Rank the expansion teams

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by jabbaahabbaa, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. JeepCSC

    JeepCSC New Member

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 8, 2017
    Raleigh's market is bigger than Nashville's with a trajectory that will have it above Cincinnati before the next census. Raleigh might have issues, but the market being too small is likely not one of them.
     
  2. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    There are too many possible expansion spots.to stop at 28. If the Canadian teams weren't in MLS, that would be 3 extra spots. The NBA has 31 US teams, NFL has 32, MLB has 29, and NHL has 24. The current round of expansion would leave MLS with 25 US teams. I think the market can sustain at least 29 US MLS clubs.
     
  3. tallguy

    tallguy Member+

    Sep 15, 2004
    MoCoLand, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that it's unlikely that MLS will ever expand to become a bigger league than the NFL or MLB. Ultimately, the issue is not how many North American teams can sustain professional soccer. The issue is whether adding additional cities will markedly improve the national broadcast and cablecast monies coming in from major media providers. If the existing investor/owners get to the point that their individual share of the pie isn't getting bigger, they will lose interest in adding expansion teams to the league.
     
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  4. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    As long as expansion drives per team sponsorship and broadcast revenues, there'll be expansion.

    Expansion fees are not a revenue stream in as much as the team paying the fee is buying 1/25th, 1/26th, 1/27th.... of MLS, LLC and SUM, LLC.

    It's a nice one time lump sum, but it disappears in short order when compared to the smaller slice of overall revenue - unless those revenues increase.

    Anyone curious as to the difference between lump sum and recurring payments should google/wikipedia the Spirits of Saint Louis (the most profitable sports team in the history of sports) and the absorption of the ABA into the NBA.

    Growing sponsorship and broadcast revenues is also why you'll likely see future expansion favor the south and the southwest. It's all about demographics. And people looking at the 2015 or 2016 census updates are missing the important numbers. The real question is what are these markets going to look like in 2035 or 2040.
     
  5. Unak78

    Unak78 BigSoccer Supporter

    Dec 17, 2007
    PSG & Enyimba FC
    Club:
    Chelsea FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Nigeria
    They've done so because they signed a contract with him giving him an option for a team. Depending on the exact wording, if they end up not giving him a team he may have a claim to financial compensation of some sort which they'd probably rather not give.
     
  6. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Does the market list also exclude Newport from Cincy? I'd expect it would. Yes? A lot of Cincy is in Kentucky.
     
  7. JeepCSC

    JeepCSC New Member

    Chelsea
    United States
    Aug 8, 2017
    The media market for Cincy covers three states (10 counties in Kentucky, 8 in Ohio, 6 in Indiana). There just seem to be less tv homes in the Cincy area compared to population for whatever reason.
     
  8. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    Big German Catholic families. we like having babies
     
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  9. TheRealBilbo

    TheRealBilbo Member+

    Apr 5, 2016
    Of course, crystal balls are enormously flawed.

    I've reached the conclusion that regardless of how you measure a market, be it census data, DMA population, or other, none of it really matters. For all practical purposes, any of these markets could support a team. There is very little difference between market 10 and market 40. Stadium capacities are .75 to 1.5% of the number of people in these towns.

    I guess a SSS is useful to get from MLS 1.0 to MLS 2.0. Heck, without an SSS, the Crew may have joined the Fusion and Mutiny. But, Atlanta is (will be?) playing in an NFL stadium, like Seattle. Of course, Atlanta shares its stadium with an NFL team that it shares an owner with (like New England and Seattle).

    Of the 12 applicants, about 8 are currently viable, by our standards, and of those, 4 will get a team.

    It will be interesting to see how this ends.
     
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  10. USFootiefan1980

    LAFC
    United States
    Aug 19, 2005
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Cincy Liverpool fan repped this.
  11. midfielder467

    midfielder467 Member

    Jul 20, 2014
    Club:
    Central Coast Mariners
    From Australia and our A-League is roughly 12 years behind the MLS is age but similar in set up.

