MLS, Europe, etc. (pulled from Camp Cupcake 2016)

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by DHC1, Jan 10, 2016.

  1. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    Those would be my best guesses too, based on some combination of their national team play and the transfer rumors about those two that preceded this transfer window. But, it's possible there are a few other players out there with limited national team appearances and tight-lipped agents that have slipped under my radar (in which case I expect they would have slipped under the Transfermarkt folks' radar as well). Again I don't follow the league as closely as I once did, but that might change soon with the Revs possibly no longer sucking anymore.
     
  2. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    I have a completely different take. I think s/he is a reflexively defensive pro-MLS poster who rarely if ever takes issue with pro-MLS posts (similar to @Mahtzo1 and a few others in that all their critiques are fired in one direction. To be fair, you are the exact same ways albeit in reverse).

    i think s/he posts in good faith however but more from intuition and estimation as opposed to data. (Again similar to @Mahtzo1). Sometime newly presented data sways them a bit but at the end, they remain decidedly pro-MLS and that’s fine.

    I see no reason to get personal about it - it’s a soccer message board.
     
  3. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  4. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    if that’s the case, it’s hard to argue that there’s an issue with how transfermarkt values MLS relative to other leagues.

    it’s hard to hear but the elite teams appear to value our players for their raw material rather than their refinement - that’s why they want them as young as possible.
     
  5. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    I rarely see people change their minds and dont ever recall this specific poster doing so.

    I believe MLS fans arent that sharp, dont understand the game that well, and/or are just completely driven to blindly supporting the league. This completely dumbs down discussions.

    I think this is 4th thread in the recent past where he has a view that he wouldnt back off his opinion when tons of evidence to the contrary. The semantics and being just obnoxious is just an extra treat on top.

    I disagree that it is ok to be pro-MLS in a USMNT or YA forum. It allows this group to ruin it for the rest.
     
  6. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    #2731 KALM, Jan 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2020
    It may be, I really don't know. I might try to do a similar list to the one I just made for MLS for other leagues when I get the time (i.e., not just cherry picking the outliers but looking at all the players who have transferred to top leagues from a given league and seeing how much their values rose instantly or in a very brief period of time).

    From what I've seen, I suspect that Transfermarkt systematically undervalues MLS players (who haven't already played in top leagues abroad) more than it systematically undervalues other leagues' players in comparable positions. I don't think it undervalues them enough to say that there are a lot more American players who could easily be playing in the Premier League than there currently are (which is why I can't think of too many names in response to your question), but I think it under values players enough that it's probably not the best idea to rely on Transfermarkt to compare players in MLS to those in leagues outside of the majors.

    As I said earlier, I also agree with tomasbernal's point that England presents some particularly odd problems here. Again, England has by far the most valuable national team in the world according to Transfermarkt, even though that national team is ranked 12th right now by Elo. I don't know if that means England's players are "overvalued" but I think it does suggest that the "market value" of players in England, at least as judged by Transfermarkt, doesn't perfectly correspond to talent.
     
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  7. ChrisSSBB

    ChrisSSBB Member+

    Jun 22, 2005
    DE
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Talk about someone who doesn't know the game.
     
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  8. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    #2733 bsky22, Jan 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2020
    All this talk about Davies is just a distraction. It is just rounding error. The part about not having a player of the level of Vela was off as well

    Apparently, the top midfielders in the Champioship are valued much higher than those in MLS. Pozuelo is the highest valued MLS defender at $9.12. There are 7 midfielders in the champioship at that level or higher. It looks like the top 100 championship midfielders are around 3x the value of the top 100 MLS midfielders.

    ..........mls vs Championship
    1. $9.12m vs $17.10m
    25 $2.28m vs $5.70m
    50 $1.37m vs $3.42m
    75 $912k vs $2.28m
    100 $684k vs $1.71m
     
  9. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    Ah, a trademark of an MLS fan. That post had nothing to do with game.

    The league that successfully stalled the growth of the USMNT. Luckily we should have enough foreign based talent that we dont have to rely on the lesser MLS players. We will just need a coach that isnt biased toward mediocrity.
     
  10. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    take a look at post 2720. The issue isn’t any different for other transferrees. MLS isn’t over-represented in that list.
     
  11. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    you just posted this:

    transfermarkt has a strong bias towards European leagues and anyone who plays in them and that it isn't a good indicator of player quality if you're comparing, as the examples have been, Championship players to MLS players.
     
  12. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    you would have nothing to post about as almost all of your posts are effectively broad-sides against MLS, its supporters or he-who-shall-not-be-named.

    I can’t remember you debating with someone who you thought went too far in critiquing MLS.

    finally, of course it’s ok to be an MLS first or equal MLS and USMNT fan.
     
  13. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    He is a slippery one.

    I dont recall him admitting he was wrong when he claimed Morales was injured when in fact he was healthy for 4 windiest that he was ignored. The mod deleted the national team discussion and ignored his post that was well outside the ToS of this site.
     
  14. ChrisSSBB

    ChrisSSBB Member+

    Jun 22, 2005
    DE
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm a football fan and will watch where I can. Right now it is MLS and MNT if I want to watch in person. But, I have done the same in Germany, England and Ireland including WC matches. Also have had the opportunity to talk a couple of times with someone who played for your hero. Enlightening! I just don't care about blanket statements as there is little that is black and white, especially the game itself. There seems to be quite a bit of black and white here.
     
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  15. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    What that post shows is that some players' values increased in 18 months. That's pretty different than what I'm talking about.

    Just to take the top name on that list for example, Transfermarkt shows that Sancho's value increased a lot in 18 months while playing in the same league and at the same club during that entire period. I think Transfermarkt is correct about that, and I trust them to recognize when a player's value increases that much throughout their time in the Bundesliga.

