PBP Thread: Match #16, Colombia vs Japan, 19 June 2018 [R]

Colombia came to the tournament higher ranked than Japan by a good margin. I have not seen anyone say they are now worse than Japan by virtue of this one result. But if at the end of the tournament, they end up with fewer points than Japan, they will have been worse than Japan in this tournament.

Unlike you, making assumptions about what would happen if the game was 11 v 11 for the full 90 minutes, I am not making any assumptions. I am only saying that the handball prevented a goal and it happened when the two sides were 11 v 11.

Since you are so sure about these things, maybe you should bet on the games and become very rich. What I have noticed is that neither pundits, nor rankings, nor transfer value, nor pedigree, nor anything else does as well in predicting results as many assume. If you want, I will share with you the empirical evidence on this issue from Wc2014.

 

BTW, I'm not too sure had the match been 11 vs. 11 Colombia would have won. I suspect it'd have been a tie. Colombia looked in control when Japan let them play, but they were not playing well, reason why they needed a set piece to score.

It's typical for teams to go defensive when ahead, and apply pressure when tied. Japan did just that. And this Colombia surprised me in their disjointed nature.

That Perkerman felt a half-injured James was needed speaks volumes. I've always liked Pekerman but he doesn't have them playing as a team, they play like a bunch of guys who just got together.

 

Someone better tell Australia and OFC teams about this hypothesis.

It might explain why they are destined to do poorly on every WC.

 

If he hadn't intercepted the ball, the ball would have gotten to Iran's Karim Ansarifard. The picture is clear. Regardless, it doesn't matter as mistakes account for most goals and chances in football.

 

It has to be in Australia at some point. Then we'll see. I expect the Kiwis to make it out of group.

 

I am sure, yes. But I won't bet cause everytime I bet I lose

 

Decision making is an important part of judging who is better in soccer. History always remembers the winner, not who was better. When evaluating a roster, coaches will look at things like own goals, red cards and penalties conceded. Also the general mentality, consistency and reliability of a player. That's all part of the package, and all part of the recipe for winning.

 

There is also the Mexican case. Beating its European rival, very away from Mexico City. That rival is the current world champ, no less.

 

there's lots of people (usually the defeated) who remember who's been better

I wanted to respond to your quotes more but the game has started, so I'll quit here. Maybe some other time

See you on the Poland - Senegal thread

 

Mexico is a special case. Like Germany and the Dutch, they're a team that goes 100% every time. You don't see that often.

PS: And this World Cup the Germans are showing they're just human too, and fell for the Hubris monster.

 

Yep, no Iranians players were "all over the ball". Just Bouhaddouz.

 

Congratulations to Japan.

 

So European soil discomfort hypothesis applies to all of Conmebol -1, but not to other reps from for far-way nations like Mexico or Australia?

What about Uruguay?

Need more statistical samples, I am afraid.

 

Player ratings in European sports media: https://football-ratings.blogspot.com/2018/06/player-ratings-colombia-1-2-japan.html

Seems impossible to get ratings below 4 in average. Carlos Sánchez got 4s and 4.5 in Italy, 2s in France.

 

lol 100% of the time... smh

Saudi Arabia could play Germany and not lose 100% of the time.

Colombia are the overwhelming favorites but it wasn't as ridiculously lopsided as suggested. I very much doubt bookies would even bet on Colombia winning 7 of 10 games played 11 v 11.

The penalty and red card wasn't even controversial. It was clearly DOGSO and Japan put themselves in pole position to score early. Colombia significantly outplayed Japan for the next half hour, but only got a goal out of a FK that came off a dive. The second half was an entirely different story, they barely had a look on the Japanese goalkeeper. On the other hand, Japan's finishing is pretty dreadful, but hasn't been the worst I've seen this world cup.

Rodriguez shouldn't have been subbed on this game, felt like a pretty desperate move. Juan Quintero earned his right to stay on and would have allowed James to get additional rest if there was a nagging injury. They need to be massive vs. Poland and Senegal. Is Carlos Sanchez a huge loss for their next game?

 

You clearly haven't watched enough games. Harry kewell was red carded in '10, and his hands and arms were by his side!

 

yes, they could. And they will

 

IMO yes.

 

It's a matter of mentality. Teams with strong mentality (Germany, Netherlands, Mexico, USA until recently, Australia, Japan) tend to be less affected by the distance factor, in my hypothesis.

Teams that are highly emotional and lose it once things stop going their way (England until recently, France, Mediterranean teams like Italy and Greece, South Americans outside Brazil, and the Arab teams) are more susceptible.

 

Saw the match and Iranian player #10 could score a goal. He was on the right path.

 

I doubt the distance teams have to cover to get to the venue has any impact (they pretty much travel and are accomodated like royalty), it's likelier that a specific local climate has a small impact (although it's not like all Asian, African or Concacaf teams are used to the same climate) and the rest is the support from local/continental fans and, above all, a certain dose of coincidence.


I did the numbers a bit and at World Cup 2002 in faraway Japan and South Korea, 9 UEFA teams out of 15 made it past the group stage. A decent ratio, not far from the success rates of WC '98 in France (10/15) and WC 2006 in Germany (11/15).

At the last two WCs in South Africa and Brazil, if memory serves, about half the European teams crashed out in group stage, but they nevertheless took 1st, 2nd and 3rd in 2010 and 1st and 3rd in 2014. Spain and Germany being the first European teams to win the titles outside European soil.

People exaggerate the influence of WC location and climate. Unless it were played in the humid jungles of central Africa or Indonesia/Southeast Asia, I don't think it's that decisive.

 

Some people like to pretend that there was some innocent ball that the Moroccan player just carelessly put into his own net. The truth is that the ball was going to get to Karim Ansarifard in front of Morocco's goal. The Moroccan player made a split second decision to dive to intercept it and, fortunately for us, his diving interception hit the ball nicely into the net.

 

True, but Ansarifard was going to get that ball a foot from the goalie. It was not a trivial shot.

 

Transfer value can't count as a way to determine wich team is better, then Pogba is better than Cristiano Ronaldo due to value or Bale better than Kaká (which is not). And what pedigree has Colombia? 1 America Cup in more than 100 years in the history of the cup and nothing more, if we want to count titles, Japan has 4 Asian Cups.

The worst is that many people (not you) talk about Japan without even watch one match of them until today. I watch J-League about 7 years ago and the National Team since their first world cup in 1998 (I loved Hidetoshi Nakata) and I think I know a thing or two about them. I know they are not perfect of course, but they are a good team that can create problems to anyone (if not, ask Zidane's france at 2 confederations cups). They have problems in goalkeeping or finishing, but they are not Saudi Arabia, for god's sake. And these 23 players are not even the best 23 players Japan has, they have amazing players playing in J-League (again, ask Atlético Nacional or Real Madrid in Club World Cup less than 2 years ago). Osako (in spite of the goal today) is not in the top-5 forwards of Japan, he only plays because he plays in Germany, same as Kawashima (Metz) that was never be in their best form again. Sub GK Nakamura is way better than him, but no one see that because he plays in Japan for Kashiwa Reysol. History, Country or famous players doesn't make a good team.

 

I think most people who follow Asian football recognize that Japan plays the most articulate brand of football in Asia and is capable of playing well against decent opposition even outside of Asia. At times, the Japanese style is called "Japanese tiki taka" and they are capable of passing the ball around quite well and have the basic skill set that many Asian sides lack. They do have weaknesses, however, including not being able to always finish their chances efficiently. They also are a tough bunch but they do have height and physical disadvantages.

In any case, I like Japan's football team and usually root for them.