The 2020 Election Mega Thread

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Knave, May 8, 2017.

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  1. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    You know, if the President were elected by popular vote, then we wouldn't have any of these conversations, since everybody's vote would be as meaningful (or meaningless) as the next person's.

    But those who have the extra voting power don't wish to give up their privilege, so that won't be happening.
     
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  2. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #3952 ToMhIlL, Oct 8, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2019
    "Dotard" is an old word, and while most people were not familiar with it, once Dear Leader insulted the other Dear Leader with it, it became much more widely known. I don't think there are that many people who are conflating it with "retard." It should not be banned--anyone offended should be given a dictionary. The same as the word "niggardly" has nothing to do with race, just how free spending someone is willing to be.

    As for abolishing the EC "shitting" on the fine folks of Ohio, Florida, or any other "swing" state, tell that to a liberal in Utah or a conservative in the People's Revolutionary Socialist Republic of Massachusettstan. Those are the people whose votes don't count
     
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  3. Boloni86

    Boloni86 Member+

    Jun 7, 2000
    Baltimore
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Gibraltar
    I really don't think Dems have a choice. I know this is a presidential thread, but 2020 is just as much about Congress as it is about the president.

    If you look at the 2018 mid terms, there were literally no urban districts available for us to flip. We already had them all. There were maybe about 10 districts that were urban/suburban mix, but to flip the House we needed 24. The only path for us was to appeal to exurban districts, and we did it masterfully. Pelosi backed off and allowed those candidates to define themselves as separate from the mainstream coastal Democratic identity. The party chose to have several small campaigns instead of one broad national campaign in order to flip those districts.

    The problem in 2016 was the fact that in presidential years it's hard to hide from the national narrative. Our hopes in Congress tanked on Hillary's coattails. This is why 2020 is such a potential minefield. The coastal Democratic narrative has not gotten any more appealing in these exurban districts. If we want to add any more seats in the House, the list of winnable districts is going to be even more exurban this time. And in order to win the Senate, we need to win in Colorado, Arizona, Maine and North Carolina. Colorado is the only one where a hard left national narrative might win, but the other 3 are problematic.

    Until the math changes, I don't think Dems have a choice. You need a 50 state strategy. If 2018 taught us anything is that we shouldn't punt anywhere. We even picked up seats in Utah and Kansas. A base only partisan campaign from the Dems might win you the White House because Trump is such an erratic wildcard. But it's not going to open the door to any long term legislative success. A base only national campaign will likely cost us the Senate, so every bill will just get blocked there. Not to mention governors and state legislatures ...
     
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  4. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Warren passes Biden in the RCP polling average. Four out of five polls currently averaged have her leading Biden. The one poll that doesn't has Biden +12 over Warren. But I think it's safe to say Biden is no longer the frontrunner.
     
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  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Meh, I say fvck the rural vote, go after the Globalist vote.

    We need the realignment to happen already, Internationalists vs Nationalists.

    Go after the suburbs try to maximize the votes in smaller cities and their suburbs.

    There are some Metro areas that are still out there for Democrats to pick or increase their share.

    upload_2019-10-9_9-31-16.png

    https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/12/mapping-how-americas-metro-areas-voted/508313/

    But that is just me, perhaps doing so would be a disaster for democrats.
     
  6. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Having said the above.

    The economy we now have and the economy that we will have in the future, are going to favor large cities over smaller cities.

    That is why Trump did better in smaller rural cities than Romney.

    You can say they became more racist (or they showed them selves more) or economic anxiety, what ever you want to call it.


    upload_2019-10-9_9-36-29.png


    http://jedkolko.com/2016/11/11/the-geography-of-the-2016-vote/
     
  7. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But that won't work. All the Globalists are at temple. Today is Yom Kippur.
     
  8. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Joe Biden has picked up the all-important Clay Aiken endorsement. Warren and Sanders are ********ed.
     
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  9. sitruc

    sitruc Member+

    Jul 25, 2006
    Virginia
    Sadly, I'm sure there's someone in this thread who buys all of this bad and dishonest logic.
     
