I honestly don’t know if this is good or bad for us, but we have 6 games remaining and only the RSL game is against a team currently in a playoff spot. And 4 of the 6 are against the 4 bottom teams currently in the west. For what it’s worth....
It's probably my confirmation bias, but it looks to me like this squad plays down to the level of the opposition. Which leads me to think we will lose two games that we shouldn't.
After "2-1 loss" to COL (according to refs): 538 probability of making playoffs: 80%. Predicted final position: 2nd: 5% (likely two playoff games at home) 3rd-4th: 23% (likely one playoff game at home) 5th->7th: 52% (road games throughout playoffs) 8th->9th: 20% (season failure)
Finally some good news. After 7-2 win at home vs. SKC : Make playoffs: 94%. Predicted final position: 2nd: 11% (likely two playoff games at home) 3rd-4th: 36% (likely one playoff game at home) 5th->7th: 47% (road games throughout playoffs) 8th->9th: 6% (season failure) Btw the 538 site has been posting an errant gd for us for a few days (says +2 now). I don't think that would affect the predictions enough to notice though.
Just looking ahead: Montreal at home (they have a midweek match, we don't) WIN Midweek at RSL (tough) Home vs Vancouver (long out of contention) WIN at Houston (likely eliminated) I think we win our two home games and if we win one of our two away I think we finish top 4. If we can not lose to RSL, even better.
Probability after 2-1 win vs MTL: Make playoffs: >99%!!!!!!!!!!! Predicted final position: 2nd: 23% (at least two playoff games at home) 3rd-4th: 46% (at least one playoff game at home) 5th->7th: 20% (road games throughout playoffs) 8th->9th: 0%. Season failure - Ain’t going to happen.
I find it odd that the #7 seed can't potentially meet the #1 seed until the Conference Final. It's kind of a reward for being a shitty team in a way.
Yes, not reseeding means that if the #7 team wins against #2, then they get to have the #2 seeding the rest of the way....
I didn’t realize this. I had been working on the assumption that end of season standings determined home game status throughout playoffs. Edit: I actually dont see anything suggesting that my assumption was wrong. Trickhog, why you think if 7 seed beats 2 seed they get next game at home? Edit edit: I guess that is not what you were saying. Nevermind...
#7 path is most likely vs #2,#3 and #1 in that order. Not an easy path. But I see your point - with reseeding they could have #7 play #1 in 2nd game.
Yes, higher seed always plays at home, but they don't reseed so that the highest seed plays the lowest remaining team, etc.
I started to write all this in the RSL game thread, then thought it might be better here. We're currently at 48 pts, RSL at 47. IF we can get at least a point wed against RSL, they don't gain any ground on us. If they beat us straight out, we're on the outside looking in, and in pretty bad shape for getting that first game at home. but IF we can get at least a point against RSL: SJ and Portland not making up any ground on us Wed, may give us the separation we need to just about eliminate them as challengers for a top 4 finish. SJ has lost 3 straight- granted away against good teams, and now they're home for two- but also against good teams- Philly and Seattle. Lose those two and there's no chance they can catch us. I expect Philly will beat them, but it's closer against Seattle. That said, they're at 44. If they win all three games, they finish with 53, but I think a more likely outcome is 2-4 points from the last three games, in which case, they won't overtake us. Portland- likewise cold for the last 3, have an easier schedule but they pretty much need to win all three to have any chance to catch us. Same as with SJ, any stumbles and they stay below us.... as long as we take 4-5 points from the remaining games. FCD only has two games left, and they have to win both and hope we lay eggs everywhere, in order catch us. If we get 3 pts against Vancouver and 1 against either Houston or RSL and we're out of reach. RSL though: even if we get a point against them, and beat Vancouver, they will be playing Houston then Vancouver themselves- both pretty winnable games. Which means it may well come down to that last game in Houston to determine who stays in the home bracket. Above us: MNFC play the Sporks, LAFC (suddenly winless in 5) and Seattle. Tougher, so we should expect they will not be taking a full complement of points. They're only 1 ahead of us, and we for sure have the possibility of passing them. Seattle: currently losing to DC as I write this, then home with SJ next, then away MN. Any stumbles by them too opens up an opportunity for us to maybe even pass, but it seems unlikely to me we'd pass them in the standings.
The games this weekend fell kindly for us. Hopefully we can get a result in RSL and keep it going....
