If you use a meta analysis and eliminate Clark and Turner (who were by far the best on almost every statistical list) for limited minutes, Only Hamid belongs. Bingham, Miller, Crepeau (WhoScored top keeper) all have more merit.
No statistical measure is going to be perfect. But outside of instances of injury, extremes of the that magnitude are very unlikely (and not found on any other list of statistical measure). As such, they are red flags in statistical analysis. That said, many other lists also note a significant change in performance. But giving credit where credit is due, with that exception noted, I thought the analysis was pretty good. Some only focus on shot blocking and don't take into account distribution (which I think is way over emphasized which is why Hamid and Frie never really got a shot they both deserved for the Nats).
Hey I appreciate you taking a look : ) I guess I would just push back on big performance swings being very unlikely as it happens a good bit in the league. Looking at the most consistent and prolific goal scorers, Chris Wondolowski had 8+ goal jumps in his career from season-to-season three times. Donovan twice. Jeff Cunningham four times. Etc etc. You start looking at guys who had one hit wonders and it becomes one prevalent. Happens 2-3 times in ten years, is what I'm seeing for the average MLS goal scorer. Players have good/bad years for a variety of reasons (as listed before). If every goalkeeper was having a big swing, that would be concerning (and make the stat essentially worthless). But for goalkeepers who are conceding upwards of 60, 70 goals a year, having a swing of eight goals 15% of the time isn't that much. Median GSAR change for returning goalkeepers is a little less than 4 (up or down), which sounds about normal considering their workload, how drastically different end of year awards are (aka lack of consistency), and noticing strikers like Donovan had a 4 goal swing 8 times in his career.
I feel David Bingham has been significantly underrated. He lead the league in shots faced and total saves and was in the top 5 in save % and still didn't even make LA's defender of the year. Kinda ridiculous, when he's faced more shots than any other GKer in the league.
He has a better GAA than Tim Howard, who faced 70 fewer shots. To put that in context, let's say Bingham's save rate (72.3%) was just a little bit worse. Say, equal to cross-town rival Tyler Miller's at 69.9%. That's about 4.5 more goals the Galaxy give up this season; could be the difference between them making the playoffs and not (as it is, LA and NE are the only teams in the playoffs with a negative GD).
He’s been a top 10 keeper over his 3.5 years when you look at advanced stats that attempt to factor out the effect of the defense in front of a keeper. Hardly an agreed upon fact that he’s been dismal.
The one thing people could complain about was the salary. Coloado probably could have spent the money elsewhere, but then again maybe the money was specifically earmarked for only Howard. Did he perform at a multi-million dollar level? No. But certainly agree he wasn't dismal either.
This is largely the case. Its no coincidence that on the same weekend that Howard's signing was announced it was announced that TransAmerica was extending their jersey sponsorship for another couple of years, expiring at the same time Howard's contract did. Reportedly the terms of the deal were a little more per year than what Howard was getting paid too. Essentially Howard landed TransAmerica as a sponsor, and TransAmerica covered the costs, and then some, of signing Howard.
Different things. 8+ goals doesn't put someone from being the best forward in the league to near the worst among starters as is the with the goal keeper rankings. We are talking about a healthy Vela, Martinez, Ibra going to near last next year among forwards that regularly start. Now a credible counter argument for your model (which overall I find meets the my eye test) is that the difference in ability between the top keepers is much smaller than the difference in ability between the top forwards. So even a moderate drop in form (change in teams playing system, personnel, injury, or just plain luck) will have a much amplified impact on relative performance among players of similar ability.
Howard wasn't dismal, but instead mediocre. When you also argue that Rapids had a reasonably high payroll, the fact that much of it was spent on a mediocre keeper because they could find someone willing to foot the bill, it doesn't ring true.