MLS1/MLS2 "Simulated Relegation," Version #1: The "Secret" MLS Files
Posted on May 23, 2011 9:30 pm
Based on concepts gleaned from MLS Rumorville a few years ago (and not “Secret MLS Files”), Derek presents his favorite interpretation/version of “Simulated Relegation.”
Not to be mistaken for reality, as the “source” of this concept is unnamed–it is still a fun exercise in “what about this idea” postulation for those of us who like that kind of thing.
Weds morning, the guys break down the announced Gold Cup Roster.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw-abE81Xcg"]YouTube – MLS1/MLS2 “Simulated Relegation,” Version #1: The “Secret” MLS Files[/ame]
I gotta say that plan is convoluted as hell. But somehow it makes a lot of sense. It has a lot of the good parts of Pro/Rel and minimal financial downside. Still need to wrap my brain around it.
I actually like it, but I would 12 and 12, so that everyone plays 34 games.
What happens if the Rochester Rhinos or some other 2nd division team wins the US Open Cup? Do they get a spot in the MLS playoffs?
No, I would think. The playoff spot would go to the MLS team that advanced the farthest in the tournament.
But Derek has done it. He has married the concerns of Conrad and Loney in one proposal.
Seemingly, he has done so without the opium my earlier William Blake reference suggests. Either that or he is having a particularly good time at the moment.
The scenario is fine, but I’m not sure where the “pleasure and pain” from Euro style pro/rel is.
If MLS2 teams can make the playoffs, and they get to play MLS1 teams during the season, what’s the drive for making it into MLS1 and the turmoil of going down?
The reason pro/rel in the EPL is so intense is 1) the emotional release and a crapload of TV money heading your way if you go up, and 2) the pressure of trying to stay up in the league to keep that financial windfall.
I don’t sense either of those in your scenario, even though the structure of it is logical and sound.
I think the intensity comes from the fact that only 1 MLS2 team can make the playoffs, while in MLS1 7 teams make the playoffs.
You also have the P/R game MLS1 13th v MLS2 2nd… To me, that builds excitement too.
The fact of the matter is, you have a lot better chance to make the playoffs if you’re an MLS1 team–going down to MLS2 forces you to be the MLS2 champ in order to make the playoffs (which won’t be easy). Essentially MLS1 teams have almost a 50% chance of making the playoffs, while MLS2 teams have a 10% chance… I think, where our league is at now, that might be an acceptable balance.
It was fun to put it out there….
Do you take me for Samuel Coleridge, sir? I’m afraid those years are long behind me, Mateofelipe.
In the end this is not pro/rel, and it will certainly confuse the ‘joe six pack’ sports fan who might go to an MLS game with some friends but doesn’t know much about soccer other than the name of his local MLS club and a history of watching some WC games. Hell, it is even so confusing that visual aids were needed to describe it to us. So from an MLS owners stand point, I can see how this could hurt. Not only does it bring almost no new value to the league, it makes the league more difficult to understand to modest fans, and the most hard-core fans who want a total switch to euro style football will still not be happy.
In the end all this does is create a more complicated system to the playoffs. A system that as of now already has a majority of clubs making the playoffs, so I don’t know why owners would want to make the switch.
If we want to adjust the playoffs to appease fans who like pro/rel, MLS should get out of the USOC and allow the winner of the USOC (sorry canada) to play the last place wildcard team for a shot to be in the playoffs. That way MLS can finally say that their system isn’t closed off to the lower divisions. They would just make the chance of winning MLS cup very small, and never allow the club to play in MLS for the regular season or get a slice of the SUM pie…but in reality they would leave the door open, and hopefully appease fans who complain about the closed franchise system. Also if MLS is smart about it, they could market this team as the ‘Cinderella club’ and maybe get some good PR out of it each year.
I didn’t think it was that confusing
It’s a muted version of it. The odds of the playoffs are way better if you are in MLS 1. The TV exposure would be much greater in USL1. I don’t suspect the tv revenues formula could be too weighted against MLS2, or you won’t get enough support for the idea among MLS owners.
Sorry Dwreck… I liked you better when you were doing fake interviews with Bob Bradley and writing songs about Landon Donovan.
Hey, he shouldn’t get full credit for being the dawg, that character has been played by two people!!! So in fact, you may not like him at all!!!
…but I’m sure Henry and Marquez would have signed with NYRB after they were relegated to MLS2 after the 2009 disaster… yup, they would have signed with the league no questions asked.
