If MLS is any indication, a hefty percentage of CPL's revenues will be tied to game day revenue. This is true pretty much around the world, with EPL and their billion dollar tv deals being the only real exception.. CPL teams will likely have this same problem, they'll have smaller home markets on top of that though.. I'm doubting the 5k-7k break even point if the salary numbers you're quoting is accurate.. NASL teams are losing millions a year with 1/3-1/2 the salary and their marketing is on a shoestring budget and they are around 4k average.. If CPL is to succeed, they'll need a larger marketing budget on top of their larger salary budget. Back in 2011, the Portland Timbers estimated that in order for them to break even, they'd need 10k-12k attendance and that was back when MLS's salary budget was $2.6 million, which I think is where you said CPL's would be. If the Timbers' estimate was accurate, that would seem to indicate the CPL's break even is low?
Perhaps it's about breaking even as a league with bigger markets compensating for smaller ones? I don't see how it's possible in early seasons without a good TV deal. Seems they weren't kidding about losing money for a while. I do believe them when they say the league's financial success won't be dependant on ticket sales. Well, I believe that's their goal anyhow. If you look at the NHL, they figured it out. You can put in "uncle Gary" face that team in the desert have empty arena but he doesn't care. He wants to be present in every major TV markets in the States. The TV contracts, revenue sharing and even the players paying a tax gives him the luxury to giggles at the mention of empty arenas. That's why I think they are aiming for that. As Beirne said, they want to be in every Canadian markets, not rely on gates income and still invest enough money in talents to be the 3rd highest paying league in CONCACAF. A system like the NHL with viewership in the ballpark of the CFL is the only way to achieve that. Hence my biggest worry was always TV over attendances. They will have to be creative like using other medias that gives them extra revenues as an example...whatever it takes. Can they reach the level of viewership if CFL? You see my worry about TV? It's possible but it will take time and loads of cash to build the product up to attract that viewership to that level. I hope so but I'm divided on that. Best to aim at matching MLS viewership in Canada first to make the argument that they deserve a decent TV deal. But I have to agree that finding a model that doesn't make you dependant on gates revenue long term is a good tactic if that's what they're trying to do
My problem is how feasible is any of your statement? If your salary numbers are right, CPL is going to be starting out at a salary budget of where MLS was back around 2010, but CPL's revenue is going to be a fraction of MLS's. That's going to result in a crapton of losses for CPL. Now, obviously, the owners seem willing to accept the losses, but I'm just not sure they can rely on TV contracts to pay for their salaries even at a future date. NHL gets about ~CAD$400 million a year from Rogers and and ~USD$200 million NBC deals, using that as a benchmark simply isn't feasible. MLS is getting a fraction of that in their US and Canadian deals and, to be honest, isn't likely to get up there any time soon. Even if we take the CFL's smaller ~CAD$50 million number, I'm just not seeing how CPL can get there considering MLS's Canadian tv deals. If we take out TV as a viable revenue source, we're looking at just merchandise, sponsorships, and game day revenue. All of which are going to be lower than MLS's in 2011 and, TBF, a very tough row to hoe with the three biggest markets taken up by MLS teams that are likely to keep well ahead of them in revenue and player salaries for the foreseeable future.
All excellent points. It's feasible (CFL benchmark)but it will be costly and take time to build the league to that point. 16 teams within 10 years is very ambitious to me. We always assumed the league would max out at 12. 16 so fast seems like a way to cover every major TV markets in Canada which help increase the value of a future deal. (They aren't getting much on their 1st deal). But to build the league to the point of generating viewership and attendance worthy of the CFL, it will take lots of capital for a long time. Beirne in his latest interview pointed out that it was being told to potential owners putting emphasis into buying into a product that will raise in value, same thing that was done in MLS. However, I believe the business model and how the league is being built for 10 years in the future will be different than MLS. I'm still divided between optimism and pessimism on that. The question that was raised about what happens in a worst case scenario... Don't know, if CPL isn't allowed to fail, they would have to greatly reduce the scope of the league, mainly the quality of the league, perhaps teams. That's why ownership is so important, you can't get that part wrong. So far, the 2 confirmed teams are CFL owners. They are off to a great start. Halifax? That company handling the team could be great managers, I doubt they are the ones backing the team financially. One thing is sure though, CPL will never succeed without the big 3 cities and there's no way CPL doesn't enters those markets. That will be the hardest part since it will be key to the league's future. Can't succeed without T.O, MTL and VAN. Dream scenario? Vancouver and Montreal owners being both the Habs (Molson) and Canucks (Aquili). Toronto? I saw the ownership interested in Toronto and 2 of them are beyond solid
