2019 CONCACAF Champions League Thread

The lovely winter storm has kept Santos Laguna in Mexico through today with players arriving this evening from the sound of Long delay then have to play in what will likely be upper 20 degree weather 24 hours later.

 

If that's their reasoning, then they went about it the wrong way when they decided to start a first choice team against Herediano going into a match where they were going to use those same starters against DC which kinda defeats the purpose. And given that NYRB last season without anything near the drop in level experienced by TFC who have revealed a myriad of off the field issues that may have also played a part in their struggles, I don't think that a smart organization would dictate their strategy based off of what was supposedly the cause of TFC's fall.

I'm not sure what their reasoning was for their starters at DC, but if they were going to prioritize MLS then they'd have been better off using a mixed lineup in the return game than doing what they ended up doing. Usually it's better to either rotate lineups or go all in on one competition. Going all in on two competitions two matches in a row doesn't really lend itself to any coherent strategy that I can think of... they'd have stood a better chance imo of winning this match by resting players from the midweek than playing them; plus this also increases the odds of injuries rather than lowering them.

I think that this had more to do with using another match to tweak the team's chemistry and also the fact that it was on ESPN than anything.

 

I think it is this.

But what is SKC excuse for using the same line for the 3rd game in a row? Does PV want to wear down the team before June/July? What happened to the "2 teams for 2 competitions"?

 

Half measures are never a good idea when dealing with this type of competition and your regular season. This is especially true in Atlanta's case where you have numerous guys on there who are looking to improve their stock in order to play in Europe, so not only do you lower the chances of winning a league match that was likely already an unlikely result given the circumstances, you possibly affect the mood of the team if they perceive that the roster rotation ruined their chances at an international trophy given middling MLS' reputation abroad. I can only think that De Boer was looking to get closer to mid-season form. As for SKC, they may be thinking that they can weather a Panamanian side in the first leg with a mixed squad. That's actually more reasonable despite their previous round vs TFC.

 

grrrr

 

The forecast for tonight in east downtown Houston is for temps in the low 40s with wind chills in the 30s by the end of the game. That's actually warmer than it has been this morning here.

I know that isn't much compared to many parts of the U.S. but that's pretty cold for these parts, especially in March.

However, not unprecedented. On March 5, 2013, the Dynamo hosted Santos Laguna in the CCL in pretty much the same conditions. The low that night was 46F. Tonight will almost certainly be the coldest Dynamo home game ever.

 

So am I reading this right? Now that MLS teams have a chance to win, they are all tanking???

 

Playing your best XI in advance of a continental game is an interesting definition of tanking. It's dumb, but not "tanking."

If SKC throws out Kuzain and Busio tomorrow, then we can revisit.

 

Keeping in mind that we have two MLS teams hosting matches tonight, I come bearing stats.

MLS teams have faced non-MLS opponents in 39 knockout ties in the Champions League era. Below are the stats on whether the MLS team advanced based on what their home result was (advanced/total occurrences):

Loss: 0/5
Draw: 1/12
Win by 1: 2/10
Win by 2+: 12/12

Armed with this knowledge, you have your rooting targets for the night.

As always, please correct me if you spot a mistake in the data.

 

Loss: 0/3
Draw: 0/6
Win by 1: 1/7
Win by 2+: 5/5

 

Knockout rounds only. Not prelims.*

And yes, Toronto's QF v. Tigres was the 1-goal first-leg home win that resulted in advancement. The other 1-goal home win (second leg) that resulted in advancement was Houston v. Guastatoya.

* - I realize someone gets knocked out of those, but I mean knockouts in the traditional tournament sense.

 

Regular XI for the Red Bulls except at fullback, with Lade probably going at LB and Duncan in for Murillo at RB.

STARTING XI 🆚 Club Santos Laguna

Inside The 18 ➡️ https://t.co/c6efLa3gd6#SCCL2019 | #RBNY pic.twitter.com/mfetJc577T

— New York Red Bulls (@NewYorkRedBulls) March 6, 2019

 

RB nearly scored straight out of the gate. And now the game has settled in and is being played nearly entirely in the Santos defensive half.

 

We've seen this movie before, have we not?

 

Royer

 

This game is sloppier than a couple of drunk teens making out on the back of dads Cruz.

 

BWP

 

And this is why I have picked Santos to win this series. The Red Bulls should have 3 goals in this game … MINIMUM. They, instead, have none. You can't finish this poorly and win at the highest level, no matter how good the team is otherwise, technically and tactically. Prove me wrong, Red Bulls.

 

Same problem as last CCL against a Mexican side. RB are virtually dominating at home but keep scuffing opportunities at the doorstep. It would be a huge let off for Santos if like Chivas they aren't forced to be at a deficit from their road performance.

 

Duncan needs to stop ********ing around. He isn't cute, trying to dribble out of the back as the last man, again and again.

 

Duncan needs to make better decisions. He's a raw talent but very green. Davis has to be more accurate with his balls over the top. And all RB players need to be more poised in front of net.

 

Forget about Mexican sides. RB should have had 12 goals in the last round against Guastatoya. They got 5. The finishing is bad, relative to the chances they create, against pretty much every team that is even half-decent.

 

And there you go. Santos gets a chance … and scores.