Well, this is embarrassing. Turns out I looked at Oceania Olympic qualifiers (where NZL has a direct bye into the final) instead of OFC qualifiers (where NZL goes thru a longer qualification process). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_OFC_Women's_Championship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_OFC_Women's_Championship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_OFC_Women's_Nations_Cup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_OFC_Women's_Nations_Cup Looking at the correct sources above, NZL still gets large victories over most OFC members, but gives them all a fair shot to earn that 1 WC spot. Like it or not, OFC holds 1 WC ticket partly because of historic legacy. From what I read so far, OFC teams were precursors of world women's football, participating in earlier intercontinental competitions; way before FIFA decided to legitimize women's football: 1978-1987: Women's World Invitation Tournament or Chunghua Cup - http://www.rsssf.com/tablesw/wom-witoverview.html 1984-1988: Women's Mundialito - http://www.rsssf.com/tablesm/mundialito-women.html 1988: 1988 FIFA Women's Invitation Tournament - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_FIFA_Women's_Invitation_Tournament 1991: 1st FIFA Women's WC - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_FIFA_Women's_World_Cup There is Spanish saying, hard to translate into English: "la ignorancia es atrevida"... but a good equivalent phrase would be: "fools rush in where angels fear to tread". That's me, Mr. foolhardy-pants.
Africa (CAF): 3 Asia (AFC): China, Thailand, Japan, Australia, South Korea Europe (UEFA): 8 plus hosts France North/Central America (CONCACAF): 3 plus 1 to play-off v CONMEBOL third place Oceania (OFC): 1 South America (CONMEBOL): 2 plus 1 to play-off v CONCACAF fourth place The AFC teams are exactly the same as in 2015.
We're on pace to have the 2019 WWC Groups look like this: Group A France Netherlands China New Zealand Group B Germany Norway Thailand Ivory Coast Group C Australia Switzerland Cameroon Costa Rica Group D USA Sweden Japan Nigeria Group E Canada Spain Brazil South Korea Group F England Italy Mexico Colombia *which means no 1st timers at the 2019 WWC.
If no new nations make it to the 2019 WWC, then we could see them expedite expansion to 32 nations a little quicker. The counter argument is that no other nations outside of the 24 who qualify would be worthy yet. But do we want a (stale) selection to be the same every tournament? It would get stale eventually, especially if some of the groups turn out to almost be the same, from one cycle to the next. Solution: Just go ahead and expand to 32 nations, starting in 2023 (in Japan).
Aren't you (as usual) a little ahead of yourself, since actually just 6 nations out of 24 (just a quarter of the teams) really qualified? It's true that many teams, by now, can we considered virtually in, but I'd say it's really early to call "no 1st timers at WWC"! For instance: Copa America is underway and I'd say that Chile, despite having just lost (as expected, anyway) to Brazil in the final round, have a good shot at qualifying. It's not a given that CONCACAF's 4th-placed team will beat them.
Fun facts: While at least 1 new nation has qualified for every men's WC, the 2007 WWC did not include any debuts. We *could* have had a similar situation when the WWC expanded to 24 teams in 2015, since only 24 teams had ever qualified to the WWC before then. However, 8 nations failed to requalify, meaning we now have 32 nations that have ever qualified for a WWC. That said, even when the WWC does expand to 32 teams, (probably no time soon,) we'll still probably have a nation making a debut, because the original WWC hosts Chinese Taipei (aka Taiwan) have never qualified since then, and haven't even qualified for the AFC Cup in three cycles (and went 0-3 in the two AFC Cups before that). If I had to guess on any possible debuts for 2019, I would make the following bets: CAF: S.Africa. Consistently a top 4 nation in the continent, but has always done better at Cup of Nations tournaments that didn't serve as WWC qualifiers, while the WWCQ CoNs have seen them 1 spot shy for the past three cycles. C'BOL: Chile. It's an uphill battle, but they're also the hosts of the current Copa America. I think it's possible they get results against ARG and COL, or at least get one result and beat whoever C'CAF #4 is. Both are tough routes, though. UEFA: Wales, Scotland, Iceland, or Belgium. None will get an automatic spot, but looking at the teams who will likely land in the playoffs, any have a chance as that last UEFA spot. Previously-qualified Denmark will be the biggest challenge for anyone trying to debut though.
