cracks on goal fairly close together in the second half. that’s the stuff that keeps me up at night. I’m loathe to look to gods for support during sporting events (seems like they’ve got better things and all) but, again, this was Honduras. We have compiled, so far, three losses and a win over Honduras. Allowing for the small sample, doesn’t that smack of a microcosmic equation for how we generally do on the world stage?

2) The Story of the Year – and It Ain’t New York Suckin’ Eggs
OK, being tight on time means I’m stiffing people for links this week, but I’m sure anyone this deep in the fever swamps of soccer-site fandom has read an “OMG” piece on how saucily this year’s edition of Red Bull New York flirts with biggest all-time flop status (OK, found Michael Lewis’ comprehensive, possibly premature takedown). As much as I get this – there’s the budget to consider, for starters – I’m far, far more surprised by another flame-out: Real Salt Lake’s out-of-the-blue, post-winning streak, late collapse. The emblematic moment for me came with Kyle Beckerman’s stunningly stupid head-butt on the Chicago Fire’s Daniel Paladini, not to mention his subsequent suspension for the rest of the 2011 regular. Then again, consider the way even the least of MLS’s clubs seemingly took turns at kicking RSL square in the ass. Consider again that their last respectable loss came against LA: that came in between straight-up whuppin’s against DC United, the Fire and – oh god, the bucket; the bucket! – the Vancouver Whitecaps? Small wonder Beckerman lost it. This team came damned close to carrying the standard for MLS on the World Stage; they were the league little darlin’s on this site and many others, even if the folks in Colorado would never say “yay!” (No offense taken.) So, they secured their spot in the post-season and, yeah, the case could be made that they’ll rise again…in just two games. The crucial difference between RSL and New York comes down to this: New York has never really been good; sucky is how they roll. RSL, on the other hand, has danced on top of the lesser dairy since 2008. Times could be a-changin’. (And you’re welcome for the Carey Talley Fan Club bump, RSL; things should get better and soon.)

But maybe there’s something deeper going on…

3) West v. East, at Season’s End
As much as there’s no denying the difference points and, quite probably, the difference in the head-to-head win-loss-tie numbers all the season long, I’m starting to wonder about just how well the Western Conference’s advantage over the Eastern will hold heading into the post-season. If nothing else, the MLS Rules Gods did the East a solid with this year’s playoff rules, what with the top-three team thing. Even assuming the Western conference sweeps up all the wild card spots, there’s the war of attrition angle (one extra game) to consider. Still, the East will get one team as deep as the conference finals courtesy of the 2 v. 3 matchup; odds also seem to favor the top Eastern seed getting one over on any team that limps over from the West. Also, this isn’t so much about recent results, either – see, New York shocking the LA Galaxy or even the Philly Union ambushing the Seattle Sounders (yes!). It’s about RSL’s slide, and that’s along with Colorado not playing so hot (LLLTW in their last five; at least the trends are all right), or even FC Dallas slump into the land of the fatigued (WLLLL in their last five; much like RSL). Random and blaster-clumsy as the East has seemed all year, has the West’s early sprint sucked the piss and vinegar out of their legs? Take away LA and Seattle and the West looks a little woozy.

4) Latest Dark Horse Sighting
I’m back on the Philly Union bandwagon. Signs of life from Sebastian Le Toux speak well to their chances.

5) The Have-Nots I’d Least Like to Meet in a Dark Alley
Any team should be rapt to face New England; not even Shalrie Joseph wants to play there anymore. I’d take some of the West’s stumblers, teams like RSL, Dallas, and even Vancouver (and, fortunately, Portland gets their shot at RSL with their closer; just hope the Utahans don’t wake by then). Being a firm believer in DC’s one-game-on, one-game-off habit (which hasn’t held, and on the bad side), I’m not so worried about them either. As a Portland fan, I’m happy to see my club steering clear of the San Jose Earthquakes, Toronto FC, and the Chicago Fire – y’know, all the clubs that have been fodder for guffaws all year long? Call those the three I’d least like to face while trying to book a dance for the post-season. (Side note: I’d make a case for Houston, but Portland has them Friday, so I’m praying that Road JuJu eats the Orange alive.) Maybe it’s true that there’s nothing scarier than a team of players with nothing to lose. Sing it, Janice….

Good luck to the U.S. Men tomorrow night: I know I’ll be tuned in and looking for inspiration.

