MLS, Europe, etc. (pulled from Camp Cupcake 2016)

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by DHC1, Jan 10, 2016.

  1. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    Your argument is you found one player that was off $10M from what one of the biggest clubs was willing to pay. It is an incredibly weak argument to suggest the tool isnt reasonable to use as a general guideline for the other 500+ players.

    No, I dont think it is grossly undervalued. I think Davies was a ridiculously athletic, raw 17 yo. I think a value of around $3M would have been reasonable. Teams rarely pay 8 figures for a young unproven player.
     
  2. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    looks like it was worth every penny.
     
  3. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    The guy isnt providing anything substantive to argue. Discussion are a constant moving target with poster like him. It is quite annoying to have them write things differently as the discussion progresses. I took issue with this comment "Bayern comes for him and, bam, 28.5M." It is confusing at best and intentionally deceptive at worst.

    Yes, it is weakness but extremely small when comparing to the value of a league.
     
  4. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    Perhaps. It was also lucky for him and Vancouver. The teams that are willing to spend that kind of money on an unproven kid also have the money to just buy a proven one. There is also the luck of them having an injury issue at left back that got him on the field.
     
  5. jond

    jond Member+

    Sep 28, 2010
    Club:
    Levski Sofia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    IMO the off season is too long for our domestic player pool.

    SJ for example if my math is correct, will have 21 weeks between competitive games. 10/6 thru 2/29.

    Bund for example is 13 weeks between competitive league matches 5/18 thru 8/17 and they're playing preseason tournaments by 10/11 weeks.

    SJ is currently 16 weeks out from their last competitive match and their first friendly is a week away. So 17 weeks after their last competitive game.

    So the off season is roughly two months longer than the Bund.

    La Liga also had a similar break as the Bund with clubs playing friendly tournaments in July.
     
  6. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    I would agree but the conventional wisdom around here is that it isnt true. Klinsmann was blasted for saying it.
     
  7. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    Apparently, the top defenders in the Champioship are valued much higher than those in MLS. Aaron Long is the highest valued MLS defender at $3.99 (seems reasonable to me). There are 35 defenders in the champioship at that level or higher. It looks like the top 100 championship defender are around 3x the value of the top 100 MLS defenders.

    ..........mls vs Championship
    1. $3.99m vs $13.68m
    25 $1.14m vs $3.99m
    50 $912k vs $2.85m
    75 $798k vs $2.28m
    100 $684k vs $1.71m
     
  8. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    i also get frustrated at some unsubstantiated remarks he makes but the fact remains that he did make a valid point wrt Davies and you argued it pedantically rather than just taking it as fact that Alphonso was deeply undervalued.
     
  9. ChrisSSBB

    ChrisSSBB Member+

    Jun 22, 2005
    DE
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Davies wouldn't have gone anywhere for $3M. He was being scouted by major clubs including Man United and Bayern, They knew the upside and $3M would be a flat out stupid number. Also, the transfer was not just $10M - that was just the initial outlay. The potential fee was for $22M if goals were achieved. I think it is safe to say the goals have been achieved, no matter what they were.
     
  10. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    That doesnt mean that isnt a reasonable value for an unproven kid. Teams pay more than the players values all the time.

    What is weird to me is why so many people talk about a canadian player in a USMNT forum.
     
  11. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    #2711 KALM, Jan 25, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2020
    So here's maybe one useful set of data points we can use. I just looked up all players who have transferred from MLS to a top 5 league between the 09/10 and 18/19 season (excluding players having previously appeared in those leagues), and compared their Transfermarkt value immediately before the transfer to both their transfer fees and their values 6 months after physically joining their new clubs. I thought that may be a more useful gauge of how accurately Transfermarkt values MLS players rather than just listing off current MLS players and using our gut sense to say whether they are under or over valued.

    Adams - $.1.14m (at NYRB) to RB Leipzig for $3m to $14.82m after 6 months
    Agudelo - $1.14m (at New England) to Stoke for free to $1.14m after 6 months
    Almiron - $17.1m (at Atlanta) to Newcastle for $27.36m to $22.8m after 6 months
    Cameron - $1.71m (at Houston) to Stoke for $2.45m to $5.7m after 6 months
    Ciman - $1.43m (at LAFC) to Dijon for unreported sum to $1.43m after 6 months
    Davies - $912k (at Vancouver) to Bayern for $11.4m to $11.4m after 6 months (now $28.5m)
    Espinoza - $684k (at Kansas City) to Wigan for free to $1.71m after 6 months
    Gonzalez - $684k (at Columbus) to Palermo for $4.33m to $5.7m after 6 months
    Harrison - $2m (at NYCFC) to Man City for $4.56m to $3.99m after 6 months
    Holden - $200k (at Houston) to Bolton for free to $855k/$4.56m after 6 months -- note: $4.56m after first 6 months uninjured
    Kamara - $570k (at Columbus) to Middlesbrough for $1.14m to $798k after 6 months
    Miazga - $171k (at NYRB) to Chelsea for $5.24m to $2.85m after 6 months
    Oyongo - $114k (at Montreal) to Montpellier for free to $4.56m after 6 months
    Ream - $285k (at NYRB) to Bolton for $3.53m to $2.28m after 6 months
    Shea - $2.8m (at Dallas) to Stoke for $3.42m to $1.71m after 6 months
    Soumare - $285k (at Chicago) to Boulogne for $1.14m to $1.14m after 6 months
    Steffen - $5.7m (at Columbus) to Man City for $9.12m to $11.4m after 6 months
    Yedlin - $285k (at Seattle) to Tottenham for $2.96m to $1.71m after 6 months (now $9.12m)

