Pre-match: Panama-USA World Cup Qualifier, 28 March 2017, Panama City, Panama

Thanks for the post and the nice words.

I agree that, in 2010, Ghana was possibly a more talented team than the U.S. And I thought that, overall, the U.S. played at least reasonably well in the match. But I do wonder if the U.S. did look past Ghana to some extent and was not at its best. The U.S. started slowly in the match. In the 5th minute, Ricardo Clark had a turnover that led to Ghana's first goal. And the U.S. wasn’t as crisp offensively as they had been at other times in the tournament. I remember the U.S. picking things up in the second half, but by that time they already were trailing 1-0.

But even if the U.S. did not look past Ghana at all and played their very best in the game, I think my point is still apt. It is important that the U.S. come out against Panama tomorrow incisively, coherently and firing on all cylinders. And I feel that the U.S. should press at the beginning of the game, much the way they did against Honduras on Friday night. If the U.S. does look past Panama, it could be hard for the U.S. to win, or even draw.

Jones may play against Panama. In fact, he may start in the match. But the claim of mine to which you may have been responding was not a claim about what is likely to happen. My claim was about what should happen. Or, perhaps more specifically, my claim was about what I would do if I were the coach.

After thinking about it more, I can see the case for starting Jones instead of either Darlington Nagbe or Alejandro Bedoya. First, under Jurgen Klinsmann, Jones sometimes played well at outside midfield in a diamond midfield in a 4-4-2 formation. In fact, Jones played well there against Ghana in the 2014 World Cup. In addition, as mentioned, Jones would be fresh for the Panama match; Nagbe and Bedoya would not be. Also, although Nagbe was good at keeping possession against Honduras, he was not particularly impactful in the match. He also exerted a lot of energy in the match. But I would be reluctant not to start Nagbe tomorrow, partly because of his ability to pass and control the ball well. He can help us keep possession against Panama.

Another option would be to start Jones at right midfield in a 4-4-2 diamond. He could start there instead of Bedoya. Or, Jones could start at left midfield, and Nagbe could start at right midfield.

If the U.S. starts in a diamond midfield, I don’t feel strongly about which two of Jones, Nagbe and Bedoya should start at the outside midfield spots. But if Jones has looked good in training, I might start him at right midfield and Nagbe at left midfield. Jones would bring fresh legs, and he has a good combination of skill, athleticism, defensive ability and experience.

I guess one problem with starting Jones at right midfield in a 4-4-2 diamond is that I don't remember him ever having played right midfield before. As I remember, when Klinsmann would play Jones at outside midfield in a diamond midfield, Jones always played left midfield. But, in a 4-4-2 diamond, it’s not that different playing right midfield than it is playing left midfield. I don’t know what I would do.

Ream’s speed is decent. But it’s not outstanding. Is it above average for an elite pro soccer player? I’m not sure.

As for whom the U.S. should start in the back against Panama, if Geoff Cameron is healthy, he should start either at center-back or right back. But should he start at center-back or right back?

I agree that, against Honduras on Friday night, Omar Gonzales was the weakest starter for the U.S. He had some bad passes and a couple positioning mistakes. But should Arena not start Gonzales against Panama? Sometimes the weakest starter in the previous game should start in the next game. Sometimes he is the best option available, for instance, because of cards and injuries. I would start Gonzales against Panama. His physical qualities, ability in the air, and his ability to play well against forwards who play with their back to him would help the U.S. against Panama. He also has good experience for the U.S. in important games, for instance, he played well in the 2014 World Cup. And he often has played well for the U.S. in important games, for instance, in the 2014 World Cup and in the U.S.’s 2-0 win in the World Cup qualifier against Panama in Seattle in 2013.

But should Arena start Cameron next to Gonzales at center-back? Or, should Arena start Cameron at right back and either Tim Ream or Matt Besler next to Gonzales at center-back? After thinking about it more, right now I think I would feel a little more comfortable with Arena’s starting Zusi at right back and Cameron and Gonzales at center-back than with his starting Cameron at right back and Gonzales and Ream at center-back. First, on Friday night against Honduras, Zusi played better than Ream. For instance, in the 81st minute, Ream had a turnover in a bad spot to Oscar Boniek Garcia. Boniek Garcia then dribbled around Ream and had a good opportunity to pass or shoot the ball in the U.S. box. In addition, it is so hard for me to judge Ream, since I haven’t seen him play soccer at the club level for a couple years. Also, when Ream has played center-back for the U.S., he’s been a little shaky. And it would be nice to have Cameron's skill, size, athleticism and experience in central defense. But how would Zusi likely do at right back against Panama? He’s a competitor, and he tends to play within himself. I guess I currently favor starting Zusi on the right and Cameron in the middle.

