In another thread, in a discussion about Iran, I mentioned this already: while most commentators and observers who know Iran's team from a distance, often focus on our defensive organization and acumen, the real secret that I hope Iran will reveal in World Cup 2018 is its offense. We have had better individual players in some past squads, but I don't recall a time when our team was so stacked with so many good forwards and attacking midfielder. Indeed, the toughest part of Querioz's job in picking his roster will be to somehow trim his choices upfront. Even with Dejagah injured and possibly out of contention for a roster spot, to choose among Azmoun, Ansarifard, Ghoochannejad, Taremi, Rezaei, Ghoddos, Jahanbakhsh, Shojaie, and even Torabi (not to mention the current top goal scorer in Iran's league, Alipour), for what would be at most 5-6 roster spots isn't going to be easy. But I do hope he picks at least 6 of these players for Russia. If Dejagah doesn't recover in time, my choices would be as follows: Azmoun, Taremi, Jahanbakhsh, Ghoddos, Ansarifard, and Shojaie. That would still leave out Ghoochannejad, Rezaei, as well as the likes of Torabi and several others. (If Dejagah is fully recovered, and in good shape, I would take Dejagah and drop Shojaie).
People tend to reduce this Iranian team only to its defensive organisation and assume that they are lacking firepower upfront due to the low number of goals scored in qualfying. But they will hopefully learn the truth this summer. Ghodoos has just gave two assists against Arsenal. How likely is the following offensive set-up, Iranian Monitor? FW: Azmoun LW: Taremi RW: Jahanbaksh CAM: Ghodoos/ Dejagah For what position is Ghodoos planned? Forward, Leftwing or Central Attacking midfield?
From our friendlies, I think Ghoddos was being slated to play mostly on the left wing. With Dejagah injured, he might be used in the CAM position. Indeed, your lineup upfront looks pretty much what Iran could be expected to field in Russia.
Ghoddos is making Arsenal defence look like Swiss cheese. He already had two assists against Arsenal in London and it’s only half-time.
Ghoddos is a very intelligent player, besides being quite skilled and talented. In this, I would contrast him with another player who played well against Arsenal and, indeed, was arguably their MOM based on his goal and the chances he created, namely Sema. Sema tormented Arsenal's defense from his side, was very difficult to control physically and was very good dribbling and pushing players off the ball and getting passed them. But the guy had never heard that there is also something called "passing": he was a bull hug that really failed to capitalize effectively on a lot of situations he himself was creating, by hugging the ball too much and refusing to pass it to anyone else. By contrast, Ghoddos was often quickly passing the ball to the most effective target.
Another Iranian player who played in the Europa league last night is being talked about as well, but unfortunately for the wrong reason. Shojaie's club (AEK Athens) which had finished with a 1:1 draw in Athens, needed to beat Dynamo Kiev last night. Their best chance to do so fell to Shojaie, who unfortunately failed to score and made the headlines as a result. His coach at AEK was fully supportive of Shojaie after the game, saying that a player like Shojaie seldom misses chances and the one he missed will only make him more determined to make amends in future games. But, for now, Shojaie is on the front cover of many Greek football publications for the wrong reason.
Ghoddos is not just a great player, he’s also a true gentleman and a rare gem out there. Janne Andersson har gjort det mesta rätt som förbundskapten, men att inte lyckas knyta till sig Ghoddos var ett misstag. pic.twitter.com/GllY9WUNcR— Unibet Sverige (@Unibet_Sverige) February 22, 2018 Starka känslor på Emirates efter slutsignalen. Saman Ghoddos med en supporter ❤️ pic.twitter.com/5cA5UqPPVr— Unibet Sverige (@Unibet_Sverige) February 22, 2018 Saman Ghoddos: Man of the Match vs Arsenal - Rating 8.91, Assists 2, Key Passes 7, Dribbles 3, Shots 1, Tackles 1 @ofk_1996Full player ratings: https://t.co/KmaDLezfso pic.twitter.com/9RMa0Tc1Jd— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) February 22, 2018
I'm confident that we will beat Morocco 1-0 in a game that will be nerve wrecking for us where we give up possession most of the time and hurt them on the counter very late and unexpectedly.
