If someone thinks 17k attendance for an MLS team is remotely disappointing or cause for concern needs to get their head checked.
First year club, with the hype surrounding new MLS teams; yeah, 17k is concerning (or underwhelming to say the least) I believe its the worst performing expansion team in its inaugural year (so far) since 2011. Still early obviously, but a big drop off from the first game for Minny
I'm in the "troubling sign" group. I think the expectations of a first year club should be above the league average. To hit 30K in the first game, and then have the drop off the way the are, is not good. If Minny maintains a 17k average, they will be the worst performing first year club since 2011. For a market as hyped as they were, Minny is laying a big egg IMO, despite what ATL is doing. Minny has (had- likely missed the boat on first year) the opportunity for a double hype; similar to Orlando. Celebrate the first season with a big push, and then follow up with a new stadium opening. I don't see any upside to softballing the first season, if that's what they're doing.
Based on what I've seen from MNU posters, the dropoff is largely a function of the team not really marketing right now. That's one reason why I'm not really in the concerned group right now. If they are able to get 17k with little to no marketing, once they get their stadium and start actually marketing the team, they should do fine.
I would like to know which "big market" television regions are without an MLS team. My guess is that there are 5: Miami, Tampa, Detroit, San Diego and Phoenix.
Not to nitpick but...........most leagues have TWO teams in NY and LA (and Baseball also has two in Chicago)......so we are really talking about 27-28 markets.....
Not really. All the major league sport leagues have their "small market" teams. Nothing wrong with that. With NY and LA being mega markets, I'd consider the rest of the top 10 to be the "big" markets. Markets 11-30 could be considered the medium to small markets (wherever you want to make that breakover point), with a few stragglers beyond 30.
The NHL has three in the NYC market. After the top ten, the drop is pretty significant. Hell, the fifth largest market (DFW) is just over half the size of the LA market. La (2) and Phoenix (12) together are just slightly larger than NYC by itself. Splitting the NYC market between three teams gives you the same market exposure per team that one team in the San Fran-Oakland-San Jose market has. There is a difference of roughly five million people between NYC (1) and Atlanta (10). Literally every market from 11-100 is closer in size to Atlanta than Atlanta is to NYC or LA. We're still over a million from Tama-St. Pete (11) through Nashville (29). With under a million in their markets, San Antonio (31) has NBA; Columbus (32) has MLS and NHL; KC (33) has MLS, MLB, and NFL; SLC (34) has MLS and NBA; Milwaukee (35) has MLB and NBA; Cincinnati (36) has NFL and MLB; Las Vegas (40) has NFL and NHL on the way; Jacksonville (47) has NFL; New Orleans (50) has NFL and NBA; Memphis (51) has NBA; Buffalo (53) has NHL and NFL; and Green Bay (68) has the NFL (though this is a big asterisk). Using Buffalo as our last market due to the other factors affecting Green Bay, you're talking about a market of less than 600,000 people. There are a ton of markets between Buffalo and Atlanta that could reasonably host major league teams, based solely on this metric. Given the relative size difference between these markets, there are no markets outside of the top ten that are essential. Hell, San Diego (29) is smaller than many other candidate cities: Indy (27), Raleigh-Durham (24), Charlotte (22), St. Louis (21), Sacramento (20), Miami (16), Detroit (13), Phoenix (12), and Tamp-St. Pete (11). Other markets larger than SD without MLS teams include Baltimore (26), Pittsburgh (23), and Cleveland (19). Combine this with two teams in LA and a team in Tijuana. San Diego does not appear to be a "must have" market in any sense of the word. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_television_markets
I suppose MLS wants to max out with respect to largest TV markets as it expands. There are other metrics, to be sure, particularly growth in the Sun Belt. But let's say they can get the next 5 biggest TV markets: Tampa, Phoenix, Detroit, Miami, Sacramento. That will take them to 28 from the 23 they have. The most they could expand to is 32, the size of the NFL. Then they might look for growth: San Diego, NC1, NC2, SanAntonio. (Maybe they go expansion crazy ala the old NASL and we end up with 51 teams in 3 divisions of 17 each.) edit: I left out Cincinnati, but they should find a way in even if it involves relocation.
And I'm also guessing that MLS is looking at where these markets will be in 20-30 years, not necessarily where they are today.
I wouldn't be shocked if MLS adds a third team to the New York/North Jersey/Connecticut market (i.e,., Long Island, Brooklyn or Hartford) or a second team to the Metropolitan Chicago market. After all, the NHL has three teams in The New York market and MLB has two teams in Chicago.
NC Courage are averaging 5,442, a good sign for soccer in NC, even though I think MLS would be reluctant to move into the state given the political atmosphere. The media market is too small.
Link? #24 Nielsen market (and growing faster than pretty much every other market - and being 1) better educated, 2) more professional, 3) more Hispanic, and 4) with better household spending power - than most of the rest of the field) for a 28 team league? What are you talking about? EDIT: Oh, wait, you mean the competition from the other four major professional sports leagues. Oh, wait. Hmm. I still got nothing.
I quoted the wrong post. A large percentage of NYCFC supporters seem come from Long Island. As for Hartford, the Bicentennials were a complete flop.
It seems that the pro soccer has not developed in Long Island as the Cosmos found out. It is still baseball territory. NFL/NBA/NHL have abandoned Long Island. Even George Washington retreated from Long Island. Market-wise, population-wise, it deserves its own team. But statistics don't tell you about the culture of the area.
Long Island has a population of 7.5 million of which 5 million live in NYC. The rest are spread across 1,000 square miles. It's 118 miles from one end to the other. They already have 3 teams to support. I'm not sure 2.5 million people spread across the 1,000 square miles is the sort of population density MLS is looking for.
Are you familiar with Dunkin Donuts Park? Hartford may not be so fertile as you've been led to believe. Particularly after that fiasco.
Don't worry about Minnesota, they will be just fine. Worry more about FC Dallas and Columbus, those are the weak apples. I think Dallas would be just fine with a better location.
You mean the FC Dallas that was a few hundred seats below selling out this past weekend and is 1,600 above where it was this time last season? FCD's "problem" isn't location.
Dallas' stadium, like Colorado's, is located in the suburbs between Dallas proper and Fort Worth. Now that they're winning after years of mediocrity or worse, they're doing just fine. Columbus has the misfortune of playing in a city dominated by Ohio State University football and in a stadium that's located in the middle of the state fairgrounds. They've drawn well in the past and a new stadium located in a more accessible neighborhood will help. There's no reason why soccer can't succeed in Columbus, which has a metropolitan area that's between Cincinnati and Cleveland in size.