    I have been watching closely your team selection, with the 12 bids. It gave me an idea of using a Belgium system … sorry not close enough to suggest I understand your sports market well enough … however tis interesting to consider …

    In Australia we have our own issues today, two essentially one is who has control of Football, now it’s a small group, the Football community have asked FIFA to enforce the controlling group to be expanded and second is many what a second division and P & R in time. Currently we have a closed tier system with franchise / licence issues to clubs very similar to the MLS…

    Back to my Belgium system. Which some over here are looking at and putting into an MLS context.

    Top Division 28 teams with East & West 14 teams each, much like it is now.

    Meaning you will select 4 teams from the 12 bids, assuming Becks gets in, and thus you have 28 teams.

    This leaves 8 bids, you could create a kinda MLS 2, of 8 teams.

    The MLS 2, play each other say 3 times meaning 21 rounds, maybe twice and 14 rounds.

    The top 4 teams in MLS 2, would play the bottom 4 teams in MLS 1, over two rounds with the top 4 teams going to MLS 1.

    The existing MLS 1 teams would have an advantage in spending over the MLS 2 teams, but it provides for P & R within a closed system and expands the market and would be a point of difference to other codes.

    You keep all teams, and maybe the bottom 8 teams can built smaller stadiums capable of a easy upgrade should they win through to MLS 1.

    Bye for now and Cheers
     
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  12. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    The more I think about it while looking at the distribution of current clubs, The more I believe that the next 5 teams (assuming they can put together a decent stadium proposal) will be Miami, Phoenix, Detroit, Nashville, and Charlotte/Raleigh. I know, "where's Sacramento and Cinci" you ask? Well, they're simply too close to existing clubs and will be vetoed by the owners on that basis and Tampa would oversaturate the Florida market. Meanwhile the teams I mentioned bring top-30 TV markets and plug the largest gaps in the MLS geographic footprint across the US. I think all other factors being considered, that's what MLS is looking for.
     
  13. whiteonrice04

    whiteonrice04 Member+

    Sep 8, 2006
    not arguing with you but MLS headquarters does like local rivalries. look at NY and LA.
     
  14. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    There will be no pro/rel. The USA/Canada have 59 or 60 metro areas with over one million people.

    How many does Australia/NZ?

    The Australian A-League is not "12 years behind" MLS. It's a completely different league in a completely different market.

    Cheers
     
  15. FlipsLikeAPancake

    Jul 6, 2010
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that's a bit different. New York and LA are by far the two largest markets in the country. Even half of those markets aee larger than pretty much any market. They are also glamour markets that attract star players and which could theoretically boost TV ratings and away attendance. Yes having the rivalries is nice too, but I don't think it's the key factor.

    So I think from MLS's perspective, they get a lot of benefit from having two teams in LA and NY that they don't get from having two teams in Northern California, Ohio or Central Florida.

    That's not to discount Sacramento, Cincinnati or Tampa Bay, just to say the NYC and LA examples aren't really comparable.
     
  16. Traumer

    Traumer Member

    Feb 25, 2016
    Cincinnati
    I get this line of thought, but I'd argue rivalries are good for leagues. Cincinnati being close to Louisville has led to Louisville have best days at the gates when they play Cincinnati. I think Columbus would benefit as opposed to suffer having competition.
     
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  17. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    #SellTheCrew
     
  18. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    But seriously, been kind of observing the "ratings" thread on this site, your big markets mean exactly dick. Gotta put on the shows where the ppl are going to watch
     
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  19. midfielder467

    midfielder467 Member

    Jul 20, 2014
    Club:
    Central Coast Mariners
    How many does Australia/NZ? with over 1 million people..... 5

    Unless Wiki is wrong the MLS started in 1993 , the A-League in 2005 ... 12 years I think maybe not to the day but in general terms.

    Markets are similar as in both countries, Football in Australia like the US, is up against well established traditional codes who enjoy media support Football could only dream of.
     
