Man, I saw Peter King trending and thought Brummie was gonna get another. But it turns out he just called Bannon a "sloppy drunk." I could go for a knives-out, internecine GOP bloodbath over the next half-decade or so, tbh. That'd make me feel good.
You had dinner with Ben Carson!!! Awesome!!! I saw a 2018 breakdown that had it in the same category as Tennessee, a longshot but not impossible. I have no inside knowledge, but I just disagreed because the Dems already have a really good candidate in Tennessee, and for all Cruz' weaknesses, he's an incumbent. So you can count it if you want to. That lazy take pisses me off no end. As if 2006 wasn't wave election for the Dems. Just another example of conservative media bias.
If those numbers don't scare the living hell out of the R's, I don't know what will. If those numbers stay in that range, it will be a bloodbath. 15% Points in the generic congressional ballot do spell disaster for the GOP in November. 941236877620842496 is not a valid tweet id
#BREAKING: House Speaker Paul Ryan considering retirement after 2018 midterms https://t.co/5cYNlzqFfW pic.twitter.com/wFNa0j7cIe— POLITICO (@politico) December 14, 2017
I know it's silly, but for as long as I can remember, I have laughed a little when I hear a congressional figure described as a minority leader.
At this point it's more than Alabama. We've had 70 special elections since Trump was inaugurated. Democrats are over performing the partisan lean by an average of 12 points. This is a combination of many states ... Alabama, Virginia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, New Jersey, Maine, Utah, Washington, Kansas etc ... We're beyond the small sample size excuse. We know what the backlash is and we can measure it pretty accurately. GOP would need a massive event to make a turnaround before November. That would be either a defensive war, a major terror attack or a new chapter in Russia's attacks on the US.
Here's the list of most vulnerable Republicans right now : Arizona #2 (SE Tucson) - Martha McSally California #10 (Northern San Joaquin Co.) - Jeff Denham California #25 (North LA Co., Ventura Co.) - Steve Knight California #45 (Orange Co.) - Mimi Walters California #48 (Orange Co.) - Dana Rohrbacher California #49 (Coastal San Diego Co.) - Darrell Issa Colorado #6 (Aurora, east Denver metro) - Mike Coffman Florida #26 (Monroe Co.) - Carlos Curbelo Florida #27 (Miami) - Ileana Ros Lehtinen Illinois #6 (Chicago suburbs) - Peter Roskam Iowa #1 (Dubuque, Cedar Rapids) - Rod Blum Michigan #11 (NW Detroit suburbs) - Dave Trott Minnesota #2 (SE twin cities suburbs) - Jason Lewis Nebraska #2 (Omaha) - Don Bacon New Jersey #2 (Southern NJ) - Frank Lo Biondo New Jersey #11 (Morris Co.) - Rodney Frelinghuysen New York #19 (Hudson Valley) - John Faso New York #22 (Utica, Rome) - Claudia Tenney Texas #7 (Western Harris Co.) - John Culbertson Texas #23 (Border region) - Will Hurd Virginia #10 (Loudoun Co.) - Barbara Comstock Washington #8 (Eastern King & Pierce Cos.) - Dave Reichert This is what is most vulnerable for Democrats : Minnesota #1 (Southern MN) - Tim Walz Minnesota #8 (Duluth) - Rick Nolan Nevada #3 (South Las Vegas) - Jacky Rosen New Hampshire #1 (Manchester) - Carol Shea Porter New Jersey #5 (Northern NJ) - Josh Gottheimer Democrats have almost a 5 to 1 offense to defense ratio advantage.
Ileana Ross is retiring in Fl # 27/ Miami. It is almost certainly a pick up for the D. She represented one of the most liberals districts in Fl.