I’m also open to Matt Besler's starting at center-back next to Gonzales, with Cameron at right back. Besler has pretty good speed, excellent experience and is good at playing the ball out of the back. Also, Besler and Omar Gonzales have a lot of experience playing center-back next to each other, and they have tended to play well at center-back when they have played the position next to each other. In fact, they played well together at center-back when the U.S. beat Panama 2-0 in the World Cup qualifier in Seattle in 2013.

One concern I have about Besler is that, since the U.S.’s 4-0 loss to Costa Rica on November 15, 2016, he hasn’t played many competitive soccer matches. In fact, since the Costa Rica match, Besler has played only three matches at the MLS level (all in March) and none for the national team. Besler also doesn’t have the elite skill, athleticism and composure on the ball that Geoff Cameron does. But maybe Besler and Gonzales at center-back and Cameron at right back would be a better option than Zusi at right back and Cameron and Gonzales at center-back.

Enjoy the game in Panama! And if you have time, maybe you can go to the Atlantic coast, drive a little north, and visit Puerto Viejo in Costa Rica.

 

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/...e-pragmatic-panama-analysts-den?autoplay=true

Sorry if this has been posted, but we're all thinking that we go for the win here, right? I think we play 2 DM's, because I'm not comfortable with just Michael Bradley shielding the backline, but I don't think we should "play pragmatically" and "play for the draw". That's cowardly, and not even in the best interests of the team. After our romp of Honduras, the best thing would be to capitalize on the momentum and pick up 3 points over competition for that 3rd place spot.

 

It's a false dilemma. I think playing for the win is playing pragmatically, because we're better and they'll probably play reckless like Costa Rica out of vengeance. So if we're balanced, and set up to counter efficiently off their high pressure, we should pile up good chances. Nagbe will be key in this match. He can help us to play out of their challenges, cover distance off the dribble, and outlet. I could envision Jones also having a good game, against an opponent who plays in that fashion. Pulisic has the potential, but we've seen a mixed bag from him on the counter with the U.S. He can try to do too much off the dribble. I suppose you can make a case this may be another good match for him to play central because he'll have space and be able to get to the wings as a second striker. Youthful exuberance also won't be punished as much there. And maybe Jozy can come back behind him to receive the ball and then spring him.

 

Thanks for the post.

It's unlikely that Arena will start Beasley at right back tomorrow. In the past, Arena rarely -- if ever -- has started in an important match a player at a position at which the player had virtually no experience playing.

But the more important question to me is: Should Arena start Beasley at right back? It's a more important question, because trying to determine the answer to it is much more likely to bring about good action and important changes (than is trying to determine what Arena is likely to do).

Moreover, I do not think Arena should start Beasley at right back tomorrow. Zusi and Cameron are better options. Among other things, Beasley has no experience at right back; Zusi and Cameron do have experience there; and Zusi and Cameron are better tacklers than Beasley.

 

Agree with what you say. I don't expect Beasley to play right back either. The reasons against starting Bedoya at right back, however, are even greater. IF Arena were to take a chance like that, he most likely would want to do so with an experienced defender with a great deal of experience. Obviously Beasley fits those requirements.

That being said i think Cameron, especially, is the better option. We still have several center backs that can replace Brooks without having to move Cameron to the center. I believe Cameron is better at CB but he is more needed at RB.

 

Sticking to my guns. Howard; Cam, Gonzo, Besler, Beasley; Bradley, Jones; Bedoya, Pulisic, Nagbe; Altidore. 4-2-3-1. 4 changes: Besler, DMB, Jones, Bedoya.

 

What has Beasley done to deserve the start? Villafana was almost flawless last game. He looked like our most competent stay-at-home LB in years.

 

They're counting on us coming out all guns firing, though.