    However, if a player remained in MLS over a period of 18 months and his play improved a lot, I would not feel as confident that Transfermarkt would fully recognize that increase in value, again based in part on what I've heard about how they evaluate this stuff and the examples I've seen.

    That's why I think a better measure is to compare Transfermarkt's valuation of players right before they transfer to the actual transfer fee or a short term increase in value after transferring. That might show you that Transfermarkt is more or less accurately predicting transfer fees or short term increases in value for some leagues and not others, or it might show you that Transfermarkt is about as accurate or inaccurate with this stuff for all leagues. I really don't know which one it is right now.
     
  16. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    I'd probably just discuss soccer. I would have loved for Garber, its media, and fans to have not interfered with the national team. I believe they are the ones that are responsible for the state of the program and at fault for the schism between the fan base.

    I disagree with posters who dont think a player like Morria doesnt have a place in our program with our current pool.

    You are free to your opinion. Apparently, the mods have a bias toward MLS fans and only enable them to be more obnoxious. That MLS flavor thread that I cant post in because I kept telling people the players wernt good enough doesnt belong N&A. It is just a thread for fanboys to dumb down the concept of the quality player needed for a successful national team.
     
  17. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    I usually dont like generalizations and dont intend my sweeping comments to be universally true, but they fit quite well for the majority of MLS fans I encounter. When it comes to the game there is a lot of grey but there are a bunch of guidelines that are generally true.

    I dont have a hero. If you were talking about Klinsmann, I dont recall you taking issue with blanket comments by petty fans that everything he did was wrong.

    It is crazy that I didnt hate JK when his strengths were I believe we needed at the time, he was an outsider (hopefully it is clear why that is important now), and did more to try to improve the program than any coach we have ever had. It is amazing to think where the program would be if they would have tried to work with him instead of fighting with him.
     
  18. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    Christian Pulisic has already done more for the program than any other program. Player after player goes abroad and talks about how much they improve early on. Off the top of my head mckennie, Adam's, sargent, Ledezma, and now Llanez have spoken about the inspiration he was and some the conversations he had with them.

    The impact on this generation and the ones that follow are going to take the program to a higher level than the one we stalled out at 15+ years ago.

    https://sbisoccer.com/2020/01/usmnt...ses-llanez-sets-sights-on-olympics-and-beyond

    “I’ve got to thank Christian Pulisic,” Llanez said. “He was a big part of it. If he didn’t go out there to Europe and did what he did he wouldn’t be where he’s at right now. He’s a big part of it. I feel like he’s helped a lot of Americans and I’m there now so hopefully everything goes well for me just the way like him.”
     
  19. Frenkie de Jong was early recognized by Overmars as an oustanding talent and his value only slightly increased by TM standards even at Ajax. TM simply have no tools to establish the true value of talents.
    https://www.transfermarkt.nl/frenkie-de-jong/marktwertverlauf/spieler/326330
    You can see TM has no clue about FdJ true value and only started to add money due to his addition to the first team of Ajax with a modest 2+million. After his addition to the Orange selection his value was upped to 7 million and his run with Ajax started to take form in the CL, providing real assesment points the value jumped to 40 million.
    Of course his value didnot grow in those 15 months from 2 million to 40 and on.
    His value was always at least that 40 million as he didnot add quality in those months. He already had those qualities, but TM hasnot got tools to establish it and only gets into realistic territory once the players gets metrics TM is familiar with.

    PSV player Donyell Malen shows the same pattern:
    https://www.transfermarkt.nl/donyell-malen/marktwertverlauf/spieler/326029
    Addition to the first team and later part of the Orange selection triggered big value jumps. Here too it must be obvious Malen didnot add quality in those months, those became visible for TM with tangible data points.
     
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  20. No, undervalued suggest the metrics were applied with bias thus resulting in undervaluation. That's not true. For youth players simply the data points lack to make a right valuation. Take all young players in the selection of Eredivisie clubs that didnot make the step into the first team yet or were just added to them and you will find a consistent number (with a top club bonus if part of such a club) of a couple of hundred thousand €€.
     
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  21. TM isnot about talent, but about the value of a player on the market. As such the England players arenot overvalued as these fetch/are bid for (or did fetch) the sums quoted by them, tinkered with some data TM thinks influences it like rest of contract duration etc.
     
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  22. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh for crying out loud, dude. You started the discussion with the parameters of Championship and MLS. I've responded within that context. Don't expand my opinions beyond the context of the discussion. Davies is a player, yes is a young player (who had nearly two seasons worth of first team games when he transferred). @KALM post provides lots more data. Why do I need to dig in further when there are plenty of data points @KALM presented already?
     
  23. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, please forgive me that I listed the pre-transfer valuation, the transfer price, and the one year post-transfer valuation without indicating that the valuation after the transfer was for the exact amount Bayern paid. This is a new level of nitpickiness.
     
  24. Calvin Stengs, who was out for a year due to ligament injury, shows the familiar pattern of a couple of hundred thousand as a young talent jumping into the millions after providing TM tangible data points like in a year time EL matches and debut for the Orange team. Already two matches after his debut for AZ first team I knew he was going to be special and horrified he tore his ligament after a few matches fearing it would end his rise. Thankfully he picked up the routine when back and one can see with the data TM only starts valuing youngsters after they provide hard data like (obviously!) debuting for one of the iconic national teams of the world (okay, I'm showing off;))
    https://www.transfermarkt.nl/calvin-stengs/marktwertverlauf/spieler/409344
     
  25. iad_22201

    iad_22201 Member+

    Jan 2, 2009
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is like the textbook definition of projection.
     
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