No one said this system had to start in 2009…. Wait. But seriously… I don’t remember hearing that this system needed to start SOON–but are you saying the league will never be in a spot where they can even consider “simulated” pro/rel?
Like the idea… think it is the best way to go with as many teams as twenty four. The only thing I would change is the auto relegation of bottom member of League One; the last team could just be put into a play-off with the top teams of league two as well. Think it also works on a media and promotion level as ESPN or other networks would promote the games of League One more but if soccer became ever more relevant or someone wanted to broadcast American soccer on their sports Chanel they would also have league two teams that had a tie-in to the first league making their games of some import and having a direct connection to the first league. Perfect!
Buddy
‘Hey are you going to a Fire game summer?’
Me
‘Yea I’ll go to several, you wanna go?’
Passer-by: Can I go with you?
Buddy
yea i was thinking about it
Me
Cool, but they are in MLS2 now
Buddy
the Fire aren’t in MLS anymore?
Passer-by: Jeezus Buddy, what kind of fan are you that you haven’t read about all the new changes in MLS?
Me
Well, they are but they are in lower level of MLS
Buddy
what?
Passer-by: What do you mean “what”? MLS2–sheesh. Everyone knows about it. Remember how bad we were last year? When we finished in last? Well, we were sent down to MLS2. It means we have to win the league to make the playoffs.
Me
Yea, well they are in the same league but it is just really hard to make the playoffs. You gotta win this lower level league to get 1 playoff spot. Its kinda like what they do in europe…but not really
Buddy
why do they make it harder to make the playoffs? that sucks for those teams.
Passer-by: Good Lord Buddy, you need a glass with all that whine?….Why do you hang out with this guy 4door?
Me
drama?
Buddy
What?
passer-by: Really? Surely not.
Me
I guess I don’t know.
passer-by: yeah, ditch the guy– its time for some cool friends who are open to simulated promotion and relegation…
the last poster has it dead on, the whole scheme is idiotic.If MLS is actually considering this Garber should be fired on the spot.If its just the bloggers sick fantasy then he should be scorned and thrown to the wolves as an idiot who likely doesn’t have enough sense to tie his shoes.. seriously dude.You’re a disgrace to Fire fans everywhere, please change teams.
Wow, that was harsh…Seriously dude.
Pretty horrible idea, but the worst part is adding the US Open Cup winner just to make it more convoluted. Is that the “screw you Canada” clause?
retarded at best
if they are really interested in this they should simply mandate a P&R program. the english have it right. the MLS won’t make it so because they are afraid of pissing off any current MLS team that might be sent down. and the odds of getting a team promoted that has the finances to compete and travel and so on and so forth might also be an issue. i have no idea what the next league/level below the MLS is but i’d start there and/or simply cull together 10 (or so) of the richest most successful lower division teams and see if there is any interest in forming MLS2.
that plan that we just heard Derek mutter through is simply asinine.
bottom line – American fans and owners are too greedy and selfish to even think about a real P&R system.
I like it – its in line with what I’ve suggested myself before.
Pro/Rel doesn’t have to result in financial penalty to work; “status” and access to cup competitions is enough of a hook.
Wow, it’s like ‘You Be The Don’, except I can actually hear the mouth-breathers, as opposed to only reading them. However, just like ‘You Be The Don’, I skipped your entire podcast entirely.
You know, I, too, long for the day when the Philadelphia Union, a team that many people shed a lot of blood, sweat, and tears to convince MLS to give to our beloved city, are no longer in existence because the fanbase stopped caring after they turned into a minor league team and revenues shot way down to the point where they decided that it no longer made sense for them to play in a soccer specific stadium built for their existence, and the only reason this was done was to appease 15-20 loudmouth internet geeks who get their rocks off wishing for an awful fate for teams they don’t consider worthy, all for the sake of “doing it like the rest of the world does it.”
The day that promotion and relegation is instituted in ANY form in MLS is the day that I stop watching it. I don’t want to see my team have one bad season and then I have MY heart broken because there’s a very good chance that they’ll never come back. I’d rather see my team finish dead last for 20 straight years because I least I know that next year, my team might have that chance to win the MLS Cup in the top division. I might get some ulcers from frustration, but I will never have my heart broken
I see you lifted one of my photos. Thanks!
Crap, Andy–my fault. I’ve really tried not to lift Mead material… My apologies. Not sure how this one slipped by editing eyes…
As to the rest of the content, this doesn’t actually address any problems with the current setup. It only adds unnecessary complications and a whole raft of marketing issues. Far more than a “feel-good” factor for the 0.1% of potential MLS fans who are hung up on the fact that MLS doesn’t have “pro/rel” – and frankly will just move on to some other excuse if it ever does (it won’t).