So. Portland did the proverbial business tonight. DC United did its part by choking in Columbus (agh! What happened to their pattern! What else will unravel?!) while Red Bull New York kept it interesting by drawing in Toronto. Not the ideal results by any means – who wouldn’t have loved all the relevant teams losing? – but the combined sum amounts to Portland still walking in the land of the living, where, yea, the grass is greener. And there’s a great, big fence to keep out the peasants.

OK, yes, technically, Portland remains on the wrong side of that fence. But we’re hold the rail and checking to make sure no one’s around to see us hop it! Back to reality…

Cooper’s goal was fine, sure, but it didn’t feel nearly as important as a few other things: Diego Chara playing a man-of-the-match-caliber game, even if RootSports’ commentators hiccuped over his name in their summation; the defense more or less leaving Vancouver’s attack begging for scraps…albeit with an allowance for a pair of ¾ chances by Davide Chiumiento. All in all, though, Portland played a solid game tonight and deserved at least two of the three points they got. They got all three, of course, and that’s fine out my way.

Vancouver did have their moments tonight – Eric Hassli chucked in a pair of dizzying flicks; Shea Salinas made Portland’s left sweat a couple times; and Chiumiento shot a pair on the wrong side of Portland’s net…wait, I think that’s about it – but the whole equation of “who, if you’d rather go on the road when you need a win, would you play?” played out nicely tonight.

To return to that Cooper goal, there’s something to say about that, specifically what made it possible. Now, if you’ve watched the Timbers’ all season, you’ve seen Cooper set up wide and generally left (it’s possible I’m botching the side; wide is the thing). Typically, he gets the ball out there and tries to get around them with those big, lumbering strides, or maybe a couple stutter-steps, or flops to see if he can’t draw the foul: take your pick, it rarely pans out. Today, though, Cooper had yards of space, enough to recover from a mediocre trap, certainly. Anyway, he winds up and, there it goes, the goal Cooper’s been searching for all year.

The question is, did it mean anything? True, Cooper has been scoring lately. While half these goals live under that same porch as that girl you won’t take home to mother, they all dug a notch into the proverbial bedpost, which could very well have led to tonight’s (K.C.) Masterpiece. Then you think about the root of the problem: Cooper’s penchant for running wide, when he might want to, on occasion, maybe if it occurs to him, say, run in the forward channel like a proper “big man.” In other words, setting up Cooper for the perfect goal took a set of circumstances we have not yet witnessed this season. Sure, one could chalk this up to the ol’ cliché about “teammates starting to understand one another,” but I’m guessing it was just a dynamite pass by Chara. So….why count on that happening again?

Don’t get me wrong: I’m happy with tonight’s win and, genuinely, thrilled with Cooper’s goal. I think what disturbs me is the fact that Portland’s best moments besides came from the usual scenario: set pieces. Overall, I’d credit tonight’s win more to Chara’s omnipresence – I mean, where didn’t that guy pop up tonight? – than I would to Kenny Cooper’s goal – though that certainly, um, defined the game in that it, um, won it for the Timbers. In a particularly familiar trend, however, we showed the old ability to push near the goal…only to pick up a case of the swoons when it came to deliver the decisive pass.

This isn’t so much complaining as it’s worrying about our ability to close out the season….this was Vancouver after all….and no offense to you and what a lovely stadium you have! But this was the first kid sent home without a trophy, the team that, four exceptions notwithstanding, has sent the rest of MLS home somewhere between satisfied or happy for the duration of 2011. Lose this one and, propriety aside, questions must be asked.

Portland did some things very well tonight: consider that Chara’s assist came from a nicely-aware cross-field pass; think how little you actually missed the absence of Jack Jewsbury and Kalif Alhassan; and, really, ignore the paucity of chances Portland created for a second. Bask, instead, in the spells of conscious possession, when Portland actually played the ball backwards for the sheer thrill of keeping the ball. Revel in the idea that, when Portland had to win a game on the road, they did.

Finally, consider that Red Bull New York has to play the Los Angeles Galaxy on Tuesday, which means that, odds are, they’ll stand pat at 40. That means when New York takes the field on October 15 – ooh, on the road to Sporting KC – they could find themselves down three to Portland, who will have just played a Houston Dynamo club that struggles to navigate the road outside Robertson Stadium. Yeah, DC might have won at Vancouver a couple days prior, but they’ll only have 41 points then (forza, and thanks, Columbus!), which should take the pressure off Portland, but, with them still stalled at 40, will keep the pressure on New York…

…see, it’s easy so long as you just stay positive! The pixies will make it come out all right…you’ll see!

