Perhaps time for a pulse check: We're nearing the end of Year 3 for the third professional women's soccer league in the US, the NWSL. How do we feel now about the prospects for professional women's soccer in America? Can it survive? Can it be sustained? Which answer best fits how you feel? Share your comments.
As long as the business model remains realistic and leads to profitability for the majority of the owners the league can be sustained for a long time. The only concern is the European leagues enticing more top players to play over there instead of the U.S.
There can be. Sustained is the key word. We're in the 3rd major league now. The problem has been not getting all of the components to the right mix. I doubt it will ever have the ability to throw money away like other leagues in the US, so it has to be done smartly. As far as I can tell, the NWSL is doing it (mostly) right. The salary issue is probably what will hurt the NWSL in the long run, but with increased interest (hopefully sustained) it may adjust in the future.
Things seem to be going well at the moment. The WC attendance bump doesn't seem to be tapering off, and sellout crowds in Seattle, Washington, and Boston have been treated to winning performaces in multi-goal games. The key, I think, is to attract (or incubate) a following among mainstream soccer fans beyond the teenage girls and their parents. If the product on the field continues to improve and the competitive balance continues, I can see this happening. For people who know what they're looking at it's already a really good value for the $.
(tee-hee!) Not me! I think the league has settled the question whether a pro league can stick around. Now they can always expand too fast or they can somehow lose control of their costs, but the league has shown that it could go on indefinitely, aided by the occasional boost from World Cups and Olympics, even if some of those attendance gains are temporary.
In its current state it depends on the USSF paying the salaries of the players and the front office. If they continue to subsidize it then it can go on indefinitely.
In this case, I think the salary issue is at the lower end rather than the top (for once). You can still attract top players into the league with the existing salary structure as long as USSF is supporting the NT pool players.
I don't recall if we had any polls asking a similar question over the last several years. Even though we're generally women's soccer fans here, it would be interesting to compare the optimism then vs now. At the moment, we have a 95% favorable rate, with a majority 56%% saying "yes" and another 39% leaning towards Yes. Importantly, that optimism seems to be felt in places that matter, for example there are at least a few more MLS clubs openly interested in having a NWSL franchise. I don't think this league is going away anytime soon. Also, even if it should make some missteps down the road, I don't think we have to worry about it killing the idea of a professional league for a generation. Look how quickly the NWSL emerged after the end of WPS. There has to be more confidence now that a league can be sustained by keeping the costs down. I guess you could say, as some remind us, that it depends on the USSF continuing to subsidize the salaries of the national team players. Even that may not be as big a worry. First, we see no signs of that changing. The Federation can see their plan is working and the alternative - long residency camps - hardly seems better. Second, with the growth in attendance - and the interest of more deep-pocketed investors - even if the Fed cut back on the subsidies (and they could cut back as opposed to eliminating altogether), the league looks increasingly able to handle that. I think we know, as much as we can know, that a league can be sustained. The question is can it grow into the league we envision - with improved stadiums, increased TV coverage, and growing player salaries helping keep better players on the field - and how soon can that happen?
The stadiums can be improved and expansion teams with MLS stadiums can be brought in but it will be very difficult to get good ratings for TV and growing player salaries to a decent level. The opening game got only 92k last night on Fox Sports 1. The biggest problem was promotion and advertisement. With the USWNT winning the world cup it was a great opportunity but the NWSL was not promoted enough. So much attention was on USWNT and both the players and the federation could have done many things to promote the league. There should have been a solid advertising campaign after the win to capitalize on the momentum. Mainstream media(Soccer sites like goal.com and newspapers) won't cover the league and it can't grow much without it. I feel both optimism and pessimism as to the future of this league. I think it can exist indefinitely but am very doubtful if it can thrive as in if players who don't play for the NT live on the NWSL salaries alone.
MLS averaged 142,000 on NBCSN in 2014 and that's after multiple years of promotion and decades of the league existing. So 92,000 isn't a bad start. The thing they have to do is get a reliable agreement set up before the season starts and stay on the same network for a couple years to try to build on those numbers. And maybe some day when NWSL teams control more of their own venues, they can do what MLS did this year which is have regular start times for the national broadcasts, which helps ratings a lot.
I think another question is, can teams continue to grow their attendance. On this, I think the signs are good and I've been very impressed with what virtually all of the teams have been able to do.
indeed.... ...was gonna say.... ...that's not bad soccer numbers if you look at the history of low mls numbers even on more widely distributed networks. and yet today they're getting millions of dollars and pesos to show the game. not saying the same thing will happen to the nwsl. just saying those numbers aren't bad numbers based on the history of pathetic mls soccer watching numbers. and so a similar thing can happen to the nwsl.
But for a similar thing to happen NWSL would need to promoted to that extent as well and that is unlikely to happen because if you want to promote something you have to believe that it will succeed and most networks don't give that kind of confidence to womens sports.
of course it's uphill. but they didn't give that kind of confidence to mls either. mls had to first pay to show their game, then show the networks and advertisers that they could put on a good enough product that deserved their $$. nwsl has to do the same thing. that's part of the reason why they're only showing the product in portland and houston. looking good is important. eventually the networks will pay them to show good looking entertainment content. that will allow them not to be able to pay the big stars 7 million/yr like mls does. but i believe they'll eventually be able to pay a few hundred thousand $$/yr so that promising players don't have to retire in their 20s.