  20. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    60 to 5 is not similar.

    How big is the A-League? 10 teams? That's 2 per market.

    In MLS it's less than 1 for every two.

    With pro/rel, it's almost impossible to have an A-League season without teams in Sydney and Melbourne. Broadcasters and sponsors and casual bandwagon fans will always have a home.

    That will never, ever be the case in the United States with New York and Los Angeles if you put in pro/rel. If the first division loses New York, you can kiss half the sponsors and much of the broadcast revenues goodbye.

    This is not new information. It's been mentioned and pointed out and discussed and reiterated time and time again.
     
  21. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    But it's not just to get people to watch, there is also the matter of setting up academies taking talent from the team's home state. I'm sure the USSF has been talking to MLS about developing talent for the USMNT. That is why such a value is placed on geographic markets. It's also what would give Raleigh an edge over Charlotte. Hundreds of fans already think nothing of travelling 4 hours to a game (well, at least TFC supporters do).
     
  22. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    Southwest Ohio, south east Indiana, nky....you should look up the number of youth soccer players. our (14-18 age groups) CUP teams (men's and women's) routinely challenge for nationals.
     
  23. Cincy Liverpool fan

    Fc Cincinnati
    Jun 16, 2015
    Cincinnati, USA
    Club:
    Cincinnati Kings
    And of course the crew got kicked out by the local clubs a few years ago for using them like an ATM.
     
  24. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    That sounds like what happened with TFC in their first few years. Local clubs weren't happy with their holier-than-thou attitude to player development. They've learned a lot since then and are working with the clubs instead of against them and have started to develop a decent pipeline with clubs from throughout Ontario, using the OPDL as a scouting ground.
     
  25. Coyote89

    Coyote89 Member

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 18, 2017
    Late to this thread, but here are my rankings:

    1. Sacramento: Seems like they've almost been guaranteed a slot and work has already begun on a downtown stadium. Not sure how expansion could move forward without them at this point.
    2. Detroit: Largest remaining market without a team, strong ownership group, fast-track stadium plan, and fills a geographic gap in the MLS footprint.
    3. Phoenix: Another large market without a team that could soon out-grow Detroit. Good demographics for soccer, and they seem to have their act together on financing and a stadium plan.
    4. Nashville: Rapidly growing city that showed enormous support for the Predators of the NHL despite their modest size. Lots of millennials and a town specifically known for entertainment. Good turnouts to international matches. Moving up the list fast. My only hesitation here is that it's not a big media market that could be important. For the same reasons, I question how strong a candidate San Antonio really is.
    5. Cincinnati: Does adding Cincy help or hurt Columbus? The answer to that question could determine their fate because otherwise, they'd be a slam dunk given the huge support for their USL team.
    6. San Diego: My understanding is the huge SoccerCity initiative is currently on hold and I still have doubts about MLS putting a 5th team in California when there are other large markets that lack a team.
    Dark Horse: St. Louis. They were among the top 2-3 favorites until voters rebuked a request for a partly publicly-financed stadium. But something tells me they could be back in the mix before its over. Large market, tons of soccer fans, and the city recently lost its NFL franchise for a 2nd time and will be motivated to bring some good news to local sports fans. Plus, that city has great support for both MLB and the NHL.

    If the decision were mine, I'd go with the top 3, plus I'd patiently wait for St. Louis to get the stadium situation worked out and make them team #28. All of these cities have potential to be good for soccer, but I think the size of the TV markets and national footprint can and should be the tie-breaker as the value of the TV deal is the key to growing the league. If MLS is going to increase the TAM, DNPs, salary cap, etc. while also paying down all the debt from the massive wave of new stadium projects, training facilities, and academy investments, they need every dollar they can squeeze out of the next TV deal.

    That would suck for Cincy in particular to be left out, but I'd rather fold another struggling franchise to create an opportunity for them than to pass on any of the large markets.
     

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