Also, the big advantage we had against Honduras is that we were at home = the referee showed a yellow when they took out Lletget. You can be in Honduras, there'd have been no card shown, and they'd have kept injuring our players.

Now we're away. So it's a lot more likely that rough play by Panama will go unsanctioned. And time wasting will be allowed. So the worst that could happen is them scoring a goal early, then rolling on the grass for 80 minutes.

 

From various reports, it sounds like Beasley is a lock for left back, which I disagree with. Give Villfana the chance to lock that down.

Cameron is much better centrally, whether its in defense or midfield, than he is at right back. But he'll likely start there.

Omar is not national team quality, but we're really thin here. He starts with Ream in the middle I suspect since he came on for Brooks. A great chance to solidify a role (backup) with the D.

I dont think Arena messes with the midfield too much. Bradley, Pulisic, Nagbe, Bedoya as we played Friday. A shame for Lleget because he showed promise. Bedoya works hard (as does a washing machine), but he adds no attacking flavor, inventiveness, or urgency.

Dempsey deep with Jozy up top.

Arena didn't bring Jones to sit, so I think he'll be the first sub. If we're losing, look for Kljestan to come on to help along with Wondo.

I think we need to attack all out. Who cares if we're away. I never understood the whole "away" disadvantage. It's a pitch with 11v11. Impose your game.

 

I cannot believe, given the combination of Villifana's relative competence and Beasley's being old and bad, that we're going to run Beasley out there tonight.

 

The back line against Honduras was Cam Gonzo Brooks Villafana.
There are a whole host of options tonight and the level of change from Friday:
Cam Gonzo Ream Villafana - only one change and how they finished
Cam Gonzo Besler Villafana - only one change and Gonzo and Belser have a long history paired in the middle
Cam Gonzo Ream Beasley - two changs although only one from the way they finished
Cam Gonzo Belser Beasley - two changes but again the historic central pairing
Zusi Cam Gonzo Villafana - one player change but two position changes
Zusi Cam Gonzo Beasley - two player changes and three position changes
Zusi Cam Besler Villfana - two player changes and three position changes
Zusi Cam Besler Beasley - three player changes and all four position changes

And there are lost of other combinations but I have not listed them here as I just think they are too far out there, for example anything starting Beasley or Bedoya at RB. The three bolded options seem the most likely to me for a number of reasons. The first highlighted option is how they finished. Yes, Panama is different than Honduras. Yes its a road game. But it is the least change. While you can argue that the back four was the weakest part of the game against Honduras and you can argue that Honduras had several blown chances, you can't argue that they back four DID pitch a shutout.

The second bolded back four is again a small change from Friday and has the advantage that Belser and Gonzo have had a lot of experience paired in the middle and a lot of success there. Besler is better physically to me than Ream and I would start him even though Ream has had more playing time the last several months than Besler.

The third bolded back four is actually what I would prefer tonight. I think Cam and Besler would be our strongest center back combination. And I like have more confidence in Zusi on the right and Cam in the middle than Gonzo.

Now all that said I won't be surprised at all to see the back four of Cam Gonzo Ream Beasley. I think Arena may favor Beasley's experience more so than the youth and abilty of Villafana. I could live with this but not what I would do. I am worried about Beasley's age and ability at this point in his career.

 

All the prognosticating at this point about who will fill in for whom is pretty worthless. How do we know how certain players are training, how certain players fit with others, etc? Defense particularly is rife with chemistry concerns and confidence. All I know right now is that more than ever I trust ol' Bruce to fit the right jigsaw piece into the puzzle and to get the guys to play for the shirt.

After only 3 matches, I'm so excited to see what's next for these guys. I love the front three of JA, CP and CD. Jozy seems to be able to fit well with those. two, something I'm not sure if Bobby Wood could do. When he does make it back, it will be nice to see how his pace will open more space for CD and CP, but will he distribute to CP and CD as well as Jozy did on Friday? I don't know. For CP, playing with BW will probably be more like playing with Auba at BVB, a guy who is singleminded in attack with the ball at his feel. He ain't passing, he ain't waiting, he's scoring. In either case, I think CP can do well, either as creator or finisher.

 

That isn't how they finished. Cameron was subbed out for Zusi. GZ played the last 34 minutes of the match.