By “pissing off” I assume you mean “driving out of business”.
England also has a monarchy, should we institute one of those, too?
Your whole post sums up everything perfectly. Bravo.
The fact is that the US is not England. It’s not Italy. Hell, it’s not even Germany. We have our own identity and our own traditions – especially when it comes to sports.
1. Sadly to all of those that long for pro/rel, that concept is not part of OUR sporting culture. We don’t do it in football, hockey, baseball, basketball, hockey, lacrosse, or anywhere else. Why the hell would we do it in soccer? The Europeans use pro/rel in their other sports (except KHL*) because that is part of their sporting culture.
2. We have more land mass and a widespread population, unlike most European countries. England has two mega cities (London & Manchester) and a couple more decent sized (Liverpool, etc). They are all closer to each other than New York is to Chicago or Chicago is to LA, etc. If one London team goes down, there are enough people already supporting the one coming up to not make a difference; the five top clubs basically will not be relegating ever again at this point. If American sports worked that way, markets with both minor and major league teams in the same sport would see competing numbers of fans, but they do not. Consider also that NY, Chicago, and LA pretty much have to be represented in the league for it to survive (TV contract). If the Galaxy & Chivas both relegated and were replaced by Des Moines and Boise, how would that affect the TV contract? The TV audience?
3. The proper thing MLS should be focused on is creating two full conferences, each with their own table. Conference members would play two games against each other and one against each club in the opposing conference. 4-8 team per conference make the conference playoffs and then the winners of the conferences play for the MLS Cup and represent MLS in the Champions League (along with Open Cup, Supporter’s Shield, and Canadian team). Teams would not switch conferences in the post season like they do now. Basically, just like every other damn league in the US.
*However, as the KHL demonstrates, they are starting to lean towards our closed league structures more and more. Perhaps it is because it allows the owners to protect their investments, the common argument against pro/rel in the US. You think the big soccer clubs that have talked about a Pan-Europe league (ManU, Arsenal, AC Milan, Juventus, etc) would implement pro/rel? Hell no, they want a closed league based on the American structure – just like the KHL. It is all about money.
Just read this article, which puts relegation woes into perspective. A lot of teams never fully recover.
Wow, more Pro/Rel idiocy. Newsflash, playoffs and getting rid of Pro/Rel is something the rest of the world is starting to look into. Why some wannabe Brit dweebs on this side of the Ocean actually want to copy some archaic relic of amateurism is beyond me. BTW, Forze la Juve the Union supporter knocked it out of the park with his post…
Who is the fire fan??
It’s actually an extremely robust system compared to the American model.
I have to laugh at the anti-pro/rel people who think that only 1% of MLS fans want pro/rel. Really? If we were that small in number, do you really think MLS would even be considering the idea? Heck, there’s probably 1% of MLS fans who want the old shoot-out back, but you don’t hear Don discussing bringing that back, do you?
I have to laugh at anyone who thinks MLS is actually considering the idea. Here’s a fun fact: “vague statements to the media” do not equal “serious consideration”.
1. It is not REAL promotion and relegation “idiocy”.
2. It maintains the beloved playoffs. Wipe those tears.
3. Anyone who knows me knows that I am no Brit wanna-be. Ha!
4. This was a rumored concept (yes, I got creative with it)–but don’t kill the messenger).
5. I am not a Chicago Fire fan–that’s my poor co-host Brett–and he’s no mouth-breather.
6. The day European Leagues abandon P&R for playoffs, pigs will fly and speak French.
7. Forza hit a foul ball, he did not “hit it out of the park.” I know my baseball analogies.
I also asked not to be kicked in the balzac, but I see some just can’t help themselves. Thanks gawd I’m wearing protection…
You knew damn well you were going to get kicked in the ripe ones with this post–so quit acting surprised!
I have been totally upfront that this whole thing was based on general statements, rumorville, and old ideas and thus could be totally bunk.
Loads of mls fans have talked this subject to death. A concept, regardless of originality, will quickly be attacked.
Whether some version of pro/rel happens is very questionable. But given the size of our country it’s hard to say that if u are division 2 that u ate stuck there for life. It may not happen 5 years from now but to write pro / rel away for ever is just as foolish to say it’ll happen tomorrow
I think this system presents more problems than it solves. While it would add drama for teams near the bottom of MLS1 and top of MLS2, I am not sure the playoff spot allocation would accurately reflect the disparity between the two levels. On one hand, MLS1 is supposed to be the best 14 teams, yet a team from outside MLS1 gets one of 8 spots in the playoffs. On the other hand, 14 of 32 games for each MLS2 team are against MLS1 opponents, so their schedules are not necessarily that much easier.