I like to present some statistics that are related to AFC and CAF teams. It is about how many teams advanced to the next round from both these confederations since 1990. 8/31 CAF teams advanced ~ 26% 5/24 AFC teams advanced ~21% Now CAF and AFC teams were in the same group on 13 occasions since 1990. 3/13 CAF teams advanced ~ 23% 4/13 AFC teams advanced ~ 31% 6 times both CAF and AFC failed to advance ~ 46% These statistics show us that CAF is overall slightly more successfull. But their slim advantage over AFC turns into a slight backorder when their teams are groupped with AFC teams interestingly. It is very slight. But if you get from +5% to -8% it is still worth mentioning in my opinion. Ghana advanced 2010 in a group with Australia Algeria advanced 2014 in a group with South Korea Nigeria advanced 2014 in a group with Iran Saudi Arabia advanced 1994 in a group with Morocco Japan advanced 2002 in a group with Tunisia South Korea advanced 2010 in a group with Nigeria Japan advanced 2010 in a group with Cameroon
CAF (56 members) Best Teams: Nigeria Ivory Coast Morocco Algeria Senegal Cameroon Ghana South Africa Egypt Tunisia (and there is a dozen decent others like Zambia, Mali, Togo, Congo DR etc that I am not including in the list) AFC (47 members) Best Teams: Iran Saudi Arabia Japan South Korea Australia Who else? Syria, Qatar, North Korea, Iraq? And if you look at the stats that you listed, you will see that the tide is turning in Africa's favor in terms of direct confrontations. It is also unimaginable for Asia in modern times to have new teams like Senegal (first participation in 2002) and Ghana (second participation in 2010) go to the quarter finals. The last big result Asia had at a WC was South Korea's at home and very controversial Semi Final qualification in 2002... Given the quality difference in terms of players this year, and the scheduled games between Iran and Morocco, Senegal and Japan, and Saudi Arabia and Egypt in this world cup, I think that we will likely see CAF break that confrontation tie with AFC for good. Also (and this is an honest question), did an Asian player ever win Ballon d'Or or FIFA player or the year? And when was the last time an Asian player appeared on the Ballon d'Or or FIFA Best Player or the Year shortlist? CAF not only won a Ballon d'Or with George Weah, Africa is consistently represented in the shortlist every year and came close to winning again several times (Drogba, Eto'o etc). The reason that we are still at a point where we are comparing stats has nothing to do with AFC. It is mainly because Africa has cruelly underperformed in terms of national teams primarily due to resource mismanagement, payment disputes etc. It seems, however, that the level of talent quality between Africa and Asia is growing so wide that even horrible mismanagement from the part of African national teams will no longer be enough to keep this debate going for long. Finally and more generally, in terms of contribution to world football, the gap is so wide between AFC and CAF that the comparison between the two is just a joke to anyone who understands and actually follows this sport...
