I saw the score crawl on the bottom of an ESPN broadcast the other day and was reminded, "Oh yeah, European soccer is happening." Clearly I am not as dialed in as I used to be in younger years. That said, to the extent it's of interest to anyone, I did an overview of how Portugal is doing in Europe, and the answer is: surprisingly well. One positive way to look at it is: They're fifth in Europe overall, ahead of both France and Russia by nearly a point. This is due in large part to having one fewer team in the coefficient denominator (dinged to five from six), and also to Porto having a bang-ass time in the Champs League. And Russia, for which I have held a lifelong antipathy thanks to growing up at the tail end of the cold war, may be on the brink of a shitbag season in Europe. How's it taste, commies?? Let us all hope that both their CL teams lose the next game, which would eliminate them from all European comps. In the EL, two of their teams are group top, but one is bottom so they could end up with only 2/6 teams in Europe after final match day and that would be delicious. But enough ... what's Russian for schadenfreude? Portugal, despite qualifying only 3/5 teams, is looking good. --Porto is confirmed group top and that gives them some shot at a favorable matchup in the R16 of the CL (plus a lock for bonus points for qualifying). Let us hope for more points from them when they play Galatasaray in Turkey (though important also that Lokomotiv loses as well so the Russian team stays fourth). --Benfica is already eliminated from the CL but locked into a third place EL spot, and not doing terribly despite just getting embarrassed by Bayern in Germany. They have a shot to get 7 points with a home win against group bottom, pointless AEK in the final game. Not a bad outcome, plus a shot to go farther in the EL. Certainly better than last year's record-settingly putrescent outcome. --Sporting is second in their EL group, but the group included Arsenal, and SCP could garner a total of 13 points in the group with a home win over Vorskla (Ukraine), plus is already a lock to advance to the next round. So good results + lower denominator = not bad! Of course, if Russia scrapes 4 teams into the next round, and they do well, they could easily pass us, not to mention France, but it's nice to be a bit ahead after so many years of running behind those two.
Well holy crap, look at that: I sit out for a year and all of a sudden Portuguese teams have a resurgence in Europe. Or kind of: So far, it's been a very good week in the Champs League. Two games, two wins (Galatasaray 2:3 Porto, Benfica 1:0 AEK). Neither of these wins was consequential; Porto had already sewed up the top group spot, and Benfica was locked into third. But they got max points and thereby added to the UEFA Coefficient. Also great news is that both Russian teams are now out of European competition after finishing group bottom. With all that, Portugal now leads Russia this year by 1.35 points. That margin could expand depending on today's EL results. Sporting is locked into group second but could (likely should) pick up three points. The thing to watch is how many Russian teams advance. Zenit is confirmed as group top, but Spartak is dead last and if they lose at Villarreal will stay there (though if they win they could still qualify). And Krasnodar is playing at Sevilla; not an easy feat and if they lose while Liege wins, they could be out as well. So in theory Russia could be left with only one team, opening the door for Portugal to make up more ground.
The great conversation with no one but himself continued... Spectacular week for Portuguese teams, as Sporting defeats some Cyrillic mouthful from Ukraine 3-0 at the Alvalade. Three games, three wins, and 1.2 sweet sweet UEFA points. Russia, by contrast, shat ye olde bed: of three games today, they lost all damn three. This eliminated Spartak from Europe, while Krasnodar squeaked by thanks to Brugge not being able to beat their mid-table Superlig foe in Turkey. So Russia scrapes two teams into the Europa League R32, none in the Champs league. That makes the spread vs Russia 1.75 points: Portugal on 8.5, Russia 6.75. Looking good, but lots of European soccer left to play, and to drive home the advantage at least two of Portugal's three teams will need to have a deep run in the elims. From the form they've showed so far, that is entirely plausible. Draw out Monday. No easy task for Porto ahead: Three of the seven possible R16 opponents they could draw are the three English teams. I'd much prefer to see them go up against Lyon, Ajax or Roma.
Keep up the good work. I read your posts so it isn't in vain. What happens if we catch the Russians? Two automatic UCL spots, one qualifier, two UEL spots, one qualifier?
I am rusty so would have to check but that sounds like what we had when we were in 5th. 6th may not be different, which is where we'd be if we leapfrogged the Commies. I will check and confirm or deny. Also there is of course the irony that if we get more team in Europe we may do worse in the coefficient race because we may not have the depth of Russia or France. We have 3-4 teams that could do well in any given year, mainly the big 3 and once upon a time also Braga (well also Boavista if you want to go way back). So the sixth team from our Liga may well just be dead weight that will increase the denominator but not the numerator. So while there is national pride at stake in leapfrogging our good good friends from the former Soviet Union, there's also a practical downside.
Oh and I almost forgot--CL and EL draws are out: Champs league R16: AS Roma v. FC Porto. Tough match up, but what do you expect in the CL R16? Could have been worse for sure. With the form Porto's been in they can certainly win if they execute to their max potential. Europa League R32: Galatasaray v. Benfica. I did not know 3d place CL teams could face each other, but there you go. Tricky tie against perennial Turkish powerhouse, esp with having to travel far away to a notoriously hostile venue. Then again, Porto beat them home and away in the CL group stage; and Benfica beat AEK home and away in the CL group stage as well, so that at least bespeaks both Galatasaray's fallibility and Benfica's competence when traveling to (nearly) the near East. Europa League R32: Villarreal v. Sporting CF. Another tough draw, but when you look at the Europa League there are some really good teams in there and no clear chumps. Villarreal topped their group but they are also sucking in La Liga this year, 17th overall, so no invincibles by any stretch. Three tough ties, I think realistically you'd have to say 2 of 3 teams advancing would be a good outcome (esp if one of the 2 were Porto). Three is a tall order but possible. Any thing less than 2/3 would be a real disappointment.
