Does Brummie get credit for Corker? Also, so far the Dems are flipping about 30% of red seats they contest in special elections. If that applies to the midterm house elections, they'll pick up 80ish seats – right in line with Brummie's predictions. He's obnoxious but I hope he's right.
I was just typing this when Matrim posted. Bob Corker, Republican senator from Tennessee, is retiring. I thought Brummie specified the House, but he says "incumbents" without specifying the House or Senate, so that counts for him. He's up to three.
I'm only counting the House. Don't worry. They're coming. Corker represents a faction of Southern, old-school Republicans. You might as well call them "Red Dogs."
I'm not a genius, but if I had to predict an incumbent retirement... http://www.post-gazette.com/news/po...ff-congress-emails-texts/stories/201710030018 This story has everything. Sex. Drugs(?). Erratic driving. Anger.
It's really hard to keep an eye on rising stars right now because every GOP held district has like 7000 Democrats running to challenge. This is by far the most dynamic Democratic recruitment campaigns I've ever seen in my life. I like this guy Kopser who is running in Democratic primary in Lamar Smith's district in Texas.
Yup. I predict that the Virginia House of Delegates election is going to be the bellwether for a lot of these guys. Health care repeal failed, tax cuts are sputtering already, but if Democrats get a hefty swing in the state legislative elections, the anecdotal evidence from special elections will be corroborated. So if the elections net the Democrats +5 seats or more, then the next week will be a series of private polls and retirements.
We have a Democratic retirement in New Hampshire ... Carol Shea-Porter. http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/06/politics/new-hampshire-carol-shea-porter-retires/index.html I know we're not supposed to like retirements, but this one is very good news for Democrats. This is the district that has been going back and forth between Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Giunta every two years since 2010. The logical progression of that trend would have meant Shea-Porter losing again. The voters are tired of being stuck with these same two options that they've already rejected in the past.
Incumbents retire for three reasons: 1) To spend more time with their families. 2) To spend more time with their families. 3) To spend more time with their families. I imagine Shea-Porter's is the first option.
918566056142176256 is not a valid tweet id Given California's top-two primary, this isn't wrong. You're potentially looking at gubernatorial and senate races in California with no GOPer on the general election ballot. Will GOPers even vote in that circumstance? Not in big numbers. That said, I expect the Dems to screw this up by putting up too many contenders, lowering the bar for second place, and making it easier for the GOP to stay in the game for the general election. I'll be really impressed if party forces can limit the field to prevent that from happening.
Fox News poll: GOP, Dem candidates tied in Alabama Senate race I don't expect it to stay close because Alabamans are fundamentally ignorant sub-humans but the fact that this race is even on the radar is shocking.
TIBERI OUTw/@jmartNYT -- senior Ohio Republican plans early exit as frustration builds in DC >>https://t.co/YhJR2qzcZn— Alex Burns (@alexanderburns) October 19, 2017 Another one for Brummie.
That's nuts. He was my Congressman when I lived in Ohio. Tiberi could have held that seat until he was 120 years old. Unless Trump is really THAT unpopular. Come to think of it, Tiberi's district (Delaware and Franklin counties) has become much more liberal, and while it voted 70-30 for Bush in 2004, voted for Trump 52-48.
Holy moly! Flake will not run for re-election. "There may not be a place for a Republican like me" in Trump GOP. https://t.co/wH7aIq6ImO— Once @senyorreporter, but always Tim Steller 🦉 (@timothysteller) October 24, 2017
RCP's only poll had his opponent up +26. http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Arizona-Senate-Executive-Summary.pdf
What many members of the Democratic coalition do not get about mid-term and off shoot local elections. This may be a good reason for far lefties to not vote in Virginia, sacrifice a governors mansion (one of the few) and some house of reps seats for a "I told you so" moment. http://theweek.com/articles/731877/two-upcoming-gubernatorial-races-could-spell-disaster-republicans
There's a few, but Kyrsten Sinema seems like the strongest candidate. She's a moderate Democrat who nonetheless hits a lot of the right notes for an Arizona electorate.
Can we replace this term? "Within the Democratic Party, which is quite liberal these days, she is relatively moderate." http://www.people-press.org/interactives/political-polarization-1994-2015/ There aren't that many moderates any more.