Sigh....it’s 2018 and look at the November *2018* polls.... As far as running for President, the waters are so poisoned...it’s likely not even realistic. Now if we can keep that HRC TF away! Either of these prospects will probably give the Don a 2nd term....
Random thoughts after reading about 75 posts; If young POC are not joining the democratic party, it's probably because they aren't joining any party at all. Both parties suck, but one sucks less. I just moved to a state that does not register by party (VA) to one that does (LA). I mainly vote for dems, but I registered as an independent because I am not that thrilled with the party. The only thing I know about Kamala Harris is her idea to give money away, which I think is really bad policy. No more damn tax cuts and credits, the government is going broke. If you want poor people to have more money, raise the minimum wage. I am interested to hear whether she has any good ideas, but that is not one. I will not commit to voting for the democratic nominee. As I noted above, I live in Louisiana now, where the dem is certain to lose. If they nominate somebody horrible like Sanders, I will vote for Mickey Mouse or some third party candidate to register my disappointment. In the extremely unlikely event that the race is close in LA, I would vote for whatever dem is on the ballot.
Kamala needs to win white votes, white folk still make the great majority of Democrat votes, specifically white women. Kamala and Booker could split the black vote giving a chance to a Beto type. So far I like Booker the most, but the energized left wing is not a fan of his, so he may be out by the time the primaries rolled into Illinois.
Trump won with bullshit and no substance, maybe that is what the people like, details of how to govern is boring, yelling out-loud against Mexicans or the 1% seems to excite voters more. I do not know.
He may do better this time, specially with young Latinos and young blacks. By the time the primaries were coming to a close, he was doing better amount young blacks. Clinton had the name recognizion in the South, he had the Obamas behind her, so she was making sure that what happened to her in 2008 vs Obama did not happen again, this time it will be different, Sanders has been working on the black vote, many progressives POC back him (specially some of the ones that came in this past election). https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk...der-younger-blacks-democratic-primary-n580996 https://www.chicagotribune.com/news...rnie-sanders-black-voters-20170912-story.html https://apnews.com/6a937194f7ff4ed2a74635257a19db90 I (a "wall street Democrat") still fear the Sanders.
First of all, Bernie ran poorly with older POC. I know the pro Clinton camp likes to ignore this distinction. The problem for Bernie was that not enough younger POC come out to vote in primaries. Another factor to consider is that Clinton was a unique candidate when it came to POC. First of all she came out of Arkansas politics, so her name carried that Southern credibility. And her latter career was in Washington and New York, so she also had that urban big city credibility. Making assumptions on how Bernie would do depends on what he's up against (again, going back to my original point that it's premature to make predictions because we have no idea). For example Bernie going up against someone like Amy Klobuchar or John Kerry, you could expect him to do better than 2016 with POC. If he goes up against Kamala Harris or Cory Booker, he may do even worse than 2016. The other factor is cannibalization. If somehow you end up with a field where the POC vote is cannibalizing itself, you could see Bernie pick off some early states with just around 25% of the vote. One advantage that Bernie has is that he already has a tested campaign machine at his disposal. He has a volunteer network. He has names and addresses of tons of people who donated to him before. Sure, not all those people will come around for another run, but it's more of a head start than any of the others, except maybe Biden. Again, I'm not predicting a Bernie success, or even advocating for a Bernie success. At this point I don't even think he'll run. I'm just making the case for why you shouldn't rule him out in case he does. If I had my way, I wouldn't even have Bernie in the race. This would be the field, the first two I'm including because they're already declared : John Delaney Richard Ojeda Michael Bennet Cory Booker Pete Buttigieg Bob Casey Tulsi Gabbard Eric Garcetti Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris Amy Klobuchar Martin O'Malley Beto O'Rourke Tim Ryan Eric Swalwell
So the consensus seems to be that Joe Kennedy III is serious about not running--I don't even see him being mentioned in the sort of baseless hypotheticals like the "Biden/Romney 3rd Party" thing that was floating around a few days ago. Not that I care, but a few months ago I would have guessed that there would be somebody advocating for him, but I've seen nothing. Just an observation.
I didn't see this being discussed here: Trump launches unprecedented reelection machine More than ever, it truly is "Trump's party" now, it seems.
Makes sense to me. He's only 38, he has two kids under the age of 3, he's about to be a member of the House majority, and the candidate from Massachusetts angle is dominated by Elizabeth Warren. If I were advising him, I would encourage him to stay out of this presidential cycle, and to not be super present throughout it. There's a decent chance that a Democrat wins, and if that happens, there's a VERY good chance that Warren is part of that cabinet. That opens a Senate seat, which he would have the inside track for. Ed Markey is also up for re-election in 2020; I don't know if he has declared. Either way, I think there's a good chance that a MA Senate seat opens soon. Besides that, the historical record of sitting representatives running for President is beyond awful. Garfield is the only one to have successfully done it.
I'm not at all surprised he's sitting it out--he's actually given interviews where he's stated he's not at all interested--just that given we're in a climate where a fact-free article surmising a Biden/Romney ticket gets traction, there's been not a bit of "what about that guy?" I've heard.
It figures that the only place I hear any Joe Kennedy III for president speculation is on Big Soccer.
The invisible primary is in high gear on the Dem side, with Bernie Bros v Beto as the featured bout so far. The War on Beto O’Rourke is being waged by Bernie-world. With @aseitzwald https://t.co/4NJBiRVDRZ— Jonathan Allen (@jonallendc) December 23, 2018 Right now I think they're two of the top four (Biden & Harris being the others), but as we all know, things can change. We're just 56 weeks away from primary season!
The Bernie Bros are going full speed against Beto. David Sirota wrote a scathing article in the Guardian attacking him 2 days ago. Not sure as he did in the piece, comparing Beto to a new Obama is such a bad thing though in Democratic circles.
It's bad in progressive circles, and that's what Bernie's folks are worried about. If Beto strips even part of the young, enthusiastic, far left from Bernie, it's done.
I don’t think it’s helpful to call a discussion of Beto's damning voting record an attack. It smells like an attempt to discredit people who wish to be fully informed. Good luck making people shut up when we want to know the truth. This won’t go away.— Patricia Dowling (@ketchmeifucan) December 25, 2018 Attack is hyperbole. People are pointing out problematic votes, and disingenuous pledges, and the result is a centrist Dogpile. I donated to Beto. I like him. But I’m not going to shut up because he’s been chosen for a 2020 Coronation.#MerryChrismas 🎄— Lauren (@frkmgnt1) December 25, 2018