As someone who live in the region, I disagree. I'm not talking a club in Yorkville and TFC. I'm talking Oshawa, Mississauga and Vaughan. They are far enough from BMO field with enough population around them to support a club. Argonauts don't draw and the Jay's aren't going too thank the reconstruction they're ongoing. The mistake that I see so often is putting TFC on the same level as the Leafs and Raptors. Nope nope nope... they aren't there yet. There's space for soccer in the region in a way that would be impossible for baseball or basketball. Hockey could easily take more teams
I could probably be convinced that the Peel region has a chance thanks to the proximity of Mississauga and Brampton, but I'm not sure there is a similar concentration in York and Durham regions. It also depends on what your measuring stick is. If you're talking about maintaining a level of play between MLS and USL, you're probably talking attendance in the 5k-10k range... That's a lot harder than fielding a USL level team, particularly when you have TFC in the area.. I'm not putting them up on the level of the Leafs or Raptors, just saying that them being in the market is going to hurt the perception of the CPL, which will impact the attendance number.
York Region has over 1.2M people with Vaughan or Richmond Hill (depends who you're asking) as it's centre. Durham Regions is just over 650k with Oshawa as its biggest center. It's around over an hour by commuter train from BMO field and way worse by car. That is indeed the goal, above USL, somewhere below MLS, between 5k to 10k on average. Won't be easy but doable
I don’t think you appreciate how hard it is going to sell a “minor league” product in a major league market. Regardless of the CPL claiming they aren’t minor league, TFC already being in the market is going to give that impression...
Both Robert and Youshou make excellent points. To Youshou, you mentioned the GTA only having so many sports dollars. I would ask, are you talking about mere attendance or attendance PLUS tv/streaming viewers? Attendance is important but more important is media viewership, especially long term. That is where major sports teams and leagues really make their money.
Good thing that's not what the league is selling. CPL will be night and day from L1O or PLSQ. It's a major league in scope and vision. To who? Mississauga? York Region? Oshawa? Hamilton? Kitchener-Waterloo? Seriously doubt it. I can already tell you that Hamilton is Forge City. They just don't relate to TFC or most things Toronto. For Mississauga politicians to take initiative for a stadium this fast is telling on the demand in that city. Mississauga sense of identity is stronger than ever and have developed some of the best Canadian talents in history. That part of the GTA is very much so soccer country, for TFC not to capitulate is insane to me. Oshawa? Way too far to be TFC grounds. York 9? Remains to be seen since they won't be playing in Vaughan but North York, which has a history of having it's own separate identity from Toronto and used to have it's own pro club. North York could easily rally behind them, especially where they'll be located. (I live in North York, much more convenient to me than BMO) Tri-City? Too far Are we talking TV? TFC doesn't have that Maples Leafs, Raptors or Blue Jay's mystic to have a hold on the entire GTA. TV ratings just proves it, for a 6.5M "supposedly TFC saturated market" the numbers aren't there to back it off. The only times they drew big was the all Canadian playoffs derby which drew millions on TV. Casuals tuned in. Was it because of the Canadian content or was it because they cared about MLS? They've never drew that much on TV after TFC back to back playoffs runs. Casuals simply disconnected and went back to their business of not caring about the league and it's content. IF done right, CPL has a better chance to make them care. How well CPL does will have a lot to do with how many casuals they can win over. Hardcore soccer fans (we're the minority) will most likely follow both. Surveys already came to that conclusion. The media weren't talking about MLS until TFC The media weren't talking TFC except to mock them (even with De Rosario) until Defoe...then went back to mocking and not caring. The media started to pay attention when Giovinco was scoring and their playoffs runs. It's soooo recent. You talk like this market is locked down, which it isn't by a mile. They just had a terrible season, we're back at not caring. Tavares & the Leafs, Leonard-De Rozan and the Raptors, Jays reconstruction has beat TFC in the news, soundly. Remember that
Not for soccer. MLS just hit it big with their last TV contract and it netted them roughly $40 million a season. CPL is going to have it even harder. They aren’t going to have a team in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, or Ottawa for at least the next season. Yeah, they have a team in York, but that team is struggling already and people in GTA outside York aren’t going to be interested in watching them when they can just as easily watch TFC and, more importantly, the EPL. They plan to bundle their broadcasting with the Canadian National teams, but the problem with that is CSA already has a contract with TSN to broadcast National Team games through 2026. Until that contract runs out, CPL is going to find it hard to get a TV contract that doesn’t cost them money..
