News: 2017-18 UEFA Champions League draw: The Road to Kiev [R]

ROAD TO LYON (Europa League) is now down to 16 teams, I think that they draw will be soon (tomorrow in Nyon if I had to guess) so here is a quick update now that down to 16 and before the draw takes place. Farther down you can see where the odds were over time this season.
Atletico - 3.5:1 (let's hope they have a tough draw to keep them working hard)
Arsenal 6
BVB 10
Milan 13
RB Leipzig 18
Lazio 20
Lyon 25
Bilbao 28
Zenit 30
Marseille 33
Sporting Lisbon 33
CSKA 60
Salzburg 66
Lok Moscow 100
Dynamo Kiev 125
Plzen 200

PRIOR POST from February 13 before Round of 32 started:
ROAD TO LYON update for EUROPA LEAGUE. Below is what I last posted on December 11th after the draw in italics:

Road to Lyon post draw update, changes not so big as in CL, but Napoli and Leipzig took a hit for drawing each other:
1-Atletico 5:1 now 5.5, now very clear favorites 3.5
2-Arsenal 7.5 now 6, same
3-Napoli 10 now 12, now 10 again
--Dortmund now 11 and alone in 3rd, now 14
5-Milan 14 same, now 18
6-Leipzig 16 now 25, still 25
7-Lazio 17 now 16, still 16
8-Lyon 25 now 28, now 25
--Villarreal now 35 (Lyon and Villarreal were each 25:1, drew each other but Villarreal took a bigger hit for it). Now 25 again, as both were before they drew each other, weird.
10-Real Soc 30 same, now 33
11-Atalanta 33 now 50, still 50
--Sporting same at 33 still, still 33
13-Zenit 40 now 35, now 33
--Bilbao now 35, still 35
--Marseille now 50, now 35
16-CSKA 50 now 60, now 66
--Dynamo Kiev now 100
--Spartak Mos now 66, still 66
19-Nice 60 now 50, now 66
--Salzburg now 100, still 100, still 100
21-Braga 80 now 150, still 150
--Celtic now 100, now 150
23-Steaua 100 now 200, still 200

there are a few other teams of course but all are at least 100:1 and were not tracked previously so not bothering now, but you can see all here: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner

 

I hope to see Atletico-Dortmund (would be an amazing match)

 

Well the 2nd seeded team to win it all draws the 4th seeded team to win it all, in a draw with 16 teams is pretty rare (kinda like PSG and Real drawing each other).

However we are talking about two teams that aren't likely to make the top 4 (and the CL) of their leagues without possibly winning the Europa League (ala Man U last year, and Sevilla before that). Expensive rosters, big name teams with lots of supporters (which may actually shorten their betting odds as people like to gamble on a team they support and/or one which has historically been good) but must see football - not at all.

 

I bet the winner of Milan-Arsenal will win Europa League. Atletico are the strongest favorites, but they already have a UCL place in La Liga. They are the second 2 toughest teams in the tournament and also are not too close to a UCL place in their league. I'd give Zenit a good chance too but again they are currently in a UCL spot already.

 

Both teams will certainly be super motivated for that reason, and their coaches may both prioritize Europa success over league success, because of the trophy and the huge CL reward.

But I would take that bet in a second, whoever wins of the two will be just 1 of 8 teams left, likely including the other favorites. Also while motivation is great it comes with great pressure. If you really want to put money down stick with Zenit who you have liked all along, as their odds got longer after drawing RBLeipzig. As for the two of us let's just wager pride on whether or not the Ars-Mil winner takes it all.

Predraw on left, post draw odds on right:
Atletico - 3.5:1 now 2.6 big gain after getting Lok Moscow
Arsenal 6 now 6.5
BVB 10 now 6 big gain after drawing Salz
Milan 13 now 15
RB Leipzig 18 now 13 big gain despite drawing Zenit
Lazio 20 now 16 nice gain after getting Dyn Kiev
Lyon 25 same
Bilbao 28 now 27
Zenit 30 now 40
Marseille 33 now25
Sporting Lisbon 33 now 20
CSKA 60 now 66
Salzburg 66 now 150 huge drop
Lok Moscow 100 now 125
Dynamo Kiev 125 now 100
Plzen 200 same

 

I usually do not put money on any games unless a team is 80+% chance of winning.

I do believe Zenit are likely 4th favorites at this point (third if you include only one of Arsenal or Milan). Leipzig are not that good. The only reason they beat Napoli was because they did not play first leg seriously and fielded a weak team. I really believe Zenit could go far at least (depending on the draw of course).