I don’t see any reason to adopt something like this, as interesting as it might be. As for letting the US Open Cup winner into the playoffs, I would prefer to keep the two competitions separate. There would be a lot of complaints if the UOC champ won the MLS Cup, especially if they would not have made the playoffs without winning the UOC.
Whoever invented this system had some good ideas, but it presents too much imbalance. It is easier to make the format fair if it is kept simple.
Yer exactly the kind of fan I was talking about. You’re way, or no way at all. Sad.
Sure, let’s start it in 2007, when LA was a basement team. Good luck getting a certain signing to come to town.
The problem won’t go away in the future either… It’s hard enough to get top players to sign with MLS. Right now a few smart signings can turn a basement dweller into a contender. Why would you take that away just so you can feel all european?
And yes, I’m saying that pro-rel will never happen… not even in “simulated” form.
Great, thoughtful response. Thank you. I agree, there are problems with this whole scenario with the UOC situation–but I wonder at the time if MLS was somehow being pressured to think more “multi-divisional”–with the expectation that the chances were small that anyone but a MLS team would win the Open Cup if they added more value to it. Hard to say now.
…and so basically you have a system that keeps teams in the same league yet punishes them for their performance THIS season based on results from PAST seasons… If we’re going to have that system may I have the perfect trophy to give to the winner.
I have no interest in “feeling” European. That was not even mentioned in the framework of this discussion/presentation. I never once said the goal was to be more like Europe–in fact, even a system like this would be very much an American invention and addition to the game.
I wouldn’t say become more European. But adjust more to the international system to help attract more players and give an elite level to the league. I can’t truly understand because I was raised with that kind of system and I love giving lower teams something to fight for. Sometimes elimination sunday in Premier is the most exciting two hours of the year.
The problem then, is there enough of a grassroots following to make sure teams that descend retain a following.
I’d also change the schedule to avoid some of the messes like the one the Gold cup will make: http://deportesus.terra.com/sports/g…+Gold+Cup.html
Just to prove I paid closer attention than most of your critics here, I’ll point out that your schedule (where MLS1 teams each play MLS2 teams once, and vice-versa) only works out mathematically if the two divisions are the same size.
Also, sorry. Players would come down if you offer the money, even to a relegated team if the money is there, which clearly it was with a ‘certain signing’. And you know their cocky egos will convince them they alone could lift the team back into MLS.
well then you still haven’t come up with a legit “why” such a system would even be put in place.
(sorry) typed that before your post came on. Didn’t mean to interrupt your comment. But, yes. All divisions should have same amount of teams.
The problem with that is MLS’s economic system has changed significantly since 2007, precisely because the Beckham rule has been ‘tweaked’ such that the teams that have bigger budgets can stay out of the zone if they they are willing to spend on them and remotely competent in how they do that.
No, it works mathematically, as long as you don’t require both tiers to have the same overall schedule length.
Just start out by scheduling one game for every matchup, regardless of the MLS1/2 split. That gives everybody 23 games. Then add a second game for the matchups within each tier. That puts it at 36 for MLS1 and 32 for MLS2. (This is using the 14/10 split as shown in the video.)
I’m thinking that’s rather dubious. Even with expanded DPs you can only get so far by spending big unless you spend smart with the rest of your roster. Sure NY and LA have been solid the last two years since having 3 DPs, but it’s the intelligence of the other signings that has made them. Guys like Ream, Tanio, Lindpere, Juninho, DeLaGarza have been just as important in the rise of those teams.
Teams like Chicago and Houston have been willing and able to spend on DP players but haven’t been able to break into the top half lately.
Oh, I get it now. The popular teams will spend money, and those that don’t have the same budget can get the fuck out of our league. Gotcha. Seems reasonable.
I look forward to the demise of MLS under any promotion/relegation system.
You have me on that one Stan! Please clarify!
I said I liked many of the ideas of this new supposed system, I never advocated its adoption. That’s not a cop out–that’s just a fact.
And yet, all they would have to do as an MLS2 team to make said playoffs, was to finish first out of 10 MLS2 teams… Totally do-able…
Nothing like the Pavlovian gripe response to the merest suggestion of pro/rel.
Here’s the thing, you’ll eat what the league serves you and swallow it with a smile. Pro/rel, no pro/rel, doesn’t matter.