I mostly agree with you. South Africa in particular has qualified for Olympics 2012 and has some interesting players in NWSL, in Houston Dash. Their experience in US could reveal precious.
Africa (CAF): 3 Asia (AFC): China, Thailand, Japan, Australia + South Korea or Phillipines Europe (UEFA): 8 plus hosts France North/Central America (CONCACAF): 3 plus 1 to play-off v CONMEBOL third place Oceania (OFC): 1 South America (CONMEBOL): Brasil, ? plus 1 to play-off v CONCACAF fourth place
Qualifying update: AFC is finished. Japan, Australia, China, Thailand, and South Korea have qualified. Same teams as 2015. Happy to see the Koreans make it. They were screwed over by AFC twice. First, grouped with North Korea in preliminary qualifying (which decided the eight Asian Cup teams). They narrowly won on goal difference. Then in the Asian Cup, grouped with Australia and Japan. They did enough to make the 5th place match, and rightly beat Philippines. CONMEBOL is nearly finished. Brazil and Chile (debutants!) have qualified directly. Argentina will face the 4th place CONCACAF team in home-and-away playoff -- likely Mexico or Costa Rica. The big surprise: Colombia, widely considered second best in the region, who beat France in 2015 and advanced to Round of 16, finished last in the final round and miss 2019. Skilled players like Rincón, Usme, Montoya, Andrade will miss out this time. The CONCACAF-CONMEBOL playoff will be of higher quality than 2015. Argentina-Mexico or Argentina-Costa Rica are better teams than Ecuador-T&T. CONCACAF Women's Championship (October 2018): top 3 teams qualify directly, with 4th place team facing Argentina in a home-and-away playoff. CAF African Cup of Nations (November 2018). Two teams qualify. UEFA: group play finishes September 2018. Each of the 7 group winners qualifies directly (along with host France). Right now, leaders are: England, Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Italy and Spain. In addition, the best 4 second-place teams advance to a playoff round, with only the winner qualifying. Currently Iceland, Belgium, Scotland, and Denmark have dibs on these spots. UEFA is the only confederation with a true qualifying format. The rest have tournaments with very condensed timeframes. OFC Women's Nations Cup (November 2018). One team qualifies. Barring a miracle, it'll be New Zealand again. I know FIFA wants global representation, but really, NZ needs to do a playoff against CONMEBOL or CONCACAF. Right now it's too easy and automatic for them.
@WWC_Movement talking too much early, as usual. We get at least one new nation at WWC 2019, potentially more than one. Have to credit @SiberianThunderT about predicting this on (as well as I did): Go Chile! It's indeed a surprise and I agree we're going to miss those players, but they wasted their chances and now other good teams will deservedly go to WWC 2019 instead. It's football, you have to play it out, before calling a result: maybe they were over-confident? You don't believe in New Caledonia enough. Jokes apart, I totally agree with you.
Actually, I never said we wouldn't have any new nations in the World Cup. I only said "if it were to happen", and thankfully it did not. Congrats to Chile. CONMEBOL could get 3 teams in. I'll be rooting for Argentina to beat the CONCACAF 4th team, if it's Costa Rica. Actually, I might be rooting for Argentina no matter what ............
Condensed time frames are linked to lower investment for organizing qualifiers. Fewer WC spots, lower investment in qualifier tournaments. After a 50% WC expansion from 16 to 24 countries, UEFA carved an extra WC spot for itself, growing from 4.5 to 8 WC spots. Now, UEFA has justification for a prolonged qualifying format, chasing 8 WC spots. A true qualifying format, where certain federations retain byes into its final qualification round.
