Very interesting that the Home Nations are letting a GB team for the women but not for the men... Odd agreement to make, but I guess most of us here in WoSoLand won't complain!
There is too much ago in the men's game while it is for the greater good of the players for the women's game regarding Team GB. As one of my friend remarked Kim Little could eliminate Kim Little from the Olympics...
I made a thread, in case it happens: Great Britain team in 2020? - https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/great-britain-team-in-2020.2087450/ Good subforum, that. I'm really looking forward to the "2016 Olympic Women's Soccer Tournament"
Good news for @TheMatildas, @jfa_nadeshiko, Steel Roses @ChinaWFT, Taeguk Nangja @theKFA & Chaba Kaew @FAThailand ... all qualified for @FIFAWWC 2019, and all will receive a US$500K contribution from @theafcdotcom, decided by ExCo last week 👍🏼⚽️🤩 #womensfootball— moya dodd (@moyadodd) October 2, 2018
The seeding for the World Cup draw will be based on the FIFA ranking published on the 7th of December As of today. The top seeds would be the FIFA top 6 A1 France plus USA, Germany, England, Canada, Australia. Japan are 31 pts behind Australia, with Brazil, Sweden and Netherlands in the chasing pack
Japan can no longer get points right (well only friendly games vs qualifying points for European teams and Concacaf teams).
Wrong - you can still earn (or lose) points from Friendlies, just generally not as many as you can from "competitive" matches. @blissett asked essentially the same question over in the rankings thread, and I mapped out what Japan needs to happen for them to make up the gap. TL;DR is it's possible for them to bump Australia, but solidly not very likely.
I guess our only chance is having Chile upset Australia at their home in one of the friendly matches in November!
The fight by China and Korea with Norway (or Denmark) to get into pot 2 may be intresting... Pot 1 USA 2114 Germany 2060 England 2034 France 2033 Canada 2014 Australia 2012 Pot 2 Japan 1981 Brazil 1973 Sweden 1964 Netherlands (assumption) 1963 Spain 1938 Norway 1907 Pot 3 Korea Republic 1880 China 1876 *(Denmark) 1864 Italy 1855 *(Switzerland) 1840 Scotland 1811 New Zealand 1810 *(Belgium) 1797 Mexico (assumption) 1732 If Netherlands qualify then Korea/China would need for Norway to drop a lot of points... would Denmark qualify then said Asian teams basically are in need to win pair of friendlies against top-10 teams to match Denmark wins. If it's Switzerland or Belgium with last WWC ticket then one of Asian teams is likely to get into pot 2 with other still having some chances as well...
Interesting side note: the gap between CHN and NOR is the same as the gap between JPN and AUS! CHN, though, just had two wins in their home invitational friendly tournament (though dropped points in the draw to POR) and has three very winnable matches coming up in November - though the question would become if they can win by enough to pick up points in the first place!
No VAR at the World Cup. Someone spoke to FIFA at the Best ceremony and .... there are not enough women referee who trained for VAR. The pool of decent referee is small already, so they would need to use crap ones to video watch...
I can't really say that I am sad for that: I really dislike interruptions for the VAR. Sure, there could be mistakes, but most of the ones happening in the women's game would need more raising up the level of the "human" refs than additional technology: competent officiating could make up for most of them, and in my opinion the effort has to be put there.
Let's assume for a moment the ranking stays as-is on Dec. 7th. FIFA would allow 3 teams from UEFA before awarding allowing seeding for 2 CONCACAF or 2 AFC teams in Pot 1. My thoughts: USA, Germany, England, France, Australia, Brazil. The order would be: France, England, Brazil, USA, Australia, Germany I haven't gone in depth yet for how FIFA want to avoid top teams meeting too soon, but I think this would allow some top teams to not meet until the quarters. Should we start a WWC 2019 Draw Prediction thread?
I wouldn't be so sure about the 3 UEFA thing... Last time they bumped #7 Brazil ahead of both #6 England and #5 Sweden for balance. That said, England is #3 this time, so it'd be a bigger stretch than in the past to seed #7 Japan (or #8 Brazil) instead. But since the MWC has gone to pure ranking for seeding *all* pots, I wouldn't be surprised if they did so for the WWC too, at least for the first pot and probably for the others. (But on that note, if all five top nations were from UEFA - or all five not from UEFA - they should be seeded irrespective of quotas.) And there's no order within pots, so I'm not sure what you're saying with your second paragraph. Theoretically, no top teams will ever meet before the quarterfinals, but with 6 seeded teams and only 4 seminfinal spots, you're guaranteed to get seeded teams meeting up in the quarterfinals (unless there are upsets in either the group stage or in the R16). Last cycle, they pre-assigned the groups for the six seeded teams such that, if each seeded team won their group, USA and CAN had "easy" paths to the semis while you expected FRA-GER and BRA-JPN in the quarterfinals. (AUS ended up spoiling BRA's appearance.) They were criticized for pre-assigning groups like that, so I'm expecting them to do a real draw for the seeded teams this year, like they do for the MWC. At this point, we already know that the winners of C/E and B/F are expected to be the quarterfinal seeded matchups. Doing draw prediction is kinda silly since it's all essentially chance. Bracket prediction is worthwhile though.