Anyway, good win tonight and not too ugly. The attempts at possession were encouraging, but the big win and the goal, no matter how it came, felt pretty nice – especially against the back-drop of a largely flustered Vancouver attack.

…and I did plan on posting the past week’s stuff tonight, but the queue of stale newsletters in my inbox made for such profoundly uninspiring reading that I took a sharper interest in my belly button and lost track of time. But, I’ve reloaded by watching the Week in Review (for the first time in months; turns out I miss the portentous commentary), and am now focused like a laser – no make that a lazer because the letter “Z” is from the future – and this post will look to the future! The cool kind of future, like we had in the 70s…

So, to start with a slight tweak on an idea I like: rather than wrap it all up in one day, I’ll post predictions on this week’s of games – the schedule for which starts here and ends here – and come back to wrap up on Sunday. Consider this my marker on that Sunday post. Oh, and despite my love for the event, there’s no way I’m going to try to call the CONCACAF games, not after what happened September 20 & 21..I mean, Toronto winning one of those things? Let’s just say that those hooves slapping the ground in the distance can’t be a good thing…

Right. Week 29, just five to go and the playoff picture already coming into focus…if only at the top and the very, very bottom…let’s pause here to pass on a very special congratulations to the Vancouver Whitecaps, who became the first kid to not get a trophy. What I see happening this week and weekend comes below, in no more than one sentence per game…with allowances for separation by semicolon. Feel free to chime in with accusations of madness/incompetence/and making poor use of my illusion….whatever that really means.

Sporting KC v. Columbus Crew
Respectably brave effort against LA(‘s scrubs) aside, I don’t see the Crew beating anyone; KC win.
Real Salt Lake v. Chicago Fire
Anything but RSL winning will prompt another offer to give away a free, “gently-used” jersey
Philadelphia Union v. DC United
There’s a pattern, you see, so DC will lose this one. They can’t help themselves…
Houston Dynamo v. Chicago Fire
Houston play tough enough at home for Chicago dragging ass across the road to prove fatal.
Toronto FC v. Red Bull New York
Toronto figuring things out mixed with NY’s potentially toxic locker room spells trouble; draw or NY loss
New England Revolution v. Seattle Sounders
After what Portland did to the Revs, I see a draw as a worst-case…still a Seattle win seems more likely.
Colorado Rapids v. FC Dallas
Dallas knows no bogey team like Colorado; with both teams limping, I see the Rapids limp faster.
LA Galaxy v. Real Salt Lake
LA’s creepy consistency – something about it’s not right, I tells ya – points to LA winning, a draw at best.
San Jose Earthquakes v. Sporting KC
The “Buck” stops ‘em in San Jose and Sporting stumbles; a draw or loss to the East’s hottest side.
Columbus Crew v. DC United
Real heads-tails vibe; there’s DC’s habit of alternating wins, sure, but I’m feeling a draw
Vancouver Whitecaps v. Portland Timbers
If you had a must-win and had to play any team in MLS, who would you choose? Exactly. Go Timbers!
Chivas USA v. Philadelphia Union
Another that feels anything but obvious…still, call it a Chivas win and a moment of panic for Philly.

Holy shit. That’s a busy week…we’ll see what happens Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and, wait…yes, Sunday. Then we’ll kick it around Sunday.

The first question is the obvious one: was Kalif Alhassan’s ejection excessive? In light of the penalty being given, yep. That it came immediately (OK, maybe three minutes) after a ball-clenching scrum in Red Bull’s penalty area where god and man (in the form of, I think, Tim Ream) caused Portland’s shot to carom off the crossbar arguably only deepens the impression. So, yes, the sense of being screwed in all the wrong places lingers…

Still, it’s fair to say the Portland Timbers gave us only the aforementioned scrum plus the 10 glorious opening minutes – minutes in which we played a (paraphrased) iteration of John Spencer’s “the best soccer I’ve seen this year, not just from this team, but in MLS” – and, in a lot of ways, not much else. Somewhere between the 10th and 20th minute, Red Bull New York gradually grabbed the game by the scruff and, before you knew it, Dane Richards scored this low-percentage goal that felt all at once weird and smart and Portland’s earlier, semi-impressive presence near New York’s goal ebbed by steps away from said goal until it wasn’t really near enough to matter. And, for what it’s worth, I said from the start (you’ll have to confirm with my wife) that I said Dane Richards would bite us on the ass….and he did. Again…sigh.

