What exactly failed Sean Johnson/Bill Hamid?

Neither one was very good technically/positionally; they were just young and athletic and therefore got overrated.

 

Neither Hamid or Johnson ever had to get any better to have a very nice, lucrative career. They have always been auto-starters for whatever MLS club they played for. They never felt the need to try themselves to be better. Hamid got the itch late, but it is so much harder when you have been comfortable for so long to then start at the bottom.

Hamid is basically the same GK he was at 19. Even today, MLS rosters rarely have a 2nd GK that could push a 1st GK.

 

I'm curious why you think Hamid is among the top in MLS.

 

Although Hamid did beat out and outperform Ousted (and there was significant improvement in goal), who is an MLS starter and who played in the Danish Superliga (and the Europa League for that matter).

 

I think Hamid signed back from Denmark with the guarantee he was going to start. Ousted was not good enough, or they wouldn't have lured him back. But you are right that at that moment he had another GK on the roster that could play. But probably not often in the prior 8 years.

 

One data point is that Hamid is currently WS MLS Best XI GK for the season with a 6.9 rating!

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/233/Tournaments/85/USA-Major-League-Soccer

 

...Except, considering he couldn't crack Denmark, I don't think you can claim Hamid could've started at a club in a league above Denmark's. That's what, Belgium, Russia, and the Big 4? Turkey?

I'm not sure he's ever had the fortitude to fight for a spot in a team that doesn't see him as a "number 1", which severely limits your options.

For all the schtick that Horvath gets for being a gee-golly-mister "soft" guy, it's Horvath who's struggled and succeeded in Europe. Not Hamid or Johnson.

 

They both aren’t international quality. I had high hopes for Hamid, met him a few times while I lived in DC. Awesome person.

 

So a couple things with these, it looks like WhoScored heavily favors save percentage for their overall rating. Obviously we know that 1) goalkeeping is more than saves and 2) saves vary heavily in difficulty.


Also WhoScored has Alisson at a 6.79 and Hamid at a 6.9 soooo... not sure about their formula but I wouldn't put too much stock into it if it can't figure out if Hamid is a top EPL gk or not.

As for saves and shutouts, I would encourage people to view these more as team stats. Again, shots vary in difficulty. Probably the best case for this is Indiana alum Trey Muse who had a ridiculous save percentage of 90.3% his freshman year. Of course he jumped on everyone's radar with such a hot stat line. His save percentage dropped to 78.3% his sophomore year. Did this mean he was significantly worse his sophomore year? Nope, in fact people (correctly) defended the massive drop to the fact that the stat isn't always so trustworthy. There's just a lot of noise with the stat and is why save percentages can jump and down from year-to-year for goalkeepers.

Shutouts are even more problematic for goalkeepers. It'd be like crediting a basketball team's points allowed stat to the center. He's certainly the closest to the basket, but bball fans realize this doesn't mean much. There are a number of goals in soccer where the gk had zero chance of making an impact. And also gks that get shelled are more likely to have higher GAAs but, again, there's a lot of noise.

Obviously I have a lot of bias with presenting this but I've been working on a "goals saved above replacement" stat for gks that takes a look at all areas of goalkeeping, not just shot stopping. It can be a little info overload, I know, but I'd be willing to dive into the finer points of the stat if anyone is interested.

 

Hamid has not "earned' anything from a depth position. He has had his shots. He didn't do well. His ceiling is limited at this point. He is what he is. Why put him on a roster and take camp training away from some younger player with higher upside potential?

 

I don't think many folks are clamoring for him. I have posted on multiple boards, including the DC United forum that I don't think he has the foot skills to be in the running. Considering that Steffen is 24 and Horvath is 23 (not to mention Gonzalez), our GKs are quite young. Now that said, I do think folks should earn call ups by actually getting quality professional minutes. If Steffen, Horvath, and Guzan (or Johnson for that matter) are called up, I definitely won't lose sleep that a keeper who played in a USMNT U20 tournament but who has no professional starts at a significant level didn't get called up. Some draft picks go directly to the starting lineup because they are that good (Adams, Pulisic, etc.), others go to the D league and need to work their way up based on performance.

 

Mattjo

But just what is the point to calling in Guzan, Johnson, Hamid? At this point I am not giving minutes to anybody not named Steffen or Horvath so I would much rather bring in a younger kid with some strong upside. Get them used to training with the NT. They aren't playing anyway.

This whole "earn a callup" is WAY overblown IMO.