Personally I hope it happens just to make people cry mightily unto God over the institution of a system that works all around the world in this sport.
yes, but why would ANYONE advocate it. Pro/Rel exists in Europe/Mexico, etc because every podunk town, neighborhood, and suburb has a team and there’s only so much room at the top and the teams exist independently of the league. In MLS teams are selected and created by the league itself based on economic factors/quality of the market, etc. Once a team/market is “in” there are no “small teams.” With a conference setup, even with an ever expanding number of teams there is absolutely no need whatsoever for a promotion/relegation system. All this does is create haves/have nots for no reason.
I saw something on Sportscenter that I think is relevant to this post. They had an analyst representing each of the four major sports in the US and asked who they would relegate and whether they thought pro/rel would actual work in their leagues. They all admitted that it would make for some dramatic final games, but that it is 100%, completely unworkable given there aren’t lower division teams to fill the empty spots. It was a little frightening to listen to talk about relegating the Timberwolves and Buffalo Bills, but it was reassuring to hear the analysts say it will never happen.
Personally, I hope it happens, too, because I want to see soccer in this country fail again to the point where there is no coming back, because if it does, we’ll only have to hear consistently about how promotion/relegation will make everything better.
Frankly, I like it, even if Moonlight Sonata was alternately drowning out your voice and giving me flashbacks to botched piano practices. Of course, I’m the guy who thought it was cool the one season Brazil did something similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copa_Jo%C3%A3o_Havelange
But I have a hard time coming up with a solid reason for backing it other than “it’s cool.” I think it’s certainly more practical than having a hard line between a top tier and second tier, and it’s a good way to accommodate future growth while keeping a balanced schedule. (OK, maybe those are solid reasons.)
As for the “debate” here: Let’s make one thing clear — there is no reason to take a hard line “for” or “against” some sort of pro/rel system. It depends entirely on the economic circumstances.
It boggles my mind when people say, “Oh, well, it works well everywhere else.” (A) Other countries don’t have their population spread over a giant land mass and (B) no, it doesn’t. European soccer is quickly dividing into clubs that can sustain massive debt and those that wind up in administration if they dare to try to compete. I enjoyed Survival Sunday as much as anyone, but I’d enjoy it more if I thought teams that survived or were promoted would be on a level playing field with the top six sometime in the next five years or so. (Manchester City is a unique circumstance.)
And yet for all the reasons why pro/rel would be foolish at the moment for all sorts of logistical and financial realities, why say “never?”
The ideal American approach is to take the best aspects in the old melting pot while sifting out the worst. We’re aiming, awkwardly, for a playing style that melds Old World athleticism and ruggedness with Latin flair. In our league system, why can’t we even discuss the idea of merging the fun of pro/rel without the financial wackiness afflicting Europe these days?
(Coming up next: My proposal for revamping the Europa League. Guaranteed to annoy and yet still be better than how it stands now.)
Great stuff, Beau. Enjoyed the post.
Congratulations, you’re now officially a doomsday cultist.
Yeah. I guess I worship at the altar of Not Fucking Up A Good Thing. My bible is “How To Not Fix Shit That Isn’t Broken To Begin With”. I highly recommend a read.
I respect your caution sir, but you might be a bit too cautious. That might have helped the French in WW2, however.
Twenty-four teams? Four divisions of six, top two in each division make the playoffs. Why is that so hard?
If there are 14 teams in your top tier, and 10 teams in your lower tier, each team in each tier can’t play the teams in the other tier exactly once, because that would require 14 opponents for those games on the top tier side, where there are only 10 available.
Good book, but then the sequel needs to be “How To Manage Something That’s Growing.” The question would be: What do you do if MLS has 30 viable cities/venues/ownership groups? (Other than party, which many of us would be doing.)
It’s a hint you might be on to something when you get two responses, one taking your premise for too little, and one for too much. The beauty is, you’ve probably both made the same basic mistake (mistook buying contendership with buying mere competence) and missed the target by equal amounts.
The mediocre teams are all very close together in quality. You only get real separation from the very good teams at the top and the very bad teams at the bottom.
The big bulge in the middle is where moderate salary flexibility comes into play–in a 24-team setup, the difference, let’s say, between finishing 16th and 10th.
The DP system doesn’t allow you to upgrade your whole roster, so buying your way into first seems unlikely (if you took eight average MLS players + 3 DPs, those DPs would have to be pretty damn good, probably impossibly good to get you to first). But 8 mediocre players plus 3 DPs has a much better chance of getting you to 12th or 10th if that’s the goal.
