The YBTD Pro/Rel Thread, Part 9,614

That's the real rub here. If the system encourages every owner to do everything possible and 100% of teams are doing their best, then good teams go down off of bad luck or injuries or something like that. The other thing, it encourages panic decisions and living beyond means.

 

The real blocker to pro/real isn't the old school teams. It's those who paid 40-150 million just to join.

 

Too bad nobody has thought about these facts or has tried to explain to those thaaaaa ...

..... aaaa I can't keep a straight face

 

A few years back it was the EPL that was reportedly looking into this. Before that the A-League was looking at P&R. I'm not sure that any of this speculation really adds to the conversation here until one of these league actually pulls the trigger and actually makes a change one way or another and we can observe the results. Until then it's just speculation feeding speculation which leads to nowhere. I would like to see one league change their system, whether it's Liga MX, A-League; it would give us actual practical data on the comparative effects that such a change has on the nation's sporting culture, how it fares financially etc...

 

Would the Champions League start their competition free of pro/rel? Think about it they could have the top 16 money making clubs in the world with a bigger broadcasting contract to make serious money.

 

They'd do it in a heartbeat if they could convince the national federations to go along with it. Which won't happen unless the landscape is drastically different. Perhaps in decades, MLS (or perhaps CSL) becomes the most attractive league for players in general, but haven't passed up the European superclubs yet. Then national federations in Europe would take action to avoid being completely overshadowed. But that's decades away, if ever.

 

It kinda goes to my point; noone knows how the landscape will change, just that what it is today. Right now, I think that you won't see leagues that currently have P&R switch to a closed system just like MLS won't be going to P&R in the foreseeable future. But I think that either possibility exists in the long run and I mean decades from now and alot of that hinges on where we all are as a society and how economies develop. I don't think that it's out of the realm of possibility that Europe might someday go to a closed league, but a lot of things would have to happen to make that possible and palatable. As it stands, European football is pretty healthy as a whole, it's just that the money gets split alot more different ways than it does here. Spain's almost unfair TV split is almost the price that that league pays in order to keep it's two biggest attractions from bolting the league, (Kinda like how Formula 1 have always given Ferrari everything that they wanted because it's practically the only long-tenured & successful entity in that sport; they can only hope to hang onto Red Bull and Mercedes for near that long) but the league benefits from it as a whole.

But people underestimate the benefits that the big clubs in Europe get from the open system. While, for them, European competition represents the ultimate glory, their risk as far as the glamour of their individual brands is mitigated by the near guarantee that they'll be among the top contenders for domestic honors. Break away into a European league, and now someone has to be a loser. Can Man U take being a mid-level club? Even with parity measures, it just means that what their fans have come to expect with respect to yearly chances at silverware (even if it's a 2nd tier cup) is now meaningless. These clubs are already on par globally, but in a closed league they're all relegated to also-ran status. It may do more to hasten their demise vis-a-vis North American League football than stymie it. The glory-hunter status and global appeal is a part of their business model and it works well given their circumstances. I'm not sure that it's a sure-fire win for them.

 

That's why I stated in threads dedicated to that question the FA's and UEFA should simply call those club's bluff and tell them "Our way or there's the exit".

 

Wow. That article is almost word-for-word what I just posted. If it's that obvious to the both of us, you'd think that it would be for UEFA. I have no doubt that it is for the big clubs, no matter how many threats they make. The fact is, I have no doubt that Barca, Real (those two clubs have egos that are unreal), or even now Liepzig might have convinced themselves that they could make the jump and still remain atop the barrel by bullying that league in the manner that they bully their own, but there are alot of top level clubs who may talk big but do not want to risk protracted years of mediocrity.

Bottom line, the European Super League is Europe's version of NFL2LA.

 

Mexico wants to end pro/rel, looks to MLS for advice

According to Major League Soccer Vice President Charles Altchek, Liga MX President Enrique Bonilla met with MLS officials today to discuss ending the current system of promotion and relegation in Mexico. Altchek told a group gathered at the Philadelphia Union’s Academy campus in Wayne, Pennsylvania that this discussion would be held today in the MLS offices in New York City. Altchek and MLS Commissioner Don Garber were visiting the suburban Philadelphia campus to discuss the Union’s youth academy and made the remark to the gathered journalists and academy members.

 

Big clubs are people.

 

Sac Republic, FC Cincy, and Indy 11 to name the most prominent and successful. And all three are current applicants for MLS expansion but they won't all get in on the current round and possible not even upon reaching 28 teams. Sac Rep and FC Cincy's own management specifically stated that they've used possible MLS inclusion to drive up their attendances in order to attract MLS. Orlando, Minn U and others have all followed this same process which began, really, with how Phili Union supporters began trolling the league until they got a team.

Then Seattle got in on their USMNT ratings and decent support. Portland got in entirely based on support, along with subsequent efforts in Montreal and Vanc. Other markets who currently have bids in are busy trying to drum up attendance with their USL or NASL franchises. There are reports from Phoenix Rising and the San Antonio club that they are putting in efforts at raising attendance in order to strengthen their respective bids. So, yes, this has had a knock-on effect, whether it was MLS' intention or not. Now if Phoenix, SA, or Tampa as well as other future hopefuls like Okahoma Energy FC start all becoming as successful with their efforts as the three that I mentioned above who are currently knocking on the door, then some will inevitably be left dry.