 

Have to agree. Here's the quote from Grant Wahl's SI coverage of Arena's press conference:

"Arena also mentioned that he gave Villafaña and Sebastián Lletget their first U.S. qualifying starts at home on Friday partly because it would be easier to do that at home, giving the impression that Beasley might get the call at left back on Tuesday."

http://www.si.com/planet-futbol/2017/03/27/usa-panama-world-cup-qualifying-bruce-arena

First, this could be a mis-impression, from classic Arena mis-direction. Second, starting those guys at home in their initial WCQ was logical, so if you wanted one game out of Villafaña and one game out of Beasley, starting Villafaña at home makes sense.

But then, you watch the Honduras game and see how Villafaña performs. Nervous, hesitant, uncertain, deer-in-headlights, out-of-his-depth, etc.? Or not?

And then, you reassess the initial plan, integrating critical new information.

Unless there's something we're missing, Villafaña should start tonight v Panama.

++++++++++++++++++++

Edit: Goff has the same vibe.

"Short on depth at the outside back positions, Arena turned to him again when he assembled a broader roster for World Cup qualifiers. Villafaña played all 90 minutes against Honduras. Arena might turn to DaMarcus Beasley, a veteran of four World Cups and 33 qualifiers, for the away test against Panama on Tuesday."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...lly-televised-contest/?utm_term=.56139d156e14

 

Just listened to the Bruce interview on facebook. He stated there will obviously be at least 2 changes for Llegett and Brooks. And possibly up to 5, but this wont be deternmined until after the practice.

This is what I think he will do

--------------Jozy----------------------
Nagbe---Dempsey---Pulisic
-------Bradley--Jones------
Villa--Ream--Gonzo--Cam
-----------Howard--

Attack: this keeps the trio of Pulisic, Dempsey and Jozy on the field... Pulisic will need to do a little more defending, but he has shown at club he is capable. In attack these 3 should interchange at will. Nagbe will help with possession and draw attention to open space for the attacking 3.

Midfield:
Jones comes in for Bedoya but plays next to Bradley, but a little more advanced.

Defense:
He brought Ream in to replace Brooks, but the score was 6 - 0. Maybe he plays Besler here?

Basically, I think he will make minimal changes but instead of playing a 442 diamond I think he goes with a 451 (or 4 - 2 - 3 - 1) to start. Play a little more defensive to start with 5 back instead of 4, but in attack it could morph into a 442 diamond by moving a few guys forward like this...

------------Jozy----Pulisic (moves up)-----
-------------Dempsey--------------------------
Nagbe----------------Jones (moves up)---
---------------Bradley---------------------------
Villa------Ream--Gonzo-------Cameron
-----------------Howard--

Pulisic and Jones will be asked to do cover a lot of ground, but I think they are up for it.

 

A Ream - Gonzalez pairing really scares me. Unless Besler is hurt I'm hoping he starts next to Gonzalez if he must start because those to have played well together. I also haven't seen anyone mention Arriola. It's doubtful he gets minutes since he was a replacement but he can play anywhere along the right side even right back. I think I'd rather see him at right back than Zusi. I also wonder about a suffocating 4-3-3 formation with Bradley -Jones and either Dax or Acosta where all three eat up enormous ground yet also can spring into attack at any time. If the back line is shaky it may need more defensive bite in front of it. The good thing is there are a lot of different players around to use them in different ways. Offense can hinge on whether Dempsey can go again so soon, whether Klestjan takes his spot or Arena lets three run into space and the rest stay back mostly with a speedy trio of Jozy, Pulisic and Arriola.

 

FWIW, I don't think the 6-0 drubbing confirms that Arena has done a better job than Jurgen. Beating Honduras at home - by any margin - is not an apples-to-apples comparison to losing to Mexico or Costa Rica. We will need to see how the rest of the hex goes to have substantive evidence that Bruce has done better.

That said, Jurgen had to go regardless and had worn out his welcome. There was no one happier than me to see him leave.

 

Just because Jeurgen wouldn't play you doesn't mean Arena will. Sorry, couldn't resist with your name and icon.

 

While your general point may be fair, I don't recall this ref being biased against us in any of the matches listed. So that's cause for relief.