If you the quality of particular teams was measured by the kind of issues mentioned by Salas, and if football was not a team sport but an individual sport, CAF would rate way above the AFC, Concacaf and most of Conmebol. But for now, the overall results from CAF show otherwise. Not just in the World Cup, where besides what was mentioned, the h2h record is also tied against the AFC. But across the board, exemplified by the fact that CAF teams don't rank highly by the result-oriented ranking systems either (ELO, FIFA). That said, the top 15 sides in the AFC according to their ELO ranking would be as follows -- and the ones that are in bold have qualified to the World Cup in the past. Indeed, with the exception of Iran, all the teams from the AFC that have participated in at least 2 World Cups have advanced from their World Cup group at least once (S.Korea, Japan, Australia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea). 1- Iran: #22 2- South Korea: #25 3- Australia: #35 4- Japan: #41 5- Uzbekistan: #61 5- Syria: #61 7- Saudi Arabia; #67 8- Iraq #69 9- China #70 10- UAE #71 11- Oman #75 12- Jordan #90 13- Qatar #92 14- Lebanon #96 15- North Korea #98 The top 15 from CAF according to ELO are: 1- Senegal #27 2- Nigeria #44 3- Morocco #45 4- Egypt #50 5- Cameroon #51 6- Tunisia #53 7- Ghana #55 8- Burkina Faso #54 9- DR Congo #63 10- Ivory Coast #64 11- South Africa #72 12- Algeria #73 13- Mali #79 14- Zambia #82 15- Libya #87 Imagine these match-ups. Of course, CAF fans won't agree, but if these teams were to meet and I had to put my money on it, I wouldn't pick many of these match up in favor of CAF, even if on balance, CAF might win a few more than the AFC. 1- Iran v. Senegal 2- South Korea v Nigeria 3- Australia v Morocco 4- Japan v Egypt 5- Uzbekistan v Cameroon 6- Syria v Tunisia 7- Saudi Arabia v Ghana 8- Iraq v Burkina Faso 9- China v DR Congo 10- UAE v Ivory Coast 11- Oman v South Africa 12- Jordan v Algeria 13- Qatar v Mali 14- Lebanon v Zambia 15- North Korea v Syria
World Cup 2014, which tied up what was otherwise before a losing CAF record against the AFC, either was an aberration or showed CAF becoming stronger than the AFC. This World Cup will give us a hint at the right answer, although on paper (rankings), the match up actually aren't favorable to the AFC because (going by ELO), the #4 AFC team (Japan) faces the #1 CAF team (Senegal), the #7 AFC team (Saudi Arabia) faces the #4 CAF team (Egypt) and only Iran (#1 in the AFC) is facing a lower ranked CAF side (Morocco, #3).
1. Draw. 2.Nigeria 3.Morocco, maybe a draw. 4.Japan 5.Cameroon 6.Tunisia 7.Ghana, 8.Burkina Faso 9.Dr Congo 10.Ivory Coast 11.South Africa 12.Algeria 13.I dont know 14.Zambia 15. ????
This is fun, but yup, CAF fans (and I would dare say the large majority of people outside of Asia) wouldn't see AFC winning more than one or two of these match-ups that you listed. 1- Iran v. Senegal (win for Senegal) 2- South Korea v Nigeria (tie or small win for Nigeria) 3- Australia v Morocco (easy win for Morocco) 4- Japan v Egypt (tie or small win for Egypt) 5- Uzbekistan v Cameroon (easy win for Cameroon) 6- Syria v Tunisia (small win for Tunisia) 7- Saudi Arabia v Ghana (win for Ghana) 8- Iraq v Burkina Faso (tie or small win for Burkina Faso) 9- China v DR Congo (easy win for DR Congo) 10- UAE v Ivory Coast (heavy score for Ivory Coast even with their b team ) 11- Oman v South Africa (heavy score for South Africa) 12- Jordan v Algeria (heavy score for Algeria even with their b team) 13- Qatar v Mali (easy win for Mali) 14- Lebanon v Zambia (easy win for Zambia)
We would all be guessing, but certainly what you mentioned are the kind of results that would come to mind. I personally don't know if Morocco would beat Australia and even Nigeria-South Korea isn't all that clear to me. I would give Iraq a good chance against Burkina Faso, and would pick North Korea over Libya, but I certainly don't know enough about these teams than going by my general impressions.
You can post your view of what will happen in these match ups but so far the results (as computed by ELO and H2H records) that exist often contradict what you think would happen.
The funny thing is that I am as familiar with the capabilities of these Middle East countries as you are if not more because Morocco often plays them with the B or C team and still wins easily. Morocco even won the Arab cup in 2012 with its C team.
Also, your H2H record is a joke because if you think that African countries will field their first teams (with Europe based players) against Oman or Qatar or the UAE or Jordan then you don't know how this sport works.. Those countries are just too weak footballistically to be taken seriously..