Keep up the good posts man! As for the draw I have a feeling Porto will surprise Roma. As for EL, it will be tough against a La Liga team but Sporting have been scoring a lot lately and maybe with some impact signings in January we could do well. Benfica seems intent on keeping Vitoria who sucks in Europe and may struggle against a side who lost to Porto but played better in my opinion.
Alas, yesterday was not a banner day: AS Roma 2-1 FC Porto This is not a good result but not a terrible one either (for a terrible one, consider Man U's 0-2 home loss to PSG). It simply means that we have to better Roma's result in the return leg--beat them by more than one goal, or even a 1-0 win would do it thanks to the away goal. But Porto now needs to win to advance, that much is clear.
Lets see what will happen today, Benfica is in good form but a trip to Galatasaray is always difficult, and Sporting plays at home to Villareal who have been woeful in La Liga so they might not have anything to lose in Europe.
Benfica 2-1 Galatasaray in Turkey. Florentino was really good, if he continues to progress he can become one hell of a DM
Yeah not a great week. 1W-0D-2L. Tricky situation looking forward: --Benfica is in pole position re Galatasaray, which is awesome, it's hard to get a result in Turkey especially in that insane stadium in Istanbul. --Porto didn't do great but UEFA.com had a good stat showing that in knockout rounds, teams that lose the first leg away 1-2 end up winning about half the time. So that one is a coin flip. --Sporting was clearly the most disappointing result, especially after they played so well in the group stage. That early goal really killed them. But hey, it's not over yet--if they can nab an early away goal in the return leg it's all to play for.
And we actually gained ground against Russia, who has only two teams left in Europe. Krasnodar drew at home to Leverkusen; Zenit lost away to Fenerbahce. Now our lead over Russia this year is almost two points, and could really increase if their two teams don't advance and a couple of ours do.
Well that sux. I didn't see the games, just the results: Villarreal 1-1 Sporting Benfica 0-0 Galatasaray Meh. Couple points, Sporting out, Benfica through. Also not great, Russia's two teams left in Europe won yesterday with wins so they got four points plus have two teams still in the mix, and Portugal needs Porto to go through to keep up.
Awesome 3-1 (AET) win for Porto today. Hard to overstate how important this win was to Portugal's status in Europe: (1) got 2 points for the win; (2) additional bonus points for making the Quarters; (3) chance to rack up future points in upcoming rounds. Also, with PSG's surprising home loss to ManU, France is down to two teams in Europe (and one is Lyon who will likely be out soon). So with 9.9 points, Portugal sits ahead of Russia by almost 2.5 full points, and is only .325 behind France. Still need Benfica and Porto to represent in future rounds, but there is a real chance here to make up ground on both Russia and France. Very important for Benfica to get a good start by taking it to Dinamo Zagreb tomorrow, keep racking up the points.
Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 SL Benfica Damn. Well there's a lot to play for in the home leg. Big win by Benfica puts them through. But they can't depend on any away goals and have to be very careful of conceding to Dinamo in the next leg. Not a good outcome, but not a total disaster either. Good news: Both Russian teams lost. Bad news: Rennes (France) pummeled Arsenal 3-1.
Zenit result was surprising. Both Russian teams could go out. Benfica should still make it, and although Arsenal result was bad, long term it might be good if Benfica progress and get Rennes.
Plus if they were to get to the final they would only lose it as the 100 year curse has not run out yet
Yeah I know a lot of this is squad rivalry/loyalty but Benfica's suck-ass results in Europe have only been recent. This year's been all right on balance, and back in the early 2010s they were regularly saving our UEFA coefficient by getting deep into the Europa League (two finals and one semi appearance IIRC). But I think they'll still win the tie v Dinamo. They just gave themselves a hill to climb with this result is all.
@um_chili Two portuguese teams in the quarter finals of CL and EL and no Russian teams, how does this affect our ranking?
Brilliant win by Benfica today, 3-0 over Dinamo AET. I haven't been able to see the goals but apparently they were all great longer-range strikes. In terms of @fdasilva's question, the news was all good this week: all French and Russian teams lost and are out of Europe. This means we will make up at least three points on Russia, since they are at 7.583 and Portugal is at 10.5. If we keep piling on the points we can make the margin greater. The three points about cut in half the deficit to Russia that they built up by having more UEFA points than portugal for the past half-decade. France is still a shade ahead at 10.583 but pretty much any more points will mean Portugal overtakes them. That's cool and means we will probably end up fifth in Europe but overtaking France is likely not feasible anytime soon because they are 11 points ahead of Portugal overall. Draw tomorrow will be key. No easy teams left in either tournament, but Porto and Benfica both in good form so they still stand a good chance of getting more points and advancing.
Quarterfinal draws are in Champs League: Liverpool v. Porto --Odds of getting an English team, with four of them in the eight-team draw, were more than 50% so this is not surprising. No real underdogs in the draw except for maybe Ajax, so the opponent was always going to be tough. Liverpool just advanced by eviscerating Bayern Munich 3-1 in Germany, so they are clearly no slouch. Going to be a tough match. Key is going to be getting a good result in the first leg in Portugal. Europa League: Benfica v. Frankfurt. --I have no sense of Frankfurt, though from poking around it seems that ironically their top goalscorer, Luka Jovic, is on loan from .... Benfica. They currently sit fifth in the Bundesliga; not shabby at all. Also, Portugal does not do great against German teams in Europe generally but those kinds of historical facts don't matter a ton IMO. There were certainly clubs with bigger reps in the draw that we avoided, though there too rep doesn't mean much in any given match compared to current form and quality.