Also, you figure there's less of a chance of a Mexican ref being on the take. He would be jeopardizing a lot of future job opportunities. His main job is reffing in LigaMX, not the St. Vincent and the Grenadines' Sunday League.

 

There was a 10 goal difference between the results against Honduras and Costa Rica, 7 Mexico (both were at home).

Of course, Jurgen wasn't just being evaluated on those matches either. He beat Honduras 1-0 in the '15 GC and was out-shot 16-5. That's a pretty 1:1 comparison. And that was one of the best results of that tourney. Also got out-shot 21-6 by Haiti in a 1-0 win. Out-shot 25-5 by Panama in a 2-1 loss. Lost to Jamaica 2-1. Jurgen's fateful set of matches was also preceded by a 2-0 loss at Guatemala. And the previous time we had faced Honduras in qualifying at home we beat them by 1. We lost to them on the road. So yes, that was a far superior result than Jurgen was ever producing, let alone in the recent year or two.

Your only fair point was that was a 1-game sample. Jurgen had individual good games, just not recently. If we lose tonight (thank God someone mentioned we play tonight, I thought it was tomorrow checking the guide on my tv) and honestly deserve it, well then the honeymoon is over. The dismissal of Jurgen still needed to happen, and should have a long time earlier, but it wouldn't be looking like Bruce was a huge upgrade, yet. If we get a result though, with the famous victory at home too, so far it was. Best I could envision with Jurgen is a close win at home and close loss on the road, especially with all this attrition, a fraction of which tended to sink his teams because he cultivated so little depth due to his player selection biases.

 

Yeah, I think we play for the win. We're definitely better than Panama and as I recall, their home field advantage isn't really as big of a deal as it is when we play in Costa Rica or Mexico. However, I'm a big proponent of the idea that playing for the win doesn't necessarily mean all out attack. And likewise, playing for a draw doesn't always mean bunkering for 90 minutes.

If I'm Panama, I come out guns blazing trying to get momentum on our side and hopefully snatch a goal early. I'm also probably going to foul and dive a lot, to disrupt the American's possession based play.

To counter this, I don't think you go all out at the beginning. You keep your cool, and play players with experience in these sort of situations who won't be caught off guard at the beginning.. As you reach the 20 minute mark, the game should settle down a bit and then you start to take over the game with our better quality players. I really don't think Panama can keep us from scoring for 90 minutes, but if they manage to get a goal early they certainly can keep us from scoring twice. The last thing we want is to give up an early goal and deal with a central american team bunkering all game in CONCACAF.

So Jones is a definite starter in my opinion. Plenty of experience in these sorts of games, knows how to be physical without stepping over the line. I'd start Besler instead of Ream as well, due to experience. Beasley or Villafana is a tougher choice that I'll refrain from making a call on.. Dempsey still should start in my opinion; he has experience in games like this and I expect he'll win FKs for us early and often.

----------Altidore----------
Nagbe-Dempsey-Pulisic
-----Jones-----Bradley-----
Beasley/VF-Besler-Gonzalez-Cameron

Let Pulisic terrorize the right side, and he'll open up space in the center for Jones/Bradley/Nagbe to exploit. Altidore and Dempsey just get on the end of things. With the right side pinned back, I would expect any counters to come from our left. So we play Jones on that side as I trust him more than Bradley to prevent a fast break. I really don't think we need much of a complicated gameplan on offense; Panama should be completely outmatched. No reason to overthink it.

If we're up, put in Bedoya for Dempsey and shift the MF around a bit. If we're down, put in Kljestan for Jones. Potentially put in Zusi for Besler/Gonzalez as well, and move Cameron to CB. Zusi then goes forward a lot almost as a RM to send in crosses on a bunkering Panama (Pulisic moving further inward of course).

 

Here's the last Panama home game back in November against Mexico.


They ceded possession but had the most and best chances. Their counter is very good and goes through the middle.

IMO, we need our strongest available central pairing to handle the counter and Blas Perez. We also need a DM and fullbacks who can go forward but have the wheels to recover. It would also be nice to have a good press up top that cuts off their transition. If we cut off their transition and then counter from a forward position we might find more space. Otherwise, set pieces will be a battlefield.

 

Hoping for an Acosta sighting this game.

 

Ream - Gonzalez, on the road... yeah not good.

 

If Arena can make a comeback, so can I pal.