(Also, don’t forget, there are other ways to spend more than other teams. For instance, NYRB is the only team that employs a full time statistical analyst to scout opponents. NY and LA surely spend more in general on things like scouting, coaching, practice facilities, and youth development than most of their competitors.)
Does this mean that nobody else has a chance? Hardly. Look around, does it mean that nobody else has a chance right now? Just because it might be fairly predictable that NY and LA would finish in the top 14? There are 12 other slots to play for, full of mostly near-peers who you can quite plausibly out-point if you can out-think them.
That’s part of the ‘why’ of it. Suppose there are 30 viable markets for MLS if they have .500 records or better, a bunch of them aren’t viable if they’re losing most of the time.
Here, most of your excess teams will get a lower budget to operate with (if you’re doing it right) and a softer schedule, meaning that despite this lower budget you’ll have a better record.
The 25th best team in the NFL last year (Cleveland) had a record of 5 wins and 11 losses. The 25th best team in the English football ladder (Reading), had a record of 20 wins, 17 draws, and 9 losses. And I guarantee you that Cleveland had to spend more money relative to the NFL median than Reading did relative to the EPL median to get there.
Because then the pro/rel fanboys wouldn’t have any wet dreams over the demise of any MLS teams.
Here’s the thing, though: There are NOT 30 teams in MLS. There are NOT 30 viable markets for MLS. There are NOT 30 viable ownership groups for MLS. Also, you know what happens when you have a 30 team league? You get over-saturation. Look at Major League Baseball. They’ve wanted to contract teams for years, but the Players Association doesn’t want to lose jobs. Now, forever, MLB is stuck with 30 teams.
Also, you’re going to say, “Well, I don’t want pro/rel right now, but it will happen eventually…” Let me tell you something: It will never happen. There’s too much at stake to tinker with it. The future of soccer hinges on what MLS does now and continues to do. If you start tinkering with a system that has worked, and has been working, you will destroy it. You people want dominant and powerhouse teams? Look at what the Cosmos did to soccer in America. It was great watching a powerhouse team, unless your team wasn’t the powerhouse, then you were just jerking off.
You know what’s been around longer than organized soccer leagues? Baseball. The first soccer league was in 1888. The first major baseball league was created in 1876. For years, baseball has done the exact same thing with regards to its levels, and guess what? It’s still around, and it’s still working. They never tinkered with promotion and relegation. You know why? Because it’s not needed. That’s right. You know what we have in this country? We have a baseball pyramid. We have levels upon levels in baseball. You are never more than 30 minutes away from a baseball park where a professional game is being played. Baseball is EVERYWHERE in America. However, you don’t see the people of Buffalo or Scranton screaming about how baseball needs promotion and relegation so they can go to the majors.
If you care at all about MLS, you will understand that the league does not need promotion and relegation EVER. The league will succeed without it. There’s no reason to have it whatsoever. There is no justifiable reason for it EVER in this country. No one, and I mean NO ONE has ever said what the specific problem with MLS was that it needed promotion and relegation other than “the rest of the world does it”. If someone can point out the actual problem that MLS faces now or will face in the future that promotion and relegation is needed, I’m all ears. No one has a justifiable answer to that question. Until there’s a justifiable answer to the PROBLEM that exists that MLS needs promotion and relegation, you’re all just pro/rel fanboys who want to destroy a league that is trying to do good things. If you don’t like it, then don’t watch it anymore. If you want to see it succeed, let the billionaires do with their money and their league what they please, and enjoy the fact that your team will be around in the top flight next year and that you have the opportunity every year to possibly see them win a championship.
In 1998 there were 78 professional teams in D1/D2/D3.
In 2010 that number had dropped to 34 – with 16 in MLS
This year the number is up to 38, but only 20 are in D2/D3 – but that also includes teams in Antigua and Puerto Rico.
D2/D3 have lost the critical mass that allows them any geographic savings. The viable ownership groups are to MLS as fast as MLS will take them. And I can tell you that they’re moving to MLS to be in MLS – not MLS2.
78 pro teams in 1998 and now 12 years later there are only 38 pro teams. Maybe if MLS had a pro/rel system in place in 1998 the number of pro teams would have either remained the same or increased instead of more than half just disappearing. Fan interest in D2 and D3 would have remained high since there’s a chance to gain major league status. These pro teams may have been able to garner more community and governmental support to aquire funding for a stadium because of the very real possibility of making it to the top. What incentive do communities and local officials have in building soccer specific stadiums if the club has basically a slim to none chance of ever being in top flight unless the MLS monopoly deems them worthy.