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  10. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    She sure does like to allege conspiracies.
     
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  11. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    #3961 MatthausSammer, Oct 10, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019
    I already said this in the debate thread, but this is deeply stupid. A line has to be drawn somewhere, using some combo of arbitrary metrics. That's just the reality. Tulsi simply isn't living in the real world if she can't accept that she just isn't gaining enough traction to deserve coverage and entry to these debates. If anything, the bar for entry is way too low, not too high.

    Really, as far as I'm concerned, there's two tiers of candidates who deserve to still stay in the race; candidates with a realistic path to be the nominee, and candidates with a realistic path to impacting the race. Tier one is Bernie, Warren, Biden, tier two is Buttgieg, Yang, Harris, maybe Booker and Klobuchar if you really want to be inclusive about it. Everyone else can screw off.
     
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  12. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    A perfect opportunity for pro/rel.
     
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  13. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    And as a third party voter, is almost worth an ounce of Ambrosia.
     
  14. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My vote is worth exactly as much as every other vote.
     
  15. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    #3965 MatthausSammer, Oct 10, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019
    That isn't true, on multiple levels. And if it were, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

    Firstly, on one level, the amount of population per electoral vote. In Wyoming, they get three electoral votes for a population of 537 000. In California, they get 55 electoral votes for a population of 39.56 million.

    39,560,000/55=719,273

    So if everyone in California and Wyoming voted, each individual Wyomingian's vote would be worth over three times that of each individual Californian's vote in terms of population versus electoral vote distribution. Literally in terms of mathematics, a Californian's vote is almost worthless compared to the vote of individuals in small states.

    On another level, competitiveness. Because of the current landscape, most states have strong tendencies to polarize to one end or another of two roughly equally-matched parties, taking most electoral votes by and large off the table barring an extraordinary blowout. As a result, competition for states that can be the tipping point of what would otherwise be a close election is massive. As a result, votes in states that have been competitive historically are fought over tooth and nail, and are much more valuable than votes in polarized states. If Democrats could somehow "cash in" ten votes from California, or Republicans ten votes from Texas, to gain one vote in Ohio or Pennsylvania after the fact, they absolutely would do that. Your vote, like it or not, is more valuable than the majority of Americans' from not just a population standpoint, but a competitive one.

    On still a further level, if it were genuinely true that everyone's vote counts the same, Hilary Clinton would be President. Period. It's obvious to a toddler which number is bigger between 65 mil and 63 mil, all else being equal. Why can a toddler see what you can't? You aren't just wrong when you say your vote counts the same as everyone else's, you're obviously wrong, on three different levels. A calculator could tell you that, a political strategist could tell you that, and a toddler could tell you that.
     
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  16. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks for the explanation, but do you really think I didn’t know all of that? Do you think that a multitude of people haven’t done exactly what you just did?

    We live in a country with 50 individual elections that are used to collectively elect the president. I get one vote in my state election as you do in yours.

    Maybe you should move here to make it more favorable to your preferred candidate.

    Maybe my pointless vote is just as pointless as a Republican that lives in LA.

    But again, thanks for the condescending post.
     
  17. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Just correcting an inaccuracy. You said a wrong thing. How am I supposed to know you know it's wrong? :)
     
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  18. stanger

    stanger BigSoccer Supporter

    Nov 29, 2008
    Columbus
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is this considered lib ‘splanin?
     
  19. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    You can call it that, sure.
     
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  20. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    If you'd read Judith Butler on gender theory, you'd know that the answer is both.
     
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  21. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Because they are becoming extinct?
     
  22. MatthausSammer

    MatthausSammer Moderator
    Staff Member

    Dec 9, 2012
    Canada
    Club:
    Borussia Dortmund
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Can you elaborate?
     
  23. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    1182806730767503362 is not a valid tweet id
     
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  24. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    :thumbsup:

    She got “free rein” right.
     
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  25. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    She used to be a teacher but got fired because she got pregnant...




    Somehow that’s supposed to look bad on her...
     

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