Not with MLS already in the country. Regardless of how CPL markets themselves, they are going to be viewed as minor league as long as their level of play is below MLS’s and as long as they don’t have a team in Toronto (and Montreal and Vancouver, to a lesser extent) What you just described is the existing media’s response to soccer in general. CPL isn’t going to change that.. At least, not in the major cities that drive national media. They just aren’t going to care about a league that is drawing 5k more than they care about a league that gets 3-4 times that.
And no one cares about MLS outside the 3 cities. It's news to me that MLS is the measuring stick between minor and major league. You're overestimating MLS reach within Canada. I said, CPL has a better chance to make Canadians care about it. Not enough Canadians care about MLS. The TV ratings aren't there. They are much more likely to care about a Canadian league with Canadian cities close to where they live than MLS. Atlantic Canada is more likely to watch CPL than MLS. Adding Moncton and St.john's just solidifies that. CPL Quebec is more likely to watch Quebec City than Montreal. (Saputo own admission, they aren't doing good outside of the Island). Historically, the Nordiques drew more in Quebec than the Canadiens. Rumors has it the Habs are actively blocking a Nordiques return. Montreal Region? Laval and north shore will rally to CPL. Montreal being older than MLS will hold the Island. See above National Capital Region? They certainly aren't watching USL so CPL eventually. GTA will be fierce competition, no doubts there. TFC does have an undeniable advantage. Mississauga will hold its turf while York will struggle. If Oshawa happens, they hold their region. I think Hamilton will win South Western Ontario with fierce competition from Kitchener-Waterloo Region. Manitoba? Half the province lives in Winnipeg. CPL. Saskatchewan? The league is working on the derby and people will have their fellow prairies provinces in CPL. Alberta? That derby though...CPL British Columbia? Vancouver has a strong hold on Metro Vancouver. A Surrey team will hand Fraser Valley to CPL. Vancouver Island is now CPL land. Perhaps the league understand Canadians and the Canadian market more than you give it credit for. Paul Beirne who started TFC where a lot of skeptics thought it couldn't be done made it work. I'd be careful not underestimating him. His major flaw is not quite understanding the subtilities of the Quebec market but he's learning fast with some of the changes the league has done with its approach to francophones. MLS still has no clues about Quebec (that rivalry t-shirt with both TFC and Impact logos on it is telling) All I'm saying is CPL could have a faster progression curve. Your point is mainly valid for the 3 cities, not the rest of the country, who are still the majority of Canadians (2/3).
Again great points on both sides. Youshou's points are verbatim problems found in America. Only here its Liga MX AND EPL/UEFA vs MLS. Robert's assertion that MLS underserves the nation as a whole rings true here as well. Well, as they say... Only time will tell.
For context, I found an article citing TV ratings comparing TFC ratings to other GTA franchises. https://www.google.com/amp/s/nation...atings-while-struggling-jays-numbers-drop/amp Additional info on rival soccer league, The EPL and its popularity in Canada. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.3091610 Again, big similarities with America where the EPL gains significant ratings for a foriegn product. A key question is how many of those existing soccer fans can the CPL attract? And will it be a referendum on the open vs closed system being best for growing leagues in a non-traditional soccer nation? That is probably what I am most fascinated about.
I think D2 should be a national league with a regional focus, and D3, should be regional leagues. D2 6 Regional Leagues, National Playoff at the end of regular season, to determine champion and promotion to CanPL: - Ontario League - Quebec League - Atlantic League - BC League - Alberta League - Central Canada League (Saskatchewan+Manitoba)
I agree but it will depend on where MLSE wants to take TFC past 2026. If they build BMO Field to have 40k permanent seats for the World Cup and keep the payroll growing (in the $35m-$40m range) then clubs like York 9 won't have a chance. However, if they dial back spending the GTA CPL teams can survive.