News from Edmonton Steven Sandor was on Soccer Today yesterday and had a few Edmonton/CPL insights The potential involvement of the NHL Edmonton Oilers as financial backers/partnership with FC Edmonton is huge. The Oilers are owned by the Katz Group. which fit with the "very deep pockets" profile. He was interested in bringing an MLS Franchise to Edmonton in the past before MLS said there would be no more expansion in Canada. This would facilitate FC Edmonton transition into CPL and upgrade their current facility or build a new one. There was noise that a new soccer specific stadium could be built in Edmonton. As I said before, ownership is key to a successful league and the Edmonton Oilers have the marketing machine to help the team. Yes, there have been "talks/speculation" on Edmonton and Calgary supporting more than 1 team. Each cities are divided by a river and some would like a team on each side. If you ask me, it's a given that the NHL Calgary Flames will own the CPL club in Calgary and if the NHL Oilers partners with FC Edmonton, I wish whoever wants to compete with them the best of luck... Those 2 potential owners are going after the entire city, "sharing" isn't something they would entertained and I don't think it's a good idea to try. Fath, owner of Edmonton FC, softening his views on CPL was inevitable. If he gets backed by the Oilers, operating in CPL becomes much easier and lest costly. Paying players in Canadian dollars and not having to fly all over the continent helps a lot. Regarding Fath's view on ownership structure, the individual model won't happen in CPL. He'll have to live with that, however, I doubt CPL will be single entity. Its most likely will be some form of collective ownership with a very high revenue sharing model like the NHL. Whatever the CPL will be doing, it can't be worse than NASL
Hearing that the Oilers and FCE are in talks gives me hope that maybe the Ottawa Senators owner Melnyk and OSEG could open up for talks about sharing the costs of a CPL franchise for the Fury. As for ownership structure, they could probably do individual ownership, but centralize some of the more inequitable parts of operating a soccer club. I'm specifically thinking of travel and accommodations - a group of teams clustered around Southern Ontario would have an operational cost advantage in that they could bus to-and-from a lot of their games in a way that other teams in the league could not. If there was a department at the central league office that coordinated and paid for all travel and accommodation expenses (and set a salary cap), that would help remove some of the biggest obstacles to league success and go a long way towards leveling the playing field, especially for teams on Vancouver Island and Newfoundland. Perhaps every club would have to pay a monthly admin fee to the league for these perks and factor it into their operating budget. If the owners were responsible for everything else (marketing, stadium, etc), I don't think they could point the finger of blame at anybody else other than themselves if their club fails.
The other good news about that it that if the Oilers and Flames gets involved, it might like you said, help convince the Habs in Montreal, Canucks in Vancouver and Jets in Winnipeg to partner with those teams. Melnyk was close to bringing MLS to Ottawa and was prepared to build a soccer specific stadium but when the league decided against expansions in Canada, OSEG brought NASL to Ottawa and got Lansdowne Stadium renovated which became the new TD Stadium. I'm still convinced that only the Canucks and Canadiens ownership could rivaled both Impact and Whitecaps right from the beginning. They're marketing machine and ties to their respective cities is even deeper than the current MLS clubs
From Saskatchewan Visiting #Brita Stadium in Wiesbaden Germany today. One of these would look great in #Saskatchewan...#CanPL pic.twitter.com/aSsY2TI4RB— Joe Belan (@JoeBelan) June 23, 2017 Who's Joe Belan? (Credit to a fellow Voyageurs for this info) Former Goldman Sachs investment banker, ex CEO of a mining firm, founder and chairman of a holdings company of some kind (NovaTrek Capital), and also looks like director of a Chinese/Canadian mining company https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?mid=ccnm.20160816.201608161066139001 Exactly the type of ownership of investor part of a group of owner CPL needs. I would prefer a "Regina" or "Saskatoon" not a Saskatchewan team. The province can support 2 clubs and the league needs a rivalry between both cities
Some more photos from my stadium due diligence trip today #BritaArena #CanPL - nice sight lines and very intimate pic.twitter.com/q2CxPEq0SV— Joe Belan (@JoeBelan) June 23, 2017
You could have 25 of these stadiums across #Canada for the same cost as 1 (yes 1!!) new NHL arena #CanPL #rugbycanada pic.twitter.com/X2MD1HUq7R— Joe Belan (@JoeBelan) June 23, 2017 Consider Economic impact of CPL:-500+ new full-time jobs-Thousands of part-time jobs-Tens of millions of $ of NEW tax revenue for govt!— Joe Belan (@JoeBelan) June 23, 2017
If, as we have heard, the owners are prepping for years of losses......where does the tens of millions of tax revenue come from? More likely is the owners set off their losses against other taxable revenue they have and governments see a net reduction in tax revenue.
He obviously means the tax revenues from ticket sales, bars, accommodations etc... related to a team contributing to local economies which in turns provides tax revenues as well. It's pretty much the same argument all major sport teams use to justify to get governments to spend.