    Note: Transfermarkt doesn't always update this stuff every 6 months, so for some of these I had to use the closest dates, but they generally weren't far off. Also there's been a lot of transfer fee inflation over the past 10 years, so the numbers from a decade ago might not be all that useful anymore, but it was hard to get a decent enough sample size without going back 10 seasons. (Oh and I excluded one player from that list -- Mix Diskerud -- for hopefully obvious reasons).
     
    tomásbernal, DHC1 and bsky22 repped this.
  12. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    I addressed the comments about Davies... It a shortcoming, but not significant to discussion, the idea that his value should be over $10M because a couple big teams were scouting him (people would be talking about players being over valued), and davies is an exception.

    The comment I took issue with looks like it was further trying to discredit the site. All he had to say was it was misleading.
     
  13. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    Nice analysis!!!

    it looks like a good portion of these were undervalued, a few blew up after the move, and few teams over paid.

    All this really tells us though is that those who are sought after by foreign teams and move may be undervalued. it say anything about the guys who stay in the league. So I guess a handful of players every year are under rated. Not enough in my mind to throw the value of the site.
     
  14. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm not disregarding it as a tool. I'm saying it has a strong bias towards European leagues. I used the example of Davies because he had played dozens of first team games by the time he was bought for 12.5 times more than transfermarkt valued him at. Rising star, yes, but a pretty well-known quantity among folks who follow MLS. Transfermarkt doesn't appear to follow MLS (though they appear to give lots of credibility to national team appearances).
     
  15. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How do you figure? The first post you quoted specifically refers to 3 different transfermarkt valuations at various points. It's impossible to miss, unless you filter out the word "transfermarkt" from my post. Are you blind?
     
  16. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    you say this but without anything other than Davies. What other examples do you have other than one out of 700 that’s there’s a Euro bias? How many other examples would you need before you could feel comfortable that there is a bias? Why is this only an MLS bias and not system wide for young players? I don’t think Antonee Robinson was valued at $12m - is it biased against the championship?
     
  17. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    who are the players who “have developed wholly within the league and have shown the ability to move up a level” in your opinion?

    seems like Cannon and Long would be the leading candidates and there isn’t a lot of noise about either of them....
     
  18. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    See @KALM post above. It's very good.

    Robinson is currently valued at 2.85M (as of October 17th), or slightly under 1/4 the rumored transfer fee. If I knew how to sort transfermarkt information so that I could see what outgoing Championship players were making 6 months later, ala KALM, I'd have a look and tell you. Perhaps you know how to do it?
     
  19. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    do you have examples that show that this isn’t only an MLS issues? Thank you
     
  20. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC

    Here’s a list that shows pretty clearly that it’s not an MLS issue but rather as @feyenoordsoccerfan noted is about youth player globally.

    https://www.transfermarkt.com/spiel...tion_id=&altersklasse=alle&land_id=0&yt0=Show

    The US is not over represented no matter how you cut the data.
     
  21. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No one is arguing it's an MLS-only issue.
     
  22. DHC1

    DHC1 Member+

    Jun 3, 2002
    NYC
    you just said that it over values European league players relative to MLS and used Davies as your prime evidence.

    transfermarkt has a strong bias towards European leagues and anyone who plays in them and that it isn't a good indicator of player quality if you're comparing, as the examples have been, Championship players to MLSplayers.

    now it’s pretty clear that the Davies under-valuation is a systemic one for youth (post 2720 makes that abundantly clear IMO)

    so where is your data basis for a bias against MLS now that the Davies data point doesn’t say what you want it to say? I’d note that @KALM’s point appears to be valid for all leagues and not just MLS but s/he is free to elaborate.
     
  23. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    So bizarre. You mentioned two transfermarkt values and the amount Bayern paid. You didnt mention the transfermarkt valuation after he moved to Bayern until the third post I quoted.
     
  24. bsky22

    bsky22 Member+

    Dec 8, 2003
    It is just exhausting.

    I saw a little bit ago he got you the other day with the phrase "pretty spot on". I've never heard of people creating their own oxy morons.
     
  25. I try to assemble some examples from the Dutch league of high profile players.
     

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