Italy v Germany v England in UEFA Coefficient Rankings(R)

So Spain and England are consistently more lucky than Italy, even over as large a sample size as ten seasons' results?

 

Spain has always had a number of great teams in the past. In fact I feel they are starting to downgrade a bit now, but not my much. They are clearly the league with the strongest teams overall in the top half at least.

England is a league with a number of teams that often shift around by who is the best team. If you notice, every season the best team in England appears to be a different team.

Italy is a league that used to be in shambles for a long time until 2012-13 season and started to get better every year. 2015-16 was a very unlucky season for them due to all the teams getting extremely tough draws. Other than that, they have done fairly well. However unlike England, the top teams appear to be pretty consistent. Juventus has always been their best team in the past 7 seasons at least. Napoli and Roma have been shifting as their second and third best teams in the past recent seasons. Then their is usually a different mid-table team that surprises every season and finishes in the top half.

There are many things you need to look at when it comes to the coefficients. First of all the draws that every team get. Yes luck plays a big role in this. England was a little unlucky in 2014-15 and 2016-17 honestly. Italy was extremely unlucky in 2015-16. The Europa League also plays a big factor in this and it often comes down to teams that take it seriously and teams that tank the tournament. In the past few seasons, Many Top Italian teams often tanked the Europa League due to trying to catch Juventus for the Scudetto.

English teams on the other hand do not seem to tank the Europa League as much, although with that saying much of the English teams that are in the EL knockouts, by that time they are quite far out from the title race in the EPL.

We will see what happens this season. It appears that Germany was the country that appears to be unlucky in the draws for knockouts. England and Italy both seem to have comparable luck this time around for Round of 16 and Round of 32 in EL at least. Juventus and Liverpool got a little unlucky but both should make it through at the end after hard fights.

 

Luck can play a big role in one team's coefficient for one given season. But we are talking about the outcome of 7 teams across 5 seasons. That's 35 European seasons collectively.

Its like if someone says "<Team X> was so unlucky with the group stage draw this season"
A perfectly reasonable assessment.

Another statement "<Team X> was so unlucky with the group stage draw these past 3 seasons"
hmm... still a potentially fair statement, although its already starting to come across a bit whingy.

"<Team X> has been so unlucky in these past 35 group-stage draws"
We're now talking complete nonsense.

 

I think you misunderstood what I was trying to say. What I meant is that the EPL teams got lucky with draws in only 2 seasons. The Serie A did too in other seasons. However regarding the coefficients before I explained it, I thought the whole conversation was who produces the best teams NOW THIS SEASON. Not in the past.

2013-14: England definitely had the superior teams.
2014-15: Italy was somewhat superior, but England were unlucky with some of the draws.
2015-16: Italy's top team was likely superior to all and got unlucky. However other than that England had better teams than Italy after Juventus.
2016-17: Both England and Italy were pretty equal. Again Italy's top team was better, but England's mid table teams were superior to Italy's. Italy had bad luck in Europa League though.
2017-18: Also I felt both were pretty equal but Italy did not have the best luck with the draws. Although England did have the slight edge because Italy's mid table teams were non-existent past the quarterfinals in Europa.
2018-19: We will find out.

Its not all luck. But also I feel that some of this is unfair judgement as well because a number of teams often decide to tank the Europa League (Something I wish No Team ever did). The other thing that can play into part is injuries as well.

 

To be more clear, Germany would start the season ahead. But ultimately that is meaningless unless they can keep the lead to the end of next season.

 

Well currently its looking better for Italian teams though.

Dortmund is all but out. Schalke will likely be out too considering they face Manchester City. Bayern vs Liverpool is 50-50.

Leverkusen and Frankfurt are 50-50. Lazio is probably out. Napoli and Inter should progress.

 

I would say both Leverkusen and Frankfurt have much better odds than that. Good first leg results.

 

Well Frankfurt is likely going through now that they are 2-0 up. Leverkusen I really think is 50-50.

 

I hate to say it but I'm afraid Juventus might be out. They definitely could come up with something spectacular but its hard to really say. I'd say Juventus has a 35% chance of advancing.

 

Juve & Italian sides can't beat Spanish teams. Allegri set up his side not to lose, didn't react, and got battered in the 2hd half.