Not sure what you're trying to say or insinuate but plenty of example of where a sport team losing money still generate new revenues in taxes through different streams. Just look at uncle Gary and his obsession with southern US as a hockey market
yes, the commissioner of the NHL (and other sports execs) sometimes make claims when trying to get arenas built that just are not true. Ask the people of Glendale if, on a net basis, they have generated the sort of revenue that was promised. I was not insinuating anything....I am flat out saying it if CPL clubs are drawing the sort of crowds that spin off enough business (on ticket sales and bar sales and bar sales, etc) to generate "tens of millions" of new tax revenue....then the league itself will be in the black....cause that needs a lot of people spending a lot of money to generate that sort of tax revenue.
Interesting survey result regarding likelihood of supporting CPL, MLS or both among current MLS Canadian supporter's groups. 27 minute mark http://www.northernstartingeleven.com/canada-soccer-sea-to-sea-podcast-season-2-episode-4/
A TTC token to get to the game: $3.25 A ticket to the game: $40 The Canadian Premier League buying adds in the middle of the Canadian Premier League at BMO Field in Toronto FC's house: PRICELESS
^The Canadian Championship is owned by the CSA and all advertising is sold by them.....this ad was/is not surprising.
^ Still fun to see and glad to see the league is trying to get itself know. From early feedback, this intrigued a lot of people not aware of its existence
I guess, for those of us that have been around BMO for a while, it was no more intriguing or interesting than the nights we used to go to these matches and all the ads were for CIBC ....which, at a stadium named BMO, was quite a stark contrast to regular league matches.
This is not official news and to be taken with a grain of salt. However, Totera tweeted a lot about CPL before it became reality and skeptics (including me) thought he was making stuff up and trying to get attention... he ended up being not only right on all the stuff he tweeted before CPL sanctioning but was personally invited to the CSA meeting which sanctioned CPL as Division 1. Safe to say he has inside contacts so here's what he tweeted recently: Ottawa Langley Saskatoon Winnipeg Calgary Edmonton Hamilton Halifax>Toronto QuebecCity Markham Regina our league for our players #2018 #2019— A. Totera (@4totera) July 1, 2017 London Kitchener/Waterloo #2019 Mississauga Victoria #2020 our league for our players for our coaches for us 🇨🇦— A. Totera (@4totera) July 1, 2017 Niagara Falls Burnaby St Johns #2021 🇨🇦— A. Totera (@4totera) July 1, 2017
So my interpretation: 2018-2019 (First teams in 2018 plus expansion in 2019 or all at once in 2019) Langley, British Columbia (Fraser Valley) Calgary, Alberta Edmonton, Alberta (Most likely FC Edmonton quitting NASL and upgrade for CPL) Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Regina, Saskatchewan Winnipeg, Manitoba Hamilton, Ontario Toronto, Ontario Markham, Ontario (York Region) Ottawa, Ontario (Most likely Ottawa Fury quitting USL and upgrading for CPL) Quebec City, Quebec Halifax, Nova Scotia 2019 London, Ontario (Maybe FC London being bought and upgraded) Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, Ontario (Tri-City, K-W United are expected to be the team being upgraded to CPL) 2020 Mississauga, Ontario Victoria, British Columbia (Vancouver Island) 2021 Niagara Falls, Ontario (including St.Catharines area and possibly will try to draw people from Buffalo) Burnaby, British Columbia (Metro Vancouver, very likely they will use the name Vancouver) St.John's, Newfoundland Remarks: If true, CPL does indeed plan to take over most of the country unnocupied by USSF leagues. CPL plans to penetrate the 3 big markets with a Toronto team and Vancouver team (Burnaby) Montreal missing is a concern but at anytime, an investor could show up to bid for an expansion in the Island or Laval The coverage is great except Montreal metro missing Saskatchewan derby will be interesting and the best way to draw fans Langley being ahead of Surrey is a surprise, and minor concern...perhaps Surrey will join D2 down the road If all the above is true, seems like CPL is definatly taking the European route over MLS/American approach at defining viable markets.
I could see FCE joining in 2018 if the NASL folds at the end of this season, but Ottawa and Edmonton probably wouldn't join the CPL until 2019 as there's no point in playing for half a season. But that '>' makes me think Toronto, Markham, Regina, Quebec City would be the late entries into the league starting 2019. Still, that's 19 teams in 4 years. Even if only two-thirds of the teams prove to be viable, that's a 12-club league that's on par with any other COCACAF Div 1 League that's not MLS or Liga MX.
What is the attraction to Langley? Pretty small place without a soccer stadium (as far as I know) but ignoring Burnaby until 2021 when they have a facility and a larger population and better transit......any idea why the lower mainland is being viewed that way?
I honestly have no clue. I thought Surrey made more sense but they are right next to each other... Perhaps the potential owner wants it there. Just hoping he has the business case to back it up.