POT A: France(4), USA(1), Germany(2), England(3), Canada(5), Australia(6). POT B: Japan(7), Brazil(8), Sweden(9), Netherlands(10), Spain(12), Norway(13). POT C: South Korea(14), China(15), Italy(17), Scotland(19), New Zealand(20), Thailand(28). POT D: 3 CAF qualifiers, Jamaica(64), Panama(66) or Argentina(37), Chile(39).
I don't know if there's a method to predicting the groups but there's always a pattern that we either get New Zealand or Australia, Nigeria or another equally ranked African nation, and either North Korea or South Korea in our group.
FIFA doesn't change for criticism, they will for illegal activities. Thus, I assume they will continue business as usual for this WWC as the others, basically planning to maximize chances of certain teams playing in certain cities and playing a "team type" in order to create favorable match-ups at the QFs. They do this to maximize fan spending for hotels and travel, TV time spend and sponsorship. FIFA are not altruistic in wanting to provide an honorable Top Ranked are Seeded and a completely random draw. The women's game is still being built and FIFA need to find every way possible to maximize profit to be able to continue to grow the game. Now, the USA's group of death draw in 2015 - that was bound to occur - in a way - since the field was expanded and they pegged the US to be in certain cities, thus taking much of the randomness out of it. They knew the US fans would buy tickets for games beyond group stage so it didn't matter much if the US didn't make it past group or QF. FYI, the US has only had 6 different opponents in their group since 1999: Swe, N Korea, Nigeria, Denmark, Australia, Colombia. If that's not planned I don't know what is. In 2015 FIFA oops'd when AUS came 2nd in in grp D and SWE 3rd. This created a path that "allowed" Germany to knock off 2 of the top 5 ranked teams on the way to the QFs (Swe and Fra). Some top teams have to suffer loses on the big stage - like this past MWC - and you can't have the top 8 teams in the world at the QFs, but you can plan as much as possible to make that occur. We know the women are not the big draw like the men (this isn't opinion, it's reality), thus FIFA doesn't give them benefits such as VAR, real grass, and a seemingly random draw - and I think they should have all of that to equal the men's game. The last 5 draws were very predictable, if not laughably so. There is no reason to believe that FIFA will change their minds to have a completely random draw with the top 5 teams and France as seeds. And, yes, it's fun to speculate on the draw itself since it seems to have the same chance of success as backet prediction with FIFA's "fair play" draws. Plus, it leads to suggesting where teams might play, what their path is and who they have to go through and is the precursor to bracket prediction.
One thing you're forgetting is that, much moreso than those three "slots" you mentioned, (especially since we've never drawn NZL or SKorea,) the USA almost always got Sweden or Denmark in their group. Remember that every group gets at least one UEFA team! And it's just been USA's luck that it's almost always been one of those two out of all the UEFA possibilities. Similarly, it's been just luck than we usually drew DPK out of the other available AFC teams. 91 - Brazil/Japan/Sweden 95 - China/AUS/Denmark 99 - Nigeria/DPK/Denmark 03 - Nigeria/DPK/Sweden 07 - Nigeria/DPK/Sweden 11 - Colombia/DPK/Sweden 15 - Nigeria/AUS/Sweden That's 5x Sweden, 4x DPK, and 4x Nigeria. Only 2x AUS and 2x Denmark. I think, now that we've expanded to 24 teams, that pattern should start to break down, since there are now more teams to pick from and since it was largely a function of the fact that CONCACAF nations not named USA were always paired with another confederation to make one of the draw pots. That is, previously, the "always mix confederations" thing all but guaranteed an African and an Asian opponent for the USWNT - in fact, the USWNT has literally always faced an Asian opponent - and in most years you had one of two choices from those confeds, so it was a coin flip for getting Nigeria and DPK. Four coin flips going the same way in a row is definitely interesting but not unreasonable. If you look at the mixing in all the other groups, you can see randomness has always been working pretty well. (Still, cursed luck in 15 still got us Nigeria and Sweden...)
...and clearly someone here is apparently far, far more cynical and conspiratorial than most people. That's unfortunate.