Some other things happened to be sure. Jack Jewsbury quite probably missing the game against the Vancouver Whitecaps doesn’t feel much like a good thing; I’ll confirm that’s the case in the comments field at some point. More maddening still was Kenny Cooper’s ongoing clumsiness, sloppiness, and general incompetence. A key moment for me came when, around the late 30s of the first half, Eric Alexander struggled mightily to recover something from nothing; he dishes the ball off in Cooper’s general, wide-open direction, not more than ten yards from goal…only to have the big man fail to trap and let the ball trickle the opposite way of useful. Now, I can credit Cooper for a helluva shot during the earlier mentioned scrum – honestly, it had an “all-is-forgiven” sort of potential – but he has racked up a large enough debit in my book that, yes, I wouldn’t blink to see him traded.

Does it feel over yet? I mean Portland’s season. The short answer would be no. I mean, sure DC United won tonight, and handily, over Real Salt Lake even, and we’re now behind New York and that goal differential, and gods know who else besides. All the same the pendulum will swing for DC next week (on a related note, will we get DC on their good week or bad when we finally play them), there are four games to play yet and our schedule isn’t the toughest, in spite of playing most of it on the road. And I think fatigue bit us hard as anything tonight. So, no, I don’t count the season as being over yet.

The game was the game. We didn’t get the result, but I’m not sure what I expected. As noted toward the end of Wednesday’s post, I don’t think the Timbers possess Championship-level players. That’s not really surprising – I mean, is it? – so I’m already thinking next year. And, with that in mind, I’m going to close this post with…some thoughts.

The Eric Alexander Experiment
Tonight marks the first time (I think) that Portland coach John Spencer gave Eric Alexander the nod over Sal Zizzo. Whatever his motivation – light a spark under Zizzo? See what Alexander can bring? – he gave the experiment only 45 minutes. That tells me either, 1) he didn’t like what he saw, or, 2) it really was just about making Zizzo sweat. As one who applauded the arrival of Alexander, count me an interested party where this experiment is concerned. So…what’d I think? I thought Alexander defends a little better, while Zizzo attacks a little better. Also in Alexander’s favor? That little bit more tenacity, that little bit more “my ball, my ball, my ball!” mentality that I don’t think Zizzo has now, and may never have. What does all that mean? Put it this way: Zizzo drove me batty against the Philly Union where he broke WELL past the other side, only to offer either a crappy, blind cross or a shot that would make a teenage JV kid blush (Trust me: I know from teenage JV kids). Going the other way, scrappy though Alexander may be, Zizzo brings that little bit more O.

That’s all to say, I side with Spencer’s approach tonight and hope he carries it forward: the Timbers are in a place where few things trump not giving up goals. I rate Alexander better on that side and think he brings enough on the offensive side to pencil out. From there, send Zizzo in late and see what he can do.

If only we could try the Bright Dike v. Cooper experiment….

Would Dax Trump Diego
OK, this has been eating me since Diego Chara came on board: did Portland give away more when they shipped Dax McCarty than they gained through the acquisition of Diego Chara? And let the record show that my pleasure that this decision doesn’t turn on the money each player makes (McCarty: $175K guaranteed; Chara: $143,758 guaranteed).

For what it’s worth, I think Chara improved with the season: he’s a pain-in-the-ass kind of player that runs all day and makes himself available. I’m confident that someone, somewhere tracks his passing numbers and I imagine they’re high enough – say the low 70% range at worst. All the same, I have to wonder what might have been every time I saw McCarty play. Given time and space, he can play the deadly ball – then again, I have at least one instance of Chara doing the same fresh in my mind – but McCarty’s main role is straight-up churn, the simple act of distributing to the open player to see what the next guy can do with it. This facilitates possession, my obsession, is possession. Possession: precisely what, to my mind, the Timbers struggle with most. One open question is whether the Timbers coaching staff would allow McCarty to play that game…and I’m not remotely confident on the answer.

Still…I wish I had the chance to find out.

Chabala, Palmer and The Run
The local paper ran a nice gush-piece on Lovel Palmer and Mike Chabala and their transition to Portland. While most of it as jock drivel – e.g. “these guys want to win games” (as if this is novel in any professional player) – one passage stood up tall, as if it had a battery on its shoulder begging to be knocked off.

“Before Chabala and Palmer arrived, the Timbers allowed 32 goals in 19 games and posted a goals allowed average of 1.68 a game. Since the two started together against Toronto July 30, the Timbers have allowed 10 goals in 10 games for a goals allowed average of one a game.”