Minor league baseball and Hockey work because the minor league teams are affiliated with major league teams and their top prospects play for them.
Minor league football will never work as well as minor league basketball since there’s no reason for NFL or NBA teams to have a minor league. Thus if a D2 Football league ever came about it would flop cause it would be filled with players who are not prospects and no chance for growth.
MLS doesn’t use D2 or D3 as a minor league so there’s no prospects to follow who will be future major league soccer players with the big club to keep fans interested and with no pro/rel there is no competetive carrot to keep fans interested.
Why would someone follow a D2 or D3 team that isn’t a player pipeline for the top flight teams or has no shot at being a top flight team. what incentive is there to support D2 or D3 soccer? None at all at the moment and that is why pro teams are dwindling.
Except that TCU would still get games against power teams, still have a title shot, and even failing that they’d be in the BCS the following year without having to play conference politics. So basically other than everything important your analogy works.
Seriously man, every college team not in the BCS now would leap at the chance to institute promotion and relegation into it.
Bud, i don’t care if this was a rumour etc. you wrote a blog post about it and it’s about the 10,000th mention of pro/rel this decade on this board. It gets tiring and it’s NEVER going to happen no matter how much you want it to so get on with life. Oh, and Euro leagues will abandon pro/rel someday, sooner than you think.
The problem with this is that there are obviously more than 30 markets that could support some level of professional baseball. MLB just bids up the price of poker to the point where less than 30 markets can afford MLB baseball.
I’m not saying that. I actually think it’s a pretty big longshot to ever take place.
However, this isn’t why. The thought that tinkering with anything that works will destroy it, as some sort of maxim, is a child’s logical fallacy. The notion that the league’s existence hangs by a thread will lose currency over time (it already has).
The problem for me is, as MLS gets older, is “this is how we’ve always done it” takes on greater and greater currency as a rhetorical device, (which you’ve proceeded to do with baseball), even though it really isn’t an actual argument.
The real reason why it’s a longshot is owners believe they can achieve above-market increases in franchise valuations in soccer, partially by guaranteeing that they stay in the first division–not as you’re arguing, that they think they’d be destroyed by the lack of said guarantee.
Nobody here is arguing for dominant teams, and promotion and relegation does not cause such a thing. The cause of dominant teams is free agency combined with an insufficient mix of salary cap/luxury tax/revenue sharing.
This sounds formulated perfectly so as not to be taken seriously by anyone of a critical bent. Your argument sounds every inch as breathless and desperate as the people you claim to be better than.
Promotion and relegation is only a matter of time. Be it 10 years or 40 years from now. Until then, something like this may be a decent alternative.
So wait a minute — baseball isn’t working (they have too many teams), and yet it is? Isn’t that a little contradictory?
Baseball actually tinkered too much for my tastes. The sport is meant to decide championships over the course of a long season, using the whole pitching staff. But now we have eight teams in the playoffs. After playing 162 games … why?
I am, but I’m nit-picking. And that’s really just because of traffic. I suppose I could get to Nationals Park in less than 30 on a Saturday with nothing slowing down the interstates.
If the league reaches 30 viable teams — and as Andy points out, we’re nowhere near that territory now — then I’d rather see a system like the one described here than an unbalanced schedule.
So I’m really more of a “balanced schedule” fanboy than a “promotion/relegation” fanboy.
And from what I see in other sports, as you say yourself, 30 is just too big for one league. The NFL can get away with it, just barely. Too many in baseball. Way too many in basketball, which is frankly one sport that SHOULD look into pro/rel rather than have perennially awful franchises.
And if you have perennially awful franchises, I’d rather give them a chance to regroup at a lower level than disappear altogether. I still wish there had been a way to keep Tampa Bay and Miami going in a lower division. Many years of continuity were lost, and it’s hard to restart from scratch.
I don’t think anyone here is trying to mess with what works. To use a house analogy — let’s say you have a perfectly nice house for your family of two. Then you’re thinking about having kids. You don’t have to tear down the house or move, but you need to think about how you’re going to accommodate everyone.
(But to reiterate — at this point, this is all academic. Get MLS to 20 first.)
That makes no sense at all. The MLS1 teams would play 10 cross-tier games, one against each MLS2 opponent.