Gonna be honest, I’m not convinced York 9 will be around in 2026.. Not because of anything TFC did, but I’m not getting a warm fuzzy their FO is entirely competent.
If that is what you believe then a lot will come down to what happens when the MLS TV deals get renewed (they expire in 2022). That is, I think, the league's best option for ramping up payroll spending at a rate that exceeds slow and steady, inflationary type of growth.
York 9 will have moved to Vaughan by then in their brand new stadium. It's far enough from BMO Field to attract enough York Region and North York fans for them to thrive. The league by 2026 will have also grown and most likely have a Champions League berth to their Championship making it even more relevant. Their marketing needs to be on point and done right to pull it off. Too soon to tell now but from my understanding, they are doing the ground/field work to attract facts locally.
I can think of one team in Mexico that decided to sell their team into what was basically dissolution after being promoted... https://www.fourfourtwo.com/us/features/how-does-promotion-relegation-work-liga-mx-mexico Mexican second division sides are often at the brink of solvency once they finally get an opportunity for promotion. It's part of why they temporarily stalled the system to bring them up to par... I can imagine that there might be some owners who might balk at the increased investment required at a higher tier despite the investment opportunity and barring additional investors or a sale of the team entirely, might not be able to properly compete at the new tier. What mechanisms might assist those sides?
This is probably why the CSA hasn't blocked them from competing there and why I don't think that the CPL will really place a team there before Ottawa Fury moves over. Noone wants to burn bridges with a competent ownership group that has experience at the pro level. So they're humoring their understandable trepidation considering their own history as well as what nearly happened to FC Edmonton. The fact that Ottawa is currently in a stable position that they would not be able to return to if they left is likely the primary reason that they left bc no matter how solid a business plan CPL showed them; they're still a brand-new and untested league...
Cavalry FC have named Martin Nash as assistant coach and technical director. He last worked as Tommy Wheeldon Jr's assistant at the Calgary Foothills.Jordan Santiago also joins the club as goalkeeping coach, and has previous experience with West Ham United. #CanPL #CavsFC— The CanPL Hub (@thecanplhub) September 18, 2018
The problem here is how they did it. They blindsided both the league and the CSA while sending people on social medias and mainstream media taking shots at the league. The words of Clanachan were very telling in revealing that they had other investors interested in Ottawa while the CSA were far from thrilled at how things played out. Fury might have got their sanction for this year, something the CSA refused to confirmed publicly but beyond 2019, it's very doubtful that the CSA put up with it. I think they hurt their relationship with the league by how unprofessionally they handled it and wasting their time. If were the Fury, would work extra hard to repair it because the CSA doesn't have to sanction them past next year and the league doesn't have to accept OSEG over another group of investors. I think that they are overplaying their hand here and are about to find out the hard way. As for competent owners, in regards to soccer, even their fans are very divided on that. I think Ottawa deserves better than the Fury. The leagues needs teams that are all in on Canadian soccer, OSEG clearly aren't.
News of a #CanPL kit manufacturer is expected shortly, but Kurt Larson is out in Halifax with Macron branded attire. 👀 https://t.co/B2DGOXXM8i— The CanPL Hub (@thecanplhub) September 19, 2018
Sorry, my wife went to University there so I must have subconsciously left it out. Seriously, though, I'm wary of having too may teams in Ontario. If there gets to be a critical mass that makes it easier for Ontario teams to make money and compete on a travel basis, the other teams on the fringes might fold up shop if the economics aren't as favourable.
There isn't enough population centres to run that many regional leagues. Ontario and BC could probably each run it's own (due to population and geographic separation respectively), but Quebec and the Maritimes would have to be the other eastern region and the Prairies from Alberta to Manitoba would be the western region. That would also make it easier to organize playoffs between them.
Just like Europe, multiple clubs in large metro areas is the way to go for Canada. Australia did the same. Half of Canada lives in the Quebec-Windsor corridor. Makes sense that they get the bulk of the teams. This would help to bring the logistic cost down as teams facing each other could use a bus or Via Rail transportation which would help compensate for flights to the Pacific, Prairies and Atalntic. CPL wanting to expand fast makes sense too. The longer they stay with just 7-8 teams, the worse it gets on travel cost I would think