Neverending Story 3: The Ongoing Brexit Thread

There's already talk of a day one no confidence vote.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...T_uAxijRUEsQydh0tXPaajSCTm_Vp7B1QS3x6R3ebyg3E

 

The EU wouldn't give an extension DURING a general election that might lead to a new government that could either agree to membership of the CU/IM or maybe even revoke revoke A50?

Er... I wouldn't have thought so.

 

Oh, I think we're in constitutional crisis territory anyway, tbh, almost by default unless something else happens.

Just looking at the position in HoC here...

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/

So 650 MP's, minus the 7 SInn Fein MP's, (who can't be arsed to turn up), means a party needs 322 MP's to form a majority, (well, 321.5 strictly speaking), so that means the tories WITH the DUP are just about OK.

But then there's this guy and another dozen like-minded individuals who will either abstain or vote AGAINST their own government...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48742881

And then there's a by election happening in Wales that might mean an extra non-tory MP, (probably liberal in that area), being elected...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brecon_and_Radnorshire_by-election

So that means, AFAIK, that if even ONE tory mp abstains, (and certainly if a dozen do), they'd lose a confidence vote.

I believe Johnson would then have 2 weeks to go to the country and be able to convince the queen that he had the support of the commons or was going to hold a GE. As he'd already lost a vote but is claiming to still have that support that places the queen in a very difficult position and one that no monarch has been in for... well... a long time, shall we say.

However, if you continued reading the times piece they say they have some vague information about Johnson chickening out and coming to some sort of soft brexit deal WITH the EU.

At the same time, The Sunday Times can reveal that EU diplomats have launched a secret outreach effort to Johnson.

A senior European diplomat last week used an intermediary to tell the Tory leadership frontrunner that EU leaders in German, France, Holland and the European Commission are prepared to do business with him.

Both commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have signalled that they want to get Brexit finalised “on their watch” before the autumn and both are prepared to break off their summer holidays to meet him.

While the EU remains resistant to reopening the withdrawal agreement, Johnson has been told that they could add to it, will rewrite the political declaration on a future relationship and could wrap the whole thing up in a new “umbrella” deal.

That is unlikely to go far enough for Brexiteer hardliners whom Johnson has had to woo to help him secure the leadership.​

Whether any of that's true is another matter but, tbh, it wouldn't surprise me. It's not like they haven't got other 'issues' to consider so just offer the clown a soft brexit and leave HIM with the job of selling it to the rubes.

 

They had a majority of 5 (with DUP support) before the Brecon recall. Lib Dems are almost certain to win that seat - they held it for 18 years before the Coalition Cull of 2015 and were polling at over 50% there the last I saw - so that's down to 3. With Hunt, they can probably bank on what's left of the Independent Group to support them, unless they pile in with the Lib Dems. With Johnson, that's likely out of the window as Soubry hates him. Boles may back them under either outcome.
I don't see how Johnson could realistically go to the Queen if 2 or 3 Tories come out against him, as he would be almost certain to lose a confidence vote in that situation. Hunt probably gets to carry on unchallenged in the Commons though.

 

The ERG will have his head if he goes that way. He wouldn't see out the year.

 

Just read that Boles and the Change MPs would back a no confidence vote to prevent No Deal. Whether that would be next month is another matter.

 

???

Not sure where the 5 comes from, tbh.

They have 312, (according to the parliament website I linked to), so with the DUP they have 322 which is exactly half the numbed of MP's that sit in the HoC.

I'm probably missing something but doesn't that mean they're screwed if even ONE tory votes against them or even abstains?

I mean, bearing in mind the bulk of the tiggers were labour MP's who wouldn't actively support a tory government heading for a no-deal and even the ex-tory ones left their party specifically because it was heading for a no-deal brexit.

That's my thinking.

If he pivots towards a 'soft brexit with labour, liberals, and SNP all being against him, he'll lose and if he goes too far the other way the head-bangers on the other side will turn against him.

I think the point is there's huge difference between idiots like Flint being prepared to vote against the whip on a one-off vote to push through some form of brexit but to expect them to actively support a tory government in a no confidence vote... THAT'S a completely different matter... more so if it's led by somebody like Johnson.

 

Yeah, I think that's very much 'their thang'.

 

The Speaker and deputies don't vote.
And they can probably bank on Hoey backing them or abstaining.

 

Ah, yeah... of course.

Hoey's a strange one. Like I say, I can see her voting for a no-deal brexit but voting to keep a Johnson-led tory government in power to do it? Hmmm... I'd be surprised, tbh.

 

The guy mentions Fox there but, to be fair to the guy, (although god knows why),...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48736975

Boris Johnson's claim that world trade rules could be used after Brexit to avoid tariffs "isn't true", cabinet minister Liam Fox has said.

The international trade secretary, who is backing Jeremy Hunt for leader, said the EU will apply trade tariffs.​

 

So, pointing out I didn't read the post right, eh?

 

Interesting development in Istanbul. I would not have expected the opposition to win the mayoral election in the re-vote.

 

Why not? Because of the revote it was in the glaring light, so even for manipulators like Erdogunner a daunting challenge to cheat himself into victory.

Yup, because the revote was a clear and loud message Erdogunner is vulnerable. It would have been better in hindsight to quietly have accepted the first election with rumbling about foul play to arouse his supporters. Now he's facing an existential threat to his dictatorship ambitions because of this result.

 

A Dutch cartoonist with a dislike of Brexit has been producing some jewels about it.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/cultuur-m...tig~bdc41546/?referer=https://www.google.com/


De Collignon van 10 juni 2017. De tekening werd onder andere opgepikt door het Britse magazine ‘The Spectator’. Beeld Collignon

De Collignon van dinsdag 9 april: linksonder de voorzitter van de Europese Commissie, Jean-Claude Juncker. Rechts van boven naar beneden: harde brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg, premier Theresa May, Labour-leider Jeremy Corbyn en de conservatieve politicus Boris Johnson. Beeld Jos Collignon

This one of today is brilliant, I think

25 juni 2019 Jos Collignon
Text in English:
Who wants to negotiate with the bear?
Nobody?
Then the bear has won.
We already know how it will unfold

 

Meanwhile...



If the election were today, we'd have a hung Parliament, with Brexit/Cons splitting the Leave vote and Labour/LibDems splitting the Remain vote. The three explicitly Remainer parties have - in these polls - 26% of the vote. The explicitly Leave parties have 23% of the vote. Labour averages 23% of the vote. And the governing party is in last place with 21% of the vote.

If we put Labour in the lean Remain camp, and Tories in lean Leave, then Remainers outnumber Leavers, 49-44.