I don't know. Iceland has been riding the lucky bus this entire cycle. Survived in Ukraine, due to Ukraine missing on a late penalty kick. Scored two goals at death to escape Finland, scored a goal at death to beat Croatia. Iceland's lucky streak finally came to an end against Finland.
74. China (eliminated by the Uzbekistan - South Korea draw) 73. Uzbekistan (eliminated deep in extra time with a Syria equalizer vs Iran - Syria move on to the play-off)
This is ridiculous, 9 european qualifiers playing, and its already half time, and no goals scored in 7/9 of the games? What the heck?
I imagine Mahrez will probably not.be called up for a long time after his stupidity of leaving to sign with his new team, which turned out to be a farce.
Estonia is eliminated. They can only get to 14. They can finish second place, but every other group must have a team with at least 15. Group D: Wales and Ireland play each other, so one will have 15 or more..
Austria's Needs to finish 2nd: On 6 October: Austria beats Serbia, Moldova or draws wins at Ireland, and Georgia beats Wales. On 10 October: Austria beats Moldova and Wales and Ireland draw. If Moldova draws at Ireland, then Austria has to win their games by at least 6 goals and overcome to overcome the goal differential. To qualify for the Playoffs, Austria also needs to not be the worst Second Place Team. Group H is the only group with a possibility of not having a team with 15 points or more. Bosnia would have to lose to Belgium and at Estonia. (or one draw and a disastrous goal differential in the loss) Greece would have to have to lose or draw to Cyprus and Gibraltar.
AFAIK the UEFA second-placed teams are still going to be ranked ignoring the results against the bottom-placed team. By this measure Estonia have 5 points at the moment and will reach 8 if they make second place, because one of their remaining games is against Gibraltar (who are guaranteed to remain bottom). Some of the other groups are more complicated than this, the bottom team could change. It seems to me this makes it hugely complicated as to whether Estonia are (technically) eliminated yet, and I don't see that anyone has done all the calculations. Or have they? Edit: OK, reading further back up the thread, it looks like it's covered! Amazing. Let's see if I can get my head around it - probably not.
I actually thought England was playing Slovakia, not Slovenia today. So both Scotland and Slovenia have a good chance of going out too.
Harry Kane scored the only goal of England 1-0 Slovenia in stoppage time. Scotland 1-0 Slovakia moved Scotland to second. Scotland has 177 points, Slovakia has 15, and Slovenia has 14. All of them are alive, but Slovenia needs a miracle because they need Slovakia to not win hosting Malta. Slovenia hosts Scotland. Scotland will finish second if they win. Slovakia will finish second if they win and Scotland doesn't. Slovakia would win the goal differential tiebreaker with Scotland if they both get 18 points.
Just to add, Slovakia also have to be concerned about winding-up as the worst second-place team. But if Scotland beat Slovenia, they should be okay (in terms of reaching the playoffs). That last minute goal by Scotland was devastating to Slovakia's chances, and was necessary for Scotland to have any hope at all.
I am pretty sure the worst second placed team will be Bosnia or Greece (whoever finishes second) Bosnia has to play Belgium and Estonia. I expect Belgium to beat Bosnia. Estonia drew with Greece away, so I cannot rule out a victory or point for Estonia against Bosnia, and that game will be in Estonia. Greece play Cyprus and Gibraltar. Gibraltar will not count for second place ranks because they are last placed team. Cyprus at home can be tough to beat, and were able to beat Bosnia, so I cannot be sure Greece will win that.