The question becomes what happens to those fans then? Do they stick with the sport? If so, do they become franchise movement fodder the likes of which we see in the NFL where a name and a city only mean as much as the moment that that franchise is there? With how much work has been done in MLS to tie teams to fanbases and supporter groups as well as similar movements in lower leagues, I'd hate to see this happen because it would bastardize the beauty of what it means to be a supporter and a part of club culture. The Ultras moment would die as soon as teams started leap-frogging and traipsing about the country. That's why it was so important for the Dynamo to leave behind the history and franchise identity when they were moved. And Sac Rep fans let their opinions be known when they thought that their team was to be passed over for a new Sac team when the bid was announced. Seattle fans voted en masse to remain the Sounder by a near unanimous count. Portland fans were pissed when the team added a wordmark to the MLS crest. These things mean something to those fans and alot of the original fans whose teams have always been in MLS don't always get this. Fans are only now beginning to buy into the supporter culture, but it is not compatible to recyclable teams. I can only hope that MLS remembers this in the future.

As for what the future holds if D2 markets continue to strengthen while the prospects of MLS expansion remain open, one can only guess. It may give MLS something to think about. MLS has effectively locked up most of the truly major markets; most of the more successful D2 markets are in "second-tier" media markets that the league itself could do without. Could those markets angle to band together to form a potential D1 rival? Probably not if the USSF has anything to say for it, which they do and will. But that doesn't mean that 10 or so successful D2 teams couldn't branch out in search of national tv contracts with non-MLS aligned networks like NBC, get smaller sss' built and look to do what NASL tried to do, but only this time with stable teams and only in the interest of flat-out self preservation and sustainable growth of their businesses with MLS membership closed to them. This is probably whey Sac Rep will likely remain a strong favorite, I don't think MLS is looking forward to this eventuality and will try to avoid it if they can. But if the latter clubs that I mentioned are as successful in emulating the model put forth by the former,... don't hold your breath if, instead of a self-crippling NASL trying to lurch beyond it's weight to strike a salvo at MLS form it's flanks, you have a strong, well-supported D2 alternate league with a national tv deal full of clubs that were spurned by MLS for membership. Such an occurrence could be interesting to observe.

 

Solid ownership and a stadium plan are still the best ways to impress MLS. That's why we have Real Salt Lake and not any of the other 10 or so cities jockeying for expansion teams at the time.

 

Well, I can certainly see them going over 28. However it's the number 32 that will be telling. There's a reason that most leagues stop at 30 and the NFL will only consider going above 32 for special cases that truly expand their market like London, Toronto or Mexico City,... tv money. Splitting tv money more than they are now is a net negative since the idea is that, at this point, no American market is going to expand your tv footprint any further. So MLS would have to reel truly threatened to go above 32. And that depends on how well their possibly unintended effect of bolstering D2 sides plays out. And on how many non-existent teams they chose among the next 4 to 8 markets. This could all be moot if they choose existing side for the majority of expansion teams and you don't see too many more Sacs or Cincy's. But if by the time 32 rolls around and Raliegh and other markets have blown up with support trying to get into that last spot, then who knows... maybe 34 will be enticing.

 

One correction: Sac Republic didn't get big attendances on the basis of a push for MLS. The original intention was to run a USL club, and there was absolutely no talk of MLS until after the second 20k+ sellout at Hughes Stadium. What the MLS talk has done is allow the club to raise ticket prices to MLS levels without losing attendance, and to stop comping tickets entirely other than courtesy tickets for players' friends and family. Sure, talking about MLS has raised revenues, but the attendance would have been there regardless if the ticket prices had stayed at typical USL levels.

 

....if ad/sponsor revenue expand accordingly. Both at national and local level (heck even the international).

 

This is what I hope happens, and what I hope the NASL turns into instead of actively pushing to be D1. Focus on just creating a stable independent league. Maybe someday challenging for D1 status will present itself, but that will only happen if you first solidify yourself as a league as a whole.

 

I realize this is late in the thread (I just joined), but based on the original interview: I think we all knew that was going to be the answer, but some of us in smaller markets had delusions for some sort of light in the discussion. Unfortunately, I think that the minor/major league status of other sports carries over to soccer when it comes to public perception. The Fresno Grizzlies are never going to be "promoted" to be an MLB team, no matter how hard they play and how much they win; nor will the Iowa Wild ever take Minnesota's place in the NHL. The only hope a person in a small market has of seeing top-level competition in relation to their home team in pretty much any sport right now (aside from an occasional pre-season exhibition game) is watching their favorite players eventually move up, or having top-level players come back for rehab. I think changing the mindset of the majority of people to promotion/relegation is almost as big of a challenge as all the financial issues, at least until (hopefully) soccer becomes the biggest sport here. Many die-hard fans would understand, but I would be very curious to see how fans in the Bay Area would react if San Jose were suddenly relegated to the USL, much less Seattle...

 

I *do* think that "friendlies" and competitions like the the US Open Cup make our sport way more exciting for small markets than any other sport. In other sports, minor league teams *might* get to play their major league counterparts in an exhibition game once every 2-3 years. Even then, it's usually nothing but reserves, or maybe the starters play for the first couple innings/minutes. Many USL clubs get to see 1-2 MLS clubs per year, which is awesome and should continue (and even expand). Even if Fresno/Wilmington/Reno/etc never get an MLS team, having one come to their home field 1-2 times per year on a consistent basis would be great for those markets.