 

Who has strong upside and why? What makes the individual worthy of a cap? how do you motivate other players knowing that spots are given to individuals who haven't even lined up in a professional match yet? Once you are vested in those individuals, does that mean you have to keep calling the same ones in to acclimate them to camp? what if they don't pan out and become busts as happens with a number of prospects? Have you wasted all that camp time based on a prediction rather than the reality of who is best? How do you motivate that player to play his best when he knows he will get invited to camp anyway?

That is my thought process at least. Not getting called in then prevent Zach Steffen from becoming the #1 at a young age. How did he do it? He proved it on the field at his club... the exact way every other team in the world seems to do it. Same as Ethan Horvath, etc. There are plenty of youth tournaments for them to remain connected with the NATs including the Olympics.

 

Take your pic who you want to call in for the third keeper. There just is no point ot it being Guzan, Hamid, or Johnson. I don't give a crap if they have "earned" it. They should no longer be in the picture if you are building toward 2022.

So bring in any of the other potentials. Everybody has their eye on who could be next to be a great keeper. It really doesn't matter yet which one you bring in next. But bring in someone. And then the next camp give someone else a shot.

If you think the Olympics is good enough training for them so be it. But you still haven't addressed the root problem I have. What is the point of calling in Guzan, Hamid, or Johnson? Do you see them in the future plans for the team? Or are you calling them in because nobody else has "earned" a callup yet?

 

You have competition for the top spot. Rotate a number of top prospects for the number three spot and hope at least one of them breaks through. I think it is much more likely to generate results than hoping Hamid or Johnson get better.

Both Steffen and Horvath could have been integrated sooner. Steffen had the talent and Horvath could have benefited from the experience. The rest of the teams in the world of multiple layers of professional leagues that offer mobility to its players. When our professional conforms to the rest of the world, I will start to buy that argument. Hamid hasn't earned it! He is a crap keeper in a crap league.

 

Earning a callup is how you end up with Michael Bradley still considered an auto-starter in 2019

 

Matjo

I am still waiting for your response. Just what is the value to the USMNT for bringing in Guzan, Hamid, or Johnson? Do you see them as part of the future?

 

That is just nonsense and I assume you know better.

Whoscored and Sofascore are two of the most respected rating services and they both have Hamid rated #1 in MLS. Here is Sofascore , at the bottom they have a GK tab and you can see that their top 5 are Hamid, Steffen, Guzan, Crepeau, and Vega.

https://www.sofascore.com/tournament/football/usa/mls/242

IMO, Hamid is Timmy Howard-lite. They both have world-class reflexes and will reaction-save shots in the box that many GKs will let in. They are both not great with crosses, both will cheat on correct positioning relying on their superior athleticism to bail them out. They are both below average playing the ball with their feet. Howard became a good distributor especially with the throw. Hamid is a poor distributor but getting better. There is a reason that Hamid was Howard's strong recommendation to JK as the #2

Anyone who saw Hamid v TFC last night understands the quality of performance he can bring to a team that is pressed back. He kept DC in that match and got a point against relentless pressure.

Some may prefer a more overall well rounded and consistent GK but Hamid, much like Howard, if in-form will keep the US in matches against superior opponents.

Your GK algorithms looks very promising. Good luck with your venture, I know how hard it is to get something new off the ground!

 

WS isn't a scouting system.

 

I would say start here and if you have questions after that you can post them here or DM me : ) But I have a longer write up on the site that goes into detail on the stat.

Idk if Howard-lite is entirely fair. Howard almost got 400 EPL starts and Hamid struggled in the Danish league. I understand the reflex/athletism aspects of their games but when every top league in the world had the option to pick up Hamid for free, they passed.

Sofascore / Whoscored rate Hamid > Alisson. Not trying to be an ass but idk how to get around that. Sounds like there are some big issues with how they come to player ratings if that is the case.

Big performance by Hamid last night. Can't get around that. But he's known for his one step forward/one step backward seasons. He threw a ball in the goal against Columbus earlier this year and - based off past performances - he's due for some more errors this season to even him back out. Also he's one of the worst distributors amongst MLS gks this year. Not sure he is really getting better.

Anyone can have anecdotal claims on goalkeepers. Like you say, some may want a more rounded out gk or this or that. Can't really get around that fact. So whatever anyone's opinion on him is just that and that's fair enough. But if he was substantially better than an average MLS goalkeeper, someone would have picked him up. It's not like clubs around the world are scorning Hamid to spite him. If a high level team could use his skills and have the resources to entice him to leave MLS, they would have brought him in by now.

Ty : ) I'm working on expanding it to USL goalkeepers but whew... there are a lot more there, ha.