 

Hmm I wouldn't say that. It all depends on the team. Juventus knocked out Real and Barcelona previously. It really all depends on who plays who.

 

Serie A have a winning record vs EPL over the last 10 years. Juve are nearly unbeaten vs them.

Yes Serie A has won series vs Spanish teams, but the record vs them is still a losing one. Even at an international level.

Unless Juve can turn it around, they will have been KOed in the CL by Bayern (2013), Barca (2015), Pep's Bayern (2016), Real (2017), Real (2018), & now it could be Atleti. In Juve's dominant domestic cycle, these are the teams that have prevented them from winning CL.

Obviously the truth is that all other top leagues and teams have a losing record vs Spanish clubs over the last decade.

 

Yeah I am well aware of that. Although honestly for some reason, I expected either Roma or Juventus to turn it around.

For Juventus, what we need is an early goal. Atletico can get too aggressive at times and I'd say there is a 50% chance they could get someone sent off. They almost had someone sent off in the first leg. Any kind of penalty or free kick in a dangerous position, we need to take advantage of. I guarantee we will get at least something within the first 30 min. If we can get that early goal, then getting back into the game shouldn't be too hard at all. If we can level 2-0 up, all we need to do is make sure we don't concede any away goals which will definitely not be easy. This is all easier said than done. What I am thinking is if we find a way to go 2-0, then Atletico will start to push for an away goal which will leave some open space in the back for us to get a third. However, with all that saying our defense needs to have the game of their lives and be spot on.

Something tells me that we are definitely capable of still winning this and doing what is needed, but we will somehow bottle it towards the end.

 

Allegri has faced Atletico three times now with Juve.

1-0 L
0-0 T
2-0 L

Allegri's Juve have yet to score vs Atleti and now they will need to do so three times to advance. It's possible, but very very unlikely.

Maybe if Juve were behind vs an attacking side, they could open their opponent up. Unfortunately, Atletico are the best defense in Europe.

Atleti were the worst possible draw for a team that relies on individual talent to score rather than a coordinated style of attack.

 

Inter Milan slightly but it will be very close. If Inter is serious and is at its best, then they will go through. However, if Inter slip up and make silly mistakes, than it might cost them and send Eintracht Frankfurt through.

I'd give Inter about a 58% chance.

 

35%? Whoa, that's up there.

 

Yeah thats about right.

 

Going back to the Group Stage, Atletico hasn't allowed a goal in their last 4 CL games. I wonder what club in a top league has the most consecutive seasons allowing under 1 goal per game. I'm talking about ever, not a streak that must be active. Atletico has allowed 17 in 25, and are likely to allow under 1 goal per game for the seventh consecutive season. 2014-2015 was the only one of those that they didn't allow the fewest goals in La Liga. I wonder how many people know that Valencia (21) and Getafe (22) have allowed fewer goals than Barcelona. While Slovenia isn't an elite national team, how can Jan Oblak not be among the best goalkeepers? In the last 253 La Liga games in six complete seasons and 25 games this season, Atletico allowed 170, Barcelona allowed 214, and Real allowed 267.

 

If you look at all of Juve's home matches this season they have 3 three-goal victories. That's not a small number (although still less than 35%), but they were all against feeble opposition (the 19th and 20th-place teams in Serie A, and Young Boys of Bern).

 

Yes but the UCL is a completely different story. And also they don't need to win 3-0. A 2-0 win victory could do it and take it to extra time and maybe penalties. Also its hard to compare it with previous results, because this is the first do or die match for Juventus. The rest they didn't need to win by 3 goals. I believe that in a do or die match, Juventus can do it with a masterclass performance.

Don't forget that Dortmund did beat Atletico 4-0 in the group stage. Atletico are not as strong away from home as they are at home.

 

Atletico's defensive record has really been astonishing. As a Juve fan, that was the one team I did not want to face besides Barca (obviously for different reasons) in this competition. To think that the only team to have KO Simeone's Atleti in Europe over this stretch of years has been Real.

The way their two banks of four and front two move to close spaces is so so impressive.

 

The only hope Juve have is if Alteti have a repeat of Dortmund away from earlier in this CL campaign especially with Godin, Partey, and Costa out for the return leg.

Even if they do, I'm not confident that Juve can do the job because they are getting outplayed by the likes of Bologna, Atalanta, Lazio etc. Juve just look physically diminished.