The way we play I’m not all that interested in the playoffs. Then I watch the way the rest of the west plays and it’s pretty clear we’re on par with the rest of this wildly inconsistent conference. we could get knocked out in the first game or go all the way to the conference final. It’s a real weird season.
Dude, we are finishing second and not leaving town until we go to Yankee Stadium or Atlanta in the final. I feel it.
Probabilities updated after last nights games (POR draw with MIN, SEA loss, DAL draw): Make playoffs: Still >99%!!!!!!!!!!! Predicted final position: 2nd: 30%, highest its been in a long while! (at least two playoff games at home) 3rd-4th: 45% (at least one playoff game at home) 5th->7th: 25% (road games throughout playoffs) 8th->9th: <1%. Nope. Finally we are actually favored to end in top 4!
I know you are kidding but in reality our only trap game (in the sense of easily being overconfident) should be the VAN home game. The other two we have no reason to be overconfident since we are actually dogs to win. Below are the current outcome probabilities for remaining schedule. I added expected points for each game (on average # of points we would expect to win if the game was played many times): @RSL 26% to win, 23% to draw, 51% to lose. Expected points: .26*3+.23=1.01 VAN 77% to win, 14% to draw, 9% to lose. Expected points: .77*3+.14=2.45 @ HOU 36% to win*, 21% to draw, 43% to lose. Expected points: .36*3+.21=1.29 The expected points totals emphasize how important it is to win home games, where you have the advantage and points are expected. Total expected points over three remaining games: 1.01+2.45+1.29 = 4.65 Season total prediction = 48+4.65 = 52.65, round to 53. *Btw 538 does factor in the importance of the match for each team into their calculations, so they docked HOU's strength a bit due to game having no playoff implications for them. Similarly they boosted our rating a bit since game will likely be of high importance for place of finish.
Can you do the same expected point analysis on the Western Conference places 2-8 and post the final table? I.e. we'd have 52.65 points in that table. I'd be curious where the stats suggest we finish. My gut feeling tells me that 4 points should insure a home playoff game and 6 points probably 2nd overall.
Knave's thread in N&A says that if everyone hits their projected points total, that we would finish 3, winning the tiebreaker with Seattle for 3rd seed and finishing behind LAFC and MUFC.
Galaxy needs to push for that 4 seed so that we can win our first leg and then go on to play LAFC! https://galaxygolazo.wordpress.com/2019/09/11/post/
Using 538 predictions: SEA, currently 14 wins, +1gd, 50 pts, 2 games left predicted to end with 53 total. MIN, currently 14 wins, +9gd, 49 pts, 3 games left, predicted to end with 53 total. LAG, currently 15 wins, +1gd, 48 pts, 3 games left, predicted to end with 53 total. RSL, currently 14 wins, +4gd, 47 pts, 3 games left predicted to end with 52 total. Table drops off rapidly after that. DAL has 45 but only 2 games left & expected 48, SJ & POR have 44 & both expected 49. Number of wins is first tie breaker, then goal differential, then goals for. For us to end up with 53 or more we would have to go 1-0-2 or 2-x-x and would have 16 or 17 wins. For MIN to end up with 53 they would have to go 1-1-1 and would have 15 wins. They have SKC at home, LAFC at home and SEA away. For SEA to end up with 53 they would have to go 1-1-0 and would have 15 wins. They have SJ on the road and MIN at home. For RSL to end up with 52 they would have to go 1-0-2 and would have 15 wins. They have us at home, HOU at home and VAN away. So if real life exactly follows probability then SEA, MIN & LAG all end at 53 and we get 2nd due to most wins, MIN 3rd due to goal differential and SEA gets 4th place. And if we go 1-1-1 and RSL gets their predicted 52 points we get 4th due to a greater number of wins. Real life of course won't follow this blueprint exactly. But I think it is still a good bet that if we get 4 points from our final three games end up 4th and if we get 5 we probably end up in 2nd.
So I saw a chart with MPP for the west. If we get 4 points out of our last 3 games, we are guaranteed a playoff spot. 5 (if we beat RSL) or 6 points (if we don't) will guarantee us to at least 4th and a first-round home playoff game. If we win out, we are guaranteed 3rd. If we win out and MUFC doesn't, then we get 2nd. So here we go....
Update: Someone pointed out that with us having the first tiebreaker over Dallas (number of wins), that we only need 3 pts to clench a playoff spot.