 

LOL Salzburg (If they actually make the final, I would be the most shocked person ever).

 

Arsenal's big issue is that Aubamayang is cup-tied and Lacazette is injured. So Danny Wellbeck is their only option as striker! Maybe some teams can get by with that but when you consider their defending, they'll need 3-4 goals per round to advance. Don't see that happening 3 times in-a-row (just to get to the final), even with Lacazette coming back from injury in a few weeks.

This draw was probably the last chance to get a soft opponent and they didn't get lucky. So Arsenal will have to beat 4 good teams to win it. Not happening IMO.

If I were to pick an outsider it would be Lyon. Extra motivation since the final is in Lyon (also they probably won't qualify for CL if they don't win this competition). But yeah... also hard to bet against Atletico.

 

After the first legs were played I posted updated odds on February 21st, not much has changed since then but this is what I posted on Feb. 21, which any changes in BOLD. If nothing in bold then nothing has changed.
OK after just the first leg of the round of 16 the odds have moved a bit. In the interests of time here they are from the top and I'll post the odds from my last update (just before the first legs started below):
ManC 3.6 3.333 (10/3)
Barca 5
Bayern 5
Real 6
PSG 11 12
Liverpool 12 10
Tottenham 18 16
ManU 25
Juve 33
Chelsea 40
Roma 80
Sevilla 150
Shaktar 150
Besitkas; Basel; and Porto 10,000 each.

 

Milan looking like a good bet at 15:1 now (odds might have changed since you posted this though). They basically have a bye to the quarterfinals given current form.

 

Arsenal's odds have gotten longer (from 6.5:1 to 7:1) but a couple betting sites are still paying 15:1 for Milan (though most others are paying 12, 14, or even 10 for Milan). Since I last posted after the draw (on Feb. 23rd) I am adding changes in BOLD to the right, but only IF they changed:

Atletico - 3.5:1 now 2.6 big gain after getting Lok Moscow 2.25 (9/4) got even shorter perhaps now that they can give up Liga dreams and pursue Europa title wholeheartedly
Arsenal 6 now 6.5 now 7
BVB 10 now 6 big gain after drawing Salz now 6.5
Milan 13 now 15
RB Leipzig 18 now 13 big gain despite drawing Zenit now 12.5
Lazio 20 now 16 nice gain after getting Dyn Kiev now 12
Lyon 25 same now 14, why such a big change?
Bilbao 28 now 27
Zenit 30 now 40
Marseille 33 now 25 now 20
Sporting Lisbon 33 now 20
CSKA 60 now 66
Salzburg 66 now 150 huge drop
Lok Moscow 100 now 125
Dynamo Kiev 125 now 100
Plzen 200 same

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner

 

Real Madrid is now considered the 2nd favorite to win the CL at 4.5:1, leapfrogging Barca and Bayern. I'm at bit at a loss, I mean they did just win a big match up against another favorite but their domestic form is crap. Then again, maybe that is the point, they are freed up from Liga race, out of the Copa, only have CL to play for and have won the last 2, and 3 of the last 4.

 

Madrid are back!!!1!1!
Meh

Barca’s odds will probably get shorter than LPB’s if and when they get past Chelsea. No idea why LPBs odds are shorter than Bayern though.

 

Bayern Munich is a pretty good team, I think they can matchup alright.

 

I think any of the English teams can get to the final. We are seeing first-hand how difficult Chelsea are and they’re a clear #5 in England. Also the other four can all focus on CL the rest of the season since the title and top 4 are pretty much decided; most are even out of the FA cup.

Feels a bit like 2008 or (hopefully) 2009.

 

Good points about their ability to focus and how 5th place Chelsea is causing us problems, but damn, cannot really see Tottenham or esp. Man U winning it all. Not without a ton of lucky draws and wins. Liverpool and esp. Man City for sure could win it all, though I worry about Liverpool's D.

 

At this point the only lucky draw would be the winner of Roma/Shakhtar. And Chelsea if they somehow advance.

For me I see Spurs as a better CL team than Liverpool. Better defense, more experience and they have the most clinical striker. If they can beat Juve it pretty much proves they can go all the way, but of course they haven't beaten them yet.

Man Utd could probably grind out a result better than Liverpool too. CL seems to favor teams that play dire football.

 

Or them getting knocked out by Pep would be pretty awesome!