One view we could take is that, assuming Mexico beats Honduras, if we can go the next 180 minutes without conceding a goal we're on our way to the hex. In that view, it begins to look like a realistic possibility. Not counting the Mexico matches, we have only 3 goals against in our last 10.
Whether for good or for bad, Floro has the team set up to look for the 1-0 win. Defense first and score on the occasional opportunity that we can generate. I'm not a huge proponent of this approach but I'm not the NT coach. (I also detest short corners - what a waste!) Given that this is how we're playing, however, there are two points that give me some optimism going into Honduras. First, Honduras is not Mexico. Our defensive effort will be more stifling against them and we will get more chances against them than against the Mexicans. Second, we were getting chances against Mexico. Not a huge number but we could have easily scored at least twice in the home game alone. So it comes down to finishing on the couple of good chances we get instead of missing like we did against Mexico. As I wrote before, I'm not saying we will succeed in Honduras, but I can easily see a reasonable way that we can. So I'm looking forward to the game, not dreading it.
Well yeah, but I guess there was the hope that Honduras wouldn't get 4 points against El Salvador. Or that the goal difference v Mexico wouldn't have been so bad. If Canada could have kept that home game against Mexico close then a one-goal loss to Honduras would have kept them alive. Well, that's not quite true since there's no guarantee Mexico will beat Honduras. El Salvador will also pass Canada if they beat Mexico. But yeah... 6 points could very well be enough to advance.
The fewest points it is possible to advance with is 4. That would happen if three teams each had 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–16_UEFA_Champions_League#Group_E says that Barcelona had 14 points, AS Roma had 6 points, Bayer Leverkusen had 6 points, and BATE Borisov had 5 points. Because the tiebreaker was head-to-head, AS Roma (-5) won a tiebreaker over Bayer Leverkusen (+1). Out of the 80 groups in the last 10 UEFA Champions League Group Stages, 2 clubs have advanced with 6 points and the other 158 clubs that advanced had more than 6 points. Here is the unlikely way that Canada's group could have a 14-6-6-5 distribution: Matchday 5: Mexico (12 points to 13 points) draws with El Salvador (2 points to 3 points) Honduras (4 points to 5 points) draws with Canada (4 points to 5 points) Matchday 6: Mexico (13 points to 14 points) draws with Honduras (5 points to 6 points) El Salvador (3 points to 6 points) defeats Canada (5 points)
^it certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility that Canada would only earn 1 more point in this round...highly doubt they earn it via a draw in Honduras and a loss at home to ES though.
No surprise here. The El Salvador game on Sep. 6 will be in Vancouver. http://canadasoccer.com/canada-mnt-returns-to-vancouver-on-road-to-russia-p159348
We in Toronto can consider ourselves usurped! Can't say I blame the CSA, Vancouver has come up huge on this.
Canada MNT adds Uzbekistan match in June June 3 - vs Azerbaijan June 7 - vs Uzbekistan Sept 2 - @ Honduras Sept 6 - vs El Salvador
I was thinking this when I read about the friendlies.....would think that the CSA might use these friendlies against lower profile countries to play them in places where they are trying to test interest for their new/proposed/imagined league........Calgary, Winnipeg, Halifax? Quebec City? Smaller markets, smaller stadiums but places where there might be interest in seeing the national team.
What would the revenue vs fee charged be though? The fact that we keep playing all of these neutral site friendlies is evidence that the CSA doesn't have the money to bring in any country, regardless of size, on any regular basis. We've played just four home friendlies since 2010. Six in the past ten years. We haven't played a non-CONCACAF/CONMEBOL nation in Canada since 1999. The men's team wouldn't even go to Moncton back when they had grass. Of the countries you mentioned, only Winnipeg has even seen the women's team in recent years. I think all of those places need pro teams first before they get national team games.
I didn't realize Canada played so few home friendlies. In the last ten years, USA has played 82 friendlies, with 50 of them at home. In the last ten years, Canada has played 49 friendlies, with 8 of them at home, not 6 like you said. Here is the list of home friendlies from http://www.eloratings.net/Canada.htm September 4, 2006 vs. Jamaica September 12, 2007 vs. Costa Rica September 4, 2010 vs. Peru September 7, 2010 vs. Honduras June 1, 2011 vs. Ecuador June 3, 2012 vs. USA May 28, 2013 vs. Costa Rica September 9, 2014 vs. Jamaica
We have to admit, part of it is probably because not many countries are all that interested in playing us.
Partly true. Canada is not a big draw. On the flipside, neither are most of the 200+ FIFA registered countries. So if you aren't playing Germany or Brazil, you might just as well play Canada as you would anyone else. Based on past matches, I'd say NT tickets are at least $25 each. If we can draw 10 000 fans to a game, that gives a budget (ticket money only) of $250 000. Surely that's enough to work with to bring in random team X for a friendly. I don't think expecting 10 000 fans is a stretch, especially if fans in a city know they might not get to see the NT play live again for a couple of years.
Using the examples of the two upcoming friendlies.....it is not like we are travelling to their country and making their cost = $0. The matches (as a lot are) are being played in a neutral country....so aside from having to arrange that stadium, rent that stadium and pay for things like security and administrative "stuff"...the countries we are playing also have the cost of getting to Austria. Now I have never looked into the cost of flights from Azerbaijan or Uzbekistan and am fully willing to accept that those costs to matches in Austria might be cheaper than to, say, Quebec City......but I am willing to bet neither of those countries warrants an "appearance fee" so, to those countries, you are really only talking about the delta in costs between travelling to Austria and travelling to Canada. As for Canada, we still have to get our players to Austria anyway, and have to transport our North American based players and staff to Austria....so I bet our costs are very similar whether we play in Winnipeg or Austria. I don't think cost is the issue here. Not sure what is the issue (although I could speculate) but I just think it would be better if the matches were played in Canada to boost the profile of, both, the sport and CMNT in some of our other markets.
I've read before that third party promoters sometimes get involved in organizing our friendlies and that the CSA does get an appearance fee. I don't think that this is the case here so you could be right in that both countries will be going "dutch" on the bill. If we invite another country to come here, we would have almost certainly have to pay them a fee. I haven't found any place that cites this as mandatory but it does seem to be common place. SUM paid various fees, ranging from $100K to $1m during the previous cycle, to USMNT away opponents. Colombia paid Nigeria $120K plus travel expenses to play in Bogata in 2008. Zambia even got $1m to play Japan in a neutral site in 2014. So knowing all this, I think it's safe to say that it would be cheaper to go to Austria than it is to invite Azerbaijan/Uzbekistan to Winnipeg if we have to cover everything starting with their travel (aboard charters), their accommodations and stadium rental. What qualifies as "lower profile" though and what would be the cost of bring them in? Staying within CONCACAF, I'd say that Dominica and Belize were both lower profile and we saw the attendances for those games - and they were WCQ's too. Not so sure that other cities could've drawn more. Everyone would agree that we should play more home games but what is the best way to do it? Playing Peru in Toronto and Honduras in Montreal wasn't good for optics but it might have been the best way to any profit off those games.
http://www.concacaf.com/article/canada-names-squad-for-june-friendlies is titled "Canada names squad for June friendlies."
http://www.concacaf.com/article/canadas-petrasso-earns-first-cap-looks-to-future is titled "Canada’s Petrasso earns first cap, looks to future."
Well, Canada (93) beats Uzbekistan (66) 2:1. Makes me wonder if the Asian federation is weighted too much.
I'm still wondering how playing Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan in rural Austria is going to prepare us for Honduras away?