Interesting. “Lipinski, one of the few remaining conservative Democrats in Congress, is under siege from the left, battling for his political life against progressives who are teaming up to replace him with a candidate far more in line with liberal orthodoxy. That candidate, Marie Newman, a businesswoman and former marketing consultant, already has high-profile endorsements from feminist icon Gloria Steinem and New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand — an unusual show of opposition against a fellow Democratic congressional incumbent. Newman has also received a rare joint endorsement from a handful of influential progressive groups: NARAL, MoveOn.org, Democracy for America, Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Human Rights Campaign. .... Lipinski is something of an exotic species: a Democrat who opposes abortion and cast votes against both the Affordable Care Act and the DREAM Act, which sought to provide a pathway to citizenship for young undocumented immigrants.” https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/16/dan-lipinski-conservative-democrat-election-299572
It is possible to be against abortion and liberal. Heaven forbid we adopt sensible family-planning in this country.
The guy makes Machin look liberal...probably and easy target for those Bernie Bros or Beckys looking for a win
This is very legit, this is where the fights should be, hopefully the Democratic establishment does not "cheat" and let the primary play out (I am sure they will throw "free speech" at Lipinski). I do not know how conservative the 3rd Illinois district may be. But if the wave election does happen, this can be a good chance of the hard left to win some. Just like the Tea Party cost Republicans a few seats at first, some winnable seats may be lost due to primary challenges from the left, but fvck it, the voters decide, and if the voters pull left, so be it. So be it, we want an exited and voting grass roots, this is the price to pay. A Democratic Tea Party may be coming, you have to get used to it.
It's not conservative. Clinton won it by 15 and Obama won it by 13. The seat was passed down from father to son though, so Lipinski's incumbency advantage is probably going to be stronger than normal.
18 points edge now for the D's. That is simply unheard of. It is more than a wave coming towards the R's, it is a tsunami. A new CNN poll finds that 56% of voters say they favor a Democrat in their congressional district, while 38% prefer a Republican. “That 18-point edge is the widest Democrats have held in CNN polling on the 2018 contests, and the largest at this point in midterm election cycles dating back two decades.”
The tax bill is very unpopular. You sense it on social media, comments sections and just anecdotally in day to day life. I'm about 10x more likely to find a conservative who doesn't like it over a liberal that does like it. That's not to say that the GOP base hasn't fallen in line. This is being sold heavily on their propaganda networks. That's pretty much the 38% in this poll, similar to the 37% approval that Trump has. But everything outside that base has eroded down to zero. All the selling on Fox News can't make that number go much higher. Their only hope is that the economy is still strong in 11 months. Then they can say "see, we were right". Of course anyone with a brain cell understands that the fallout from a big bill like this takes way more than 11 months, but for a certain subsection of idiots, that logic will work. Especially when that voter is already predisposed to dislike Democrats on some other hot button issue like guns or immigration.
Trump rode the wave of being tough on businesses who were laying off people, especially those who outsourced out. If it seems they are getting a handout and no incentive/force is put to make them hire here other than we hope this money makes you re-consider, then this bill won't do much for that. A lot of these people saw companies get tax breaks and do nothing. Just look that the Carrier plant Trump "saved".
There is so much material for the D's to campaign on and to hammer the R's with it is almost surreal. The ads write themselves out.
I think I'm going to be off by three - I really expected a few resignations before Christmas. I was wrong. However. I predict quite a few resignations in the next few weeks. https://politicalwire.com/2017/12/21/cochran-expected-resign-next-year/ https://politicalwire.com/2017/12/21/blue-wave-forming/ https://politicalwire.com/2017/12/20/extra-bonus-quote-day-108/ So I'll admit defeat on this, but will glady anticipate Republican retirements in January.
I expect the same as well. Those suckers will need to get out and start to cash in on the heist they did this week. Anyway, folks, read the thread. Those numbers, mostly polled before the #ScamTax law passed, should frighten the R's in Congress. They are simply unreal. I can't wait for next November. I am planning to take some time off work to help in any way possible. The generic ballot polling certainly looks great for Democrats, but how is that playing out at the district level? We've polled 36 GOP held Congressional districts since October. Here's what we've found...— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) December 20, 2017