14 MLS1 teams, each playing 10 MLS2 opponents = 140 cross-tier games.
10 MLS2 teams, each playing 14 MLS1 opponents = 140 cross-tier games.
Again, start with scheduling one game for every matchup, regardless of tier. That gives everybody 23 games. Then add a second game for every matchup within the tiers. MLS1 teams end up with 36 games, MLS2 teams end up with 32.
The overall idea is horrible, but the scheduling math works.
true enough
i think if we were to expand to 30 teams we could find 30 viable markets for MLS.
here in lies the problem. MLS isnt profitable enough to see people invest. We see enough US investors dabbling in soccer abroad, why not invest in something closer to home? At this point, why should they?
Obviously we are seeing some teams thrive, but as a whole most are in red. Thank god for tax right-offs
*smack head*
Sorry about that.
Thank goodness we worked that out Stan, because I was even able to work out a simulated schedule for such a MLS1/MLS2 set up and it worked fine–so I was beginning to think I’d lost my mind…
As for the guy who called me “bud” and shamed me for beating a dead horse… In my defense, this is a discussion about having pro/reg WITHOUT really having Pro/reg. So in essence, its about a “fake” pro/reg system–and in that way, its not REALLY a blog about pro/reg at all… But about how NOT to have it… Ah hell… forget it.
Note in today’s show about the Gold Cup that I do bring up our lovely debate here… Its been wild ride.
Maybe it’s because I don’t value tone and civility very much, but this doesn’t speak to whether FlJ is right or not.
I’m a good deal more tolerant of his tone since I happen to agree with him in every particular, of course. Not only will P/R never happen, it should never happen. P/R only theoretically works when the clubs are older than the league, which will never be true in MLS. The conference system allows for a top division of 36 and beyond, without devaluing a single team.
Exactly. All of these “it would be different/cool/American” to try something radical of different ideas overlook basic economic facts. Even if the Durham Bulls could somehow earn their way into the MLB play-offs by winning the International League, they’d still be a minor league team, lucky to average 5k a game. And if winning the International League got them a spot in the American League the following year, they’d still be playing in a 10k seat capacity stadium.
MLS1/MLS2 league designs are the fan-fiction of BigSoccer.
Your argument, though, is also breathless and desperate. You need the entire concept to be the fundamental economic failure that you have no evidence that it is. Then, to fill the first need, you need to fabricate evidence specifically from places where the system does not exist to explain that leap.
This argument insists that teams included in MLS1/MLS2 will be very small market teams with little fan support. I don’t see it that way. It’s very possible for the MLS to SLOWLY build the team base in the MLS family and continue to include more Portlands, Vancouvers, and Seattles, and fewer cities where soccer has never been a success and never will be one. I think you also can’t under-estimate the passion brewing in big cities without an MLS team across the US–cities that are pining for an MLS franchise and have models for success and marketing they can now follow. No need to re-invent the success wheel–take advantage of what we’ve learned when building momentum for a new franchise.
…why is it desirable to relegate teams with big fan support?
But Mr. Loney, its SIMULATED relegation in this format. They can still make the playoffs two ways: Open Cup and Finishing 1st in MLS2. And they still get to play MLS1 teams during the regular season–so it wouldn’t seem much like relegation in that way either. So its less and less like “relegation” than it appears on the surface when you hear “P&R.” That’s why I like this format–flaws, boils, rashy lumps and all. But I’m not married to it–I just prefer it over traditional P&R because I believe it plays to one of our basic values as Americans: we want to play the best and have a chance to be the best at the end of the season, and this system provides that opportunity–while simply providing MORE opportunity to MLS1 teams.
You know what other system provides that opportunity?
I don’t see what problem this solves.
Actually, what problem is any of this solving? Pleasing the people who claim they don’t watch MLS because there’s no promotion and relegation? They’ll just find some other excuse not to go.
I do like the Open Cup idea, though. And if the Milwaukee Bavarians win the Open Cup one year, yes they SHOULD be in the MLS playoffs.
I was thinking more like the PR Islanders–but its hard to not pull for the mighty Milwaukee Bavarians!
Don’t you hate it when people take a very, very funny reference and pedantically point out some piddly, utterly irrelevant bit if information intended to spoil the joke? Such people are made up of 50% bitterness, 50% pedantry, and will never amount to the Islanders actually aren’t eligible for the Open Cup.
Not very different from the idea I posted back in April…but mine makes more sense.
Ha!
As Bones might put it: Dammit, Loney! I’m a doctor, not a cartographer!
I knew I should have said the Montreal Impact….
But yours makes more sense? Thanks…
The similarities are eerie but MLS1/2 Sounds better than Pool 1/2. Still, are you sure we’re not related somehow?
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