The proof in that batch of pudding comes with measuring the quality of the opposition during that spell (result in parentheses). So here goes:

Toronto (T), LA (W), San Jose (T), Houston (L), Sporting KC (L), Vancouver (W), Chivas (W), Philadelphia (T), New England (W), San Jose (again, T), New York (L).

Interesting, I suppose, though it’s educational to see who wins and losses came against – or, in sharper terms, take away LA and what do you have? – but fewer goals scored matters. Another way to slice it would look at the overall record. Let’s see, the above shows 4-3-4, while the season to that point shows 6-9-3. Now, even if I botched the math (think I’m one off in there somewhere and, with the point made, I don’t care enough to fix it), the record clearly improved.

Now, I do remember the talk about Jeremy Hall and Rodney Wallace as good-to-great liabilities as outside backs. Trouble is, I remember similar chatter surrounding Chabala, especially. All the same, numbers are numbers. It’s entirely possible we done good.

Neat. And all for now.

Well, that sucked. And yet the result doesn’t hurt nearly as bad as the manner of it, which is to say the Timbers committed all the old sins. My seat, situated as it is toward one corner on the end of the field, don’t show a lot of things well. It does, however, show one thing very well: when Portland pinches themselves too narrow in the attack. On, the return of the not-least dreaded “funnel attack”! They did this tonight in the 1-1 draw against San Jose, a few exceptions aside. And these were too few to be all that relevant.

Tonight’s biggest sin – the one that topped gluttony, avarice, greed (wait…aren’t those last two essentially the same?) – was a recent addition to the Portland Timbers’ gallery of horrors: the Curse of Ever-Permanent, Ever-False Urgency. Any time any Portland player had the ball, he hoofed it upfield (yes, I exaggerate; please make allowances for frustration). And blindly often as not. Stupid, fucking forward movement on the ball for the sake of stupid fucking forward movement on the ball: just make the damn hounds run and hope they catch it before the other dogs. Simple possession went out the window and the play was disastrously predictable as a result: always look for forward movement on the ball and, yea, you shall be rewarded.

I would be very surprised if, in the final analysis, San Jose didn’t possess the ball at least at a 2:3 ratio. It seemed every time Portland had the ball they coughed it up right around midfield. I have seen San Jose often enough to know this is not their normal. What resulted from there was a siege on Portland’s end of the field, a seemingly endless parade of crosses, balls squirting out for long-range blasts from the top of the area, or, worse balls bouncing around IN the area leading to desperate, scrambled clearances.

Naturally, I see interpret this cycle of rushing possession and, thereby, coughing it up as not playing loose, if on one level. But that’s too easy. For all the talk of old sins, I’ve only noticed this one lately, which leaves open the question of whether it’s original.

As noted earlier, I refused to fall into the “must-win” trap. (OK, yes, a “must-win” comes into play when you actually have to win – e.g. if you don’t you’re out of the playoffs. Exception noted…but back to the script.) Had Portland played well – e.g. with the aggression and confidence they showed against a semi-supine New England Revolution – I could have taken a goal-a-piece draw with a little more equanimity. Instead, I’m seeing a choked-up team about to hit the road for the most the remainder of 2011 and I’m much, much less optimistic about the outcome. Again, it’s more the manner of the draw than the draw itself. So, yeah, maybe it does go back to that belief, whether true or not, about playing loose. And Portland, whatever it’s doing, isn’t playing loose.

In closing, I’d like to study two ends of the field, to examine what is working and what is not. Eric Brunner, to express an opinion, played a man-of-the-match game tonight: he stepped up boldly and well whenever needed. On the other end, Kenny Cooper, in spite of scoring Portland’s one goal, looked lost, blind, and clumsy out there. I’m very, very done with Cooper and can list at least a half dozen strikers I’d trade him for….and the names shuffling around the paddock in my head are not big ones. Portland has no presence up top – none – and I struggle more and more to understand why John Spencer starts Cooper, never mind plays him deep, and futilely, into the second half.

Whatever happened tonight, the game in New York just got a little bigger. I inserted “interlude” into the title because the week that started last Friday doesn’t really end until this Saturday. Bottom line, if we get the results, we may yet make the playoffs – and that’s not matter how maddeningly dire we might play on any given night.

But is this team ready for MLS Cup? Oh hell, no. Do they still give me a warm bubbly feeling inside when I see them do well? Absolutely. Good luck at Red Bull Arena on Saturday, guys. And remember, there IS a tomorrow. Apollo Creed is our mascot now…..or, if he isn’t, he should be. Dammit.