Africa (CAF): 3 Asia (AFC): China, Thailand, Japan, Australia , South Korea Europe (UEFA): Spain, Italy +6 plus hosts France North/Central America (CONCACAF): 3 plus 1 to play-off v Argentina Oceania (OFC): 1 South America (CONMEBOL): Brazil, Chile plus Argentina v CONCACAF fourth place
Just go ahead and put New Zealand next to OFC. The Ferns would be stupid to do a doping scandal to get through OFC Qualifying.
24 teams is plenty for the WC. You don't need 32 teams. The event is bloated enough already, IMO. It's not like several good, deserving teams will miss out because they failed to qualify.
Not on most continents, except probably Europe. In almost all of the qualifiying groups the second-placed team could actually be WWC worthy, but only one of them will qualify through play-offs: for instance teams like Belgium, Norway, Denmark are currently at second place in their respective groups, and don't tell me they wouldn't make a more than decent WWC impression.
2023 World Cup: Host (1): Japan AFC (6): Australia, China, North Korea, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines UEFA (12): Ger, Eng, Fra, Neth, Swe, Den, Nor, Spain, Italy, Swiz, Ice, Scot CAF (4): Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, Ghana OFC (1): New Zealand CONCACAF (4.5): USA, Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica CONMEBOL (3.5): Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Colombia (gets in over T&T) This would be a kick-ass World Cup. Teams like Costa Rica have some exciting young talent (Villalobos). Scotland has Kim Little, and giving her more of a shot to make a WWC is great. Iceland would be exciting to see in a World Cup, as would Ireland some day. The rest of UEFA teams on that list are stacked with quality & upcoming talent. Ghana has had some decent youth teams, and getting to a WWC would help. It would be interesting to see Messi comment if Argentina women get in. Does Messi do more to promote the women's game in Argentina if so? Group A: Japan, Sweden, Argentina, Mexico Group B: Germany, Denmark, Cameroon, Thailand Group C: Canada, Italy, Chile, New Zealand Group D: Netherlands, Spain, Ghana, South Korea Group E: USA, Switzerland, Brazil, Philippines Group F: France, Iceland, Nigeria, China Group G: Australia, Norway, Colombia, Costa Rica Group H: England, Scotland, South Africa, North Korea There are many interesting and underrated scenarios here: Group C may look like one of the weaker ones at first, but Italy is rapidly getting better recently, and New Zealand has progressed each year over the past decade in terms of being more competitive to play against. Argentina vs. Mexico would be very cool to see in a World Cup. Those two nations play very physical against each other in the women's game, and actually take it quite personal when their women face off against one another, in any major sport. If Cameroon continues to improve, their blazing speed may give Germany some problems by 2023. We already saw Denmark beat Germany in the Euro last year, so that's not an easy match up for Germany in Group B. Spain vs. Netherlands is always interesting. South Korea could be a real sleeper in Group D. Group E is the Group of Death, if Brazil stays ranked in the Top 12 by then, and if Switzerland can get ranked in the Top 16 by then. Group F has a strong case for the most balanced group, and for being the Group of Death. China is only going to be better by then, Iceland is continuing to improve, and Nigeria is never easy to play against. Australia vs. Norway is strong in Group G. Colombia vs. Costa Rica will be a dog fight, and we know what Colombia is capable in terms of puling a major upset in a World Cup. Maybe they take down Norway to get 2nd place? Group H is very interesting. England vs. Scotland is going to a bloody war on the pitch. North Korea's return to the World Cup makes this group a very entertaining one to watch. This 32 nation World Cup has just as much parity and strength in 2023 as the 24 nation World Cup had in 2015, and maybe even in 2019. Grow the Women's Game
I was going to write that, in a normal year, North Korea should easily qualify, thus leaving Thailand out, and that missing Thailand wouldn't hurt WWC so much. Then, suddenly, I remembered of the semi-final of AFC Asian Cup from two months ago, when Thailand almost eliminated Australia and only lost in the penalty shootout, and I changed my mind: surely Thailand got much better in the last two cycles, and can now be considered a "deserving" team. Near the bottom of Asian qualified teams, but no more cannon fodder either.
I like the idea of a 32-team Women's World Cup also, because no decent teams are left out. Plus more games!