Thanks! I take that as a compliment. I consider myself an optimistic cynic - I hope for the best, but am wary of being spoon fed. FIFA acts on self-interest (as most people do), not to provide fans what they want but what FIFA thinks they want to hear. Apple doesn't allow all the options like Microsoft, Apple knows what's best for you. (I have an iPhone, gf has a Mac). I couldn't find the article in time, but it was prior to the last MWC or WWC that a FIFA official acknowledged there is planning involved to get a draw that favors FIFA, TV, sponsors and the Organizing Committee. Don't forget about the report a few years ago about the world wide ring of match fixing by different mafia type groups. Do I hope there's a trend to a more varied group with a second WWC of 24 teams? YES, most definitely. Do I think we'll still get Nigeria or Sweden or both? Yes, most probably. Getting one of those is not confirming pre-planning, it's confirming the likelihood that the draw is set in a way that our chances are higher getting some teams over others - not due to 6 teams being in a pot, but the US being placed in a group opposite France (other side of bracket in grp D, not in grp B as would be the altruistic case by rank), thus the selection of teams smaller by the time it gets to the US. A draw of NZ, S Kor, and Netherlands should be just as likely as Nigeria, Japan, Swe.
You're probably remembering the pre-assignments of the six seeded teams from 2015. FIFA definitely acknowledged how that was done to maximize attendance and TV. But that's the only instance of a statement like that, and it was very specific to that situation. Emphasized part is certainly true, but it's already explicit in FIFA rules. As I mentioned above, FIFA like the groups to be a mix of confederations, and that definitely limits who some teams will face**. However, suggesting that different teams within the same confederation are more likely than others... That's where I find the argument to fall apart. There's been no evidence that TV viewership or in-person attendance greatly favors the idea of the USA having the same group opponents every time. (In fact, in-person attendance couldn't focus on USA's opponents in general, as only cases where USA or CAN hosts would really be affected by traveling USA fans enough to make a rigged draw worth it.) Unless you think there's some sponsor that particularly likes those matches for whatever reason nudging FIFA to pull strings, then the thought doesn't hold water. I mentioned it in one of my earlier posts, but the randomness (within confederation limitations) is definitely observable with all other teams. Of all the teams to qualify 7 or 8 times, I don't there are any other instances of a particular group stage match happening more than twice. There isn't a huge reason - particularly in 07 and 11, which were outside of North America - to "target" the USWNT and not target other top-level teams, especially since all hosts except in 1991 have been top-level teams at the time of hosting. That is, I think viewing the draw is rigged is an inappropriately America-centric view of the overall process. ==EDIT== **This is, of course, previously a function of the fact that FIFA used to like making the draw pots based on confederation, explicitly forcing the confederations to mix. FIFA has already said that the pots for the upcoming WWC will, like with the MWC, be based solely on ranking. https://www.fifa.com/womensworldcup...important-decisions-on-fifa-women-s-world-cup Since each pot now is more likely to have a mix of confederations in it, that will also add to the level of variety any single seeded team could face in the groups.
General sale starts tomorrow at 1500 CET. City packages only. I particularly recommend the Lyon package. Both semi-final and the final for only 50€ total for cheapest tickets. Fans can buy tickets for 3 to 7 games with the cheapest package at 25€ for 3 games.
Just three comments about yours - and thank you for clarifying some points: 1. Before 2015 there wasn't much transparency in how seeds or pots were selected, and it's still funny that they weighted it toward attendance and TV, not toward randomness. So, proof of it happening once is not a grand conspiracy nor does it disprove it has happened in the past. If FIFA are still transparent enough on Dec. 7 they will state the reason why the seeds are placed and why the pots are divided. I don't expect that to occur, but if it does, great! 2. You mention randomness is definitely observable with all other teams. Assuming you meant all others than the US, then you do believe that the chance of the US drawing specific teams is not as random as one would believe? The chance of drawing Sweden and Nigeria in our group 3/5 WCs and each one in 4/5 is astoundingly small, with some calculations putting it at over a one in a million chance. That's not 4 flips of a coin ending up the same. If you'd like to run some numbers, use these: 5 WCs (99-15), 15 slots/opponents over those WCs, 57 total opponents available the US could be drawn with for those 15 slots, 6 total opponents the US was drawn with out of all 5 WCs, 2 teams were drawn 4 times for all the WCs they were eligible and those two teams (Sweden, Nigeria) were drawn with the US in 3 of 5 WCs. Of course you could break this down further to see what position the US's group was drawing and how many teams were left as that is the random part, so yes, there is a bit of chance. 3. I think it's disrespectful to call out my view as "inappropriately America-Centric." In doing so you are highlighting your own xenophobia, lest I digress, which is about fear, rather than understanding where someone might be coming from. There's no room for that in sport. Please keep to the topic. I am calling out something that is not limited to the US Team, but other top seeds as well as the divided pots. I will look at other top teams and their opponents. You agree that the one time FIFA acknowledged had seeding preferred towards an outcome, which is a form of rigging. Since they already identify matches in certain cities, the seeds, other than France, will probably be placed where FIFA and the OC deem most beneficial. Same occurs with the men's WC, but is more random due to the number of teams and the ability to make money way more easily. Lastly, I'm excited for the draw and the finalization of teams from CAF, the two playoffs, and NZL (unless a massive upset occurs). I hope the draw is more random - like having AUS last time was awesome, but so was Sweden to go against our former coach.