2019 U.S. Open Cup

4-3 final. OKC win.

Rowdies dragging at the end as it was getting close to 1AM eastern time.

 

Potential giant killing in Vegas where amateurs Orange County FC, with 3 players out cup-tied, lead the Lights 2-0.

Update: Lights with a pen, 1-2.

http://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=a664b90c-c0e2-4cc7-8778-d77b6166e586

 

Let's hope for an early wynalda exit

 

Just to avoid any confusion, NPSL's Orange County FC has already knocked USL's Orange County SC out of the Cup.

1-3 OCFC.

35 mins gone.

 

Penalties coming in Nashville - Charleston. 1-1 after 120.

 

These penalties were awful and hilarious.

Nashville saved twice, another off the bar, Charleston launched one into the stratosphere and should have had their winner saved.

Charleston goes through, 1-1, 3-0 on penalties.

 

The legendary Orange County S*C* and F*C* Derby.

 

The commentators at Colorado Springs think extra time ends at 115'.

Edit: They figured it out. Finally. Colorado Springs have a 16 year old keeper?

 

2-3 in Vegas in the 47th.

 

Rapids academy kid, '02. That was his 6th appearance of the season.

 

You posting about Vegas reminded me to check on Freddy Adu's status... from what I can tell, he has no professional affiliation. Is Adu's career truly over?

 

Sac Republic just got denied one helluva goal thanks to a bad back-hop and poor vision on behalf of the linesmen. <thunderous echo of a thousand facepalms>

 

This Vegas - OCFC game is wild, but the production is terrible. Missed the 4-3 almost entirely. Amateur hour.

 

Didn't miss that though. 5-3!

 

At least they switched back a split second before the ball actually hit the back of the net. That's more than I can say for FS1.

 

I hate to always complain about the announcers, but Warshaw and the other guy at the LV-OC game are making my ears bleed. Maybe my ears are the problem.

 

Gass has a bad voice for commentary and Warshaw thinks he's a prophet. They're not good.

 

This was a great game and of course a big upset. But good lord these guys were acting like this was the most shocking result in the history of sports.

 

The 3rd round update for 2019 of my ever popular* league ELO rankings.

*not at all true

Some basic info, for those who want it:
1. These rankings use all USOC games since 1996 to determine the relative strengths of the leagues. The names used below just represent the current names of leagues at that level. In reality the leagues have changed around a lot, and accounting for that is difficult. D2/D3 before 2011 are their own beast. What is now USLC (which was D3 in 2011 and is now D2) and NASL (which is now defunct and joined the Cup in 2012 at the D2 level) started fresh. NASL has now died, what was PDL is now USL2, there's a brand new USL1 this year. It's a mess, I've tried my best, and I'll never be happy with it.
2. There are bound to be mistakes back in the history, but the beauty of ELO rankings is that they are self-correcting over time, so the "actual strengths" probably aren't too far off from this right now, even with errors in older competitions.
3. The actual results used are as follows:
a. Game finishes in regulation with a result: goals scored
b. Game finishes after extra time with a result: goals scored
c. Game goes to penalty kicks: goals scored before the penalty kicks. The game is "recorded" as a tie.
4. A home team has its rating raised by 100, and the change in ratings for each of the teams is calculated based on the result of the game, and the relative difference between the two ratings. This means that currently, we would expect an NASL team hosting an MLS team to be slightly in favor of the MLS team, but not significantly so.
5. The average change in score for any individual game is about 7. This means that one league goes up by 7, and the other down by 7.
6. There is no way to account for the fact that many MLS teams play 'B' or 'C' sides in the first few rounds they participate. I can only base it on the teams fielded.
7. Dead leagues: D2 (pre-2011) - 1642, D3 (pre-2011) - 1560, NASL - 1582. These are only important in that ELO rankings are 0-sum, and those numbers can account for why the average of leagues today isn't 1500.

Round	MLS	USLC	USL1	USL2	NPSL	USASA/etc
2018 Final	1736	1553	1500	1345	1299	1283
2019 R1	1736	1553	1499	1345	1284	1299
2019 R2	1736	1568	1500	1333	1283	1295
2019 R3	1736	1556	1494	1333	1304	1294

A nice upset by the NPSL's Orange County FC marks the majority of the change in this round. They are the only non-USLC team to advance onwards to the 4th round. This means that the NPSL is unlikely to finish much lower in rating than they are now, because they'll be a big underdog, even if they're playing at home.

Given that the ratings right now are barely changed since the start of the tournament this year, I wouldn't expect much in the way of change once MLS teams come in either. The gap between MLS and USLC has been relatively stable the last few years, typically hanging out at just under 200 points, which is where it is now. You have to go back to the end of 2012 for the gap to be under 150 pts, and it only ended a year over 200 points once in that time.

It's just really hard to pull much more than 200 points away from your nearest competitor without higher ratings above you, because you're expected to win, even when on the road.

 

Jemal Johnson playing for Fresno. Anyone remember when he was an exciting young American getting a few Premier League appearances at 19 years old or so for Blackburn?

 

An upset so shocking that they won the hearts and minds of the entire United States, IIRC.

 

So the legend (in his own mind) Eric Wynalda was eliminated in the USOC before seeing a higher league team? Hahahahahahaha

 

If all of these games are being broadcast, what's the justification for not having video review? Sacramento scored, there's clear evidence of it, and we're on our way to extra time despite that. That's stupid.

 

Is it my imagination or will there be more MLS v MLS matches than usual this year in the first round with MLS teams?